The Pink Book of #MarginalEffects (aka Model to Meaning) ships next week and I've got a backlog of Zoolander memes. Hope you're hungry for some spam in your timeline. #RStats #PyData

"What I take from Aaron is that the best way to be truly productive on the margin, is to try to build for other people and connect them together."

Whoa—my book is up for pre-order! 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity. tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8

You're very welcome @vincentab.bsky.social P.S. Check out our preprint on an alternative to staring at coefficients: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

Come see our work on using LLMs to track political science research methods at APSA at 4pm today! We find the latest LLMs beat graduate student RAs at extracting information from academic papers

The new {marginaleffects} release for #RStats (0.30.0) comes with two new vignettes: 1. Speed up computation with automatic differentiation (often 10x gains) marginaleffects.com/bonus/perfor... 2. Power analyses with {marginaleffects} and {DeclareDesign}. marginaleffects.com/bonus/power....

This is a paper I really care about. I feel the core message is very important for social scientists in general, and political scientists in particular. "Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered." (with A+ co-authors)

@dingdingpeng.the100.ci and @vincentab.bsky.social wrote an amazing paper about marginal effects. While preparing my advanced statistics and methods class, I (surprisingly) had fun reproducing their Figure 1, adapting it to their Example 1, and ploting the text and arrows directly using ggplot().

If the average power of a test in a discipline is ~20% and 1% of published results are nulls, then there is almost no plausible way to work out the math so you don’t see absolutely *enormous* amounts of selection on significance. Sig results are always over like 100x favoured

can't wait to listen to this!

🚨 Job Alert U. de Montréal 🚨 Assistant/Associate Prof: Politics or IR of China If that sounds like you and you speak some French, please consider applying for this job. Our dept is ultra-friendly, support is good, and Montréal is amazing! Reach out with any Q?s tinyurl.com/y9trt5va

I'd love feedback on this #marginaleffects WIP. In GLMs with many parameters, the marginaleffects 📦 can get a 5–20x speedup (and better SEs) by calling JAX for automatic differentiation. Try the instructions at this link and let me know if you run into trouble. Thanks! github.com/vincentarelb...

Get a new professional headshot at work. Finally see it and think: “Wow, for once I don’t look like I live in a cave staring at screens 24/7.” Teenage daughter glances at it for half a second and says: “Yeah, they erased all your wrinkles. Looks like an AI-generated dad.” why do we have kids?

Preprint and the website by @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and @vincentab.bsky.social are great, and I got inspired to illustrate Bayesian workflow for model checking and comparison *before* model interpretation following their friendship importance example users.aalto.fi/~ave/casestu...

The best thing about my job is I get to work with brilliant people like Julia. We'd love to know what you think of this new paper. All feedback is most welcome!

{tinytable} 0.13.0 for #RStats can now draw interactive tables with sorting, filtering & pages! And the 📦 is still an ultra-simple, powerful, and 0-dep way to create beautiful tables in basically any format: tex, typ, docx, pdf, png, md, etc Gallery & Docs: vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable/

🚀 gratia 0.11.0 is out! Now has a paper in JOSS — please cite 📄 doi.org/10.21105/jos... Experimental parallel processing ⚡ New assemble() for building plots 🎨 Better support for complex families + new diagnostics 🧪 Lots of bug fixes + polish ✨ 👉 gavinsimpson.github.io/gratia/ #Rstats

I doubt other fields would fare much better in this respect. 🫠 Link to the paper: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

😯 I recently came across a sobering paper on here: among 16,649 hypothesis tests reported in political science, the median test has only about 10% power to detect the consensus effect size reported in the literature. Fewer than one in ten tests reach the conventional 80% power threshold.

Last but very definitely not least in the #useR2025 ⚡️talks: @vincentab.bsky.social showing us the power of {tinytable}! IMHO: {gt} is king for fancy reproducible html tables, but {tinytable} should be the go-to for quick formatting and other file formats. vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable/

This workshop is going to be great fun, and I really look forward to meeting everyone! It would mean a lot to me if you signed up!

Today, I created a massive 1000 page-long table. It only took FIVE SECONDS to render the PDF using the tinytable 📦 for #Rstats, @quarto.org and @typst.app ! v0.11.0 of tinytable speeds up Typst support, and brings feature parity with HTML and LaTeX Docs: vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable/

One of the best polisci departments in Canada. The people there are great. Apply or tell your students!

lol. Just spent 100$ in a single day for a stupid vibe coding hobby/experiment. I don't even feel it was an intense coding day... I can't afford this tool. Also, at some point Claude made changes to the code that broke some tests. They tried to change the tests instead of fixing the code.

In our polarized political environment, I’m excited to share my new ASR publication: “Competence over Partisanship: Party Affiliation Does Not Affect the Selection of School District Superintendents”. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

There have been a number of recent articles on statistical power in quantitative political science. This is something that I think deserves more attention and discussion. A short thread of the articles I have read. 🧵

New #rstats blog up! solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-07... This is the first in a new series discussing causal inference with experimental data using multilevel models. My basic case is g-computation is the way to go.

"My First R Package" Next week I’ll be giving a hands-on workshop on #RStats We'll start from scratch and build our very own 📦 Re-use go-to functions, boost reproducibility, and share code with colleagues. I always a blast teaching this and am excited to meet the new group! tinyurl.com/mv2hrd8n

At this point, I might as well -- Here's an infographic showing different ways to include age as a predictor. The top shows two extremes, just as a plain old numerical predictor (imposes linear trajectory) vs. categorical predictor (imposes nothing whatsoever). And then three solutions in between!

Making sense of logistic regression using #marginaleffects? ✅ Using Bayesian #stats with non-flat priors? ✅ Fitting the model with #brms? ✅ Give Shachar's post a read!

Then there is also @vincentab.bsky.social {Rdatasets} package that collects nearly every dataset in all #rstats packages. It's searchable so you can find interesting new things

New working paper! - zikai.li and I look at the problem of assessing pre-trends using one of the "new" DiD methods - fixed effects regression imputation. tl;dr - don't use the same regression you used to impute post-treatment to also impute pre-treatment. osf.io/preprints/so... (1/14)

{tinytable} is a dead simple, ultra-flexible, and dependency-free #Rstats 📦 to turn data frames into beautiful tables: html, word, pdf, latex, typst, markdown, etc. v0.10.0 has cool new features and important bug fixes. Check out the detailed tutorials at: vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable/

Interested in creating your own #Rstats package? Learn how to organize code efficiently, manage dependencies, implement best practices in testing and documentation, and distribute your package with "My First R Package" taught by @vincentab.bsky.social on July 22-23!

I strongly recommend this!👇🏻 Ruth is truly one of the most inspiring scholars I know and she is definitely a super supportive supervisor!

Please send us your nominations for the STATISTICAL SOFTWARE AWARD of the Society for Political Methodology! Self-nominations are encouraged. There are only a few days left before the deadline, but the submission materials are light and free form. @willrhobbs.bsky.social @jonmellon.bsky.social

🚨 Big milestone for Rdatasets 🚨 The web archive now hosts 3400+ free and documented CSV datasets. Fantastic for teaching and testing! And {Rdatasets} is a new #RStats 📦 for easy download and search Web archive: vincentarelbundock.github.io/Rdatasets R 📦: vincentarelbundock.github.io/Rdatasetspkg

We should have orders of magnitude fewer “theories” in PS than we do papers.

There’s much to like in the new AJPS guidelines. Thanks to the Editors for their work—it's a tough job! One thing I'm less keen on is the requirement(?) of simul theoretical and empirical innovation. It pushes us toward endless 1-off theories, tested once with bespoke (oft underpowered) test. 1/2

The Causal Bandits episode with me is finally up! We talked about a hodge-podge of causal inference and methods issues. I already got one positive testimonial from my boss who listened to the first half and liked it!

Noah is *excellent* at what he does.

#rstats Stoked to say that a new release of {tinyplot} is available on CRAN and R-universe. grantmcdermott.com/tinyplot/ Grab it with: ```{r} install.packages("tinyplot") ``` A quick 🧵 showcasing some new features...

📣 July 22-25 I’ll be teaching an online short course on how to read and understand statistics commonly found in medical literature — tell your clinician friends! @stathorizons.bsky.social statisticalhorizons.com/seminars/und...

I just updated my post on equivalence testing with {marginaleffects} so that it's consistent with the latest version. (Some of the notes and code were outdated.) www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2023-08...

Amen - coefficients from different (often non-linear) models don't mean the same thing, but they get compared all the time. The "effect" of interest is a marginal effect for an explicit target population, not a parameter. Software guided workflow could help, plug into tools like marginaleffects.com

The tragic landslide in Blatten gives me the excuse to tell you the story of how we found out Ice Ages existed. It's a cool story and the most important bit is rather similar to what's happening now.

I'm on a podcast! I had a blast talking with @lucystats.bsky.social and @epiellie.bsky.social on @casualinfer.bsky.social! We cover all sorts of fun things: {marginaleffects}, defining estimands, fixed vs. random effects, & how to teach all this stats stuff in accessible ways #databs #EpiSky #rstats

Learn to build, test, and share your own #Rstats package in "My First R Package" with @vincentab.bsky.social, July 22–23! Watch the first hour on YouTube now to see how this seminar can streamline your research and boost reproducibility.

On June 16 at noon (ET), I will hold a super informal Zoom workshop on "Navigating the Tenure Track System" for political science graduate students and postdocs about to start a tenure track position. #polisci To register, pls fill the following form: shorturl.at/vVuQb

I'm super excited to be giving a tutorial at the useR conference (Duke) this summer! Let me know if you're thinking about signing up, or if you'll be in Durham and want to chat over coffee. I'd love to connect with other #Rstats enthusiasts!