About time we called it the price-wage spiral.

📅 Deadline approaching: Call for Applications 📢 We are organizing the 10th Summer School "Keynesian Macroeconomics and European Economic Policies". From 24th - 29th August 2026 in Berlin Deadline for applications: 28th February 2026 Website and application: www.imk-boeckler.de/de/aktuelle-... /1

Do wages drive inflation, or does inflation drive wages? A new paper for Switzerland finds inflation strongly influences wage growth, but wages have only a weak effect on prices. Inflation is driven more by imports, expectations, and economic slack than by wage pressures.

New paper shows social scientists are sidelining null results. Analysing 100,000 articles across 150 political science journals, it finds 2% of abstracts report null-only findings; >90% highlight significant results. Researchers 10–100x less likely to spotlight nulls: driver of publication bias.

Do wages drive inflation, or does inflation drive wages? A new paper for Switzerland finds inflation strongly influences wage growth, but wages have only a weak effect on prices. Inflation is driven more by imports, expectations, and economic slack than by wage pressures.

📈Zinserhöhungen wirken weniger als erwartet. Eine Meta-Studie wertet über 400 Studien zur Geldpolitik aus und korrigiert systematische Verzerrungen in der Forschung. Das Ergebnis: Die dämpfenden Effekte auf Inflation und Wachstum wurden überschätzt. 1/2

New paper shows social scientists are sidelining null results. Analysing 100,000 articles across 150 political science journals, it finds 2% of abstracts report null-only findings; >90% highlight significant results. Researchers 10–100x less likely to spotlight nulls: driver of publication bias.

In einem neuen Artikel zeigen wir, dass Zinserhöhungen bei der Inflationsbekämpfung weniger wirksam sind als gemeinhin angenommen. Es braucht realistische Erwartungen und breiteren Mix an Instrumenten (Fiskal-, Industrie-, Wettbewerbspolitik), um Preisstabilität zu geringen Kosten zu gewährleisten.

Wir haben jetzt die deutsche Übersetzung eines Artikels aus 2025 von Matthias Enzinger, @sgechert.bsky.social @heimbergecon.bsky.social , Franz Prante & Daniel Fernandez Romero veröffentlicht. Hier könnt ihr ihn lesen 👇 dezernatzukunft.org/zinserhoehun...

In einem neuen Artikel zeigen wir, dass Zinserhöhungen bei der Inflationsbekämpfung weniger wirksam sind als gemeinhin angenommen. Es braucht realistische Erwartungen und breiteren Mix an Instrumenten (Fiskal-, Industrie-, Wettbewerbspolitik), um Preisstabilität zu geringen Kosten zu gewährleisten.

Once all assets are counted (stocks, foreign holdings), Japan’s net public-sector liabilities are ~65% of GDP - and have halved since 2020. Cheap domestic funding+leveraged risk assets has earned 6% of GDP per year above costs. Japan as a misunderstood balance sheet...

Once all assets are counted (stocks, foreign holdings), Japan’s net public-sector liabilities are ~65% of GDP - and have halved since 2020. Cheap domestic funding+leveraged risk assets has earned 6% of GDP per year above costs. Japan as a misunderstood balance sheet...

German manufacturing shows clear signs of a turnaround as new orders surge. This is good news for Germany and for other countries at the heart of Europe’s industrial core.

German manufacturing shows clear signs of a turnaround as new orders surge. This is good news for Germany and for other countries at the heart of Europe’s industrial core.

What could possibly go wrong with the U.S. administration’s drive toward financial deregulation? History suggests it is precisely here that the political roots of future financial disasters - at enormous public cost - are laid.

📅 Reminder: Call for Applications 📢 We are organizing the 10th Summer School "Keynesian Macroeconomics and European Economic Policies". From 24th - 29th August 2026 in Berlin Deadline for applications: 28th February 2026 Website and application: www.imk-boeckler.de/de/aktuelle-... 🧵1/

This is an interesting new paper on the likelihood of persistently low global fertility in the "Journal of Economic Perspectives".

This paper shows that women get fewer and smaller parental transfers, and different assets. Tax breaks favor business assets (more often inherited by men); men pay lower effective tax rates. Resulting gender tax gap (2% inheritances, 22% gifts) reinforces 🇩🇪wealth inequality

This paper shows that women get fewer and smaller parental transfers, and different assets. Tax breaks favor business assets (more often inherited by men); men pay lower effective tax rates. Resulting gender tax gap (2% inheritances, 22% gifts) reinforces 🇩🇪wealth inequality

I am fortunate to be ranked in the top 1.5% of researchers in Europe in the RePEc rankings, based on publications and citations from the past 10 years. Looking back, I wouldn’t have expected my research focus on fiscal policy to make this possible.

I am fortunate to be ranked in the top 1.5% of researchers in Europe in the RePEc rankings, based on publications and citations from the past 10 years. Looking back, I wouldn’t have expected my research focus on fiscal policy to make this possible.

According to ECB data, Germany has the highest wealth inequality of all EU countries. The top 10% own 67% of total wealth, while the bottom half own 1.3%. The countries ranking next in wealth inequality are Spain, Ireland, Estonia, France, and Austria.

According to ECB data, Germany has the highest wealth inequality of all EU countries. The top 10% own 67% of total wealth, while the bottom half own 1.3%. The countries ranking next in wealth inequality are Spain, Ireland, Estonia, France, and Austria.

Interesting paper on the new causal macroeconomics: researchers randomly give different people different pieces of economic information to shift their expectations, then track how those treatments affect behavior (e.g. household spending, firms’ pricing, hiring, and investment).

Interesting paper on the new causal macroeconomics: researchers randomly give different people different pieces of economic information to shift their expectations, then track how those treatments affect behavior (e.g. household spending, firms’ pricing, hiring, and investment).

This paper raises critical questions about (over)using public-debt-to-GDP as a measure of debt sustainability. Debt/GDP is at historic highs, but interest/GDP and debt/equity show flat or falling patterns. Better theory, smarter metrics and less focus on debt/GDP needed.

This paper raises critical questions about (over)using public-debt-to-GDP as a measure of debt sustainability. Debt/GDP is at historic highs, but interest/GDP and debt/equity show flat or falling patterns. Better theory, smarter metrics and less focus on debt/GDP needed.

The Trump administration has pushed for unprecedented reductions in scientific funding and personnel. In 2025, U.S. federal science agencies saw their workforce shrink by about 20% compared with the year before.

The Trump administration has pushed for unprecedented reductions in scientific funding and personnel. In 2025, U.S. federal science agencies saw their workforce shrink by about 20% compared with the year before.

Elite science is increasingly concentrated. Analysis of the 200k most-cited researchers (2019–23) shows just four hubs-NYC, Boston, London & SF Bay Area-host 12% of the world’s top scientists. Much of the developing world, and even regions within rich countries, remains sidelined

Elite science is increasingly concentrated. Analysis of the 200k most-cited researchers (2019–23) shows just four hubs-NYC, Boston, London & SF Bay Area-host 12% of the world’s top scientists. Much of the developing world, and even regions within rich countries, remains sidelined

This is a useful video source on recent developments in causal inference with macro data provided by the American Economic Association. It introduces the impulse-propagation paradigm, impulse- response estimators, local projections versus VARs etc.

This is a useful video source on recent developments in causal inference with macro data provided by the American Economic Association. It introduces the impulse-propagation paradigm, impulse- response estimators, local projections versus VARs etc.

Carbon pricing cuts emissions but comes with uneven economic and political fallout: it lowers output and jobs and boosts support for extremist/populist parties—especially in carbon-intensive regions—highlighting the need for policies that ease unequal impacts and reduce backlash.

Carbon pricing cuts emissions but comes with uneven economic and political fallout: it lowers output and jobs and boosts support for extremist/populist parties—especially in carbon-intensive regions—highlighting the need for policies that ease unequal impacts and reduce backlash.

This study shows: many top LLMs routinely overgeneralise scientific results (e.g. omitting details limiting the scope), even when asked for accuracy. Newer LLMs often performed worse. This bias risks widespread misinterpretation of research, highlighting the need for mitigation.

This study shows: many top LLMs routinely overgeneralise scientific results (e.g. omitting details limiting the scope), even when asked for accuracy. Newer LLMs often performed worse. This bias risks widespread misinterpretation of research, highlighting the need for mitigation.

This paper provides survey-based evidence that socialising across political divides can change opinions and reduce political polarisation. Using Thanksgiving as a natural experiment, it shows that people shift toward their families’ views after the holiday.

This paper provides survey-based evidence that socialising across political divides can change opinions and reduce political polarisation. Using Thanksgiving as a natural experiment, it shows that people shift toward their families’ views after the holiday.

Even after two world wars and a century of upheaval, wealth in 🇩🇪 shows strong persistence. About 8% of today’s top fortunes trace back to the early 1900s: 82 of the richest families today were already among the richest in 1913, challenging the idea of a fully meritocratic elite.

Even after two world wars and a century of upheaval, wealth in 🇩🇪 shows strong persistence. About 8% of today’s top fortunes trace back to the early 1900s: 82 of the richest families today were already among the richest in 1913, challenging the idea of a fully meritocratic elite.

A great AI-based conversation with Keynes, drawing on a model grounded in Keynes' writings and audio. It explores how his ideas and predictions on productivity, unemployment and financial-markets have held up over the last century, considering the emergence of AI.

A great AI-based conversation with Keynes, drawing on a model grounded in Keynes' writings and audio. It explores how his ideas and predictions on productivity, unemployment and financial-markets have held up over the last century, considering the emergence of AI.

Our paper is out in "Applied Economics Letters". Public investment shocks in EU27 (a) have favourable effects on output (investment multpliers >1) and unemployment (short to medium run); (b) don't crowd out private investment; and (c) don't jeopardise public debt sustainability.

Our paper is out in "Applied Economics Letters". Public investment shocks in EU27 (a) have favourable effects on output (investment multpliers >1) and unemployment (short to medium run); (b) don't crowd out private investment; and (c) don't jeopardise public debt sustainability.

My paper on fiscal consolidation, its growth effects and implications for debt sustainability assessments is out in the December '25 issue of "Review of Evolutionary Political Economy". I review €zone fiscal consolidations and what the research record shows about growth effects.

The 2002 steel tariffs in the US (under president George W. Bush) created persistent negative employment effects in manufacturing industries that rely on steel as an input - despite being removed after 18 months. New evidence in "American Economic Journal: Economic Policy":

My paper on fiscal consolidation, its growth effects and implications for debt sustainability assessments is out in the December '25 issue of "Review of Evolutionary Political Economy". I review €zone fiscal consolidations and what the research record shows about growth effects.

German exports in machinery and autos/parts to China have declined strongly. The decline is ~0.8%-points of GDP per year relative to the peak export shares. chart via Brad Setser

German exports in machinery and autos/parts to China have declined strongly. The decline is ~0.8%-points of GDP per year relative to the peak export shares. chart via Brad Setser