Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
📤 7937
📥 421
📝 881
PRC and DPRK strategic forces analyst with CNA. BA Reed College, MA Middlebury Institute. NSF GRFP.
I really do think we need some sort of disparaging term for people whose only interaction with fiction is Weir and qntm.
2 days ago
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My latest in FP, on how Iranian deterrence has collapsed over the last two years:
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/24/i...
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How Iran’s Deterrence Collapsed Ahead of the War
A key failure in 2024 paved the way for U.S. and Israeli attacks.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/24/iran-israel-us-war-missile-nuclear-weapons-deterrence/
8 days ago
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reposted by
Decker Eveleth
Aaron Stein
27 days ago
Experts from the
@fpri.bsky.social
analyze the latest military developments from the Third Gulf War
@slair.bsky.social
@dexeve.bsky.social
@michaelbpetersen.bsky.social
@salisbot.bsky.social
& Guy Plopsky
www.fpri.org/article/2026...
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FPRI Experts React | Understanding the Third Gulf War - Foreign Policy Research Institute
The third Gulf War began with an assassination on February 28, 2026, in broad daylight in central Iran. The war has engulfed the region in conflict, extending
https://www.fpri.org/article/2026/03/fpri-experts-react-understanding-the-third-gulf-war/
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Drone launches are down for the same reason missile launches are down. Its a posture issue. You can have the biggest drone arsenal in the world but if your forces aren't postured to effectively continue operations under fire, eventually you won't have the capability to use them
26 days ago
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An update on how the Iranians are fairing. We're seeing lots of hits on stationary abandoned launchers, which implies either a high missile failure rate or Iranian crews are simply abandoning launchers after firing.
29 days ago
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Unlike the 12 Day War in which Iran used a certain segment of its missile force to retaliate in distinguishable waves, this is complete chaos. Many missiles across many fronts, potentially with units acting without centralized authority.
about 1 month ago
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Some really interesting questions now arise. I don't recall something like this ever happening in the precision munitions era: how do you handle regime transition when your adversary can track and eliminate leadership targets?
about 1 month ago
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Consequence of Iran targeting US bases across the region is that it's attacks have to get through the fresh air defense networks of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, etc, countries the United States has spent the last two decades equipping for just this sort of thing.
about 1 month ago
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This is probably correct. Also makes it easier for missile defenses to deal with it.
about 1 month ago
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My latest Substack post, with some thoughts on Chinese testing, and some half-baked thoughts on its effects on the arms control framework.
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/causes-and...
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Causes and Effects of Chinese Nuclear Testing
A Desire for Safety is a Headache for Arms Control
https://horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/causes-and-effects-of-chinese-nuclear
about 1 month ago
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We are quickly moving past "will there be a war" and into "what kind of war will it be" territory. What US chooses to strike in the first 48 hours will set the tone here.
about 1 month ago
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I refuse to believe that the shih tzu with the bow in its hair is not a paid actor dog.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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My latest in FP, on the risks of New START's demise and the problem with focusing too much on numbers in a new technological era. Gift link:
foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/09/n...
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The Real Risk After New START Isn’t Arms Racing
Without the treaty, nuclear forces will become hard to verify and harder to trust.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/09/new-start-nuclear-arms-control-us-russia-treaty-negotiations/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bmV3LXN0YXJ0LW51Y2xlYXItYXJtcy1jb250cm9sLXVzLXJ1c3NpYS10cmVhdHktbmVnb3RpYXRpb25z&pid=PNIIEQRnirhjrth
about 2 months ago
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True Promise I and II may go down as the most cataclysmicly counterproductive military operations in history. Shattered threat perception on Iran in to a million tiny pieces.
2 months ago
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Three possibilities, possibly overlapping, none of them good for China's ability to fight: A) the PLA is so ludicrously corrupt that basically everyone above a certain rank is either involved or knows about it and is compromised by it
2 months ago
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No, Reddit automatically scrubs that data. And the sub was almost certainly in port at the time.
add a skeleton here at some point
2 months ago
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Reading a book, originally written in Russian, that uses Chinese words regularly, but A) the Russian author clearly did not speak Chinese and B) there are no tones. So an already borderline unintelligible experience becomes truely unintelligible.
2 months ago
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This is oughtslop. You only like it because its what ought to be.
2 months ago
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add a skeleton here at some point
2 months ago
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Some thoughts on the recent Oreshnik madness:
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
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More Oreshnik Madness
Russia has used Oreshnik again, this time against some sort of target outside Lviv.
https://open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeuvresofbattle/p/more-oreshnik-madness?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&shareImageVariant=overlay&r=en9sd
3 months ago
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Theres a lot of talk about Oreshnik being a "psychological weapon." This is, I think, an oversimplification - its true that Oreshnik has some operational limitations. I would argue that those limitations are not all that different than other conventional ballistic missiles.
3 months ago
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reposted by
Decker Eveleth
Michael Duitsman
3 months ago
Seeing potentially credible reports and videos of a new Oreshnik launch against Ukraine tonight.
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My latest in Foriegn Policy, where I pour cold water on normative arguments with the technical reality.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/v...
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The Real Reason China and Russia Won’t Try a Maduro-Style Raid
U.S. rivals aren’t deterred by norms so much as by the limits of their own militaries.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/venezuela-maduro-us-operation-china-russia-ukraine-taiwan/?tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dmVuZXp1ZWxhLW1hZHVyby11cy1vcGVyYXRpb24tY2hpbmEtcnVzc2lhLXVrcmFpbmUtdGFpd2Fu&pid=PNIIEQRnirhjrth
3 months ago
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Trying to commit to reading 3-4 books a month. Here is January's reading stack.
3 months ago
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[black SUVs pull up to a ski chalet in Vermont] "You're a hard man to find...Mr. Bremer." "Apparently not hard enough." "We need you. One last job."
3 months ago
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What is a "black swan" military performance? That doesn't make any sense.
add a skeleton here at some point
3 months ago
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reposted by
Decker Eveleth
Seva
3 months ago
putin is already pretty unconstrained in ukraine (the people saying "zelensky is next" seem unaware russia has tried to kill him many times). the bigger danger is it emboldens putin to step up sabotage and hybrid warfare in europe
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Funniest tweet of the year so far.
add a skeleton here at some point
3 months ago
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Yemen, Iran, and now Venezuela, without a single aviation casualty. That's really amazing.
3 months ago
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A federal judge waking up, checking his email, and seeing the Maduro arraignment on his schedule
3 months ago
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I am going to caution against people assuming that he must have been turned over by the Venezuelan military - much too early to tell. Lack of anti-air fire can be explained by lack of readiness/competence and US SEAD/DEAD.
3 months ago
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We have identified what is likely the first technical support area in Belarus for the Oreshnik missile.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
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Exclusive: Russia likely placing new hypersonic missiles at former airbase in Belarus, researchers find
Moscow is likely stationing new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a development that could bolster Russia’s ability to deliver missiles across Europ...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-researchers-identify-likely-belarus-site-new-russian-nuclear-capable-missile-2025-12-26/
3 months ago
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Some very brief thoughts on the Navy force design discussion: "But I think as a whole the direction the US Navy’s force design is going is defensible if you understand how these pieces go together."
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
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Thoughts on the Future Fleet
I had meant to write this post weeks ago when the news of the Constellation class’ cancellation (say that five times fast) broke.
https://open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeuvresofbattle/p/thoughts-on-the-future-fleet?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&shareImageVariant=overlay&r=en9sd
3 months ago
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I've been listening a lot to Rush's "Between the Wheels" from their hit 1984 album Grace Under Pressure, a song that compares suffering though the modern media environment's constant drumbeat of news to being a rabbit getting hit by a car
3 months ago
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Swen is correct to make fun of you.
4 months ago
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Every year that goes by Todd Howard looks more and more like an Italian banking executive
4 months ago
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Why is this still going. Some of us have bedtimes
4 months ago
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YEEEEEESSSSSSS
add a skeleton here at some point
4 months ago
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I'm glad that Space King exists as it causes the 10% of the Warhammer 40k community with the worst opinions to self label themselves so I can more efficiently ignore their opinions.
4 months ago
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Amazing.
4 months ago
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I'm sorry, what?
4 months ago
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If American companies cannot supply a cheap weapon that consistently works in Ukraine, then the entire idea of mixing high and low capability weapons in the Pacific is dead on arrival. If you can't deal with Russian EW then you definitely aren't going to like Chinese EW.
4 months ago
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When you eject the floppy disk a little too hard
4 months ago
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Canceling the constellation class was good and nessessary and will allow the Navy to focus on more achievable capabilities and goals. I understand this is an unpopular opinion, but its also the correct one when taking into account the constraints the Navy is operating under.
4 months ago
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Verstappen winning the champ via disqualifications would not be good, but it would be very, very funny.
4 months ago
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Gunter was streaming himself playing modded HOI4 kicking the shit out if the Russians
4 months ago
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I have never understood the idea that rotating a map of Asia 90° will suddenly unlock some revolutionary new perspective. The places are in the same spots. Everything that can be said about Asian security problems can be said with a north up map.
4 months ago
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My dad, who has worn the same pair of tan New Balances for 30 years, arrived to this wedding location wearing *black* New Balances. When questioned, he explained that these were his dress New Balances, for special occasions. Of course.
5 months ago
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The president certainly just wants 1 to 1 flight testing, which is not the same thing as nuclear explosions (and flight testing DOES live within the DoW).
5 months ago
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Most of the takes I see on Russia-US nuclear issues over the past 48 hours are well reasoned but may fall victim to overthinking. Putin likes Brevestnik because its his pet project. Trump wants to do 1 to 1 flight testing to match.
5 months ago
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