To go along with our paper "Bayesian inference of reproduction number from epidemiological and genetic data using particle MCMC", Alicia Gill released an accompanying R package, EpiSky. You can install it using devtools::install_github("alicia-gill/EpiSky") github.com/alicia-gi...

To go with our Bayesian Analysis paper "Speeding up Inference of Homologous Recombination in Bacteria", we made a version of the ClonalOrigin package that is callable from R, and which contains the improved RJMCMC method for inference. You can find it at github.com/richardge...

We are currently advertising for two Teaching Fellows and four Tutors in the Department of Statistics. Deadline on Thursday 23rd April. www.jobs.ac.uk/job/D... www.jobs.ac.uk/job/D...

Felipe Medina Aguayo, Xavier Didelot and I had our work on "Speeding up Inference of Homologous Recombination in Bacteria" published in Bayesian Analysis. We use new parallel annealing-based reversible jump MCMC to obtain more accurate inference for the ClonalOrigin model. projecteuclid.org/jo...

We still have a few places at our CRiSM and LMS workshop at Warwick on 16-17th April on "Environmental Modelling meets Infectious Diseases", exploring the links between these two fields. The schedule is now finalised and available on the website http://go.warwick.ac... Visit the website to register.

Leonardo Ripoli and I arxived the paper "Sequential Monte Carlo with active subspaces". Within an SMC sampler we adaptively identify directions in which the likelihood is not informative, and use this to improve MCMC efficiency at each iteration of the SMC. arxiv.org/abs/2411.0...

what function is the biggest jumpscare to you. i'll go first, clear choice for me at least it's obviously the gamma function.

Last year Leonardo Ripoli and I archived the paper "Improved MCMC with active subspaces". We identify directions in the parameter space in which the likelihood is not informative, and explore ways of making MCMC more efficient by focussing on the directions where it is. arxiv.org/abs/2501.0...

OWABI⁷, 25 March 2026: Robust Simulation Based Inference (11am UK time) Speaker: Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon University) Title: Robust Simulation Based Inference warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc...

Pretty remarkable that Bethell's first three hundreds as a professional cricketer were in an ODI, a Test and a T20I (I think).

So I pleased to announce the conceptual spawn of FigTree: PearTree (acronym still to be finalised). If you want to dive right in it is hosted as a web app here: artic-network.github.io/peartree (click the “Example...” button for immediate candy and then click every button you can find).

The next OWABI seminar will be given by Shreya Sinha Roy (Warwick), who will talk about "Prequential posteriors" on Thursday the 26th February at 11am UK time. arxiv.org/abs/2511.1... www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi MS Teams link: teams.microsoft.com/...

In July Shu Huang (with me, Massi Tamborrino and Adam Johansen) posted a paper "Inference for Diffusion Processes via Controlled Sequential Monte Carlo and Splitting Schemes". arxiv.org/abs/2507.1...

Ian Roberts published his first paper "Bayesian Inference of Pathogen Phylogeography using the Structured Coalescent Model" with me, Jere Koskela and Xavier Didelot. We describe an efficient reversible jump MCMC method for inference for the structured coalescent. journals.plos.org/pl...

This year the European Meeting of Statisticians will be in Lugano, Switzerland, 24 - 28 August 2026. The deadline for abstract submission is 31 March 2026. https://www.ems26.org/

Tomorrow's OWABI seminar by Louis Sharrock (UCL), who will talk about "Sequential Neural Score Estimation: Likelihood-free inference with conditional score base diffusion models" (29th Jan, 11am UK time). Join: teams.microsoft.com/... Meeting ID: 388 990 396 214 49 Passcode: f3Dh22XL

"Annealing Strategies for Variance Reduction in Balance Heuristic Estimators" by Felipe Medina Aguayo and I is accepted in Stats and Computing. Multiple importance sampling uses multiple proposals to reduce variance. We use annealing to significantly further reduce variance. https://rdcu.be/eqe8j

Today is the deadline for contributed talks and posters for our event on Environmental Modelling meets Infectious Diseases. Early-career researchers successful in their application to give a talk will be funded up to £200 for their travel costs. go.warwick.ac.uk/env...

Shreya Sinha Roy's first paper (joint with me, Christian Robert and Rito Dutta) is on "Generalized Bayesian deep reinforcement learning". We use a neural network as a model in Bayesian reinforcement learning, trained using a generalized prequential scoring rule with SMC arxiv.org/abs/2412.1...

*Environmental Modelling meets Infectious Diseases: from Mathematics to Applications* Upcoming workshop in Warwick Stats, supported CRiSM, LMS and RSS. We aim to promote the transfer of ideas between the environmental modelling and infectious disease modelling communities. http://go.warwick.ac...

New paper accepted in JRSSC with Alicia Gill, Jere Koskela and Xavier Didelot on "Bayesian Inference of Reproduction Number from Epidemiological and Genetic Data Using Particle MCMC". We supplement case data with a dated phylogeny inferred from sequence data arxiv.org/pdf/2311.0...

New paper from Shreya Sinha Roy, me, Christian Robert and Rito Dutta on "Prequential posteriors". We use a a predictive-sequential loss function to fit deep generative forecasting models for the purpose of data assimilation, with waste-free SMC for fitting the neural network arxiv.org/abs/2511.1...

Warwick Statistics is recruiting two Assistant Professors! We are looking for a researcher with a strong track record and outstanding promise in one or more areas of Statistical Methodology and Theory, Computational Statistics and Machine Learning. Closing date: 25th Jan 26 warwick-careers.tal....

The 1st OWABI talk of the Season will be given by François-Xavier Briol (University College London). who will talk about "Multilevel neural simulation-based inference".

Warwick Statistics is hiring an Assistant Professor in Mathematical Finance! The deadline is 23rd November.

I'm very much looking forward to speaking at the upcoming workshop on MCMC at Newcastle. Details here: sites.google.com/vie... I will speak about MCMC with active subspaces arxiv.org/abs/2501.0...

New work on inference for partially observed (hypoelliptic) SDEs in frequentist/Bayesian regimes. Splitting schemes & controlled SMC (+ bridges) to recover the (pseudo)likelihood of interest arxiv.org/abs/2507.14535 Work led by Shu, with @adamjohansen.bsky.social and @bayesianstats.bsky.social

Starting now!

The final OWABI seminar www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi of the season will feature two selected talks and will take place live from BayesComp bayescomp2025.sg/! The talks will take place on Thursday the 19th June at 1pm UK time (note the different date and time!), and will be given by

Recently-completed Warwick PhD student Ian Roberts, with Xavier Didelot, Richard Everitt and Jere Koskela, have had the paper "Bayesian Inference of Pathogen Phylogeography using the Structured Coalescent Model" accepted in PLOS Computational Biology journals.plos.org/pl...

Cricket fans! This is the best Fantasy Cricket site: bsky.app/profile/cric...

So excited for the County Championship tomorrow.

I will be a supervisor for an upcoming PhD! (with Kirsty Hassall and Jacqueline Stroud) The opportunity is an EPSRC DLA Interdisciplinary Scholarship: "Unravelling the sound underground: Detecting and estimating earthworm abundance using low-frequency vibrations". warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc...

Sign up to the mailing list at ivory-cuscus.lnx.war... to receive the link to the talk.

The next OWABI seminar www.warwick.ac.uk/owabi is quickly approaching, being scheduled on Thursday the 27th March at 11am UK time. Our next speaker is Meïli Baragatti (Université de Montpellier), who will talk about "Approximate Bayesian Computation with Deep Learning and Conformal Prediction".

PhD position at Surrey: Reconstructing EVolutionary histories for organisms on EArth and stars in gaLaxies (REVEAL). www.surrey.ac.uk/fee...

I will be one of the supervisors on this. Please pass on to any UK students who may be interested.

The programme will be complemented by discussion and exercise sessions so to maximise interaction among participants and speakers. Participants have the chance to present their work in short-talk sessions. To join the school, please register at warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc... (deadline 18 May 2025)

It will feature 4 lecture courses, by: Martin Hairer, EPFL (Switzerland) and Imperial (UK) Nina Holden, NYU Courant (US) Hubert Lacoin, IMPA (Brazil) Richard Nickl, Cambridge (UK) who will explore: stochastic PDEs, random planar maps, directed polymers and Bayesian inference for time evolution PDEs

The P@W Summer School - Recent Trends in Probability and Statistics will take place at the University of Warwick, 7-11 July 2025. The school will engage PhD students and researchers with cutting-edge topics at the frontiers of current knowledge in Probability and Statistics. http://warwick.ac.uk...

You can also check out out website at warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc...

Our next talk will be on Thursday the 27th February at 11am UK time. Our next speaker is Ayush Bharti (Aalto University), who will talk about "Cost-aware simulation-based inference". To receive the link, sign up here: listserv.csv.warwick...

Big news: you can now submit your papers to the first ever international conference on probabilistic numerics (1-3 September, Southern France)! Don’t miss the chance to get in on the ground floor of this exciting new field! probnum25.github.io/submissions

Don't forget #AABI, the Symposium on Advances in Approximate Bayesian Inference is coming to Singapore!! Co-located #ICLR2025 Workshop Track: February 7, AoE Proceedings Track: February 7, AoE Fast Track: February 18 / March 14, AoE approximateinference.org/call/ #ML #Bayes #GenAI

Amazing opportunity: a few PhD positions in Health Analytics, Epidemic Modelling and Health Economics available with myself and colleagues from @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social, @ccmid.bsky.social and @ukhsa.bsky.social. Please apply/circulate widely!

Bayes Comp 2025 will take place at the National University of Singapore June 16-20, 2025. Registration is now open, and you are invited to submit abstracts for posters and contributed talks (dl Feb. 17). Register by March 15 for early bird rates. More details here: #Bayesian #ISBA bayescomp2025.sg

A reminder of our talk this Thursday (30th Jan), at 11am GMT. Paul Bürkner (TU Dortmund University), will talk about "Amortized Mixture and Multilevel Models". Sign up at listserv.csv.warwick... to receive the link.

Two interesting upcoming events: Data-Centric Engineering at Cambridge on 15th Jan sites.google.com/vie... and the 1st International Workshop on Bayesian Approach in Civil Engineering in Hong Kong events.polyu.edu.hk/...

Apply now for our MSc in Statistics! From 2025 entry, we've introduced an innovative structure, offering a choice between a broad Statistics MSc or specialised pathways in Data Science, Finance, and Probability. For more detail, see warwick.ac.uk/fac/sc...

🔊 Super excited to announce the first ever Frontiers of Probabilistic Inference: Learning meets Sampling workshop at #ICLR2025 @iclr-conf.bsky.social! 🔗 website: sites.google.com/view/fpiwork... 🔥 Call for papers: sites.google.com/view/fpiwork... more details in thread below👇 🧵