And we're live, Lecture A1 is online. Introduction to Bayesian workflow, generative models, estimands, estimators, estimates, error checking, beginnings of probability theory and Bayesian updating. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztbY...

This is what research data analysis is like, and it's about time we started supporting it

Getting my new slides in shape. I have it on good authority that the typeface I have chosen is "woke" (aka sans serif)

Es ist wieder soweit! It's time to take down and responsibly dispose of your xmas tree. Please consider the Christmas tree cannon

I wrote about the endless temptation successful people feel to justify and feel justified in a clearly toxic system. Happy new year. open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...

Firecrackers starting already and Mischka does not like

Doing a bottom-to-top close edit now for errors and clarity. Just about 100 pages to go, not quite yet insane. Like some wetware LLM, I have been trained deeply on the distinctive text stylings of my individual coauthors. Feel I could produce novel utterances in any of their voices. Almost there!

This is a nice one, from Lathe of Heaven I think

Linneaus classified raccoons in the same genus as bears (Ursus). Today we classify them with the weasels, as is somehow more fitting. A 2018 vid about Sjupp (and his tragic end!): www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSxV...

Dominant Curve by Vasily Kandinsky, 1936 https://botfrens.com/collections/212/contents/137241

I was looking for a completely different quote, but found this fun line from Lovecraft ("The Unnamable"): "'Common sense' in reflecting on these subjects, I assured my friend with some warmth, is merely a stupid absence of imagination and mental flexibility." This is how I feel about sqrt(-1) btw

Including the old black cat adoptions survival analysis example as a case study in the forthcoming Bayesian Workflow book. This is presented as a whole incremental workflow with simulation, validation, and model comparison. Just now went through code and extra-commented and cleaned. Getting close!

Can mosquitos fly in the rain? Can wheat grow against the grain? Can an eagle forget how to fly? Can a hedgehog defy to be shy?

I have stripped the duck carcass, roughly handled the vegetable cuttings, and begun the big post-xmas stock

I got up and started writing about SUTVA violations. I hope this unfortunate event doesn't spillover to influence anyone else.

okay we are all tired of the debate over whether "Die Hard" is a Christmas movie. But have you considered "The Bourne Identity"? Jason Bourne is a Christlike figure who is resurrected and must atone for his sinful past. Also: There is a Christmas tree.

There is an unfortunate error in this newly published @globalchangebio.bsky.social paper. The caption for this image reads "upper panel with dragon icon symbolising all tetrapod" but this is incorrect. That is either a wyvern (with two wings and two legs) or it is not a tetrapod (6 limbs).

An almost prefect florb

This smells distinctly like collider bias and/or selection bias and/or regression to the mean... You simply can't select teen prodigies, and world class athletes rom databases, and go run regressions without serious consideration of the selection process!

Our university press team asked me a few questions in regards to the new chair on Mental Health & Data Science. I sketch a bit of a vision on the importance of transdisciplinary work, and some obstacles to overcome. www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/news/2025...

I love these @jocelynanderson.bsky.social tufties, peak performance

I am just learning of this 2015 retraction, adding to my "science as amateur software engineering" files. Seems they classified missing values as obs outcome of interest (divorce). Classified 32% of sample divorced, rather than true 5%. retractionwatch.com/2015/07/21/t...

These openscience.nl grants are wonderful. Lavaan is a stand out in quality and impact. Open software supports so much research in academia and industry, but exists in some unincentivized gray zone. At the same time, so much software is poorly documented and tested. Fix with recognition and support

Should I teach my 16yo son pharmacokinetics so that he understands the lag at which alchohol metabolizes in the human body? Seems like the most rigorous approach

At some point "som", which I think just means "body" in chromosom ("color-body"), morphed into meaning something like "huge science stuff" Chromosom (1888 DE) > Genom (1920 DE) > Genome (1930 EN) > Exposome (20?? EN)

The Max Planck Society has begun an exploratory round table for open science. We are drafting some recommendations to leadership. Still a long way to go! But here are my notes on the most recent draft, just so you all know how I am trying to steer things.

We're doing the final sprint, and I think we're able to send the PDF of the forthcoming Bayesian Workflow book to the publisher in the next two weeks (500+ pages), which would mean it would be published some time next year

When I take train journeys, I sometimes write things. Things that I probably shouldn't publish

English ruins everything

On my way today to Göttingen to examine @benkawam.bsky.social for his phd defense. I request your digital prayers (likes) to the BAHNGODS so that I may travel to and from on schedule. Ben is trying to get animal social network folks to do formal causal modeling. See e.g. doi.org/10.1371/jour...

If you have to read anything about the prospect of “automating scientific discovery,” “agents for science,” or integrating LLMs into scientific pipelines, please let it be this essay by Kevin T. Baker: artificialbureaucracy.substack.com/p/context-wi...

Great to see a position like this advertised

The Department of Psychology @uzh-ch.bsky.social has an open position for a tenured Lecturer (Research) «Psychological Data Management and -Stewardship» jobs.uzh.ch/job-vacancie... #psychjobs

Great role advertised at Oxford: Research Metrics and Open Infrastructure Lead my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...

I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students. I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

An American Tree Sparrow (left) and a Dark-eyed Junco (right) having a discussion about who gets to look for food in this patch of snow.

Just submitted corrected proofs for my first book! Publication (open access) is scheduled for late Feb 2026 (but the preprint is already available if you don't want to wait: osf.io/preprints/ps...)

There is this fantastic photo of Max Planck from 1901. The source on wikipedia is a dead link, but I assume there is a great story behind this one. I believe his black-body radiation law was published in 1901, so maybe this was taken after celebrations. Anyway if anyone knows more plz plz link

Far down in Saloni's post, an example worthy of becoming a standard reference argument against extending the y-axis to zero (or showing full range)

I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students. I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

A close-up of a Tufted Titmouse with his/her tuft blowing in the wind. I love their black eyelashes. The thin black feathers around the break are rictal bristles, which are common in many birds but their size and placement differs between species.

I liked one bird photo and now my "For You" feed is 50% birds. I am satisfied

Advantage of waking up early to give someone comments on a manuscript.... I spotted this beauty strolling across my yard. I stepped outside to get a better angle and we stared at each other for at least a minute before it moved on

full #caturday energy, Mischka declines all invitations

Bangalore airport is really cool

"But in the third book of the series, Dragons Gone Wild, Koboldt turns the focus to using dragons as a deterrent for ecological threats." As Wilhelm von Humboldt postulated, language uses finite means to express an infinity of ideas. (winteriscoming.net/8-new-fantas...)

Striped by Vasily Kandinsky, 1934 https://botfrens.com/collections/212/contents/137488

I have never heard of this Hans Eysenck guy, but it seems he was kinda a big deal in personality psychology? If I were going to read one (short!) thing to understand the position and importance of his work, what would it be? Asking out of genuine interest.

In case you have missed Simine Vazire's excellent webinar yesterday, here is the link to watch it online: youtu.be/_vb1CNwC3CM Thanks again @simine.com for staying up so late and thanks to the audience for the great questions!

Does "survey experiment" only mean a survey with randomized alternative wordings? My naive outsider perspective is that this severely limits what can be studied. I imagine there has been much discussion of that. Would love to read, seeking recommendations plz