I'm deeply honored and grateful to join the 2026 class of #CarnegieFellows! My project will focus on polarization & representation in local governments. I hope this work will also yield insights about how to reduce polarization in state governments & Congress. www.carnegie.org/awards/honor...

PlanScore just added scenarios to play with the implications of various swings in vote share for US House elections. For instance, it thinks current generic ballot (7 point shift from 2024 = D+5 generic ballot) implies about 230 seats for Democrats. planscore.org#!predict7D-u...

We made some big upgrades to the PlanScore website. You can now design your own scenario to examine potential outcomes in state legislative and congressional districting plans. On any new plan, you can change incumbency, vote margins, and the base election that PlanScore uses for the projection.

Working on updates to my elections syllabus. What's the best 538/Upshot/Strength in Numbers style analysis of the impact of inflation/affordability on the 2022, 2024, and/or 2025 elections? Academic literature on this is pretty thin.

Correct link here dynamicdemocracy.us

We're excited to release version 1.0 of the Dynamic Democracy website. It includes updated data on state policy, public opinion, mass ideology, and representation. The website enables you to see how these measures are changing overtime across states and within states. www.dynamicdemocracy.us

Please share - @pewresearch.org wants to hire a data archivist who will be an advocate for data users, helping to ensure that our datasets are easy to discover and reuse by researchers, journalists, and the public. pewtrusts.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/CenterExtern...

I was grateful to be quoted in this great early look at the midterms in today's Washington Post. As I told the reporter, I think the redistricting wars are basically a draw in the short-term, but the long-term loser is American democracy. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Does anyone have recommendations for good texts for undergrads or masters students that compare/contrast the basic institutional setup of state and local governments? (e.g., council/manager systems in local governments)

PoliSci Friends- I'm updating some MRP-based public opinion estimates. Anyone willing to share micro data from recent nationally representative surveys you've run (e.g., CES modules) that ask one or more batteries of binary questions about the American public's issue/policy preferences?

Even accounting for the new congressional maps, a swing like Aftyn Behn's (Trump+22 to D-8.6) would net Dems 259 seats in the midterms. Even if the swing is *half* of tonight's, Dems win the House with 229 seats Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Our new U.S. House map is the first to track nationwide partisan skew in the evolving 2025/2026 mid-decade redistricting planscore.org#!2026-ushouse

I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world? Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)

Love to have this all in one spot. The ANES truly is a gift.

We’re adding this and other maps from this year’s fast-moving midcycle redistricting to our library of current plans: - Ohio planscore.org/library/ohio/ - North Carolina planscore.org/library/nort... - California planscore.org/library/cali... - Texas planscore.org/library/texas/

It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report. Here is the report: aapor.org/wp-content/u... And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...

My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out. 1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow. www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...

Although the Callais case at SCOTUS involves a high-profile congressional redistricting dispute, important to remember that most Section 2 cases (2/3!) continue to involve local government bodies like city councils & school boards. - mostly challenges to at-large systems.

need Sunday reading? explore what's on the ballot next month! I put together the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states. so explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the... and let me highlight three under-radar races, in 🧵 below. ⬇️

This looks awesome.

In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...

I think this is one of the more important articles I've written in my career. Draws on lots of research and data. I hope it can be a reference for people and that it will make a positive impact. Goes out to all Strength In Numbers readers tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...

for the weekend crowd: take a moment today to explore what's on the ballot next month! it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states. explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...

Has someone done an analysis of whether there’s a correlation between the racial composition of districts and Dem’s relative performances vs 2024 in special elections? @the-downballot.com @gelliottmorris.com

PlanScore now has 2024 precinct-level election data integrated into its analysis (mostly from official sources compiled by the NYT for its national map) for about 25 states. You can use it to check the fairness of maps in your state.

@davesredist.bsky.social continues to be an invaluable resource for scholars and practitioners around redistricting.

Really enjoyed this discussion about the impacts of partisan redistricting and gerrymandering for control of Congress.

I remain puzzled by people who think everything is at risk and conclude that we should do exactly what they already wanted www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o... Liberalism used to be obsessed with tradeoffs (the basis of all Slate pitches!) and would mock tradeoff denialism on the right. Not any more.

Hey DC-area friends - you should subscribe to the non-profit Banner's new Montgomery County vertical. They have 8 full-time journalists covering Montgomery County issues. Super exciting! www.thebanner.com/montgomery/

We're slowly integrating 2024 presidential vote into the @planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org

This is a paper I really care about. I feel the core message is very important for social scientists in general, and political scientists in particular. "Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered." (with A+ co-authors)

This also means people should update their view of sentiment regarding Biden economy being all media effects.

Disease prevalence in US states before & after vaccine introduction 🧪 From Edward Tufte & graphics.wsj.com/infectious-d...

The gerrymandering game has only just begun. The 2030s will be worse. Perhaps only then will we get serious about major reforms, such as instituting proportional representation for House seats in states with more than two or three legislators.

What would you say if you saw it in another country?

In 2022, @chriswarshaw.bsky.social Eric McGhee & Michael Migurski published an article in Publius on the 2021-2022 redistricting cycle. The last lines in their article nicely summarizes the likely outcome of this tit-for-tat mid-decade redistricting mess of 2025. academic.oup.com/publius/arti...

Check out CHIP50 newest release of executive approval data, with state-level data on approval of Trump and each state's governor. www.chip50.org/executive-ap...

New Post: "For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power" Add content on statistical power to your social science courses. Not just to methods courses. For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful! www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...

Combining the TX and CA redistricting proposals in my simple house model (tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel - copy & edit!), the net effect is D+0.1 seats in a neutral year, with increasing D gains w/ national vote. Bit more responsiveness away from 50/50, too. TX alone is R+2.1 seats, CA alone is D+2.2

Good baseline for impact of various gerrymandering schemes on 2026 is that generic ballot (Dems +3-4) implies Dem's likely to gain about 15 seats in the midterms (history implies even bigger gains). Rep's unlikely to pickup that many seats through redistricting's. So real impact will be on 2028/30.

Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.

Yet again, Trump is falsely claiming that Democrat-controlled cities like DC are letting crime get out of control. Our research – from cities across the US – shows that this just isn't true @chriswarshaw.bsky.social @dbjones.bsky.social @matttheeconguy.bsky.social

This NYT article uses PlanScore to analyze CAs current congressional map. Exactly the type of application we envisioned when we built PlanScore. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/u...

Here's predicted Trump approval within state, modeled using our latest polls. Overall approve (left) and tariffs (right). Red is approve, blue is disapprove. Note how underwater POTUS is on trade — including in rural areas of both "red" and "blue" states www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-is-u...

Journalists - if you're trying to determine the partisan fairness of new congressional districting plans, check out www.planscore.org.

If we are really in a new era of extreme gerrymandering, it's pretty clear that the 2030 elections are likely to be the most important election of our lifetime. The 2026 elections are important for 2030 though for determining incumbency advantage and preventing more mid-decade redistricting.

Context for gerrymandering debate “How responsive/congruent is state policy with state public opinion” is one of the most studied poli sci questions Red & blue states both passed more 'extreme' policy in recent decades. Blue state policy shifts were aligned with state opinion. Red states’ weren’t

According to PlanScore, the new Texas congressional map would have a +17% pro-Republican efficiency gap, which is more skewed than 97% of congressional maps over the past 50 years. planscore.org/plan.html?20...