How do combatants navigate interdependence during wartime? In just-published research, Nadiya Kostyuk et al. examine how combatants manage collective institutions during conflict and challenge the view that war and interdependence are inherently incompatible. Read: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

"Choosing to fight can lead to all the normal costs of war—death, destruction, and a shift in resources from butter to guns—but not bring the expected benefits in terms of enhanced reputation for resolve,” writes @joshschwartz.bsky.social, SSP visiting scholar. Read more: https://bit.ly/3NkrsdJ

Thrilled to share that my job market paper (9 years in the making!) is now accepted @thejop.bsky.social. I question the conventional wisdom that standing firm is always beneficial to a state's reputation for resolve relative to backing down doi.org/10.1086/741344

Are nuclear weapons useful for coercion? If so, what factors increase the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats? Read the latest research from CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social and UPenn's @mchorowitz.bsky.social in International Organization. Read: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Excited to share a new article in @iojournal.bsky.social with @mchorowitz.bsky.social! We evaluate the risk of states using automated nuclear launch systems to facilitate revisionist coercive efforts. Unfortunately, we find the danger is real and should be taken seriously doi.org/10.1017/S002...

As President Trump withdraws the US from intl agreements - including the Paris Agreement and WHO - Lotem Bassan-Nygate and I ask how this affects public opinion towards cooperation? We descibe our recent findings in @goodauth.bsky.social : tinyurl.com/goodauth @harvardkennedy.bsky.social 1/4

Excited to share a new article in @iojournal.bsky.social with @mchorowitz.bsky.social! We evaluate the risk of states using automated nuclear launch systems to facilitate revisionist coercive efforts. Unfortunately, we find the danger is real and should be taken seriously doi.org/10.1017/S002...

What factors increase the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats? New research by CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social and UPenn's @mchorowitz.bsky.social highlights the dangers of countries adopting automated nuclear systems for malign purposes. Read: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Automated nuclear weapons systems are not just a Hollywood plot device. In this #Firstview article, @joshschwartz.bsky.social and @mchorowitz.bsky.social evaluate how they could impact the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

#OpenAccess from @iojournal.bsky.social - Delegating Destruction: Coercive Threats and Automated Nuclear Systems - https://cup.org/49YGNct - @joshschwartz.bsky.social & @mchorowitz.bsky.social#OpenAccess #FirstView

“We find concerning evidence that automated nuclear weapons launch systems may enhance the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats,” write @joshschwartz.bsky.social, SSP visiting scholar, & @mchorowitz.bsky.social in their latest article for International Organization https://bit.ly/3LLxxPA

Interested in teaching an engaging but rigorous course on American foreign policy and film? Check out my guide for how to do so in @jpseeditors.bsky.social. First 50 readers get free access! www.tandfonline.com/eprint/YX3CZ...

@dandrezner.bsky.social We need the toddler-in-chief thread back for its pièce de résistance! www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/w...

Wondering how domestic polarization is bleeding over into foreign policy? Interested in why Trump is cozying up to right-wing countries like El Salvador + Russia while menacing left-wing Venezuela + Denmark? Check out my updated working paper w/ Dom Tierney preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...

"The use of history to shed light on current events can be dangerously misleading. The parallels are never exactly parallel." Read the latest from CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social and Paul Lendway at Stanford, via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: www.post-gazette.com/opinion/insi...

"However, neither Iraq nor Panama offers a perfect match to the present situation. The use of history to shed light on current events can be dangerously misleading. The parallels are never exactly parallel." @joshschwartz.bsky.social & Paul Lendway www.post-gazette.com/opinion/insi...

Historical analogies are omnipresent in foreign policy debates—like accusations that Trump's Russia-Ukraine peace plan is akin to appeasing Hitler. But are analogies an effective rhetorical tool? Check out my new article w/ @chriswblair.bsky.social & Paul Lendway. doi.org/10.1177/0022...

Do historical analogies shape public opinion about foreign policymaking? Read the latest research by @chriswblair.bsky.social, Paul Lendway, and CMIST's @joshschwartz.bsky.social in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Historical analogies are omnipresent in foreign policy debates—like accusations that Trump's Russia-Ukraine peace plan is akin to appeasing Hitler. But are analogies an effective rhetorical tool? Check out my new article w/ @chriswblair.bsky.social & Paul Lendway. doi.org/10.1177/0022...

What real-world lessons, if any, can we draw from the recent nuclear film "A House of Dynamite?" CMIST's @joshschwartz.bsky.social cautions that the film’s core dilemma is a false one. Read his analysis, today in Modern War Institute mwi.westpoint.edu/the-false-ch...

Netflix’s House of Dynamite is great drama, but terrible nuclear strategy. Hopefully real-world policymakers are more savvy than the fictional ones in the film. Our survival could depend on it! Check out my take t.co/eQbzUrXUFM

“History shows that staying power — not striking an invader’s homeland — is how the weak beat the strong.” Read the latest from CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social on why it is possible for Ukraine to win without attacking Russia, today in @post-gazette.com. www.post-gazette.com/opinion/gues...

Really grateful for @environmentalpol.bsky.social shortlisting my co-authored piece on fossil fuel divestment and public opinion for the best article of the year award. Check it out for an example of a published paper that finds null effects

***Announcement*** The Summer 2025 issue is online! Read articles by @drsarahphillips.bsky.social and Daniel Tower; @daveckang.bsky.social‬, Jackie S. H. Wong, and @zenobiachan.bsky.social; Wu Riqiang; Nick Anderson and Daryl Press; and Henrik Hiim and Øystein Tunsjø direct.mit.edu/isec/issue

🚨 It’s publication day! THE ART OF COERCION is finally out. When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough. Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.” shorturl.at/qa4T5

I sat down with @joshschwartz.bsky.social to discuss a bunch of big issues with drones: the frontlines in Ukraine, Russian targeting of Ukrainian cities, Operation Spiderweb, the Israel-Iran War, and U.S. investment decisions on drones. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Femj...

How can the United States adapt to the changing nature of war? Read the latest by @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Want to teach a rigorous—but fun + engaging—course on American foreign policy through the lens of film? I outline how to do so in a new article in @jpseeditors.bsky.social! From Dr. Strangelove & Battle of Algiers to Mulan & Star Trek, there's lots of connections www.tandfonline.com/eprint/YX3CZ...

How can the United States prepare for the future of warfare? Read the latest by @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and CMIST’s @joshschwartz.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com on how the U.S. can adapt to the changing nature of war www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

"If the Pentagon does not adjust to the new realities of warfare, it will lose the ability to deter adversaries’ aggression before it occurs" write @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, & @joshschwartz.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com. Read here: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

“If the Pentagon does not adjust to the new realities of warfare, it will lose the ability to deter adversaries’ aggression before it occurs—and perhaps the ability to win wars,” warn @mchorowitz.bsky.social‬, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and @joshschwartz.bsky.social.

What does the Israel-Iran War / Russia-Ukraine War suggest about emerging tech and the future of warfare? Excited to have a new @foreignaffairs.com article w/ @mchorowitz.bsky.social + @laurenakahn.bsky.social on how to bring balance to the (military) force www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

So many questions about this attack, but one big one—Where is the highly-enriched uranium Iran had already produced?? Was it destroyed? If not, that seems like a huge problem for preventing Iran from getting a nuke in the short to medium term. There’s also a long-term issue with the attack (1/3)

How are drones transforming modern warfare? On today's episode of CBC's Front Burner, CMIST's @joshschwartz.bsky.social joins Jayme Poisson to explain how drones have become increasingly important to both sides of the Ukraine-Russia war and in conflicts around the world. www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-p...

How are drones reshaping war in light of Ukraine's successful surprise attack against Russian airbases? I had an opportunity to join the @cbcnews-rss.bsky.social Front Burner podcast (Canada's version of the NYT Daily) to discuss www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-p...

What explains the dramatic swings in US foreign policy we're seeing? Besides a democratic peace, I argue in a new co-authored @apsa-preprints.bsky.social that there is also a Right-Wing Peace and a Left-Wing Peace. Come for the experiments and stay for the MIDs analysis go.shr.lc/4jucw6O

Does politics stop at the water's edge? Nope! Dom Tierney and I argue in a new @apsa-preprints.bsky.social working paper that domestic left-right divisions over culture war issues like immigration and LGBTQ rights are bleeding over into foreign policy. Read more below

Does politics stop at the water's edge? Nope! Dom Tierney and I argue in a new @apsa-preprints.bsky.social working paper that domestic left-right divisions over culture war issues like immigration and LGBTQ rights are bleeding over into foreign policy. Read more below

What explains the dramatic swings in US foreign policy we're seeing? Besides a democratic peace, I argue in a new co-authored @apsa-preprints.bsky.social that there is also a Right-Wing Peace and a Left-Wing Peace. Come for the experiments and stay for the MIDs analysis go.shr.lc/4jucw6O

New submission to APSA Preprints: The Left-Wing Peace & The Right-Wing Peace Check it out here: https://dx.doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2025-pq9zd?rft_dat=source%3Ddrss

yes this is famously how free societies treat their universities

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-tariffs/

Does the madman theory of int'l politics justify Trump's trade war? I'm skeptical because trade wars are two-level games and the madman strategy is often unpopular among domestic audiences. Check out my take in Responsible Statecraft responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-tariffs/

You have to wonder what Mark Carney's other two wishes were after rubbing that bottle

Can you help @mmgarrity.bsky.social and I with research on the treatment of women & girls in #Afghanistan & #Iran? The survey is fully anonymous & will not take more than 5 mins. We would love to hear from you if you're an academic or practitioner! t.co/FNJzVe0mWD

Does investing billions in the F-47—a next generation manned fighter aircraft—still make sense in an era of drone warfare? Probably yes due to its stealth capabilities. Read more in my piece with @mchorowitz.bsky.social in @warontherocks.bsky.social t.co/PNmR1A06vP

First @bsky.app post! @joshschwartz.bsky.social & I are conducting a survey on the treatment of women & girls in #Afghanistan & #Iran. Academics, practitioners, policymakers - we would love to hear from you! The survey is fully anonymous & will only take 5 mins: cmu.ca1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

We know drones are transforming interstate war, but how are they affecting civil war? John Chin, Haleigh Bartos, and I outline a tragic trifecta of impacts they are having in @lawfare.bsky.social: The Onset Effect, Internationalization Effect, and Prolognation Effect t.co/Cun6om1zWz

The proliferation of drone technology has made civil wars longer, deadlier, easier to start, and more difficult to end, write @joshschwartz.bsky.social , John Chin, and Haleigh Bartos.