Countries are often attracted to the idea of using secret diplomacy to sideline hardliners. That makes sense up to a point. But at some point moderates have to have enough authority within their systems for the hardliners to learn the truth & be unable to stop them.

My year-in-review article, examining India's 2025, is now out at Asian Survey journal. 2025 buffeted Modi's India with some of the most severe geopolitical & economic challenges of his long tenure as prime minister. Yet India perseveres despite global headwinds. online.ucpress.edu/as/article-a...

"This perusal of Iran’s options [in the face of Trump's blockade] should make it clear that if Tehran makes concessions, we should expect them soon. But if the coercive campaign drags on, U.S. hawks may underestimate Iran’s staying power," I argue.

One thing I've learned from war gaming over the years is that the other side gets to react. So my piece channeling that here: "Yes, Iran has options despite the U.S. blockade." In @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/yes-ira...

Kabul is running out of water and infrastructure projects that might alleviate the problem are long-delayed. apnews.com/article/afgh...

🚨🎧NEW episode of @chalkboardpolitics.bsky.social on the surprising global ramifications of the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, incl. Pakistan’s role in the US-Iran talks. A rich conversation w/ @niloufersiddiqui.bsky.social @sushantsingh.bsky.social & student team. goodauthority.org/news/how-did...

Trump "has made a catastrophic mess of this confrontation and appears to care only about his own self-image. That is, in the end, what makes this moment different from other moments of great-power recklessness..." writes @hbanai.bsky.social . newlinesmag.com/argument/the...

I was happy to host this conversation on the issues likely to confront the next generation of Indian leaders. Available wherever fine podcasts are streamed. (Search for “Asia Insight”.)

Degrading Iran’s drone and missile capabilities to the point they are not a meaningful threat may take longer than two more weeks. www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/p...

Minor methods point, but good example of how much an explicit "don't know" option can shift survey results on a question about which the respondent might not have thought very much about.

What is the best theory you've heard about why the Trump administration has relaxed (very modestly) the embargo on Cuba?

I hope the President knows (& is merely bullshitting here) that seizing Kharg Island doesn't actually seize Iran's oil. The island is fed by pipes from elsewhere in Iran that the Iranians will just turn off. Kharg Island is an embargo play. There are easier ways to embargo Iran.

For the last few months, I've been pleased to be a small part of a new @nbr.org project examining the foreign policy consequences of generational change in South & Southeast Asia. The first 2 essays by Bashir Ali Abbas & @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social are out now on India. www.nbr.org/program/trac...

I don't think it gets acknowledged enough how funny it is that Pam Bondi testifying that the rule of law wasn't a big deal since the Dow was over 50,000 is almost exactly when the Dow peaked and she inadvertently called the top.

There are about a dozen mines *that we know of.*

I keep seeing this framing like Bremmer's. It is wrong. Instead: 1. Iran was developing an ICBM when Khamenei imposed a 2,000-km range limit. 3. The programs shifted to space launch. 4. Khamenei lifted the restriction in October 2025 after the June attacks. 5. Now he's dead, and here we are.

Lord, let me never be so close to an incoming round that someone taking a picture of me can get a clear picture of the munition.

I think readers interested in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and US policy toward the region will want to stick around to the end of this conversation with Asfandyar Mir.

Yale Law class of 2016 questioning Yale Law class of 2009.

In general, I find, it is a good rule of thumb if you find yourself saying dialogue that could be in a movie script for a villain to perhaps reconsider one's rhetorical approach. The Secretary of Defense does not share my rule of thumb it appears.

NSF Update (Awards through 2/27/26) Directorates to follow 1/10

Pleased my article, "Hindu Nationalism, Akhand Bharat, and Foreign Perceptions of India," is now out in the journal Indian Politics & Policy (without a paywall). www.ippjournal.org/hindu-nation...

. @hbanai.bsky.social on what's next in Iran. "The question that will dominate moving ahead is not the one the administration has been asking... It is this: what comes after the Islamic Republic, and who decides?"

This is practically an endorsement of Iranian proliferation www.axios.com/2026/02/28/t...

“The prevailing grammar of anti-imperial critique has a habit of allowing the indictment of external aggression to crowd out the indictment of internal tyranny, as though the two were in competition rather than in parallel.“

I think it’s likely that the US military can bring about the downfall of the Islamic Republic. But to do so without any authorization to use military force from the US Congress is clearly a lawless act, contrary to every vision of national defense offered in the constitution.

Trump's stated war aims are... expansive.

This is the best discussion of dealing with SAMs I can recall appearing in the media in quite a while.

After I ask a student if their paper was written by AI.

BASIC's South Asia team is looking for a talented, mid-career candidate with regional expertise and past experience with project management, who would be able to work in the UK, Italy, or Germany. Here is the job post: basicint.org/vacancy-proj...

Pleased to have an opportunity to speak with Sad Dhume as he researched his most recent column on Indian military acquisitions in the face of a challenging Sino-Indian military balance. www.wsj.com/opinion/indi...

One thing notable as I consider this episode is that I am unaware of any Biden administration official—by name or on background—who has indicated the Trump admin is wrong about this event.

Good example of what the diffusion of commercial satellite imagery and other open source intelligence tools means for our understanding of the world. Clear documentation of a de facto US blockade of Cuba that appears to be working. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/w...

Deadline for paper/panel submission for the 1st ever @isanet.bsky.social conference in South Asia has been extended (March 2)! And we are working on resolving the technical problems with submission asap. More on the conference 👇

Great opportunity to join @ssp-mit.bsky.social and conduct research on China's foreign and security policies!

Interested in reading about alleged Chinese nuclear testing and the ability to detect such testing? This is good and you should read it.

Today's a good day to revisit Stephan and Chenowith (here their 2008 article). www.belfercenter.org/sites/defaul...

"The emerging global system is one in which three nuclear-armed leaders, insulated from dissent, pursue risky gambits. The result will not be the relatively stable if tense competition that characterized the Cold War. It will be something more volatile..." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

This looks and sounds like a letter read aloud in a Wes Anderson movie by one of his precocious boys or broken men

Forthcoming, co-edited with Sameer Lalwani, at Georgetown University Press. (Thanks to generous support from @stimsoncenter.bsky.social and the Smith Richardson Foundation.)

Happy to announce the 1st ever @isanet.bsky.social conference in South Asia in August 2026. Hosted in Colombo, Sri Lanka, we welcome proposals from scholars based in and/or studying South Asian politics & international relations, but also broader global themes ofc www.isanet.org/Conferences/...

It's increasingly difficult to explain many of Trump's foreign policy endeavors without turning to either variables of personal financial gain or Trump's individual status concerns. Goddard and Newell's neo-royalism offers a framework that I found useful.

I've been cleaning data all week that involves merging similar but not identical questions across many datasets. A human RA did a lot of work but made a variety of small but consequential errors, which LLMs helped catch. Now the LLMs are making small but consequential errors.

Trump plans to pull the U.S. out of dozens of organizations. In our latest "Good Chat" with @claryc.bsky.social, Brian Greenhill discusses the impact of this move – and how Americans see international organizations. goodauthority.org/news/trump-p...

Happy to listen and learn from Brian Greenhill on Trump's withdrawal from dozens of international organizations last week, @goodauth.bsky.social . Part of what Brian calls the liberal international order's "moment of crisis." goodauthority.org/news/trump-p...

Writing for @goodauth.bsky.social , @hbanai.bsky.social examines how the "structural polycrisis" in Iran "where economic, environmental, and geopolitical failures reinforce one another" may be "pushing the social contract toward a terminal rupture." goodauthority.org/news/why-the...

I’ve learned much from @jeffcolgan.bsky.social over the years and his take on Trump’s Venezuela antics is well worth reading. goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...

Is there an article or book chapter on tariff or trade politics that you find especially apt for the Trump era that would be appropriate for a first-year undergrad course? I already assign "Weaponized Interdependence".

I wrote about the violence reaching the capital of Mali @goodauth.bsky.social - Peacebuilding failed - This doesn’t mean all interventions are doomed, just under some conditions (even in Mali!) - Not too late for international community to think creatively about helping civilians in Mali