NSF Update (Awards through 2/27/26) Directorates to follow 1/10

Pleased my article, "Hindu Nationalism, Akhand Bharat, and Foreign Perceptions of India," is now out in the journal Indian Politics & Policy (without a paywall). www.ippjournal.org/hindu-nation...

. @hbanai.bsky.social on what's next in Iran. "The question that will dominate moving ahead is not the one the administration has been asking... It is this: what comes after the Islamic Republic, and who decides?"

This is practically an endorsement of Iranian proliferation www.axios.com/2026/02/28/t...

“The prevailing grammar of anti-imperial critique has a habit of allowing the indictment of external aggression to crowd out the indictment of internal tyranny, as though the two were in competition rather than in parallel.“

I think it’s likely that the US military can bring about the downfall of the Islamic Republic. But to do so without any authorization to use military force from the US Congress is clearly a lawless act, contrary to every vision of national defense offered in the constitution.

Trump's stated war aims are... expansive.

This is the best discussion of dealing with SAMs I can recall appearing in the media in quite a while.

After I ask a student if their paper was written by AI.

BASIC's South Asia team is looking for a talented, mid-career candidate with regional expertise and past experience with project management, who would be able to work in the UK, Italy, or Germany. Here is the job post: basicint.org/vacancy-proj...

Pleased to have an opportunity to speak with Sad Dhume as he researched his most recent column on Indian military acquisitions in the face of a challenging Sino-Indian military balance. www.wsj.com/opinion/indi...

One thing notable as I consider this episode is that I am unaware of any Biden administration official—by name or on background—who has indicated the Trump admin is wrong about this event.

Good example of what the diffusion of commercial satellite imagery and other open source intelligence tools means for our understanding of the world. Clear documentation of a de facto US blockade of Cuba that appears to be working. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/w...

Deadline for paper/panel submission for the 1st ever @isanet.bsky.social conference in South Asia has been extended (March 2)! And we are working on resolving the technical problems with submission asap. More on the conference 👇

Great opportunity to join @ssp-mit.bsky.social and conduct research on China's foreign and security policies!

Interested in reading about alleged Chinese nuclear testing and the ability to detect such testing? This is good and you should read it.

Today's a good day to revisit Stephan and Chenowith (here their 2008 article). www.belfercenter.org/sites/defaul...

"The emerging global system is one in which three nuclear-armed leaders, insulated from dissent, pursue risky gambits. The result will not be the relatively stable if tense competition that characterized the Cold War. It will be something more volatile..." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

This looks and sounds like a letter read aloud in a Wes Anderson movie by one of his precocious boys or broken men

Forthcoming, co-edited with Sameer Lalwani, at Georgetown University Press. (Thanks to generous support from @stimsoncenter.bsky.social and the Smith Richardson Foundation.)

Happy to announce the 1st ever @isanet.bsky.social conference in South Asia in August 2026. Hosted in Colombo, Sri Lanka, we welcome proposals from scholars based in and/or studying South Asian politics & international relations, but also broader global themes ofc www.isanet.org/Conferences/...

It's increasingly difficult to explain many of Trump's foreign policy endeavors without turning to either variables of personal financial gain or Trump's individual status concerns. Goddard and Newell's neo-royalism offers a framework that I found useful.

I've been cleaning data all week that involves merging similar but not identical questions across many datasets. A human RA did a lot of work but made a variety of small but consequential errors, which LLMs helped catch. Now the LLMs are making small but consequential errors.

Trump plans to pull the U.S. out of dozens of organizations. In our latest "Good Chat" with @claryc.bsky.social, Brian Greenhill discusses the impact of this move – and how Americans see international organizations. goodauthority.org/news/trump-p...

Happy to listen and learn from Brian Greenhill on Trump's withdrawal from dozens of international organizations last week, @goodauth.bsky.social . Part of what Brian calls the liberal international order's "moment of crisis." goodauthority.org/news/trump-p...

Writing for @goodauth.bsky.social , @hbanai.bsky.social examines how the "structural polycrisis" in Iran "where economic, environmental, and geopolitical failures reinforce one another" may be "pushing the social contract toward a terminal rupture." goodauthority.org/news/why-the...

I’ve learned much from @jeffcolgan.bsky.social over the years and his take on Trump’s Venezuela antics is well worth reading. goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...

Is there an article or book chapter on tariff or trade politics that you find especially apt for the Trump era that would be appropriate for a first-year undergrad course? I already assign "Weaponized Interdependence".

I wrote about the violence reaching the capital of Mali @goodauth.bsky.social - Peacebuilding failed - This doesn’t mean all interventions are doomed, just under some conditions (even in Mali!) - Not too late for international community to think creatively about helping civilians in Mali

Mali's Islamist siege, explained by @wnomikos.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/mali-is...

Pleased to have a chance to talk to Asfandyar Mir about recent Pakistan-Afghanistan clashes for @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/pakista...

How does the new H1B executive order affect universities, which had a non-capped limit on H1Bs under the prior system (vs a lottery for for-profit corporations)?

We might need to tweak a few things given an eventful several months, but pleased to announce Sameer Lalwani & my co-edited volume on Pakistani strategic debates is now forthcoming at @georgetownup.bsky.social . Thanks to @stimsoncenter.bsky.social & Smith Richardson Foundation for the support.

At @goodauth.bsky.social we thought it would be helpful to ask peacekeeping experts about peacekeeping proposals for Ukraine. Thanks to @wnomikos.bsky.social and Joshua Zhang for their insightful essay! goodauthority.org/news/rethink...

I still have free eprints available for my article, "Is India underbalancing China?" I argue that it is hard to understand why India has been willing to make tangible concessions in its post-2020 bargaining with China except by looking at the military balance. www.tandfonline.com/eprint/CWRUD...

Time to put @jrovner.bsky.social 's book back on syllabi, if it wasn't there already.

A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon…

Some thoughts on regime change in Iran (less-ish relevant now, but who knows) indianexpress.com/article/opin...

Christensen and Snyder 1990?

This is a perfectly interesting little ethical topic, but I can't possibly understand why my human subjects training needs to talk about it before I can get permission to conduct a public opinion survey.

I'll believe AGI is here when the MS Word numbering/outlining feature works predictably.

When I teach about intelligence problems, for years I’ve drawn on Prof. Rovner’s book, Fixing the Facts. So when I saw news stories about potential intelligence politicization, I knew exactly who I wanted to ask about it.

This article by Raag Yadava on the Indus Waters Treaty is worth your time. One small excerpt on the China angle. www.theindiaforum.in/internationa...

For me the big takeaway is that India's ability to strike Pakistan at range has been greatly enhanced by recent acquisitions of missiles, guided bombs, and anti-air systems. That will worry Rawalpindi, and clearly did during the crisis, perhaps explaining the resort to ballistic missiles.

A little over 6 years ago, Vipin Narang & I argued that better intelligence capabilities, more precise conventional and dual-use delivery vehicles, & improving air and missile defenses were combining to create “counterforce temptations” in the Indian system. direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center @stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...

“Are you afraid of ideologies?” “A little bit,” the witness answers. A pause. “Or even a lot.” www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

“My view is that any time two nuclear-armed states start exchanging ordnance, the risk of nuclear war has increased over the pre-crisis baseline in some immeasurable manner: This is because of the essentially unpredictable character of warfare.” Well said, @nktpnd.bsky.social

ChatGPT is pretty good at making a footnote in the appropriate style if you just give it a website URL to draw info from, but about 25% of the time it just makes stuff, sometimes little things, sometimes big things (changes titles etc) in the citation text. Which seems less than ideal.

Pleased to have a chance to chat with @nktpnd.bsky.social about last week’s crisis.