Reviews of our Bayesian Workflow book from Bin Yu, David Spiegelhalter, Brad Efron, Christian Robert, Rohan Alexander, and Mine Doğucu! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/16/r...

Just got my author copy of Bayesian workflow! Check out avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... if you want a copy, a discount code, get source code for our examples and stuff.

Osvaldo is translating the Bayesian Workflow book's case studies to Python, very useful in case you are snake person arviz-devs.github.io/bayesian-wor...

Finally, got a copy of Bayesian workflow book in my hand, and it looks awesome! I really like we did get full colors for figures, too

18 Associate Editors resign from Statistics and Computing editorial board: Problems with commercial scholarly publishing, and what does this all mean? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/10/1...

If the editors regroup elsewhere to form a new journal, they hope to publish with a society, Ryder told us, citing journals like Journal of the Royal Statistical Society and Annals of Statistics, “none of which force authors to pay APCs.”

Looking forward to teaching the nowcasting half of our nowcasting and forecast course at SISMID starting today! Some nice (I hope) new content on modelling workflows vibing on the Bayesian workflow book from @avehtari.bsky.social et al. and new session on complex reporting processes.

📘 With the release of our textbook "Bayesian Workflow" (avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...), I figured I'd also share the content of my graduate course on the topic at UBC. 🌎 charlesm93.github.io/stat547/ The course contains overlapping and complementary material, homeworks and reading.

The new loo package CRAN release v2.10.0 has new loo_compare() data.frame output with columns p_worse, diag_diff and diag_elpd, based on paper "Uncertainty in Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation based model comparison" doi.org/10.1214/25-B... See examples at users.aalto.fi/~ave/casestu...

@aloctavodia.bsky.social has been porting Bayesian Workflow book avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... case studies to Python using CmdStanPy, numpyro, ArviZ, Bambi, and kulprit arviz-devs.github.io/bayesian-wor... He is working on porting the rest of the case studies, too

posterior R package has now JOSS paper you can cite, too joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21... with @paulbuerkner.com , Jonah Gabry, @mjskay.com

Excellent paper and I fully agree with their conclusions. We had similar unpublished experimental results but ended up prioritizing other projects. This is a more extensive study of the issue and happy to see it published! @bayesianstats.bsky.social

If you are going to ISBA meeting, you can talk with Anna and @davidkohns.bsky.social about this paper!

📦 The {BayesFR} package is now on CRAN! It allows fitting functional responses by providing dynamical prediction models for use in #brms. Includes many trophic interaction models, and now also multi-species models. #Rstats (1/3)

"We study when model selection is unnecessary or can even be harmful for predictive performance in finite data regimes and.. need for selecting simpler models can depend on prior choice..predictively consistent priors, which keep prior predictive implications stable as model complexity increases." 🧪

New paper "To select or not to select: predictively consistent priors instead of model selection" with Anna Elisabeth Riha, Leevi Lindgren, @davidkohns.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com arxiv.org/abs/2606.22850 Model selection is not a substitute for building good models in the first place 1/

Our paper (with Alain Durmus, Samuel Gruffaz, Miika Kailas and Eero Saksman) on the ergodicity of dynamic path length HMC algorithms appeared in the AAP: doi.org/10.1214/25-A.... The results accommodate the 'biased progressive sampling' path selection used in @mc-stan.org.

Picked this up today for some light summer reading! Looking forward to diving in. Hope to understand at least 25% of it. @rmcelreath.bsky.social @avehtari.bsky.social

My summer reading arrived!! @emilyrcwilson.bsky.social @avehtari.bsky.social @rmcelreath.bsky.social @statmodeling.bsky.social @modrakm.bsky.social

new diamond open-access Journal of Statistical Ecology launched 🎉🎉🎉 jse.centre-mersenne.org @fredbarraquand.bsky.social @oaggimenez.bsky.social @marieaugermethe.bsky.social @vianeylb.bsky.social (apologies to any Bsky editors I missed)

We built an integrated population dynamics model. This time for Baltic grey seals. It was just published Bayesian integrated population model of Baltic grey seals informs on population carrying capacity and the impact of Baltic herring on reproduction. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 1/4

Looks like my summer read has finally arrived. #rstats @mc-stan.org

🔥 StanCon 2026 Early Bird deadline today (AoE) 🔥 discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stancon-20...

A new #bmm release is available on #CRAN. With this version, #bmm now covers basic response time models. This release contains three new models plus several usability features. Here's what's in it 🧵 venpopov.com/bmm/ #rstats #bayes #openscience

Trevor Campbell, Jonathan H. Huggins, Kyurae Kim, Charles C. Margossian: Large-scale empirical tuning and comparison of default optimizers for variational inference https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.07841 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.07841 https://arxiv.org/html/2606.07841

Two recommendations for cmdstanr in case studies: 1) use sample(..., refresh=0) to avoid 80 lines of MCMC progress reporting 2) cmdstanr::print_stan_file() in Quarto with output asis to get color formatting ``` #| output: asis print_stan_file(stan_file) ``` e.g., avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...

You can find a 20% discount code in our Bayesian Workflow book website avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...

You can find a 20% discount code in our Bayesian Workflow book website avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...

Bayesian Workflow book can now be pre-ordered directly from the publisher (shipping date June 26) www.routledge.com/Bayesian-Wor...

Having seen the submitted talks and posters, StanCon 2026 is going to be awesome!

Heck, just a really nice special issue in general on statistical workflows. Focused on Ecologists, but broadly applicable everywhere. royalsocietypublishing.org/rsta/issue/3...

arXiv📈🤖 On Asymptotic Outlier Rejection in Bayesian Mixed Poisson Regression Models Under Extreme Target and Covariate Values By Pia, Vanhatalo

I am currently reading a prerelease version of the Bayesian workflow book by @statmodeling.bsky.social, @avehtari.bsky.social, @rmcelreath.bsky.social et. al . It is SO GOOD. I will have a lot more to say when I finish it but it is one of the most practical stats book I have ever read.

Miles Moran (Oregon State University), Rob Trangucci (Oregon State University), Lisa Madsen (Oregon State University) Bayesian Inference of Mixing and Transmission Heterogeneity in Stratified Disease Surveillance Models https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29081

15 new articles on statistical workflow! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/29/1...

Thinking about how this might go Listener: My chains aren't converging Andrew: Your model is bad Aki: Your parameterization is bad Richard: The Buddha teaches us that numerical integration is suffering

StanCon 2026 poster deadline tomorrow! www.stancon2026.org @avehtari.bsky.social @mc-stan.org

Full day Stan tutorial at Modern Modeling Methods (M3) this summer in New York (22 June 2026) statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/21/f...

Bayesian Workflow book editor emailed "I am pleased to inform you that your title has now been sent to print! The anticipated publication date is June 26" (this has been the expected date for a long time, but now with higher probability)

Stan embedded Laplace was a long project and happy that it's finally released. We are not competing with INLA and TMB software, as they are orders of magnitude faster and scale better with data size for models that you can implement with them 1/

CmdStan 2.39 has been released! - embedded Laplace approximation - new yule_simon distribution - gamma_lccdf more stable - optimization convergence status in output - length-1 tuples See more at blog.mc-stan.org/2026/05/19/r...

🔥 StanCon poster deadline and early bird deadline is coming up 🔥 discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stancon-20... @mc-stan.org @avehtari.bsky.social

Jonah Gabry's talk “Bayesian Workflow and the Software That Shapes It” today May 19th 13:00 UTC can be followed online!

Today is the last day to self-nominate yourself for Stan governing body!

In "Uncertainty in Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation based model comparison" doi.org/10.1214/25-B... we showed when LOO-CV elpd_diff and se_diff normal approximation uncertainty quantification in model comparison is well calibrated. We have now merged a related PR to loo R package 1/

We are looking for Ecological Statistician to work on long-term biodiversity and ecosystem functioning data jobs.helsinki.fi/job/Helsinki...

If you have benefited from Stan, you can contribute back to the project also by nominating yourself to be part of Stan Governing Body (you don't need to be a developer) discourse.mc-stan.org/t/elections-...

some Bayesian cognitive modeling students are having trouble seeing the industry-relevance of the methods (my worked out examples are research based, since it's what I do). Tips for good industry examples? @ajordannafa.com @natehaines.bsky.social @rmcelreath.bsky.social @avehtari.bsky.social

All of this work was done using my new R package hmetad, which implements this measure in a neat & accessible interface! metacoglab.github.io/hmetad/

In a new preprint w/ @tianqizhan.bsky.social & @smfleming.bsky.social, we developed a new measure of metacognitive bias (over/under confidence in individual decisions)! doi.org/10.31234/osf...