🧵 MINNEAPOLIS TURNOUT FUN. 2025 (147k) was flat compared to ’21 (145k) yet set a record. But which areas surged or fell? We can’t fully analyze because of 2022 redistricting, but 53 precincts didn’t change borders. We also don’t have 2025 precinct turnout yet, but can use mayoral vote as proxy …

I have a Minneapolis elections theory that may be way too simple: the 2025 mayor’s race was closer because Rank All 3 worked! It didn’t work well enough … but it worked. There were 13,300 more votes in 2025’s final round & Fateh got 10,300 of them!

Did Animales BBQ tonight for the first time. Passed the test; very good (Stl ribs, slaw, hush puppies, pickled green beans, pork shoulder, season fries) & I’m a tough judge. The signature feature, however, is the awesome playground that will attract overeducated parents like moths to a bug light.

Does anyone have a detailed Ward/precinct digital map from 2021 Minneapolis elections. Nothing really workable online. Need to be able to read streets by precinct borders. Reply here or DM. Thanks.

I see old friend @senatorpappas.bsky.social is retiring (after session, when term ends). Congrats to her & is half of St. Paul bluesky running?

Long-awaited Silverbird Coffee opening up Friday in the old Kruse Markit space on the 4200 block of Nicollet (just up from Bucheron). Clear sign of economic activity spurred by the election of @sorenwithward8.bsky.social …

Twins‘ bullpen will be all position players for 2026, Derek Shelton knew this when he was hired

It will take years of mine-cleaning in East Isles, the DMZ between Kenwood & the Wedge.

witness the meteoric rise of a pop music superstar! please don’t ask about any other parts of his life

Is there a prediction market yet on how fast the Prince musical closes once it hits Broadway? I figure it will either be a few weeks or it will run forever

I know some folks were asking for something like this (@meshm.bsky.social iirc) So I made a quick dot density map of the first choice Minneapolis mayoral results. This allows you to see two things that choropleth maps can't show... umn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/mapview...

According to the city’s website the Current Occupant is Ally Peters. I would say it’s not unusual to for personnel changes after an election. Lots of reasons. Because government job, must be posted even if someone already tapped. Good eye!

Ok! 24 entries in my #mplswin Minneapolis prediction contest. PRELIMINARY 🧵because some of you are bad as hashtagging and I might have missed some. First, a bit of analytical fun … 1. RACE WITH MOST INCORRECT: You didn’t believe in @amberforparks.bsky.social! 75% wrong. Amber shut you up.

Yard looks as naked as a Lamplighter stripper without lawn signs

I don’t want to memory-hole Betsy Hodges’ 2013 win. It definitely wasn’t DSA but it was last successful center-left alliance. Folks should re-read this September Racket piece, where she describes the alliance but — I know this will chafe — the need to appeal to SW. racketmn.com/minneapolis-...

I am never not gonna be mad about the Minneapolis public not connecting Frey to complete control of MPD operations for the past 8 years. www.startribune.com/election-day...

Austerity finally hits the stock market

NEAT BIKE STORY. Great new bike lane on 1st between Franklin/Lake had big prob: 2-way 29th St connection to parallel protected Blaisdell lane blocked by a bumpout — forcing eastbound bikers turning north to 1st into oncoming traffic using 29th to get to Nicollet. So I DMd @alexschief.bsky.social …

Lol. Neither Frey nor Fateh topped 37% in either Kingfield precinct. We’re center-left overall. But Keith’s south Kingfield larps Lynnhurst so … Jazz, while north Kingfield is Peak Bluesky and was one of Davis’s stronger precincts.

Good 🧵with notes that: 1) LaTrisha Vetaw & Linnea Palmisano are both primed to inherit Frey’s backers; progressives better not be all male. 2) Council it was 5-6-2 prog/Frey/swing in ‘21 & 6-5-2 ’25, depending on how you count; 2-0 progs on BET both years; big 2025 change over ‘21 was Park Board.

Mamdani got more than twice as many votes in NYC as CNN has prime-time viewers nationwide

Saint Paul election was an own goal. I still don’t understand how this happened.

Some of my candidates lost, but I don’t have to go back to Facebook until 2029, so I’m a winner

Does @tombasgen.bsky.social live in Rep. Her’s district because I have an awesome idea

Would guess @olsenforparks.bsky.social is the new Parks chair if he wants it; will be fun to see good folks on Minneapolis Planning Commission and Board of Estimate.

MinnPost has a map comparing Minneapolis Ward-by-ward turnout from 2025 to 2021 but I don’t know how you do that since redistricting happened between the two elections … www.minnpost.com/metro/2025/1...

I *wish* we could explain away a third term for jacob Frey as ranked choice voting’s fault. That would be weirdly comforting to me! But sometimes the truth is simpler—and pretty uncomfortable. We don’t do uncomfortable here. 🙁

Pure class. (Image is the words "thank you Minneapolis" in navy text on an off-white background)

Will be interesting to see if Frey can convince Osman & Whiting to vote for a subsidized Timberwolves stadium when that whip comes down, because that’s what it will take.

Park Board, for sickos 🧵. It’s an unofficial 5-3-1 progressive majority, which is great. The Jamal Osman Trophy For Key Swing Vote goes to new D3 commissioner Kedar Deshpande. Why is the 6th vote swing? Because it will be needed to override Frey’s vetoes on Park Board money votes. 1/

[Obama anger translator mode] 4 rounds conventional RCV election; as candidates eliminated, their voters’ 1st choices went to their 2nd choices. Only change was final round: Forney had more 1st choices than needed to win, so a slice of her votes over threshold redistributed to surviving candidates.

Of DeWayne Davis first choices, 61.7% flowed to Omar Fateh, 23.2% flowed to Jacob Frey, and 15.1% exhausted. Of Jazz Hampton first choices, 36.9% flowed to Omar Fateh, 43.2% flowed to Jacob Frey, and 19.9% exhausted.

I put it in a reply, but I want to pull it out: even if Jazz voters broke for Fateh at the same rate as Davis voters, Fateh still loses My math shows that would've pulled Fateh to a 1,463 deficit, making it Frey 47.9% to Fateh 47% Not calling out the original poster. It's a genuinely interesting

I don’t think this surprises close observers —that Jazz voters would split in half between Fateh & Frey & Davis voters would be mostly Fateh. Only 6% exhausted ballots — quite low! —really shows there wasn’t some pool of non-ranking voters who’d push Fateh over the top If RCV was abolished.

We don’t talk much about Minneapolis Ward 6, home of key swing voter Jamal Osman but get this: he won election by 1300 votes but lost Cedar-Riverside by 145, his only losing precinct. I don’t know challenger Mohamoud Hassan‘a connections to that precinct.

It’s a non-RCV race but the top 2 make the final (like pre-RCV Minneapolis) & there are 4 candidates so you can watch them chaotically careen into each other. AOM will demonize Cedrick Frazier; Hao Nguyen is maybe a Davis/Jazz figure, Anders Folk is the Frey Guy & Matt Pelikan is 2013 Cam Winston.

My RCV take: It’s not preventing Minneapolis progressives from achieving desired city-wide results. It is actually showing that progressives are close even when not winning. And it’s affirming something about the electorate that we don’t understand, can’t accept, or don’t know what to do about.

We’ll never know but there’s a reasonable chance Frey didn’t win a majority of DFL votes with a +6 toplind. Of course, everybody gets to vote, that’s how you win, but still. While some wanna get rid of RCV my fantasy alternative is partisan RCV primaries. (Would keep current w/public financing.)

I guess they have a place and journalists are on deadline but 1st-choice maps are highly misleading when cast as a candidate “winning” a geographic area. For example, it’s very likely Fateh beat Frey in many more precincts when final RCV is mapped. www.startribune.com/how-minneapo...

Melvin pissed off rich people, Frey didn’t. The winner in St. Paul was closer to the political center than the final challenger in Minneapolis.

+6 win margin for Frey. Half or less of previous margins. Still no-doubt win.

Haven’t had a chance to score the #mplswin prediction contest but ALL PARTICIPANTS could do me a favor: go back to your original post and reply with a scoring adding 1 for every race you got correct. For the tiebreak, subtract your guess from 147,702 and put that in the reply too. Thanks!

Can I tell you how much people who were at Woodstock and became narcs bothers me?

Your Dad partied with the DSA last night & I gotta say, they’re a fun group. Heartened by their hard work fueled by a love of the city. The irony is government can only do so much, so people who are into the city-as-city boost the culture & make this a place where I want to remain despite shittery.

All I want to know about St. Paul is if my sweet lovely boy @seankershaw.bsky.social is ok.

Analysis of Ward 5 election from somebody who lives in Ward 5. Couple things I haven’t seen on here: 1) Jeremiah Ellison has not done a great job of constituent relations. He’s got a reputation for not being responsive (whether that’s fair or not IDK. I’ve heard arguments both ways.)

One difference between 2021 & 2025 was the collapse of the Minneapolis mayoral undercard - no-hopers who still put Frey over the top. For example, Republican Laverne Turner got 4,600 votes in 2021; as an independent in 2025, 795 votes. Largely a function of 4 major candidates in 2025 vs 3 in 2021

A Tale of One Neighborhood: Kingfield, south of 40th Street: Josh Bassais wins by 49 votes Kingfield, north of 40th: Soren Stevenson wins by 550 votes #noki rules!

Took me a sec

Minneapolis at least built its cool bike lane (Hennepin) through its rich neighborhood before haters could defeat its progressive champion (Cashman). No such luck for St. Paul & Summit.