Will Marble
@wpmarble.bsky.social
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Political scientist at the Hoover Institution at Stanford || williammarble.co
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Will Marble
British Journal of Political Science
1 day ago
NEW - Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - https://cup.org/3YSsX4N -
@rachelmyrick.bsky.social
&
@wpmarble.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
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shira mitchell
18 days ago
blog post: 3rd helpings of the logit shift You have multiple outcomes, but only some have aggregate truth to shift to. How can we calibrate our estimates of p(y_1, y_2 | X) to aggregate data about E[y_1] ?
@wpmarble.bsky.social
and Josh Clinton have ideas !
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Mashail Malik
26 days ago
New paper in
@ajpseditor.bsky.social
. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/đ§”
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Brendan Nyhan
3 months ago
My new op-ed with
@lkfazio.bsky.social
: Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain. Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
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G Elliott Morris
3 months ago
Why most polls overstate support for political violence
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
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Why most polls overstate support for political violence
Misperceptions about the popularity of violence increase public support for it â but you can help change that.
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls-overstate-support-for?triedRedirect=true
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Stan Oklobdzija
4 months ago
Absolutely momentous day for California. We're turning the corner on housing at the very moment America needs us to.
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Job/life update: Today was my last day at Penn, where I've been lucky to teach amazing students and work with great colleagues for the past 3 years. This fall, I'll join
@hooverinstitution.bsky.social
as a Hoover FellowâI'm excited to join a vibrant, interdisciplinary community of scholars there.
5 months ago
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Jennifer N. Victor
5 months ago
I made an event timeline to try to make sense of all the federal overreach at
@georgemasonu.bsky.social
and whoo boy. When you lay it out like this, the executive over reach comes into focus.
open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
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Authoritarians are attacking universities. Here's how it's going at one public school.
I'm publicly documenting an event timeline to help bring order to the chaotic nature of events and help other schools plan the responses they are likely going to need.
https://open.substack.com/pub/misofact/p/authoritarians-are-attacking-universities?r=5itkuu&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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Greg Sargent
5 months ago
Wow. A group of top scholars at Harvard just sent a letter to its president, Alan Garber, warning against surrendering to Trump. Signatories include Steven Levitsky, Dani Rodrik, Ryan Enos, Theda Skocpol, and Steven Walt. Someone forwarded it to me. Read it here:
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Universities often serve as "anchor institutions" that deeply affect the character of their communities. In a new paper, we estimate how (and when) the establishment of a college influences local political and civic life. đ§”
osf.io/preprints/so...
6 months ago
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Nothing more American than getting a head start on work by taking a meeting in your car while you commute to work by yourself
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5 months ago
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Alexander Berger
5 months ago
Very cool paper about how important social networks are in driving movement
conference.nber.org/conf_papers...
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Josh Chafetz
6 months ago
I just posted a new paper on
@ssrn.bsky.social
, titled "The Chadha Presidency". Here's the link, and I'll post the abstract in the next post.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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The <i>Chadha </i>Presidency
<p><span>Where is Congress? Why hasnât it reined in some of the worst abuses of the Trump Administration? This Article argues that a significant part of the ans
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5360131
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Adam Bonica
6 months ago
Been a busy year in the data mines.đ Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem. All charts free to use:
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On Data and Democracy (Mid-Year Roundup): Charting the Assault on American Democracy and A Path Forward
A narrative of a democracy in the balance, told through 29 data visualizations.
https://open.substack.com/pub/data4democracy/p/on-data-and-democracy-mid-year-roundup?r=10322
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Universities often serve as "anchor institutions" that deeply affect the character of their communities. In a new paper, we estimate how (and when) the establishment of a college influences local political and civic life. đ§”
osf.io/preprints/so...
6 months ago
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Nate Ela
6 months ago
Horrendous. In attempting to reclassify Head Start as âwelfareâ rather than education, the Trump administration is trying an end run around Supreme Court precedent that protects undocumented children from limits to education based on their immigration status. đ§”
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Don Moynihan
6 months ago
War on universities, war on science, war on knowledge
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Dan Garisto
6 months ago
NEW: NSF will be kicked out of their building. Announcement will be made tomorrow by HUD Sec. and Governor of VA. HUD will take over the NSF building over the next two years. NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
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Carl Quintanilla
6 months ago
A reminder of how the number of centrifuges in Iran soared after Trumpâs 2018 JCPOA withdrawal.
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Elizabeth N. Saunders
7 months ago
America now has the foreign policy of a personalist dictator. New piece from me in
@foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
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Imperial President at Home, Emperor Abroad
American foreign policy in an age of unrestrained executive power.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/imperial-president-home-emperor-abroad
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Indivisible âđ
7 months ago
There are nearly 100,000 people at the rally in Philadelphia.
#NoKings
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Don Moynihan
7 months ago
She is saying, in effect: "We are going to liberate the city from its democratically elected leadership using the military"
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Brendan Nyhan
7 months ago
What would you say if you saw it in another country? A senator from a coequal branch of government dragged away by security to prevent him from asking a question of a Cabinet official and arrested
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kim yi dionne (she/her)
7 months ago
Eyewitness account from someone arrested at a (small, peaceful) protest in L.A. The arrests of journalists should be particularly alarming:
open.substack.com/pub/smotus/p...
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Arrested in L.A.
My interview with a fellow scholar who was recently arrested for participating in an anti-ICE protest
https://open.substack.com/pub/smotus/p/arrested-in-la?r=uywh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
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On the campaign trail, this was JD Vance's suggestion for making childcare more affordable: "Maybe grandma and grandpa [want] to help out a little bit more, or maybe thereâs an aunt or uncle that wants to help out a little bit more." (
www.vanityfair.com/news/story/j...
)
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7 months ago
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The claim that Trump is just "enforcing immigration law" is ridiculous given that the administration has repeatedly *violated immigration law* by detaining/deporting people without due process.
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7 months ago
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Adam Rose
7 months ago
Just spotted in the NYT: "A New York Times reporter was struck with a nonlethal round by officers late Sunday in downtown Los Angeles. The reporter was treated at a hospital but not seriously injured." That's at least five journalists I've heard of who ended up in ER or urgent care over weekend.
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Some Journalists Are Injured While Covering L.A. Protests
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/us/la-protests-reporter-shot-lauren-tomasi.html
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There's not even a pretense here that people should be arrested for breaking a law â just for opposing Trump politically. Naked authoritarianism.
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7 months ago
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
7 months ago
This is a fever dream. The city is not under migrant occupation. This whole thing kicked off because ICE began an intense operation across the city to raid Home Depots and nail salons and places where random undocumented immigrants might be going about their day working a job.
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Dan Hopkins
7 months ago
Since 2016, 1 notable pro-GOP shift has come from Latinos. How did Latinos shift towards a party taking strong positions against unauthorized immigration?
@wpmarble.bsky.social
& I use population-based panel surveys to help answer that in a new paper:
osf.io/preprints/so...
Quick đ§”
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New paper w/
@dhopkins1776.bsky.social
on immigration attitudes and the GOP swing among Latinos âŹïž
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7 months ago
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please apply / encourage your students to apply!
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7 months ago
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Will Marble
Carolyn E Holmes
8 months ago
How did we get here: Afrikaner Refugees edition. A đ§” (backed up by research)
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Arpit Gupta
9 months ago
đąHeavily revised working paper on AI + Zoning â with
@alexbartik.bsky.social
and Dan Milo, we have a new draft of our paper which expands on our method to understand housing regulations with AI. Incudes a new public data release with more housing regulation data:
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Daniel Laurison
9 months ago
The presidents of 200 US colleges declare: "As leaders of Americaâs colleges, universities, and scholarly societies, we speak with one voice against the unprecedented government overreach and political interference now endangering American higher education." Good!
www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-c...
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A Call for Constructive Engagement | AAC&U
A Call for Constructive Engagement
https://www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-call-for-constructive-engagement
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Roxana Daneshjou, MD, PhD
9 months ago
Stanfordâs president and provost release a statement supporting Harvard.
stanforddaily.com/2025/04/15/l...
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Stanford president and provost back Harvard in funding fight
The president and provost said Harvardâs rejection of government demands was ârooted in the American tradition of liberty.â
https://stanforddaily.com/2025/04/15/levin-martinez-back-harvard-president/?utm_campaign=digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_content=Apr-15-2025?utm_campaign=digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_content=Apr-15-2025
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Will Marble
Eoin Higgins
9 months ago
MIT following Harvard's lead here
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Erica Chenoweth
9 months ago
The 245-year-old American Academy of Arts & Sciences releases a statement rejecting assaults on scholarly and cultural institutions, the rule of law, & open inquiry--and calls on all Americans to "help fortify" democratic civic culture.
www.amacad.org/news/board-s...
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Prof Dynarski
9 months ago
If you bow to these ppl they will just destroy you faster
www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...
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Exclusive | Trump Administration Wants to Install Federal Oversight of Columbia University
In an unusual move, the government is aiming to legally bind the school to changes as they negotiate over federal funding.
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/columbia-consent-decree-trump-federal-funding-2f4c4690?st=3k1RMV&reflink=article_copyURL_share
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Will Marble
Hans Lueders
10 months ago
I recently spoke to the New York Times about how domestic migration and demographic change contribute to the rise of the AfD in Germany. Check out the article here:
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/w...
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How a Demographic âDoom Loopâ Helped Germanyâs Far Right (Gift Article)
Understanding the Alternative for Germanyâs success in Sundayâs elections.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/world/germany-election-far-right-afd.html?unlocked_article_code=1.zk4.uGSP.rRB3Yl3wuUYq
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Hakeem Jefferson
about 2 years ago
Proud that my piece on respectability is officially out at APSR. Itâs open access! The piece matters a lot to me bc it reflects my strong belief that Black peopleâs political & social lives warrant deep study & deserve their place in our fieldâs âtopâ journals.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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The Politics of Respectability and Black Americansâ Punitive Attitudes | American Political Scienc...
The Politics of Respectability and Black Americansâ Punitive Attitudes - Volume 117 Issue 4
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/politics-of-respectability-and-black-americans-punitive-attitudes/7534E0245F5556699151A6020E18D120?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=copy_link&utm_source=bookmark
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Big thanks to Matt for having me on the Science of Politics podcast to talk about my working paper on educational polarization!
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about 2 years ago
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Will Marble
Dan Thompson
about 2 years ago
Private donors gave more than $350M to support election administration in 2020. Many critics argued that these grants swung the election from Trump to Biden. In a new paper,
@apoorvalal.com
and I find that these grants did not provide Democrats a noticeable advantage.
bit.ly/lal_thompson...
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Martin VinĂŠs Larsen
over 2 years ago
â°HOUSING AND LOCAL CONTROLâ° Less local ctrl should translate into more housing, as the power of NIMBY activists wane. But in a new paper, Laura Kettel and I show that a reform that diluted local control over land use in Denmark lead to less housing???
osf.io/5adyg/
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https://osf.io/5adyg/
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Soyoung Lee
over 2 years ago
đšNew paper alertđš #polisky #intsec My paper, "Domestic Distributional Roots of National Interest", has been cond. accepted at APSR! I ask: Why are some international issues perceived as national interests worth fighting for while others are not? While we may think the answer is obvious..1/4
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Gemma Dipoppa
over 2 years ago
Female politicians face an additional gender gap: they are 3ïžâŁ times more likely to experience violence while in office. We study the reasons and consequences of violence in a new paper, summarized in this column
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
With
@mpulejo.bsky.social
and Gianmarco Daniele
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Why does economic decline seem to benefit right-wing parties in the U.S. and Europe? Junghyun Lim and I propose an explanation rooted in the interplay between social arrangements and economic geography.
osf.io/preprints/so...
over 2 years ago
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i think about roasted vegetable revolution and brussels sprouts evolution often
www.bhg.com/news/brussel...
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over 2 years ago
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