Our paper is out: Revisiting the EU Commission’s estimates of how much the fiscal balance responds to the business cycle,we find spending elasticities are sensitive to data and model choices. Social spending beyond unemployment-related expenditure also shows signs of responding to the business cycle

The far-right AfD is leading German opinion polls.

The far-right AfD is leading German opinion polls.

Fiscal consolidation increases political instability. Government approval ratings decline more sharply when tightening occurs during a downturn and relies solely on spending cuts. Consolidation measures with only minor contractionary effects contribute to political stability.

Fiscal consolidation increases political instability. Government approval ratings decline more sharply when tightening occurs during a downturn and relies solely on spending cuts. Consolidation measures with only minor contractionary effects contribute to political stability.

Our institute (wiiw) is looking for two new CEE economists, one specialised on the Visegrad countries and one on the Western Balkans. 🧵

Our institute (wiiw) is looking for two new CEE economists, one specialised on the Visegrad countries and one on the Western Balkans. 🧵

Across the EU, the unemployment rate is currently highest in Finland, Spain, Greece and Sweden - and lowest in Czechia, Bulgaria, Poland and Malta.

Across the EU, the unemployment rate is currently highest in Finland, Spain, Greece and Sweden - and lowest in Czechia, Bulgaria, Poland and Malta.

Germany’s production has declined sharply in industries highly exposed to Chinese competition, falling by more than 20% since 2018.

Germany’s production has declined sharply in industries highly exposed to Chinese competition, falling by more than 20% since 2018.

New ECB analysis: following a geopolitical oil supply shock that raises the real oil price by 10%, €zone real GDP growth declines by ~0.2 to 0.3 %-points in each of the first 3 years following the shock. the oil intensity of the €zone economy has declined steadily.

New ECB analysis: following a geopolitical oil supply shock that raises the real oil price by 10%, €zone real GDP growth declines by ~0.2 to 0.3 %-points in each of the first 3 years following the shock. the oil intensity of the €zone economy has declined steadily.

We're hiring an economist specialising in industrial policy/innovation/structural change. - live and work in one of the world’s most liveable cities; - supportive team and excellent working conditions; -engaging research environment with policy relevance. Deadline: 10 June 2026

We're hiring an economist specialising in industrial policy/innovation/structural change. - live and work in one of the world’s most liveable cities; - supportive team and excellent working conditions; -engaging research environment with policy relevance. Deadline: 10 June 2026

Our new study on fiscal consolidation and political instability has received extensive media coverage. The 🇦🇹 newspaper Die Presse published a print article summarising our main findings. "Österreich" also covered the study in print. Kurier, Kleine Zeitung, Puls 24 etc. featured our findings online.

Our new study on fiscal consolidation and political instability has received extensive media coverage. The 🇦🇹 newspaper Die Presse published a print article summarising our main findings. "Österreich" also covered the study in print. Kurier, Kleine Zeitung, Puls 24 etc. featured our findings online.

I contributed a book chapter on a key EU policy problem: fiscal consolidation pressures and rising defence spending risk crowding out public investment in the green and digital transition. I discuss options for creating more fiscal space under the reformed EU fiscal rules.

I contributed a book chapter on a key EU policy problem: fiscal consolidation pressures and rising defence spending risk crowding out public investment in the green and digital transition. I discuss options for creating more fiscal space under the reformed EU fiscal rules.

📢 Deadline is approaching 📅 🥳 #30FMM Conference🎉 "Shaping macroeconomics in times of global Transformation" will take place When and Where? 22-24 October 2026 in Berlin Deadline for abstracts? 31 May We look forward to your abstract More information: www.imk-boeckler.de/de/aktuelle-...

Global investment in clean energy tech manufacturing is falling despite growing demand. The drop is driven mainly by China (overcapacity) and policy decisions in the US (rollback of subsidies). European investment remains comparatively stable, though EV investment has slowed.

Global investment in clean energy tech manufacturing is falling despite growing demand. The drop is driven mainly by China (overcapacity) and policy decisions in the US (rollback of subsidies). European investment remains comparatively stable, though EV investment has slowed.

Budgetkonsolidierung erhöht politische Instabilität. Zustimmungswerte der Regierung nehmen stärker ab, wenn in einem Abschwung und nur ausgabenseitig konsolidiert wird. Konsolidierungsmaßnahmen mit geringen Bremseffekten tragen zu politischer Stabilität bei. Unsere Studie bei @aundw.bsky.social:

Die Tageszeitung @diepressecom.bsky.social über unsere neue Studie von @heimbergecon.bsky.social & Anna Matzner zu den politischen Auswirkungen von Budgetkonsolidierungen: Die Akzeptanz für Einschnitte ist in Aufschwung-Phasen deutlich größer www.diepresse.com/23265135/spa...

Neues Paper von @heimbergecon.bsky.social & Anna Matzner zu Budgetkonsolidierungen u. politischer Stabilität: Popularitätsverluste für Regierungen durch schwächeres Wachstum, mehr Arbeitslosigkeit; Einbußen in Rezession stark; Problem rein ausgabenseitiger Sanierungen 1/2 ➡️ wiiw.ac.at/p-7605.html

Hier ist die Pressemitteilung zu unserer aktuellen @wiiw.ac.at -Studie: Budgetkonsolidierung hat nicht nur ökonomische, sondern auch politische Effekte. Eine Minimierung der Bremseffekte von Konsolidierungsmaßnahmen kann Regierungen helfen, nicht an Zustimmung in der Bevölkerung zu verlieren.

📊Budgetkonsolidierung hat nicht nur wirtschaftliche, sondern auch politische Folgen: @heimbergecon.bsky.social und Anna Matzner zeigen in einer neuen Studie: Sparprogramme erhöhen politische Instabilität und die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Regierungskrisen und Protestaktionen.

Budgetkonsolidierung erhöht politische Instabilität. Zustimmungswerte der Regierung nehmen stärker ab, wenn in einem Abschwung und nur ausgabenseitig konsolidiert wird. Konsolidierungsmaßnahmen mit geringen Bremseffekten tragen zu politischer Stabilität bei. Unsere Studie bei @aundw.bsky.social:

What happens when the state quietly disappears? A new paper finds that support for populism in Italy (2008–18) rose where hospitals closed, especially in remote municipalities. Greater distance to public services reinforced feelings of abandonment and boosted populist voting.

We have a new paper on fiscal consolidation and political instability in advanced economies. Fiscal consolidation carries political costs: it lowers government approval and increases the likelihood of protests and government crises. However, costs vary with economic conditions and policy design.

Link to the paper (comments and feedback welcome!): wiiw.ac.at/fiscal-conso...

We find that government approval falls, and the likelihood of protest activity and government crises rises in response to fiscal tightening shocks. These effects are concentrated in the first years after the shock and do not translate into persistently elevated political instability.

Our analysis relies on internationally comparable data on government approval and political events. We further use IMF data on fiscal tightening in 17 OECD countries from 1980 to 2020.

We have a new paper on fiscal consolidation and political instability in advanced economies. Fiscal consolidation carries political costs: it lowers government approval and increases the likelihood of protests and government crises. However, costs vary with economic conditions and policy design.

EU NATO arms imports more than doubled between 2015–19 and 2020–24, with the US share rising from 52% to 64%. Europe remains heavily reliant on the US for key defence systems (missile defence, drones...). Without joint procurement, EU strategic autonomy will stay limited.

This paper provides new evidence suggesting support for fiscal austerity is shallow: while many voters endorse debt reduction in principle, few prioritise it over healthcare or social spending. Even worsening fiscal conditions may not significantly increase pro-austerity support.

EU NATO arms imports more than doubled between 2015–19 and 2020–24, with the US share rising from 52% to 64%. Europe remains heavily reliant on the US for key defence systems (missile defence, drones...). Without joint procurement, EU strategic autonomy will stay limited.

This paper provides new evidence suggesting support for fiscal austerity is shallow: while many voters endorse debt reduction in principle, few prioritise it over healthcare or social spending. Even worsening fiscal conditions may not significantly increase pro-austerity support.

New QJE paper on France’s mandated profit-sharing: distributing excess profits to workers raises the labor share and reduces the profit share, with little effect on investment or productivity. Gains mainly go to lower-skilled workers; high-skilled pay unaffected.

New QJE paper on France’s mandated profit-sharing: distributing excess profits to workers raises the labor share and reduces the profit share, with little effect on investment or productivity. Gains mainly go to lower-skilled workers; high-skilled pay unaffected.

Ich halte heute um 19 Uhr in Salzburg (Robert-Jungk-Bibliothek) einen Vortrag zu den wirtschaftlichen, politischen und sozialen Implikationen von Budgetkonsolidierung. Eintritt frei; Online-Teilnahme möglich.

Ich halte heute um 19 Uhr in Salzburg (Robert-Jungk-Bibliothek) einen Vortrag zu den wirtschaftlichen, politischen und sozialen Implikationen von Budgetkonsolidierung. Eintritt frei; Online-Teilnahme möglich.

Today, I presented our paper on how fiscal consolidation (spending cuts/tax hikes to reduce the fiscal deficit) affects political instability - government popularity, major government crises and protest activity - in advanced economies. Working paper coming soon!

Today, I presented our paper on how fiscal consolidation (spending cuts/tax hikes to reduce the fiscal deficit) affects political instability - government popularity, major government crises and protest activity - in advanced economies. Working paper coming soon!

Military spending in large European countries has increased markedly, particularly in Poland and Germany.

Military spending in large European countries has increased markedly, particularly in Poland and Germany.

Germany ranks among the weakest EU performers in real private sector investment growth from 2000 to 2025 (+11.9%). Only Greece (−25.7%), Portugal (−1.1%), and Luxembourg (+1.0%) had lower growth. Highest private investment growth in Romania (+180.1%), Bulgaria, Malta, Lithuania

Germany ranks among the weakest EU performers in real private sector investment growth from 2000 to 2025 (+11.9%). Only Greece (−25.7%), Portugal (−1.1%), and Luxembourg (+1.0%) had lower growth. Highest private investment growth in Romania (+180.1%), Bulgaria, Malta, Lithuania

Amid growing China–US rivalry, global trade is becoming more bloc-based: countries aligned with the US (“Western”) and those closer to China (“non-Western”) are increasingly trading within their own group rather than across blocs.

Amid growing China–US rivalry, global trade is becoming more bloc-based: countries aligned with the US (“Western”) and those closer to China (“non-Western”) are increasingly trading within their own group rather than across blocs.