How effective is it when states claim they “didn’t do it”? Deniability is a common phenomenon in the gray zone. States can make aggression plausibly or implausibly deniable through combinations of transparent or obfuscating actors or means. In new research, we show how this affects escalation. 1/4

@politicsoxford.bsky.social’s @laurensukin.bsky.social has co-authored a paper in Security Studies arguing that denials — or hiding state responsibility in conflict (e.g. through cyberattacks or proxy groups) — make escalation more likely, but also more limited: https://tinyurl.com/34fpxur9

In a new International Studies Quarterly article, alongside Helen Webley-Brown, CISAC affiliate @laurensukin.bsky.social reveals how U.S. political divisions at home are eroding global trust in America’s nuclear credibility, no matter which party is in power. academic.oup.com/isq/article/...

The Trump administration—including by its recent criticism of NATO—has put US credibility under threat. A key question looking forward is: How recoverable might the US reputation be? (1/4)

Our new (open access) paper investigates weapons aversion across systems. We comprehensively compare attitudes about the use of cyber, conventional, cluster, chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, showing a clear preference hierarchy and lending insight into the underlying causes of aversion.

Piece w/ @laurensukin.bsky.social & @lanoszka.bsky.social out in Apr. 2026 issue of Journal of Conflict Resolution. We surveyed publics in 24 countries in 2023: Calibrated US restraint/support for Kyiv was reassuring. Strong resolve isn't the only thing that can reassure. doi.org/10.1177/0022...

Consider applying to join Nuffield College and the Department of Politics and International Relations at Oxford as an associate professor in IR. This excellent post is for a non-tutorial fellowship (very little undergrad teaching). Please feel free to reach out with any questions. lnkd.in/eR6qBDNb.

Are deterrence and disarmament compatible? In a new paper with @jluisrodriguez.com & @herzogsm.bsky.social, we question the common deterrence-disarmament divide. With a survey of nuclear attitudes, we show publics around the world simultaneously support both policies. tinyurl.com/5cbf76cx

1/5 Great news! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is now #OpenAccess so that everyone can read it online. Thanks to generous support from @mitpress.bsky.social Direct to Open (D20). @managingtheatom.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social Check it out here: doi.org/10.7551/mitp...

Please help spread the word on this, especially to those who may be feeling cold winds towards their research. We’ve opened the call for our International Fellowships, enabling early career researchers to work for two years at a UK research institution www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...

1/7 It's book publication day! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is out now from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series. Contents and discount codes below. @managingtheatom.bsky.social mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...

Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social. Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence. doi.org/10.1017/eis....

The old nuclear rulebook is out of date. From China's growing arsenal to a "crisis of faith" in US alliances, the world is facing a new, more complex nuclear landscape. Our discussion on all this and more with @laurensukin.bsky.social and Nicola Leveringhaus: tnsr.org/horns-of-a-d...

1/5 In @foreignpolicy.com, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, and I provide analysis on how publics around the world viewed the Biden administration's extensive but restricted military aid to Ukraine in 2022-2023. foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/u...

💥 "Navigating the New Nuclear Map" 💥 The nuclear landscape is more complex than ever. Our multi-author roundtable chaired by @laurensukin.bsky.social and @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social explores the evolving challenges, from Asia to Europe and the Middle East. 🌍⚛️ tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

How are alliances like AUKUS and cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea reshaping the nuclear order? @laurensukin.bsky.social and @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social introduce the essays and explore the effects of domestic politics and global competition. 📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

At War on the Rocks, Gregory Winger, @drmagomez.bsky.social, and I show that, while the Trump administration has been supportive of U.S. Indo-Pacific partners in rhetoric, it has been neglectful of the personnel and mechanisms that sustain alliances. warontherocks.com/2025/09/wash...

WARNING: An email account—“[email protected]”—has been created by the North Korean group Kimsuky to impersonate me. Please delete any emails you receive from this account. While it will soon be closed down, they are likely to create alternates.

Now out open access in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, & I investigate US reassurance efforts in 2023 during Russia's war on Ukraine. We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

In a new article for the Journal of Conflict Resolution, CISAC affiliate @laurensukin.bsky.social & colleagues examine data from 24 countries finding early support for the US in the Russo-Ukrainian war came largely from approval of its restrained aid to Ukraine journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

As great power competition in the Indo-Pacific intensifies, U.S. commitments to regional partners is under scrutiny. Our new article with @ghwinger.bsky.social & @laurensukin.bsky.social explores how the American public reacts to potential security crises. ⬇️ www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

As Washington turns the screws on trade policy and burden-sharing against even its closest allies, Gregory Winger, Miguel Alberto Gomez, and I have a new article out at Contemporary Security Policy on alliance dynamics and the willingness to aid partners during crises. Here are three key takeaways:

Seoul wants the bomb, China and North Korea are piling up warheads. What role should U.S. nuclear weapons play in Asia? Sam Seitz and I tackle this question in a new article at the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament. Read our open access article here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

To show resolve or restraint? That is the question for great powers facing major global crises. In a newly published paper, CISAC affiliate @laurensukin.bsky.social & Alexander Lanoszka show the benefits of restraint for reassuring allies during crises. Open access ⤵️ doi.org/10.1093/isq/...

Had a great conversation with APLN last night on managing US extended deterrence in East Asia. You know it was good when the conference ended at 1am and you’re still thinking about it when you wake up! I love it when my job is talking about interesting problems with interesting people.

Does the US need more nuclear weapons to face the “two-peer problem” posed by Russia’s and China’s nuclear arsenals? I revisit the nuclear superiority lit in my latest for Carnegie Endowment & argue this approach “is unlikely to be helpful” in the current geopolitical environment. t.co/fTCGpH9BeI

Honored to receive this award from the Army Strategist Association for my work with Katie Hedgecock on attribution and retaliation to cyber attacks. Read our JCR article here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1....

It was a pleasure to speak at this year’s NATO nuclear policy forum! I discussed my recent research on Russian and North Korean nuclear threats, which you can read about here: carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/04/r....

Why does the US struggle to deter North Korea? What should we make of KJU’s visit to Russia? What role does China play in the Korean Peninsula? We discuss these questions and more in the latest edition of The Focus Podcast: sageinternational.com.au/video/u-s-st...

Goodbye, CISAC! It was great to be back at Stanford for an excellent conversation about law, ethics, and nuclear weapons.

Are bigger nuclear arsenals really better? Nuclear superiority makes states less likely to accomplish their goals during crises against adversaries that have much smaller arsenals. Read more in the new edition of Security Studies: doi.org/10.1080/0963...