Pleased to have a chance to talk to Asfandyar Mir about recent Pakistan-Afghanistan clashes for @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/pakista...

How does the new H1B executive order affect universities, which had a non-capped limit on H1Bs under the prior system (vs a lottery for for-profit corporations)?

We might need to tweak a few things given an eventful several months, but pleased to announce Sameer Lalwani & my co-edited volume on Pakistani strategic debates is now forthcoming at @georgetownup.bsky.social . Thanks to @stimsoncenter.bsky.social & Smith Richardson Foundation for the support.

At @goodauth.bsky.social we thought it would be helpful to ask peacekeeping experts about peacekeeping proposals for Ukraine. Thanks to @wnomikos.bsky.social and Joshua Zhang for their insightful essay! goodauthority.org/news/rethink...

I still have free eprints available for my article, "Is India underbalancing China?" I argue that it is hard to understand why India has been willing to make tangible concessions in its post-2020 bargaining with China except by looking at the military balance. www.tandfonline.com/eprint/CWRUD...

Time to put @jrovner.bsky.social 's book back on syllabi, if it wasn't there already.

A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon…

Some thoughts on regime change in Iran (less-ish relevant now, but who knows) indianexpress.com/article/opin...

Christensen and Snyder 1990?

This is a perfectly interesting little ethical topic, but I can't possibly understand why my human subjects training needs to talk about it before I can get permission to conduct a public opinion survey.

I'll believe AGI is here when the MS Word numbering/outlining feature works predictably.

When I teach about intelligence problems, for years I’ve drawn on Prof. Rovner’s book, Fixing the Facts. So when I saw news stories about potential intelligence politicization, I knew exactly who I wanted to ask about it.

This article by Raag Yadava on the Indus Waters Treaty is worth your time. One small excerpt on the China angle. www.theindiaforum.in/internationa...

For me the big takeaway is that India's ability to strike Pakistan at range has been greatly enhanced by recent acquisitions of missiles, guided bombs, and anti-air systems. That will worry Rawalpindi, and clearly did during the crisis, perhaps explaining the resort to ballistic missiles.

A little over 6 years ago, Vipin Narang & I argued that better intelligence capabilities, more precise conventional and dual-use delivery vehicles, & improving air and missile defenses were combining to create “counterforce temptations” in the Indian system. direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center @stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...

“Are you afraid of ideologies?” “A little bit,” the witness answers. A pause. “Or even a lot.” www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

“My view is that any time two nuclear-armed states start exchanging ordnance, the risk of nuclear war has increased over the pre-crisis baseline in some immeasurable manner: This is because of the essentially unpredictable character of warfare.” Well said, @nktpnd.bsky.social

ChatGPT is pretty good at making a footnote in the appropriate style if you just give it a website URL to draw info from, but about 25% of the time it just makes stuff, sometimes little things, sometimes big things (changes titles etc) in the citation text. Which seems less than ideal.

Pleased to have a chance to chat with @nktpnd.bsky.social about last week’s crisis.

My article from Sunday's Times of India on this new era in the India-Pakistan rivalry.

My chart of subjective conflict risks in South Asia over the last 40 years or so.

I was really pleased to have a chance to talk to @gavinesler.bsky.social about the origins of the current crisis and where we might be headed.

“Attacks on cities by military drones have never occurred in the India-Pakistan rivalry,” says @claryc.bsky.social “The old rules have been thrown out the window” | on.ft.com/4m7Ik3A via @financialtimes.com

Fascinating conversation about India - Pakistan and Kashmir as a flashpoint for big power rivalry with Professor Chris Clary @claryc.bsky.social

Quite a big claim from Reuters. "four local government sources in Indian Kashmir told Reuters that three fighter jets had crashed in separate areas of the Himalayan region during the night. All three pilots had been hospitalised, the sources added" www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

I’ll have to go back and revise the table. 15 days.

I’m pleased to have had an opportunity to contribute to this edited volume ably pulled together by Zachary Davis assessing the legacy of track-1.5 and track-2 initiatives for the US-India, US-Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relationships. cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/f...

The stand-off precision strike revolution is new. We don't have a huge dataset of what normal looks like in these tit-for-tat struggles. But based on the limited dataset that we do have, we are not out of the woods yet—and arguably are in the most dangerous part of the woods.

I’m sure Trump’s sixth national security advisor will be the charm!

Don’t sleep on this, read @claryc.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social on the India-Pakistan crisis goodauthority.org/news/why-the...

I was happy to talk to Zia ur Rehman of the New York Times as he reported on what we know about Pakistani support for terrorism and militancy in Kashmir. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/w...

Dangerous days ahead in the subcontinent. I'm quite worried. My piece for @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/why-the...

What I'm worried/thinking about today regarding developments in India and Pakistan.

There are no US ambos in Pakistan or India (chargés in both). They report to assistant secy for South & Central Asia who has been nominated, but unconfirmed. He reports to under secretary for political affairs, also nominated but unconfirmed. DepSecState seems nice though.

I've now re-posted a copy of my report for USIP last year on the 2021 Line of Control ceasefire. That 2021 ceasefire may also be a victim of yesterday's terror attack in Kashmir. (The USIP website was taken down along with USIP's demise.) www.christopherorenclary.com/uploads/3/9/...

I suspect we are about to learn whether India has gotten better at standoff air strikes in the last six years since Balakot. (Though ending the 2021 ceasefire along the Line of Control in Kashmir might be a less escalatory option.)

“It’s rare that in retrospect US foreign policy failures turn out to be the result of listening too carefully to area specialists.”

In the last couple of years I've become increasingly worried India is not doing enough to deter China and to prepare to defeat China in a war if deterrence fails. I present my concerns in a new journal article out today in the Journal of Strategic Studies. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

There's a lot going on in the world, but if you want my summary of the year that was in 2024 for India, it is available here (for free for the next 30 days). online.ucpress.edu/as/article/6...

New piece out in @foreignaffairs.com by @marksbell.bsky.social and me. We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma. Access the full piece via this link: www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europ... Short summary below: 1/x

USIP had amassed quite exceptional talent in several areas. I hope many can find a good home at other think tanks--it's a fire sale on talent now and a chance to create a team that will help America re-build in better times. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/29/u...

The Signal scandal brought the knives out for Waltz, but before the inauguration, @claryc.bsky.social predicted in @goodauth.bsky.social that it would be policy differences with Trump that might leave Waltz on thin ice: goodauthority.org/news/how-mic...

Really good paragraph from Chris Twomey (in a 2021 volume) on how to think about the Chinese no-first-use (NFU) nuclear pledge. (Much of the same language applies to other NFUs).

A look at Pakistan's no good, very bad year thus far. (Spoiler: Pakistan's relapse into low-level war continues to escalate.) goodauthority.org/news/pakista...

You gotta kill 1.2 million kids to give a tax cut to Tesla. Its called ordo amoris.

I'd be curious to see some reporting about whether members of the U.S. military think that it'll be hard to keep officers and enlisted from transmitting sensitive material over Signal given the fact that Cabinet-level officials are saying its fine.

The Trump administration's (1) extended deterrence policy toward allies, (2) its pursuit of Golden Dome, and (3) its likely support of nuclear modernization (& likely nuclear expansion) don't really make sense together. (3) & probably (2) make sense if you care a lot about (1).

It’s hardly the worst thing about this episode but snatching a Muslim off the street right before iftar during Ramadan is a way to make sure you get a person who is very hungry and thirsty from a full day of fasting.