First-ever US airstrikes in Nigeria put the second Trump admin’s 2025 combat actions at: —Nigeria—tonight’s strikes —Yemen—1,000+ strikes (Mar-Apr) —Somalia—120 strikes, 1 ground raid —Syria—78+ strikes, 3 ground raids —Caribbean—11 strikes —Eastern Pacific—20 strikes —Iran—3 strikes —Iraq—1 strike

Trump cares so deeply about Nigerian Christians that last week he banned them from getting any business, tourist, student, or immigrant visas. Merry Christmas!

Reminder:

Trump on Christmas: “Tonight, at my direction as Commander in Chief, the United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria.”

Was watching CNN because my grandmother had it on and they did a Sportscenter style Top 10 of this year’s climate disasters. It was actually pretty good!

"Mr Miller’s belief that seven decades of immigration has produced millions of people who take more than they give—an assertion that has been refuted by years of economic data—is at the heart of the Trump administration’s campaign to restrict immigration and deport immigrants already in the country"

The visa lottery is just a very special thing timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

A few months ago I wrote about how MrBeast is aid's biggest spokesperson. Not exactly who I'd choose, but we have to face realities: MrBeast's clean water launch video got 70 times more views than Obama's top pro-USAID tweet timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/mrbeast-is...

Haven't seen this noted yet: MukhammadAziz Umurzokov, one of the two students killed in the Brown shooting that Kristi Noem used to justify suspending the diversity visa lottery, was an Uzbek immigrant. 50% of Uzbeks who get green cards do so through the visa lottery. That's who Noem is punishing

This is a *great* read. Seriously, take a few mins & read it.

Apparently the Irish constituency for the visa lottery is still a thing

I always feel weird about self-promotion, but this weekend I published something that I put a lot of work into and I honestly think it's really good, and I hope you'll read it timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

My Hamnet take is that losing children is horrible and too many children die in too many parts of the world and that it doesn’t have to be that way

"More than anything else, the diversity visa lottery gave people a "right way" to come to the US. Kristi Noem just announced she was stopping it." timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

Fox News (!!) poll showing Climate Change is a top 10 concern for voters — slightly more than illegal immigration. www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

For billions of people around the world, they had one legal path to come to the US available to them. This week the Trump admin closed it off. I’ve spent three years following one of those people’s stories. Here’s what it meant for Angel timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

The visa lottery was the only way the vast majority of the world could come to the US legally. The Trump administration is using the pretext of the Brown shooting to suspend it. timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

In this year of horrors, it would be easy for the suspension of the visa lottery to fade into the background. But for billions of people, it was the one thing providing a "right way" to come to the US. I wrote about one of those people timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

Highly recommend this piece weaving together the origins, history, and personal of the Diversity Visa program the Trump Administration has finally found its pretext to purportedly cancel.

I appreciate the people who have been raising attention to this and related issues, and hope this will be of interest to you @carlygoodman.bsky.social @akalhan.bsky.social @unlawfulentries.bsky.social @daralind.bsky.social @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social @immlawachall.bsky.social

The diversity visa lottery is the closest thing to a "line" to immigrate to the US that exists. Yesterday Kristi Noem suspended it indefinitely. I've spent the last few years following someone waiting in that line. Today I published his story timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

In Benin, a sign shows where to register for the visa lottery for the U.S. The diversity visa lottery is where dreams are realized for visas and green cards. Of millions of applicants, only 50,000 win. Djissa and his wife got visas in 2021. @timhirschelburns.bsky.social's interviews him in 2022.

If there's going to be a "face" to the visa lottery, let it be someone like Djissa, not a single violent Portuguese man. A few years after coming to the US, Djissa's kids speak perfect English to each other. Djissa just finished army basic training timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/an-intervi...

Beautifully put by Parkland and Brown shooting survivor Zoe Weissman, who has experienced more violence than anyone ever should www.cnn.com/us/live-news...

An utterly pretextual decision, and one that stops the most important visa program you’ve never heard of. For most of the world the diversity visa lottery is the only thing ensuring there’s a “right way” at all. And Noem’s justification actually makes even less sense than you might think:

I wrote about the collective amnesia that takes hold as people get further along in their political educations, and how the incentives tend to push towards speaking towards an ever more niche audience timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/forgetting...

Part I on the Marshall Plan is live! Some crazy facts: -It took 13% of US budget -Over 90% came as grants -Truman did it in an election year w/ GOP Congress -Before it passed nearly 1/2 of Congress visited Europe to see postwar destruction -It led fairly directly to OECD www.bu.edu/gdp/2025/12/...

Apropos of nothing I'm thinking abt how Matt Yglesias wrote an article whitewashing the Rana Plaza disaster the day it happened, and 2 days later he wrote an apology article saying that what he thinks really matters is helping foreigners by reducing greenhouse gas emissions + increasing immigration

The wealthiest person in the world says you shouldn’t give away money because in the future everyone will be rich

Conservatives and liberals can come together around this call for #GlobalCrisisRelief in the form of international funds that don’t add to countries’ debt. Great to see high-profile Republicans taking a stand for this. #SpecialDrawingRights #SDR www.oklahoman.com/story/opinio...

We at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center are looking for pre- and post-doc fellows for next year! Applications open through Friday. (Links below) I hear there might be some academics looking for jobs...

Looking for a book to read over the holidays or give as a gift? Here are ten books that were formative for me timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/10-books-f...

Jesus

Earlier this year I interviewed Djissa, who came to the US from Benin after winning the visa lottery. Last week he completed US Army basic training. Bc Benin was added to the travel ban list, it's now impossible for people to come the way Djissa did timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/an-intervi...

NEW: Humanitarian officials staged a last-minute plea to Trump officials at their fancy hotel to re-start food aid $ for a huge refugee camp in Kenya. The Trumpers blew it off and babies starved. @annamaria.bsky.social & Brett Murphy www.propublica.org/article/keny...

NEW: Without USAID funding to help buy food for refugees, the World Food Program rushed to prioritize families based on need, determining that only half the population would get food. Refugees learned which half they were in from a number stamped on the back of their ration card.

This is horrible. Trump and his crew shut down USAID, which has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, and they had no idea what they were doing or what would be the consequences. Completely immoral. (From the VF story on Susan Wiles.) www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...

This is extremely important

Something worth noting here: Ahmed al Ahmed had had multiple minor run-ins with the law. Anti-immigrant people would have said he’s exactly the sort of person who should be deported. But because he got citizenship, he was on hand to do something more heroic than any of those people ever will

In DC, Trump officials celebrated the decimation of USAID with a sheet cake. In South Sudan, USAID budget cuts closed a health clinic in the middle of a cholera outbreak. Tor Top had to take his sick mother to the hospital, 8 hours away. She died on the way. www.propublica.org/article/usai...

Just devastating reporting from @propublica.org on US aid cuts to South Sudan, the resulting cholera epidemic, and the callousness, hubris, and cruelty of ppl like Jeremy Lewin + Pete Marocco. Once again, Rubio's claim that "no one has died" is shown to be a farce www.propublica.org/article/usai...

The hero of Bondi: Ahmed el Ahmed, a 43 year old fruit shop owner from Sutherland. He grabbed the gun off one of the terrorists shooting at Jews during a Hanukkah celebration. Ahmed was then shot in the leg and shoulder by another terrorist. He’s being treated in the hospital and expected to be OK.

2025: The year the US gave up on climate, and the world gave up on us

So Trump puts his name on the US Institute of Peace, does a splashy peace ceremony between the DR Congo and Rwanda, and counts it as one of the wars he "ended" as he collects the FIFA Peace Prize...and within a week 200,000 more people had to flee violence in DRC www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Very poor framing for this piece. I think Trump II is such a challenge for conventional analysts compared to Trump I because it has added a racist civilizational layer to its narrative of grievance over free trade and NATO burden-sharing. And that's a language many people aren't equipped to parse.

Ever noticed the exact date immigration went from noble pioneers heroically setting out to weave their story's thread into the vibrant tapestry of a new nation to a vile invasion by unwashed savages looking to mooch off our golden birthright tends to be the day after the speaker's ancestors arrived?

New piece for @phenomenalworld.bsky.social on Chile's green industrial policy efforts and its role in the global energy transition. Can resource-rich countries become relevant players in the upcoming global green economy? Full analysis: www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/lit...

I always find this chart clarifying. $75/day is $25,000 per year. $125/day is $45,000 per year. Find yourself on the chart. If you can't afford to give some money away, how many people really can?

lol www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/m...

I wrote this for Giving Tuesday, which was, you know, Tuesday...but if you're looking to make end of year donations, I wrote about some worthy organizations and how to think about them! timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/who-should...