Happy birthday to Mischka cat, runt of his litter, first of his name, bane of spiders. Born on cinco de mayo.

At the height of the media storm about this poor whale, the satirical song "Sprengt den Wal" (Blow up the whale) was streamed millions of times. Something something end of history

JAGS has catalyzed so much sober, reusable model development. Really an amazing project that just keeps going.

Interesting fact about this piece and related ones in the series, Munch himself never called them "Vampyr", just described them as lovers in an embrace. Others saw something more sinister and the vampire label stuck. See citations en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_an...

The normative fraud that Errington describes is something I've seen my whole career. A biologist once told me, if p is very small, it can't be a false positive. Teams condition on null being false, see anything that makes p small as truth-seeking. These traditions spread bc they get you published.

Vampire II (Vampyr II) 1895–1902 https://botfrens.com/collections/90/contents/1158121

Cooking with Mischka: Halal chicken and rice. Marinated chicken: lemon yogurt olive oil salt pepper, 24 hours in fridge. Rice with cumin and turmeric. Chopped lettuce and tomato. Mischka snoozed but enjoyed some chicken.

wait what

my reaction when @devezer.bsky.social lobs a new preprint into the timeline

I am sick at home this week, but still doing online meetings. Today I was asked about omnibus tests: should we do them? I said "no plz would you kiss your mother with that null hypothesis!". But it would be nice to have some article or book chapter to share to back this up. Any ideas?

Showing this photo of an elegant 2.7 kg feline to my massive 6.5 kg parlor tiger and explaining why he cannot have a second lunch

German news audience (election reporter vs whale reporter)

Sunny and warm weather has arrived. Time for my spring wardrobe

Please repost: My department at USC is hiring for a teaching-track faculty position. We are looking for someone principally to teach statistics for biologists, but there will be opportunities for other courses in statistics & algorithms applied to biology usccareers.usc.edu/job/los-ange...

Sunday comfort food: Meat pie. Seared beef, onion garlic carrot celery beef stock wine. Simmer for 4 hours. Short dough bottom, puff pastry top. Baked 40 minutes.

Cooking with Mischka: Shakshuka. Onion garlic chili tomato olives cumin coriander olive oil. Mischka sleeping but lending moral support

True subsidizing demand has never been tried?

🚨 Two major iDiv calls are now accepting applications! 🔹 iDiv Synthesis Centre Working Group Call 🔹 iDiv Fellowship Programme Call 🔗 More info, application criteria + deadlines: www.idiv.de

Giving a short presentation later today to my institute's external advisory board. This slide summarizes the last 3 years of my department's efforts

🌟Nominations are now open for the 2026 SORTEE Commendation Awards! Know a project promoting #OpenScience in Ecology & Evolution (workshops, tools, outreach & more)? Projects can be local or global, team-based or individual Submit a nomination here: sortee.org/awards/

Bro was buried with the most boring part of the Iliad, like 6 pages of naming captains and the towns. There's an interactive map of the passage, for shared obsession: ships.lib.virginia.edu/neatline/sho...

Use an unacceptable color #obliquestrategies

Finally finished! Never thought I would enjoy reading a textbook front-to-back, yet I did, immensely. The best thing about the book is getting you to think of data generating processes. The flexibility of Bayes in creating scientifically valid equations is incredibly motivating. #rstats #statsky

Leipzig wildlife. These are called „beaver rats“ and they are canonically buddhist

„The only remaining way to mitigate this situation is to reduce the number of applications.“ They’ve tried nothing and are all out of ideas? Whether this is good or bad, it is unjustified. There is no impact analysis, no engagement with research on funding procedures. Government by vibes

Reposting this old thread on the "Pervasive findings of directional selection" from ancient DNA. While the authors extended their results in various ways, I think many of these points still stand.

This classic experiment was underpowered. It should be replicated with more cats www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9Xt...

Pinchy!

Excellent new special Issue on the challenges raised by the ancient DNA of kinship Special Issue: Kinship Trouble: Traversing Interdisciplinary Boundaries between Archaeology, Archaeogenetics and Socio-cultural Anthropology www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

I now have a primitive interactive browser interface to the workflow graph. I can get this to support an interactive design mode I think. I just want to say, and let me be very clear so that no one misunderstands: javascript f'ing sucks.

I think this has been known since at least 1935? If I understand right, nothing unique about choice of operator in new quoted paper. (www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...)

Post Doc at Uni Tübingen! 100% position for 3 (+3) years; they're looking for somebody to analyze large-scale longitudinal datasets in education research. Expertise in machine learning is an advantage, commitment to research transparency desirable 😌 proficiency in German beneficial but not required

Nice clear presentation of commonplace meta-analysis failure mode: Pooling coefficients that mean different things, because original models had different adjustment sets. A coefficient gets its meaning from the whole model, not just from the predictor variable it multiplies.

Very excited to announce that the #BayesianWorkflow book by @statmodeling.bsky.social, @avehtari.bsky.social, @rmcelreath.bsky.social et al publishes in June! routledge.com/9780367490140 #RStats #DataScience #Bayesian

Cooking with Mischka: Yellow curry with chicken. Garlic onion chili tomato graram masala curry powder turmeric coconut milk ginger, blend with hand mixer, add seared chicken. Mischka enjoyed chicken bits.

In German and Dutch, the word for village is Dorf or dorp. Such a cute word, gives us the great "Dorfdisco". Where is the English version? French "village" replaced English "throp" or "thorp" (ðorp). Lots of place names in UK that end in -thorpe. But those were named by Vikings I think.

The paper's framing: Human violent conflict has been explained by different theories in different places and times, including cultural identities. Chimps have violence but don't have cultural identity, so maybe cultural identity isn't so important to human conflict! Illogical Darwinist slop.

Most data scientists learn Bayesian stats from textbooks. Few get to learn from the people who built the library. This June, @fonnesbeck.bsky.social Niall Oulton & Robert Zinkov are running a 2.5-day hands-on PyMC workshop in London. Reserve your spot: dub.link/oaudJAt

A fan of my course sent me a 100-sided die. This thing is huge and of course I wonder now: Are there even larger dice?!

More details about the Bayesian Workflow book and case studies now available on the book web site avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... (but you still need to wait a bit for the book)

I would have preferred to have the "draw the rest of the owl" meme on the cover, but this will do. Seems like it is on schedule, and we'll leave some typos so you know we didn't write it with AI.

Post-Easter stock. I have exercised no discretion in what is in this pot. Duck bones at bottom and then chaos. Bonus pic of Mischka starting at raw duck legs

Cooking with Mischka: Easter torte. Mischka supervised from above. Short dough cake, quark, sugar, whipped cream, 800g strawberries. I defend the topping arrangement as self expression

Type system in place and mostly working. Here is workflow graph with logically implied but missing nodes shown in the dashed boxes.

how I feel when open science initiatives choose to publish in Nature

This is extraordinary why am I just now hearing about this

Design document growing larger. I need to code some more core functions, like type checking and test coverage. But I'll get this bird online.

Preprint servers are more complex than people think. arXIv chief Ramin Zabih shows their workflow at the Newton Institute. 1/n

These event-study designs are surely biased, maybe upwards (timing of birth is endogenous) or maybe downwards (bad controls). The reporting ignores the identification problem. I suggest everyone read this before endorsing yet another event-study design: www.rfberlin.com/network-pape...