So little was known 18 years ago when I started researching climate comms. I'm blown away by how much we now know. This study, led by the incomparable Jan Voelkel with his all-star band, and released today in @natclimate.nature.com confirms that many distinct message strategies can work...

Although its very cold at the moment in the UK, 2025 was both the warmest (with a mean temperature of 10.09°C) and sunniest (1648.5 hours) on record. Here is a climate and weather #dataviz summary for the last year. #climatechange #globalwarming.

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has revealed that he’s helping Francesca Gino, the honesty researcher who was fired from Harvard for research misconduct. “We will provide whatever resources she needs to clear her name,” he wrote. New from me: www.chronicle.com/article/an-i...

New tutorial: Bayesian Dynamic Path Analysis in @pymc.io Why do New Year's resolutions fail so reliably? The statistical answer involves time-varying causal effects and masked mediation. Full tutorial (code + math + Odyssey metaphor): nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w... 🧵 Thread Below

#AcademicSky #PsychSciSky Also... Americans consider Psychology among most interesting disciplines to study! (Explains why psych depts have healthy numbers at most unis)

Life cycle of a method 1. scrappy theory 2. killer empirical application (Angrist/Krueger for IV, Card/Krueger for DID, Lee for RD etc) 3. Deep, general theory 4. Review papers 5. Bad empirical applications 6. Empirical reviews Proximal has skipped 2 entirely. Is this typical for epi methods?

THIS THIS THIS. ALL OF THIS THIS is why faculty resist technological strategies for teaching. There is no engaging with Edtech without this context

A satisfying read! I must concede that I am fairly ignorant of the broader causal literature, and am a priori particularly suggestible to the claims herein. arxiv.org/abs/2512.23408 'Probabilistic Modelling is Sufficient for Causal Inference' - Bruno Mlodozeniec, David Krueger, Richard E. Turner

Spent some time today playing around with the #Rstats package orchaRd 2.0 It offers a really nice way of visualizing #metaanalysis, especially moderator meta-regression models (with both categorical & continuous moderators!) #dataviz 🔗 daniel1noble.github.io/orchaRd/ 📄 doi.org/10.1111/2041...

Glad to see the conversation continues to grow and data speak to the enormous class bias that is built into bans on standardized testing, which end up only exacerbating them more. x.com/garrytan/sta...

An observation from Theodore Dalrymple so relevant to so many segments of our society these days — where people go along with things they often don’t believe and which are anyway false.

I do the same general thing: 1. Quarto website per class with syllabus/assignments/slides/readings/etc. (see www.andrewheiss.com/teaching/) 2. Discord for class forum 3. LMS only for having students turn stuff in + distributing answer keys & article PDFs Super nice to not deal with the clunky LMS

File systems, object stores, and databases - oh my! russpoldrack.substack.com/p/storing-re... The latest in my Better Code, Better Science series

This was a fantastic policy—we need more like this in other cities. Many people defended the status quo, but then liked the policy a lot once it was implemented. There was far too many policies like this—held up because people can’t imagine an alternative.

> We archived around 86M music files, representing around 99.6% of listens. It’s a little under 300TB. This is the largest music metadata database that is publicly available. Many interesting 📊 charts on this page that can only be made by having this scale of data. annas-archive.li/blog/backing...

A propos of some stuff, a brief thread on randomized experiments. 👇 We like randomization as it provides us with a powerful way to solve a big problem: identification. Identification should not - cannot - precede other parts of the research process: theory, conceptualization, operationalization.

I also want to share some resources that were created for the community based on AMPPS papers. First, there is a new article out in the APS Observer that puts together 9 practical guides for research methods including papers and tutorials www.psychologicalscience.org/publications...

Some days ago a student struggling with her master’s thesis e-mailed me, asking me about partial least squares structural equation modeling. I told her I can only tell her not to do that, and then she sent more details.>

AMPPS recently accepted a new paper "Registered Replication Report: Johns, Schmader, & Martens (2005)" on stereotype threat (osf.io/preprints/ps...); full paper is forthcoming on our website). AMPPS is now soliciting Commentary articles on this paper. @psychscience.bsky.social /cont

Here's the link to our ever-expanding Collections! journals.sagepub.com/collection-i...

Wake up babe, Applied Causal Graphs workshop just got announced. I attended the previous versions of this event which were absolutely *fantastic.* It's the place to be for all causal graph connoisseurs!

All I want for Christmas is... published nonsignificant findings and more Registered Reports? www.psychologicalscience.org/publications...

The package formerly known as papercheck has changed its name to metacheck! We're checking more than just papers, with functions to assess OSF projects, github repos, and AsPredicted pre-registrations, with more being developed all the time. scienceverse.github.io/metacheck/

Finally, @bjoernhommel.bsky.social's and my paper introducing the SurveyBot3000 is officially out in AMPPS. It's a fine-tuned language model that guesstimates correlations between survey items from text alone. Not perfectly, but useful for search, for example. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

🚨 New paper alert 🚨 Using LLMs as data annotators, you can produce any scientific result you want. We call this **LLM Hacking**. Paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825

What should psychology journals do about this? What’s a reasonable policy/standard to apply to research using online data collection methods?

Just gave my last talk of the year! 2025 was quite packed, I gave talks about: - the age-period-cohort problem - making rigorous causal inference more mainstream - mediation analysis - marginaleffects - causal graphs (x10) If you're curious, check out my slides here: juliarohrer.com/resources/

Ultimately, it may have taken several papers and much back-and-forth to come to a similar conclusion. And, most likely, we might never have come to a genuine agreement if we had not engaged in this adversarial collaboration together. I think it's a great approach to science!

🚨 Now out in Psych Science 🚨 We report an adversarial collaboration (with @donandrewmoore.bsky.social) testing whether overconfidence is genuinely a trait The paper was led by Jabin Binnendyk & Sophia Li (who is fantastic and on the job market!) Free copy here: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/7JIYS...

Dana-Farber Cancer Institute has settled a lawsuit filed under the False Claims Act, admitting researchers used images and data that were “misrepresented and/or duplicated." As part of the agreement, @sholtodavid.bsky.social will receive $2.63 million, or 17.5 percent of the $15 million settlement.

You remember that Nature Aging paper about how multilingualism protects against accelerated aging? Well…

Thanks @janhove.bsky.social for taking the time to check the paper — something that paid editors at Nature, as well as unpaid reviewers — apparently did not. Also shows once more that providing statistical code should be mandatory for every single paper. janhove.github.io/posts/2025-1...

The Department of Psychology @uzh-ch.bsky.social has an open position for a tenured Lecturer (Research) «Psychological Data Management and -Stewardship» jobs.uzh.ch/job-vacancie... #psychjobs

Hanging out with William James at the @psychscience.bsky.social office. Lots of discussion of new ways forward for APS. Let me know in comments what would keep or make you a member in the future.

“Dutch people cycle an average of 2.6km each per day. If this pattern was replicated worldwide, annual carbon emissions would drop by 686 million tonnes. This mammoth figure exceeds the entire carbon footprint of most countries, including the UK, Canada, Saudi Arabia and Australia.” @euronews.com

Call for papers: Emotion special issue on Affect Dynamics Across Multiple Timescales (moments→days→years) and links to mental and physical health. Letters of intent due Jan 15, 2026. Details/submission: www.apa.org/pubs/journal... Please share with colleagues/trainees. @affectscience.bsky.social

Keeping this at hand in case I need to point to it and tap

Aah, that reminds me: I designed an article-appreciation postcard ages ago, in the style of old reprint-request cards, but never got around to buying stamps to actually send them! First thing on my to-do list this weekend!

You can do this right now: Think of a person who wrote a paper you love, whose work influenced or helped you, or has made your professional life better. Search up their email address. Shoot them a quick email of thanks. It means so, so much. This is a rough time of year, share some joy.

"You cannot carry out causal analysis without controlling for *all* hidden confounders" For the brave, here's a sensitivity analysis case at Booking[.]com 1/ #CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky

I ignored the strip.clip argument in #ggplot2 for way too long 😲 Combined with a small negative margin tweak, you can place facet labels inside each panel. A tiny trick that makes small multiples feel so much cleaner. 🔵 no manual coordinates 🔵 inherits theme styling 🔵 scales nicely when resizing

All the material for my Bayesian Data Analysis course is available online, including the lectures, which we re-recorded this fall (some of them by @aloctavodia.bsky.social and Noa Kallioinen while I was on vacation). The video links are listed in the schedule at avehtari.github.io/BDA_course_A...

We have made public #openscience materials from the Münster Center for Open Science, specifically flyers and cheatsheets on #OpenAccess, #OpenData, and #Preregistration. Flyers are already on Zenodo, Cheatsheets will follow: zenodo.org/communities/muecos/ and lukasroeseler.github.io/MueCOS-Infom...

While teaching a course on Item Response Theory this semester, I created a Shiny app for visualizing some polytomous item response models: falkcarl.shinyapps.io/polytomous/ This is an initial draft, so comments/questions/suggestions are welcome! #Psychometrics #RShiny #IRT

I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students. I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

I maintain that this is an excellent benchmark for d-type effect sizes: Sleep satisfaction & duration declined with childbirth & reached a nadir during the first 3 months postpartum, with women more strongly affected (satisfaction d = -0.79, duration minus 62 min, d = -0.90)>

"Replication rates are higher than experts predicted and p-hacking is much less common than we expected!" replications.clearerthinking.org/three-surpri...

New paper by @ninanu.bsky.social: Estimating the Reliability and Stability of Emotional Variability Across Time online.ucpress.edu/collabra/art... We used Bayesian censored location scale models to estimate reliability and latent stability of positive and negative emotional variability.