Will Marble
@wpmarble.bsky.social
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Political scientist at the Hoover Institution at Stanford || williammarble.co
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Will Marble
Kevin Collins
1 day ago
New in
@polanalysis.bsky.social
,
@wpmarble.bsky.social
and Josh Clinton have an extension of MRP for small area estimation of polling data calibrated with election results. If you toss around the term "logit shift" in casual conversation, this one is for you
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Michael Hankinson
2 months ago
Building affordable housing ➡️ support for funding housing. Nearby homeowners ⬆️ support; renters ⬇️ support. Both are “the policy adjacent”—secondhand recipients & drivers of policy feedback. Forthcoming
@ajpseditor.bsky.social
(
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
) w/ A. Magazinnik &
@msands.bsky.social
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Rory Truex
2 months ago
Yesterday I recorded an ep with
@danieltavana.bsky.social
, one of the few political scientists with an active research agenda on Iran. We spoke at length about the regime, divisions in Iranian society, the prospects for democracy in Iran. One of my best episodes to date. Link in replies.
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This post has some more discussion of other methods for incorporating known ground-truth margins in an MRP framework, based on some validation exercises in
osf.io/preprints/so...
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5 months ago
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Folks doing public opinion research: I wrote an R package called `calibratedMRP` that implements methods to calibrate MRP estimates to known geographic-level ground truth (e.g. election results)
github.com/wpmarble/cal...
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GitHub - wpmarble/calibratedMRP: An R package with tools to generate small-area estimates from survey and administrative data
An R package with tools to generate small-area estimates from survey and administrative data - wpmarble/calibratedMRP
http://github.com/wpmarble/calibratedMRP
5 months ago
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British Journal of Political Science
5 months ago
NEW - Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - https://cup.org/3YSsX4N -
@rachelmyrick.bsky.social
&
@wpmarble.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
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shira mitchell
5 months ago
blog post: 3rd helpings of the logit shift You have multiple outcomes, but only some have aggregate truth to shift to. How can we calibrate our estimates of p(y_1, y_2 | X) to aggregate data about E[y_1] ?
@wpmarble.bsky.social
and Josh Clinton have ideas !
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Mashail Malik
6 months ago
New paper in
@ajpseditor.bsky.social
. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵
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Brendan Nyhan
8 months ago
My new op-ed with
@lkfazio.bsky.social
: Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain. Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
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G Elliott Morris
8 months ago
Why most polls overstate support for political violence
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
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Why most polls overstate support for political violence
Misperceptions about the popularity of violence increase public support for it — but you can help change that.
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls-overstate-support-for?triedRedirect=true
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Stan Oklobdzija
8 months ago
Absolutely momentous day for California. We're turning the corner on housing at the very moment America needs us to.
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Job/life update: Today was my last day at Penn, where I've been lucky to teach amazing students and work with great colleagues for the past 3 years. This fall, I'll join
@hooverinstitution.bsky.social
as a Hoover Fellow—I'm excited to join a vibrant, interdisciplinary community of scholars there.
10 months ago
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Jennifer N. Victor
10 months ago
I made an event timeline to try to make sense of all the federal overreach at
@georgemasonu.bsky.social
and whoo boy. When you lay it out like this, the executive over reach comes into focus.
open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
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Authoritarians are attacking universities. Here's how it's going at one public school.
I'm publicly documenting an event timeline to help bring order to the chaotic nature of events and help other schools plan the responses they are likely going to need.
https://open.substack.com/pub/misofact/p/authoritarians-are-attacking-universities?r=5itkuu&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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Greg Sargent
10 months ago
Wow. A group of top scholars at Harvard just sent a letter to its president, Alan Garber, warning against surrendering to Trump. Signatories include Steven Levitsky, Dani Rodrik, Ryan Enos, Theda Skocpol, and Steven Walt. Someone forwarded it to me. Read it here:
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Universities often serve as "anchor institutions" that deeply affect the character of their communities. In a new paper, we estimate how (and when) the establishment of a college influences local political and civic life. 🧵
osf.io/preprints/so...
10 months ago
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Nothing more American than getting a head start on work by taking a meeting in your car while you commute to work by yourself
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10 months ago
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Alexander Berger
10 months ago
Very cool paper about how important social networks are in driving movement
conference.nber.org/conf_papers...
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Josh Chafetz
10 months ago
I just posted a new paper on
@ssrn.bsky.social
, titled "The Chadha Presidency". Here's the link, and I'll post the abstract in the next post.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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The <i>Chadha </i>Presidency
<p><span>Where is Congress? Why hasn’t it reined in some of the worst abuses of the Trump Administration? This Article argues that a significant part of the ans
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5360131
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Adam Bonica
10 months ago
Been a busy year in the data mines.📊 Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem. All charts free to use:
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On Data and Democracy (Mid-Year Roundup): Charting the Assault on American Democracy and A Path Forward
A narrative of a democracy in the balance, told through 29 data visualizations.
https://open.substack.com/pub/data4democracy/p/on-data-and-democracy-mid-year-roundup?r=10322
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Universities often serve as "anchor institutions" that deeply affect the character of their communities. In a new paper, we estimate how (and when) the establishment of a college influences local political and civic life. 🧵
osf.io/preprints/so...
10 months ago
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Nate Ela
11 months ago
Horrendous. In attempting to reclassify Head Start as “welfare” rather than education, the Trump administration is trying an end run around Supreme Court precedent that protects undocumented children from limits to education based on their immigration status. 🧵
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Don Moynihan
11 months ago
War on universities, war on science, war on knowledge
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Dan Garisto
11 months ago
NEW: NSF will be kicked out of their building. Announcement will be made tomorrow by HUD Sec. and Governor of VA. HUD will take over the NSF building over the next two years. NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
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Carl Quintanilla
11 months ago
A reminder of how the number of centrifuges in Iran soared after Trump’s 2018 JCPOA withdrawal.
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Elizabeth N. Saunders
11 months ago
America now has the foreign policy of a personalist dictator. New piece from me in
@foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
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Imperial President at Home, Emperor Abroad
American foreign policy in an age of unrestrained executive power.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/imperial-president-home-emperor-abroad
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Indivisible ❌👑
11 months ago
There are nearly 100,000 people at the rally in Philadelphia.
#NoKings
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Don Moynihan
12 months ago
She is saying, in effect: "We are going to liberate the city from its democratically elected leadership using the military"
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Brendan Nyhan
12 months ago
What would you say if you saw it in another country? A senator from a coequal branch of government dragged away by security to prevent him from asking a question of a Cabinet official and arrested
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kim yi dionne (she/her)
12 months ago
Eyewitness account from someone arrested at a (small, peaceful) protest in L.A. The arrests of journalists should be particularly alarming:
open.substack.com/pub/smotus/p...
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Arrested in L.A.
My interview with a fellow scholar who was recently arrested for participating in an anti-ICE protest
https://open.substack.com/pub/smotus/p/arrested-in-la?r=uywh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
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On the campaign trail, this was JD Vance's suggestion for making childcare more affordable: "Maybe grandma and grandpa [want] to help out a little bit more, or maybe there’s an aunt or uncle that wants to help out a little bit more." (
www.vanityfair.com/news/story/j...
)
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12 months ago
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The claim that Trump is just "enforcing immigration law" is ridiculous given that the administration has repeatedly *violated immigration law* by detaining/deporting people without due process.
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12 months ago
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Adam Rose
12 months ago
Just spotted in the NYT: "A New York Times reporter was struck with a nonlethal round by officers late Sunday in downtown Los Angeles. The reporter was treated at a hospital but not seriously injured." That's at least five journalists I've heard of who ended up in ER or urgent care over weekend.
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Some Journalists Are Injured While Covering L.A. Protests
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/us/la-protests-reporter-shot-lauren-tomasi.html
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There's not even a pretense here that people should be arrested for breaking a law — just for opposing Trump politically. Naked authoritarianism.
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12 months ago
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
12 months ago
This is a fever dream. The city is not under migrant occupation. This whole thing kicked off because ICE began an intense operation across the city to raid Home Depots and nail salons and places where random undocumented immigrants might be going about their day working a job.
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Dan Hopkins
12 months ago
Since 2016, 1 notable pro-GOP shift has come from Latinos. How did Latinos shift towards a party taking strong positions against unauthorized immigration?
@wpmarble.bsky.social
& I use population-based panel surveys to help answer that in a new paper:
osf.io/preprints/so...
Quick 🧵
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New paper w/
@dhopkins1776.bsky.social
on immigration attitudes and the GOP swing among Latinos ⬇️
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12 months ago
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please apply / encourage your students to apply!
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12 months ago
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Will Marble
Carolyn E Holmes
about 1 year ago
How did we get here: Afrikaner Refugees edition. A 🧵 (backed up by research)
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Arpit Gupta
about 1 year ago
📢Heavily revised working paper on AI + Zoning — with
@alexbartik.bsky.social
and Dan Milo, we have a new draft of our paper which expands on our method to understand housing regulations with AI. Incudes a new public data release with more housing regulation data:
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Daniel Laurison
about 1 year ago
The presidents of 200 US colleges declare: "As leaders of America’s colleges, universities, and scholarly societies, we speak with one voice against the unprecedented government overreach and political interference now endangering American higher education." Good!
www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-c...
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A Call for Constructive Engagement | AAC&U
A Call for Constructive Engagement
https://www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-call-for-constructive-engagement
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Roxana Daneshjou, MD, PhD
about 1 year ago
Stanford’s president and provost release a statement supporting Harvard.
stanforddaily.com/2025/04/15/l...
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Stanford president and provost back Harvard in funding fight
The president and provost said Harvard’s rejection of government demands was “rooted in the American tradition of liberty.”
https://stanforddaily.com/2025/04/15/levin-martinez-back-harvard-president/?utm_campaign=digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_content=Apr-15-2025?utm_campaign=digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_content=Apr-15-2025
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Eoin Higgins
about 1 year ago
MIT following Harvard's lead here
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Erica Chenoweth
about 1 year ago
The 245-year-old American Academy of Arts & Sciences releases a statement rejecting assaults on scholarly and cultural institutions, the rule of law, & open inquiry--and calls on all Americans to "help fortify" democratic civic culture.
www.amacad.org/news/board-s...
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Prof Dynarski
about 1 year ago
If you bow to these ppl they will just destroy you faster
www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...
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Exclusive | Trump Administration Wants to Install Federal Oversight of Columbia University
In an unusual move, the government is aiming to legally bind the school to changes as they negotiate over federal funding.
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/columbia-consent-decree-trump-federal-funding-2f4c4690?st=3k1RMV&reflink=article_copyURL_share
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Will Marble
Hans Lueders
about 1 year ago
I recently spoke to the New York Times about how domestic migration and demographic change contribute to the rise of the AfD in Germany. Check out the article here:
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/w...
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How a Demographic ‘Doom Loop’ Helped Germany’s Far Right (Gift Article)
Understanding the Alternative for Germany’s success in Sunday’s elections.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/world/germany-election-far-right-afd.html?unlocked_article_code=1.zk4.uGSP.rRB3Yl3wuUYq
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Hakeem Jefferson
over 2 years ago
Proud that my piece on respectability is officially out at APSR. It’s open access! The piece matters a lot to me bc it reflects my strong belief that Black people’s political & social lives warrant deep study & deserve their place in our field’s “top” journals.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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The Politics of Respectability and Black Americans’ Punitive Attitudes | American Political Scienc...
The Politics of Respectability and Black Americans’ Punitive Attitudes - Volume 117 Issue 4
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/politics-of-respectability-and-black-americans-punitive-attitudes/7534E0245F5556699151A6020E18D120?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=copy_link&utm_source=bookmark
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Big thanks to Matt for having me on the Science of Politics podcast to talk about my working paper on educational polarization!
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over 2 years ago
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Dan Thompson
over 2 years ago
Private donors gave more than $350M to support election administration in 2020. Many critics argued that these grants swung the election from Trump to Biden. In a new paper,
@apoorvalal.com
and I find that these grants did not provide Democrats a noticeable advantage.
bit.ly/lal_thompson...
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