Applications for the next cohort of the Taiwan Next Gen Working Group are open: conta.cc/4gtPME5 Great program, outstanding opportunity to build networks in Taiwan, the US, and Europe. Everyone is incredibly passionate about better understanding Taiwan and its global role.

This was a lot of fun! Thanks so much, @warontherocks.bsky.social!

I have many thoughts about Charlie Kirk—and perhaps even more about the white elites, including some on the left, who insist we can’t hold multiple realities at once. We can. And we must. A brief 🧵

elbridge colby is who i have in mind when i say that "respectable" milhead cons' basic pitch is "we must sell out ukraine today so that we can sell out taiwan tomorrow"

My latest in War on the Rocks. Catherine Kish and I argue that Taiwan has deep reserves of societal resilience and will to fight. Politics holds back efforts to deepen these reserves, but the United States can help. #TWSky

“…I am infuriated that the Air Force plans to grant military funeral honors to Ashli Babbitt. She did not die defending the Constitution. She died trying to overturn it.” My latest in @thebulwark.com www.thebulwark.com/p/honoring-a...

And with this, I'm going to go enjoy my birthday with my family. 🎂🥳

See, this is exactly wrong. A "real" remedy is to change the rules to simple majority, which I probably agree with. But if this follows the rules in place, then the decision/vote is probably valid.

Following on this, here are some thoughts on the DFL convention. Easiest first: Running conventions is hard, and tech problems easily cumulate. There's a reason why the international standard for electronic voting is to have *paper backups.*

Some thoughts on the MPLS mayoral race: If the biggest challenge to the city responding to the federal govt, then which is better? 1. Mayor acts as check on city council (further to the left than him). 2. Mayor more closely aligned and works with city council.

This is why diversity in newsrooms is important. There's only *one thing* in red envelopes. Anyone with passing familiarity with East Asia would know that, and it should prompt a good reporter to ask the next, obvious question: Why are they handing out money to guests at a political event?

"In the Chinese culture, money is often given to others in a gesture of friendship and gratitude." Sure, during big events like weddings or new years, and certainly not inside a bag of chips. This is a bribe.

"...he shall not receive within that Period any other Emolument from the United States, or any of them." "...no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust...shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title...from any King, Prince, or foreign State."

My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Soha Hammam, & Chris Shay) has finalized our participation estimates for No Kings Day on 6/14. Here are five key takeaways🧵:

Excellent piece, including this quote from the head of Greece's statistical agency about why fights over data are also fights about whether a country can see itself clearly:

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

I recently helped to stand up a federal statistical agency, of which BLS is one This is the key statement of principles and practices: www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/8th...

👍

Thanks to @jodemocracy.bsky.social for publishing my latest on Taiwan's recent recall campaign and the long-term challenges it may pose for the country's democracy. www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclu... #TWSky

Excellent piece by Ezra Klein: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/20/o...

"In these fraught times, the New York Times has made a seemingly deliberate and very self-aware choice to paint a picture of this war without the understanding of who is in the right and who is in the wrong," writes Francis Farrell, reporter at the Kyiv Independent, in this op-ed.

DC folks There is an urgent need to care for babies and young children in our community whose parents have been detained, deported, or otherwise snatched by our government. St Paul’s episcopal church is serving as a collection point for money, formula, and diapers. onrealm.org/StPaulsRockC...

Since April 4, #SCOTUS has issued 15 rulings on 17 emergency applications filed by Trump (three birthright citizenship apps were consolidated). It has granted relief to Trump ... in all 15 rulings. It has written majority opinions in only 3. Today's order is the 7th with no explanation *at all.*

Today's mug: From an alma mater. Drinking Tanzanian peaberry.

A Brief Overview of the Political Situation in South Korea: Since the coup that took place in South Korea on December 3 of last year, I have written several threads explaining the unfolding situation. I would like to once again provide a brief summary of the current state of affairs in South Korea.

IR Theory: I believe there's some scholarly question about whether country/leader reputations cross domains. Does a weak rep for security commitment translate into a similarly weak one for trade?

Today's mug: From when I was at the UN, the absolute worst place I've ever worked at. But this is a nice mug. Drinking Espresso de noche coffee.

Absolutely sucks that we’re having a trade war with Japan and South Korea, two incredible allies and trading partners who produce awesome goods that benefit Americans

My takeaway is that the big kahuna policy and research question is not marginal effect of more vs. less police (it does exist), but how to get existing police to submit to civilian command such that a commitment to do more police work in exchange for more funds is credible

Today's mug: For an afternoon pick me up, another handmade cup from Hanoi. The image is of Ngoc Son temple in the middle of the city. Store where I got the cup is around the lake from the temple. Drinking a shot of espresso.

The Mamdani Columbia story is an example of a microgenre where ethnic communities have had complex internal conversations about identity for generations and white people pratfall into them to go "what the fuck, why are you trying to trick me"

Today's mug: From the University of Minnesota's Humphrey School. I think i got it as a gift for mentoring a student team on an Army War College negotiation simulation. Drinking Taiwanese green tea.

Today's mug: handmade cup from Hanoi, Vietnam. One nickname my wife has for me is "bear", and we live in the "bold north," so this fit.

🧵 THREAD: Why the Cato Institute’s new paper on “misinformation panic” is dangerously wrong, and why it completely misunderstands the real crisis we face. www.cato.org/policy-analy...

Today's mug: I have no idea where this is from. I think my kids got it. Also, a little hard to drink from between the ears. Still, very cute! Drinking: Homemade cold brew.

(Shoot, I've been delinquent on these.) Today's mug: Just a lovely mug I got from a specialty pottery store in Taipei. We don't drink much loose leaf tea bc it's fiddly and clean up is a hassle. This mug is a nice solution. Drinking green tea from 天仁 (I know, I know).

💯. As @cherylrofer.bsky.social has argued at length most of the people who criticize NATO expansion argue as if the world would have been pretty much exactly the same, but with less aggressive Russia. This is... problematic. And let's have a quick chat about inverse errors. 🧵

This is incredibly courageous. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/o...

Saw an outstanding performance of Cabaret at @guthrietheater.bsky.social. Incredible performers and stage work. The ending visual haunts you, as it should.

Reupping this bc it's important and my timing was terrible the first time around.

Almost forgot: today's mug: Just one of the places I used to teach at. I miss Rose Hill. @fordham.edu Leftover coffee from yesterday. A tea tomorrow.

Man, I appreciate the nuclear block.

Hi @thebulwark.com, do you have anything online I could link to about why you selected that name? I'm writing a piece about the need for strong center-right parties, and there's a small rhetorical element I'd love to include. But depends on the name selection reasons.

Today's mug: a gift from Taiwan's legislature. Has the image of a Taiwanese black bear on it. Drinking Brazilian bourbon coffee.

IR Theory 🧵: One issue I have with unilateralist and restraint approaches to foreign policy is that they assume other countries have no choice but to maintain their policies even the face of US withdrawal from global leadership. The US can get all the benefits of global leadership without the cost.

Today's mug: From a guest talk I gave for the amazing @spindel.bsky.social at the Univ. Of New Hampshire. Drinking turkish coffee.

If you're interested in seeing what the conversation on X looked like on Saturday morning, as the information warriors there went to work framing the shootings of Democratic lawmakers for political gain, I made an interactive graph: faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/Spot...

Marveling at this review of my book on Xi Zhongxun by Jon Sine: he absolutely nailed it. It was precisely to facilitate this kind of reflection that I wrote “The Party’s Interests Come First” www.cogitations.co/p/the-life-a...