This seems considerably less prevalent at state R1s than private R1s, which is another reason we should be prioritizing state R1s more.

Chat how Carl Schmitt’s side do in World War II?

One of these platforms has been home to a decade-long project to bring curated, high-quality and in-depth public history content into people's feeds every day. Just saying.

I just use Texas because that's where I know the numbers. Basics are the same. I think they'll try something in Houston, Austin, DFW. But it won't work. If armed thugs shooting citizens hasn't stopped Minnesotans from surrounding every kidnapping squad they see, it won't stop people from voting.

Remarkable performance.

Flemish paviser, last third 15th c. (BnF, MS Fr 2799)

98 out of 435 House districts have a Partisan Voting Index between R+5 and D+5. Another 90 are +6 to +10. My math says you'd have to roughly double ICE and CBP's current combined headcount to send *one* goon to each polling place in each of those 188 districts. They. Do. Not. Have. Enough. Goons.

I understand folks are scared but I want you to think about the mechanics of this. There are more polling places (>100k) than ICE and CBP agents combined, so they can only pick a few districts to try to intimidate. Now what happens when cell phone footage of that goes online in the early morning?

Me, worried that a book I want to recommend on the blog is going to be at Academic Book Prices and then checking and seeing it has a reasonably affordable kindle version.

This isn't abolition, but this includes a lot of good demands. Prohibiting Kavanaugh stops that the Court expressly allowed, requiring state consent for large operations, allowing states to sue DHS for any violations (!) Oh, and removing Kristi Noem.

It really is remarkable the consistency with which authoritarian regimes transition from, "our policies will work for the people" to "the people must work to enable our policies." It isn't surprising, of course - if anything it is shockingly predictable. But still well worth noting.

Final note on this, I'm seeing people responding, "Stancil with communication skills!? LOLz" and...my dude. You know his name. You know what he stands for. You know what town he calls home and what he wants to do for it. He has annoyed you into winning. Communication skills.

Somewhat ironically, this is a problem that both some leftist and populist-rightist movements share: their ideology *requires* them to believe that they are the authentic voice of The People and so they are ideologically constrained from recognizing that their ideas are not, in fact, popular.

I find the @whstancil.bsky.social backlash strangely fascinating. At its core it seems to be a desperate effort by folks further to the left to avoid having a liberal (with communication skills) become the face of their movement. But, to be honest, winning was always going to require that.

once again these things boil down to “is your group a bohemian cultural identity” or “is your group actually trying to do things?” and the key tell is whether your activity centers on policing of in-group behavior or whether it centers on, again, tangible goals

Just one more dumpster bro, all those government thugs in tactical gear will see that we really mean business if we set just one more fire. We're just one fire away from The Revolution, I swear to you. Anyway, read theory.

Counterpoint: Democrats want ICE razed more thoroughly than Carthage in 146 BC, the ideological territory in which it operates salted so thoroughly it never grows again, and every single one of these goons in front of a judge to face justice for their crimes.

Remember the incident where DHS claimed officers shot a guy because he attacked them with a snow shovel? Yeah. It didn't happen. They shot him through the door of his own home. And then arrested him. And then lied about it. Again. And they almost shot some kids in the process.

My goodness, what a map.

We've entered the 'one weird trick' phase of the national budget, because both of the actual solutions - raising taxes and/or cutting spending - are unpopular. We will try to do neither for as long as possible, with the result that we will have to do both far more than we'd like.

Trump to Harvard: 2 billion $ NYT: Harvard to pay 2B$ Harvard: no Trump: 1B Harvard: no NYT: Negotiations intensify Trump: 200 million NYT: Harvard-Trump reach deal Harvard: no Trump: 0$ Harvard: ok NYT: Harvard not paying! Trump loses. Trump: How about 1B$ Harvard: no NYT: Negotiations resume!

MN is 80% understaffed vs normal number of AUSAs?!?

I guess what I'm trying to say is that there are tactical actions to protect vulnerable people and mitigate CBP abuses, and there are strategic actions to document and broadcast CBP abuses to the rest of the country. I don't see where dumpster fires fit into this picture

The question is what precautions here look like. To me, it seems clear there needs to be an effort to track DHS goons close to the election and to be prepared to put (lawful!) crowds outside of (the legal limit of) polling places in key districts to discourage any ICE shenanigans or intimidation.

this particular line is maybe the best statement of purpose i have seen for those of us who want a more militant opposition to this administration

True, of course - the Med being the Med - but I want to say how much 'gutter racist' is a fitting term. It is appropriately low, vile, base. The gutter racist, however rich he may be, is lower and dirtier than the poorest upright working fellow who cares for his neighbors regardless of color.

One downside of winter is my that home office is in the basement and when it gets cold the cats abandon this floor. Alas, older (1970s) house struggles with temperature differentials between floors.

read theory (specifically, @bretdevereaux.bsky.social 's series "The Queen's Latin")

Fun from Latin class last week learning indirect statement - we were doing some composition exercises (English -> Latin) on the board. And watching the dawning horror as I roll out, "Marcus said that he thought he heard Lucius denying that there was a rumor." Four nested indirect statements.

he is going to demolish the kennedy center and there will be a hole in the ground for three years

This week on the blog! By request of the ACOUP Senate (that is, patrons on Patreon at the patres et matres conscripti level), a very brief introduction to the Late Bronze Age Collapse, a collapse even more severe than the fall of the Roman Empire in the west! acoup.blog/2026/01/30/c...

Uh, that's a ::counts:: 31 point swing from R+17 to D+14? Of course state level special election - all the caveats - but goodness the GOP ought to be concerned.

So believe me I understand this is deeply frustrating and unfair, but a march that does everything right and still gets tear gassed is a successful march that is winning. A lot of the strategy of protest is luring the authorities into engaging in obviously, transparently unjust uses of force.

This week on the blog! By request of the ACOUP Senate (that is, patrons on Patreon at the patres et matres conscripti level), a very brief introduction to the Late Bronze Age Collapse, a collapse even more severe than the fall of the Roman Empire in the west! acoup.blog/2026/01/30/c...

A reader (who wished to remain anonymous for reasons of naturalization status) passed along to me their version of a Battle Hymn of Minneapolis, which I now share with you. 'Tis, as they say, a banger. justpaste.it/battle-hymn-...

Dwight D. Eisenhower, unironically the greatest American general, well deserving of an entry in any modern list of 'Great Captains.'

and if called on it today, they say the left went too far and so this is justified backlash and so it’s our fault

Apropos of nothing, if anyone ever wants help with ancient world building for a game ... I would definitely be up for that! And would probably be the first time I ever impressed my kids

My therapist: Don’t worry, Merovingian cursive is not real, it can’t hurt you Merovingian cursive:

If I may have the temerity to paraphrase Frederick Douglass, I will unite with anybody to fuck ICE and with nobody to do MAGA shit.

Given how many polling places and how few ICE and CBP field agents there are, they'd have to be pretty targeted doing this, but also the internet would be functionally instantly slathered with videos of brawls and arrests at polling places which is how you get an AmeriMaidan scenario.

I never, ever want to hear again from certain quarters about a free speech crisis on campus. I would accept apologies for being useful idiots.

Which part of “as he died to make Men holy, let us die to make men free” did you not understand?

Let me reiterate: THEY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH GUYS TO PERSECUTE LARGE NUMBERS OF DISSENTERS. What they are doing, instead, is using fear and paranoia as a force multiplier: they don’t have to persecute us if we keep ourselves home because someone told us we can’t walk in public without being terrified.

I see we're at the 'arresting opposition journalists' phase of I Can't Believe It's Not Fascism!

oh its crabs in a bucket time again but they're worried that one of the crabs is being too successful at publicizing their supposedly shared cause.

This @warontherocks.bsky.social piece (warontherocks.com/2026/01/gaza...) on Israel's conduct in Gaza is devastating and ought to put solidly to rest the undead claim that Israel was exercising some sort of exceptional restraint. I look forward to the folks claiming that studiously not reading it.

"What if actually we want a world without aristocrats, without lords?" id evidently a viewpoint he is simply too dense to consider. Also, this, like everything else turns out to be gender. It's all gender. Everything is gender.