New piece from me @chriswarshaw.bsky.social , @devincaughey.bsky.social , and Bernard Fraga. Story: though we've entered a high turnout era, turnout gaps between racial groups have reemerged. Nerdy story: Using publicly available data, we've generated new, reliable turnout estimates over time.

New piece from me @chriswarshaw.bsky.social , @devincaughey.bsky.social , and Bernard Fraga. Story: though we've entered a high turnout era, turnout gaps between racial groups have reemerged. Nerdy story: Using publicly available data, we've generated new, reliable turnout estimates over time.

In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...

Be cautious if... -different polls are telling you different things -results are really surprising -results are about a ~hard to survey population I'd say "Trump unfavorables dropped 20pts in two weeks with young voters" matches about 2.3/3.0 of those statements. today.yougov.com/topics/polit...

What I find frustrating about this particular topic is the number of "researcher degrees of freedom". The party closer to median voters varies not only by topic (immigration vs healthcare) but even varies within topic like immigration (which is one of the foci of this piece).

As the power turns, So do their concerns, Economy's the best, Or it's in distress, Based on party lines.