I really do think we need some sort of disparaging term for people whose only interaction with fiction is Weir and qntm.

My latest in FP, on how Iranian deterrence has collapsed over the last two years: foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/24/i...

Experts from the @fpri.bsky.social analyze the latest military developments from the Third Gulf War @slair.bsky.social @dexeve.bsky.social @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social @salisbot.bsky.social & Guy Plopsky www.fpri.org/article/2026...

Drone launches are down for the same reason missile launches are down. Its a posture issue. You can have the biggest drone arsenal in the world but if your forces aren't postured to effectively continue operations under fire, eventually you won't have the capability to use them

An update on how the Iranians are fairing. We're seeing lots of hits on stationary abandoned launchers, which implies either a high missile failure rate or Iranian crews are simply abandoning launchers after firing.

Unlike the 12 Day War in which Iran used a certain segment of its missile force to retaliate in distinguishable waves, this is complete chaos. Many missiles across many fronts, potentially with units acting without centralized authority.

Some really interesting questions now arise. I don't recall something like this ever happening in the precision munitions era: how do you handle regime transition when your adversary can track and eliminate leadership targets?

Consequence of Iran targeting US bases across the region is that it's attacks have to get through the fresh air defense networks of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, etc, countries the United States has spent the last two decades equipping for just this sort of thing.

This is probably correct. Also makes it easier for missile defenses to deal with it.

My latest Substack post, with some thoughts on Chinese testing, and some half-baked thoughts on its effects on the arms control framework. horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/causes-and...

We are quickly moving past "will there be a war" and into "what kind of war will it be" territory. What US chooses to strike in the first 48 hours will set the tone here.

I refuse to believe that the shih tzu with the bow in its hair is not a paid actor dog.

My latest in FP, on the risks of New START's demise and the problem with focusing too much on numbers in a new technological era. Gift link: foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/09/n...

True Promise I and II may go down as the most cataclysmicly counterproductive military operations in history. Shattered threat perception on Iran in to a million tiny pieces.

Three possibilities, possibly overlapping, none of them good for China's ability to fight: A) the PLA is so ludicrously corrupt that basically everyone above a certain rank is either involved or knows about it and is compromised by it

No, Reddit automatically scrubs that data. And the sub was almost certainly in port at the time.

Reading a book, originally written in Russian, that uses Chinese words regularly, but A) the Russian author clearly did not speak Chinese and B) there are no tones. So an already borderline unintelligible experience becomes truely unintelligible.

This is oughtslop. You only like it because its what ought to be.

Some thoughts on the recent Oreshnik madness: open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...

Theres a lot of talk about Oreshnik being a "psychological weapon." This is, I think, an oversimplification - its true that Oreshnik has some operational limitations. I would argue that those limitations are not all that different than other conventional ballistic missiles.

Seeing potentially credible reports and videos of a new Oreshnik launch against Ukraine tonight.

My latest in Foriegn Policy, where I pour cold water on normative arguments with the technical reality. foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/v...

Trying to commit to reading 3-4 books a month. Here is January's reading stack.

[black SUVs pull up to a ski chalet in Vermont] "You're a hard man to find...Mr. Bremer." "Apparently not hard enough." "We need you. One last job."

What is a "black swan" military performance? That doesn't make any sense.

putin is already pretty unconstrained in ukraine (the people saying "zelensky is next" seem unaware russia has tried to kill him many times). the bigger danger is it emboldens putin to step up sabotage and hybrid warfare in europe

Funniest tweet of the year so far.

Yemen, Iran, and now Venezuela, without a single aviation casualty. That's really amazing.

A federal judge waking up, checking his email, and seeing the Maduro arraignment on his schedule

I am going to caution against people assuming that he must have been turned over by the Venezuelan military - much too early to tell. Lack of anti-air fire can be explained by lack of readiness/competence and US SEAD/DEAD.

We have identified what is likely the first technical support area in Belarus for the Oreshnik missile. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Some very brief thoughts on the Navy force design discussion: "But I think as a whole the direction the US Navy’s force design is going is defensible if you understand how these pieces go together." open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...

I've been listening a lot to Rush's "Between the Wheels" from their hit 1984 album Grace Under Pressure, a song that compares suffering though the modern media environment's constant drumbeat of news to being a rabbit getting hit by a car

Swen is correct to make fun of you.

Every year that goes by Todd Howard looks more and more like an Italian banking executive

Why is this still going. Some of us have bedtimes

YEEEEEESSSSSSS

I'm glad that Space King exists as it causes the 10% of the Warhammer 40k community with the worst opinions to self label themselves so I can more efficiently ignore their opinions.

Amazing.

I'm sorry, what?

If American companies cannot supply a cheap weapon that consistently works in Ukraine, then the entire idea of mixing high and low capability weapons in the Pacific is dead on arrival. If you can't deal with Russian EW then you definitely aren't going to like Chinese EW.

When you eject the floppy disk a little too hard

Canceling the constellation class was good and nessessary and will allow the Navy to focus on more achievable capabilities and goals. I understand this is an unpopular opinion, but its also the correct one when taking into account the constraints the Navy is operating under.

Verstappen winning the champ via disqualifications would not be good, but it would be very, very funny.

Gunter was streaming himself playing modded HOI4 kicking the shit out if the Russians

I have never understood the idea that rotating a map of Asia 90° will suddenly unlock some revolutionary new perspective. The places are in the same spots. Everything that can be said about Asian security problems can be said with a north up map.

My dad, who has worn the same pair of tan New Balances for 30 years, arrived to this wedding location wearing *black* New Balances. When questioned, he explained that these were his dress New Balances, for special occasions. Of course.

The president certainly just wants 1 to 1 flight testing, which is not the same thing as nuclear explosions (and flight testing DOES live within the DoW).

Most of the takes I see on Russia-US nuclear issues over the past 48 hours are well reasoned but may fall victim to overthinking. Putin likes Brevestnik because its his pet project. Trump wants to do 1 to 1 flight testing to match.