Project on Managing the Atom (@managingtheatom.bsky.social)

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social argues that New START’s expiration won’t trigger a Cold War–style arms race, but rather a quieter shift toward warhead “uploading,” nonstrategic expansion, and greater nuclear ambiguity in a trilateral U.S.–Russia–China landscape. theins.ru/en/opinion/n...

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Nuclear breakdown: How the end of the New START treaty will affect the arms race between Russia and the U.S. In early February, the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms between the United States and Russia (better known as New START) expired, and no new agreement has been reached to take its place. However, a Cold War-style arms race appears unlikely, as Russia does not have the necessary resources for the mass production of new strategic weapons, argues nuclear policy expert Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at the Center for International Studies (CERI) at Sciences Po in Paris. In her view, a more likely future scenario involves Russia increasing the number of warheads on systems already in its arsenal while expanding production of nonstrategic weapons. The end of mutual inspections provided for under New START creates new opportunities to pursue such projects, even if Russia's coffers have been depleted by the war in Ukraine. China, however, does have the resources, and its nuclear program offers new causes for concern. https://theins.ru/en/opinion/nicole-grajewski/289853