1 thing about 2016 Trump supporters' foreign policy attitudes--I wrote about for 538 (URL 👇)--is that they weren't especially pro Iraq War back in 2007. But they were more likely to describe themselves as hawks. They weren't so much isolationist as valuing shows of American 💪.

Notice that Dem primary voting in TX is much more predictable based on geography than GOP primary voting. Racial demographics structure Dem primaries & Americans are geographically segregated by race, so... This is something Gall Sigler & I wrote about in the paper flagged 👇.

Interested in the accuracy of primary polls? In this paper (URL in the replies), 3 co-authors & I detail the polling failures in the 2023 Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary, where virtually none of the polls showed Mayor Parker winning. (Spoiler alert: I said "Mayor.")

Curious about the role of ideology in primaries? G Sigler & I published in @polbehavior.bsky.social using survey data & precinct-level results to examine the role of ideology in primary voting. Ideology clearly shapes voting, but successful candidates build cross-bloc coalitions. URL 👇

In September/October 2024, I asked a population-based US sample via NORC about their sympathies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict & their presidential leanings. Here's how the results break down, with presidential support (columns) given conditional on sympathies (rows).

Want to understand young voters? An unparalleled starting point is this new podcast by Penn's own Glynn Boltman. Boltman interviews >60 young people in 3 swing states, uncovering key insights about why many young people don't identify as political (or take polls). URLs👇

Prompted by Jacob Savage's claim (left), I plot white Americans' responses to a survey question about whether the bigger problem is people not seeing discrimination where it *does* exist or people seeing discrimination where it does *not* exist, separating men and women. 1/2

In a survey I commissioned in Feb-Mar '24, I asked: When it comes to improving race relations, do you think it is more important for people to focus on groups' unique experiences or commonalities across groups? Americans from all backgrounds, 2 parties overwhelmingly say "both."

What are the politics of extending ACA subsidies? With a book on public opinion & the ACA (👀 below), I think the tl;dr is "it's complicated." Slightly longer answer: * people *really* don't like losing things * even big impacts on small % of pop. don't show up in nat'l polls

This, from my Feb./Mar. 2024 survey with NORC, shows smoothed average feeling thermometer scores for "Jews/Jewish people" by age for Black Americans, Hispanic Americans & non-Hispanic White Americans.

Can anyone point me to good pieces on American economic policy towards Russia in the 1990s and its impacts, including (but not limited to) Larry Summers' role? Thanks.

Curious how UK citizens' preferences have changed as Reform UK has surged in polls? Just got back the 3rd wave of a @yougov.co.uk panel survey tracing preferences from before the 7/24 election. Very fragmented. Reminiscent of the moment in spring 2019 when four UK parties were thisclose.

"When the waves turn the minutes to hours..."

My $0.02 on grade inflation, which I'm grateful to the @dailypenn.bsky.social for publishing. URL: www.thedp.com/article/2025...

What are the likely impacts if the ACA enhanced tax credits expire? In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions. Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others. 1/3

Any recommendations for research on how political organizations--the Sierra Club, NRA, AMA, AFL-CIO, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, etc.--choose which political strategies to pursue? That is, when do they focus nationally versus at the state level? On legal activism versus ballot measures?

Survey 160 is hiring a survey scientist! Please feel free to reach out to me directly with any questions, and also please share widely www.survey160.com/survey-scien...

My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out. 1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow. www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...

In 2023 & 2024 NORC surveys of Americans, I asked respondents to describe the political parties. In '23, 4% of descriptions of the Dems mentioned that they were elitist in different ways; 3% said the same of the GOP. In '24, 1% said the same about the Dems vs. 4% about the GOP.

In his interview w @jonfavs.bsky.social, @ezraklein.bsky.social asks, "why haven't the tariffs soured the public on Trump?" An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.

What predicts which NYC Democrats backed Cuomo or Mamdani in the primary? I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani. The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.

Grateful the Daily Pennsylvanian asked for my views on the administration's proposed Compact. www.thedp.com/article/2025...

Of course, there are lots of ways that social media can influence politics beyond any direct influence on public attitudes. Rather than shaping what we citizens think, social media could well shape what politicians think we think.

This = from a NORC Feb./March 2024 survey. Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis). Not a strong relationship.

"While this trend is serious and dangerous, it is one of individual radicalization, not a coherent mass movement. It is a whisper aimed at the unstable man in his basement — validating his terror of a murderous opposition." Sean Westwood at Politico: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

A new study by LDI Fellows Sara Handley and Emily Gregory finds rural parents face more hospitalizations & barriers to postpartum care than urban peers, while babies fare better overall. Integrating parent care into infant visits could help. Read more: https://bit.ly/46cEnDM

I remember so much about that morning 24 years ago in NYC--how clear the day was after the storms the day before. How a thin trail of smoke in an otherwise clear sky was the first I knew of the tragedy. How it was followed by an intense cloud once the Towers collapsed. 1/

Despite their well-documented flaws, I think universities are uniquely positioned to help the US think through the complex economic, social, political, legal, ethical, technological, & military questions raised by contemporary and emerging uses of AI.

RIP, Ken Dryden. And my condolences to Sarah and family. www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2...

In my NORC 2024 panel, respondents who didn't match to the voter file were *18.5 percentage points* more pro-Trump than the sample overall. My guess: Trump voters were less willing to give the information needed to match to voter records.

I'm going to sidestep the substantive ?s & broadsides in this Nate Silver post. Its coda does pose a dilemma for academics. I agree social media has been bad for public perceptions of academics. What posts go viral? Those of interest outside academia. www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-... 1/

Grateful to have been quoted in this @perrybaconjr.bsky.social piece in the @postopinions.bsky.social on the politics of Medicaid cuts: img.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Shot (from @politico.com Playbook); chaser (from my book on public opinion & the ACA)

The Senate just passed a major reconciliation bill with no Democratic support (mirroring passage of the ACA, IRA). But would Americans support broad bipartisan compromises? My new paper with Paul Lendway & Gall Sigler--"Public Support for Cross-Issue Compromises in the U.S."--says yes. Quick 🧵

As the Senate GOP moves forward with the reconciliation bill, some (most?) of the lessons from the Affordable Care Act about public opinion--which I highlighted in my book "Stable Condition"--still apply. www.russellsage.org/publications...

My survey also asked NYC Democrats about their views & their sense of Cuomo & Mamdani's views on key issues. Agreement/disagreement on what questions predicted first-round support? * ideology ✅ * crime ✅ * housing ❌ * congestion pricing ❌ * Israeli/Palestinian conflict ❌

Our 2nd wave also asked about potential Nov. match-ups mentioning only Cuomo or Mamdani but not both. Cuomo (D) - 45 Sliwa (R) - 15 E. Adams (I) - 5 Other - 7 Wouldn't Vote - 28 Mamdani (D) - 40 Sliwa (R) - 18 E. Adams (I) - 14 Other - 3 Wouldn't Vote - 25

I wish I had more & more recent data, but here is a table showing wave-2 Democratic NYC respondents' first and second choices. * Cuomo backers way more likely to be undecided on 2nd choice. * 45% of Mamdani backers -> Lander 2nd * Lander voters roughly split between Mamdani, Stringer 2nd

While we're all for a brief moment thinking about polling in mayoral elections, just a reminder that my co-authors & I on this JREP article 👇 found that polling non-white voters & voters with less education can be really hard, especially in primaries. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Here is a plot showing the shifting support across the Democratic mayoral candidates in our @today.yougov.com two-wave panel of NYC Democrats. * Our second wave was May 27-June 16. * Cuomo -> 47% of first-choice preferences. * Mamdani -> 22% of first-choices preferences.

We're getting ready to release some toplines from the second wave of our NYC panel with @today.yougov.com, which included 443 respondents May 27th-June 16th, 2025. Here's a teaser, though. Of those New Yorkers who have a favorite baseball team, Yankees top the Mets 59%-34%.

Second, also in Political Behavior, @dhopkins1776.bsky.social and Gall Sigler use panel data and precinct returns to look at how predictive ideology is in party primary candidate preference. Answer: a little but not very. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

I had the opportunity to write about the politics of the proposed Medicaid cuts for @pennldi.bsky.social, drawing on my book "Stable Condition" about public opinion towards the Affordable Care Act. ldi.upenn.edu/our-work/res...

📃 NEW PAPER 📃 Excited to release a new paper, “Who polices which boundaries? How racial self-identification affects external classification,” with co-authors Maria Abascal, Amada Armenta & @wmhalm.bsky.social. Forthcoming in the American Journal of Sociology. URL: osf.io/preprints/so... Brief 🧵

Since 2016, 1 notable pro-GOP shift has come from Latinos. How did Latinos shift towards a party taking strong positions against unauthorized immigration? @wpmarble.bsky.social & I use population-based panel surveys to help answer that in a new paper: osf.io/preprints/so... Quick 🧵

I had the opportunity to write about the politics of the proposed Medicaid cuts for @pennldi.bsky.social, drawing on my book "Stable Condition" about public opinion towards the Affordable Care Act. ldi.upenn.edu/our-work/res...