this might be a bit of a long shot, but is anyone here willing to share documents of an ERC (starting) grant? or any insights into the process, things you wished you knew before…? i would be very thankful as i think it is quite different from programs i am familiar with so far. ☀️

*cracks knuckles* okay so you know how the media has a problem with taking snippets of scientific studies out of context and writing articles which mislead the public? now imagine a computer program is doing that when you ask it questions about scientific literature but also it makes stuff up.

Stan / CmdStan 2.37 release! blog.mc-stan.org/2025/09/02/r... - sum_to_zero_matrix type sums to zero across both rows and columns - simplex and *_stochastic_matrix types should be now faster and more stable - new functions exposing the built-in constraint implementations 1/2

A SQL query goes into a bar, walks up to 2 tables and says “Can I join you?”

Destroy this myth. Please share if you have visited and researched in a library this past year! RT And give a shout out to your favorite library you have ever visited.

📢 Interested in excess mortality methods, and want a challenge? I'm organising the "One Epidemic, Many Estimates" (1EME) project! Register *now* as a many analyst team (submissions due 15 March 2026), and then join us at LSE for a workshop on 21-22 May 2026! (1/n) www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...

Great to see this happen and a good opportunity to caution against some pitfalls in many-analyst studies: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Can't imagine a better team to pull this off, so do join

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in Gaza this morning have killed at least 15 people, including three journalists, one of whom worked for Reuters and one who worked for Al Jazeera

New paper with @richarddmorey.bsky.social now out in JASA, where we critically examine p-curve. Below is Richard’s excellent summary of the many poor statistical properties of p-curve (with link to paper). I wanted to add some conceptual issues that we also tackle in the paper.

Paper drop, for anyone interested in #metascience, #statistics, or #metaanalysis! @clintin.bsky.social and I show in a new paper in JASA that the P-curve, a popular forensic meta-analysis method, has deeply undesirable statistical properties. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 1/?

this is really good -- completely aligns with where ive come to myself on this after much difficulty and costly error

Malnutrition is on a dangerous trajectory in the #Gaza Strip, marked by a spike in deaths in July. The crisis remains entirely preventable. Deliberate blocking and delay of large-scale food, health, and humanitarian aid has cost many lives. Statement from WHO. www.who.int/news/item/27...

Haha, so chatgpt's new agent feature has a warning that if you send the agent to do stuff, it may give bad people access to your data. Necessary, I guess, but if this is true it'd make it fairly useless, no? I mean to me the main use case would be giving it access to sites requiring login.

2nd day of conference has been more informational and familiar to me, but others report learning a lot. My takeaway right now is, and this is not news, is open access movement has done a lot of damage while increasing access to increasingly poor research. Not even a hot take I don’t think

Twitter Is Dead, X Is Elon’s Personal Propaganda Platform, Where Grok Checks His Feed Before Answering Last week, Elon Musk's Grok AI started spewing extreme antisemitism, calling itself "MechaHitler" and pushing conspiracy theories about Jewish people. But that wasn't the most revealing part of…

I think we really ought to consider the dramatic rise in popularity of podcasts and video essays as conclusive disproof of the 'everyone hates lectures' idea in pedagogy. Turns out that, even when faced with many alternatives, many people just like to be told something at length.

New on the blog: Using Bayesian tools to be a better frequentist Turns out that for neg. bin. regression with small samples, standard frequentist tools fail to achieve their stated goals. Bayesian computation ends up providing better frequentist guarantees. www.martinmodrak.cz/2025/07/09/u...

How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...

New #rstats blog up! solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-07... This is the first in a brief series where we use {brms} to learn {Stan} code. Many thanks to @fusaroli.bsky.social and @stephenjwild.bsky.social for their helpful reviews.

NPR's Gaza producer faced Israeli military fire, private U.S. contractors pointing laser beams at his forehead and masked thieves as he tried to get food from a U.S.-supported group.

This is from Haaretz, an Israeli news site. It proves that Israeli concentration camp soldiers have been ordered to deliberately shoot at unarmed Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid. No Western media will run this story or even refer to it, because real Western journalism is mostly dead.

Venn diagram

Anyone got a a code snippet in R for bootstrapping the sum of several values, when each value has their own standard errors? Or any other good measure of calculating the standard error of a sum when you have the standard errors of the parts? I've been told the delta method doesn't work well here.

this is my very favourite comment from the R code base: github.com/r-devel/r-sv... (this more than 28 years ago - I didn't feel like doing the archaeology to trace the code back through a file reorganization that was done in 1998 ...)

Today's round of "is ChatGPT still racist AF" I asked it to make a graph showing the effects of an illegal & dangerous skin lightening product. Chatbot knows it's dangerous, but thinks it makes you smarter. And overall: the boosts to intelligence, confidence, etc outweigh serious health risks. 1/8

NEW: Statement from the PCI RR Managing Board on the withdrawal of Infant and Child Development as a PCI RR-friendly journal, and the decision by Wiley to refuse preprints that have been peer-reviewed by @peercommunityin.bsky.social / @pci-regreports.bsky.social Read here ➡️ osf.io/tn8mh

"Compiles R functions annotated with type and shape declarations to provide extremely fast performance and robust runtime type checking. Supports both just-in-time (JIT) and ahead-of-time (AOT) compilation. Compilation is performed by lowering R code to Fortran."

Kowall et al. published a multi-analyst epi study on the effect of marital status on cardiovascular disease (link.springer.com/article/10.1...). What can be learned from this effort? Check out our new commentary! link.springer.com/article/10.1... with @mendelrandom.bsky.social & Marcus Munafò

“But even if you do not “produce” something, eg as a birder who just likes to watch birds, it is still something people value in you. That is because Spinozist full expression of yourself is virtuous.”

I have a huge request for my readers: Trump's tax and spending bill will be moving through the Senate. Senators can invoke the Byrd Rule to try to remove the anti-trans Medicaid ban and EHB changes. You can find and call your senator here and ask them to do that. Please share as well.

"Empirically, I find that a parsimonious model accounting only for these issues can fully explain observed replication rates in experimental economics and social science, and two-thirds of the replication gap in psychology. I conclude with practical recommendations for replicators."

A year ago I read a preprint by Gelman & Brown (doi.org/10.1177/2515...) The preprint was so poorly researched it forced me to release a 150 minute critique of 'open science' I am now honoured to be a co-author on Peter Aungle's careful, principled rebuttal: drive.google.com/file/d/1advI... 🧵

Antiracist feminists for trans rights

Mid cis white stats guys for trans rights

StanBio Connect 2025 free online conference May 30 stanbio.org ... Stan in biomedicine including drug discovery and development, bioinformatics, medical devices, health economics, real-world evidence, and decision-making under uncertainty

I wrote about research, translation and conjecture, knowledge and delusion; about Linear Elamite, Rumi, economics, and our own @andreamatranga.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...

🎓 Get PAID to co-create open-access teaching materials! We're launching a funded initiative to make open science education more inclusive and accessible beyond elite institutions and the Global North. Contribute a set of materials and earn €400. 🧵

If you are an EU citizen, please support the initiative to ban conversion therapy! Only 2 days to go. If it reaches enough support, the European parliament has to have a discussion on the proposal. eci.ec.europa.eu/043/public/#...

How do we build theory in cogsci? traditional physics w its rich data and experimental possibilities is often used as parangon. We argue historical sciences provide an equally rich source: "Lessons for Theory from Scientific Domains Where Evidence is Sparse or Indirect": doi.org/10.1007/s421... 🧵 1/

My point in this is that, if you didn't know, Malcolm Gladwell is the sort of person comfortable talking confidently on topics about which he knows less than nothing, while pretending he's found what everyone missed. So you should ignore everything he says (his bomber book is also garbage). /end

datamethods.org is a place where methodologists meet subject matter experts for in-depth discussions + Q&A related to study design, measurement, data analysis, interpretation, and more. Now on a new server with the latest version of discourse software. Come join us there. #StatsSky

Has anyone looked at whether a lack of subgroup heterogeneity is predictive of effects generalizing over time or contexts?

REPOSTS APPRECIATED ‼️ Please if you're a queer european person or simply a decent human being, sign his petition to help fight LGTB+phobia in EU. Trans people are being persecuted, it ends in a month and in less than a minute you can help people to not lose rights eci.ec.europa.eu/043/public/#...

New visualization tool alert! The vayr package version 1.0.0 is now on CRAN. It contains position adjustments for ggplot2 that help with overplotting in pleasing ways. My favorite is position_sunflower(). - install.packages("vayr") - alexandercoppock.com/vayr #rstats #ggplot2 #dataviz

I regret to inform you that this form was made in great haste and does not verify whether you entered valid contact information.

Friendly reminder that I’m hosting four brand new online course modules this year, each focusing on a particular Bayesian modeling technique, www.eventzilla.net/e/advanced-b.... As I prepare the material I am becoming especially excited about the non-standard presentation of survival modeling…

OMG they’re building physical systems with known ground truths to test algorithms in controlled but non-simulated environments: causalchamber.ai I was not prepared for this level of steam punk,

OK I had announced this before but forgot to say that Andrew Gelman would be joining Nancy Cartwright and myself as well. Short idea talks, lots of panel discussion and Q&A. Join us on April 25th to discuss RCTs, replications, and scientific inference. sites.google.com/view/cepbi/t...