Lol

Automated nuclear weapons systems are not just a Hollywood plot device. In this #Firstview article, @joshschwartz.bsky.social and @mchorowitz.bsky.social evaluate how they could impact the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Our new ProjectGEOCAUSAL website is live! We’ll be posting the latest updates on cutting-edge applications of spatiotemporal causal inference to address the world’s most pressing problems. Check it out: geocausal.org

When leaders frame disputed land as “territory we might lose” rather than “new land to gain,” people in Argentina & Chile become more willing to support risky escalation and less willing to compromise. New study by @andizhou.bsky.social: https://loom.ly/cjdEJkM

As the saying goes, every op-ed is a job talk www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/o...

A new paper finds ideological bias in research analyses: Research teams composed of pro-immigration researchers estimated more positive impacts of immigration on public support for social programs, while anti-immigration teams estimated more negative impacts. science.org/doi/10.1126/...?

New Special Issue in @the-peio.bsky.social: Public Opinion and International Organizations. In the SI intro, we map the field, place the SI papers & identify ways forward: rdcu.be/eXt2R with @jonastallberg.bsky.social, 🙏 @adreher.bsky.social, reviewers & SI authors #Polisky #InternationalRelations

Apropos current events, I want to tout this paper by @soyounglee.bsky.social showing that discussion of economic benefits can reduce public support for military action. People are skeptical when they think specific groups (e.g., oil companies) will benefit. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

NEW - Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - https://cup.org/3YSsX4N - @rachelmyrick.bsky.social & @wpmarble.bsky.social #OpenAccess

Coauthors Liz Sperber, O’Brien Kaaba and I have published 3 papers about youth civic ed and political participation, based on a WhatsApp experiment and a prior in-person pilot conducted in collaboration w/ Caritas Zambia CCMG Zambia @poverty-action.bsky.social and United Council of Churches Zambia

New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵

Some news. My book on climate and security for Cambridge University Press is the winner of the 2026 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Advancing World Order. Thrilled to be among the august company of previous winners. www.uoflnews.com/post/uofltod...

A friendly reminder that some of you should really spend less time online

NEWS - The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA "right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support" - Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social #OpenAccess

Our online special issue, The Future of Global Governance and World Order, is out! It features 15 short essays plus the editors' introduction, all #OpenAccess. www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #IOFoGG

For the first Encode/Decode post, go back to @jkertzer.bsky.social, @ryanbrutger.bsky.social & Kai Quek's @worldpolitics.bsky.social article using cross-national #survey #experiments in #China and the #US to test for a #security dilemma. Read their original #empirical work: doi.org/10.1353/wp.2...

Congratulations to @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and @kmatush.bsky.social for the launch of the Global Public Opinion Lab (GPOL) at Florida State! Lots of exciting plans in the works! (I couldn't take any pictures of public opinion, so here's one of Spanish moss)

Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social. Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence. doi.org/10.1017/eis....

You could not pay me enough to voluntarily use a yeet() or no_cap() command in R

We propose a spatiotemporal causal inference framework that fully leverages microlevel, granular data. ATE, heterogeneity, and mediation — all in one framework. Now with updated results and visualizations!

🚨 New in @bjpols.bsky.social : “Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.” By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie. We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare. 1/6

“The divide between international relations theory and practice is problematic in normal times, and downright dangerous in turbulent ones,” write Stacie Goddard and @jkertzer.bsky.social.

1/In honor of no kings! Imagine an international order organized not around nation-states but hyper elites pledged to absolute rulers. Welcome to neo-royalism. New w/Stacie Goddard in International Organization. We use the approach to rethink US policy in Trump era. www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...

In Polarization and International Politics, @rachelmyrick.bsky.social explains how extreme polarization undermines the advantages that democracies have when formulating foreign policy. Available worldwide. Explore a free sample of this timely book: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...

Applications for the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance's postdoctoral fellowship program for 2026-2027 are due Monday, October 13. Details here: www.princeton.edu/acad-positio...

According to the “Global Terrorism Database (GTD)—arguably the most widely-used dataset in the study of political violence—anti-abortion activists constitute the single most common perpetrators of terrorist attacks in the United States.” Source: jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Research_fil...

🚨 Exciting news! Harvard has two open senior searches this fall: 1️⃣ International Security 2️⃣ American Politics I'm blissfully on post-DGS sabbatical and am not on either committee, but if you're curious about if you should apply, the answer is yes ☺️ academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15152

Working on political psychology research with a focus on East Asia? A new special issue of our journal will center East Asia to broaden the field’s geographic & cultural assumptions. Find the call in the Special Issues section of the link below & consider submitting your work! linktr.ee/POPSjournal

Congratulations @mlandauwells.bsky.social!

🚨 It’s publication day! THE ART OF COERCION is finally out. When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough. Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.” shorturl.at/qa4T5

Now out open access in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, & I investigate US reassurance efforts in 2023 during Russia's war on Ukraine. We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

New working paper: “Survey Estimates of Wartime Mortality,” with Gary King, available at gking.harvard.edu/sibs. We provide the first formal proofs of the statistical properties of existing mortality estimators, along with empirical illustrations, to develop intuitions that guide best practices.

Thrilled to share the cover of my upcoming book, out February 2026 from @oxfordacademic.bsky.social NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis global.oup.com/academic/pro...

You'll never guess what Barbra Streisand is up to

Excited to report my article "Digital Interdependence and Power Politics" has been published open access in @bjpols.bsky.social. I use internet measurements to understand how international security influences global data flows www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Lots going on lately here, but I wanted to take a moment to congratulate our incredible Harvard Government PhD graduates! 🎓🫶

My ambassador paper with Shu Fu is out in @worldpolitics.bsky.social! Ambassadors promote domestic exports to a host country and represent the interests of their home country at large. However, are trade benefits equally distributed domestically? 🧵 muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

How can we identify causal effects using micro-level data? Our new framework estimates ATEs, probes causal mechanisms, and uncovers heterogeneity—all in one. We illustrate it with an analysis of airstrikes and insurgent attacks in Iraq. arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464

Delighted and honored to receive the 2025 Karl Deutsch Award from the International Studies Association. I attribute this almost entirely to my luck in having amazing colleagues, mentors, collaborators and students over the years; I've been incredibly fortunate. @isanet.bsky.social #ISA2025

greatest political science achievement is getting “best flavor” in the department Bake Off? my PhD cohort social core all won @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social @cerny.bsky.social. Congrats to @gabrielaarmani.bsky.social for winning the judicial electoral college + popular vote —pretty good in the US !

The 3rd Annual Great CGIS Bakeoff was a triumph! Congratulations to Gabriela Armani for her doubly-winning Brazilian Banoffee, & runner-up Aleksandra Conevska! 🏆 Category winners: 🍪 @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social 🥮 @cerny.bsky.social 🥧 @malpas.bsky.social ☕️ Lucia Mendoza 🏆 @chriskenny.bsky.social

I'm very happy that we were able to rerun our 2022 conjoint experiment on Ukrainians' attitudes towards the war and its brutal tradeoffs in Dec '24/Jan '25. See below article in Foreign Affairs for a summary. More details in our (short) working paper here www.carlmueller-crepon.org/publication/...

NOW OUT ON FIRSTVIEW!! Toward a Qualitative Study of the American Voter By Anna Berg & @stephanieternullo.bsky.social https://buff.ly/4gN6cFR

A small ray of light: my paper with @heingoemans.bsky.social and @miweintraub83.bsky.social, “Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes,” is “just accepted” at @thejop.bsky.social! See what prospect theory can (and can’t) explain about territorial disputes: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Happy to review Mearsheimer and Rosato's new book, a spirited takedown of political psychology that claims that political psychologists don’t study how individuals comprehend the world around them, which is rather like arguing that botanists don’t study plants www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

Happy to review Mearsheimer and Rosato's new book, a spirited takedown of political psychology that claims that political psychologists don’t study how individuals comprehend the world around them, which is rather like arguing that botanists don’t study plants www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

My book, Cooperative Complexity: The Next Level of Global Economic Governance, is out today! You can order it from @cambridgeuppolisci.bsky.social for 20% off with the discount code CLARK24. The purchase link and a short thread on the book follow 🧵

Am super excited to be back teaching my (49% eccentric, 51% chaotic) Political Psychology in International Relations PhD seminar again this semester. There's so much good new work in this area! jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Teaching_fil...

What can neuroscience do for IR? Using data from 500+ fMRI studies, @mlandauwells.bsky.social shows how brain data improves our understanding of threat perception and offers new insights into its effects on conflict and coercion. #polisci #polisky #conflictsky www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

This is a *very* good book