This paper shows it's important to account for fiscal policy’s impact on productivity: long periods of large primary surpluses can depress investment and growth, making public debt stabilisation harder. Pro-growth fiscal reforms may boost productivity, make debt easier to sustain

This paper shows it's important to account for fiscal policy’s impact on productivity: long periods of large primary surpluses can depress investment and growth, making public debt stabilisation harder. Pro-growth fiscal reforms may boost productivity, make debt easier to sustain

Germany used to run large trade surpluses in capital goods with China (exports > imports). Since the start of 2025, Germany has been running a trade deficit with China.

Germany used to run large trade surpluses in capital goods with China (exports > imports). Since the start of 2025, Germany has been running a trade deficit with China.

In this paper, we propose to make potential output estimates in EU fiscal rules policy-responsive in assessing fiscal space via debt sustainability analysis. Allow public investment, R&D expenditure, and labour-supply reforms to affect potential output and fiscal space!

In this paper, we propose to make potential output estimates in EU fiscal rules policy-responsive in assessing fiscal space via debt sustainability analysis. Allow public investment, R&D expenditure, and labour-supply reforms to affect potential output and fiscal space!

Large language models like ChatGPT make writing much cheaper and easier. This disrupts markets where writing used to signal a person’s ability, e.g. job applications. Customization of applications no longer indicates real ability; employers struggle to find the best workers

Large language models like ChatGPT make writing much cheaper and easier. This disrupts markets where writing used to signal a person’s ability, e.g. job applications. Customization of applications no longer indicates real ability; employers struggle to find the best workers

New paper on the fatal consequences of job loss using 🇫🇮 administrative data: "For every 100,000 displaced men, there are 1,100 additional deaths. 60% accrue to the displaced worker, 40% are due to excess spousal mortality.. no such dire consequences are observed after a woman’s job loss"

New paper on the fatal consequences of job loss using 🇫🇮 administrative data: "For every 100,000 displaced men, there are 1,100 additional deaths. 60% accrue to the displaced worker, 40% are due to excess spousal mortality.. no such dire consequences are observed after a woman’s job loss"

Economic growth in Germany since reunification has mostly benefited the middle and upper middle class up to the 99th percentile. Income inequality (pre-tax) in 🇩🇪 is similar to the 🇺🇸 and higher than in 🇫🇷. Inequality has increased, but less than previous studies suggest.

Economic growth in Germany since reunification has mostly benefited the middle and upper middle class up to the 99th percentile. Income inequality (pre-tax) in 🇩🇪 is similar to the 🇺🇸 and higher than in 🇫🇷. Inequality has increased, but less than previous studies suggest.

Germany's exports to China have declined strongly.

Germany's exports to China have declined strongly.

In the past 20 yrs, China extended >$800 billion in loans to emerging market and developing country economies to finance infrastructure, energy etc. China’s loan portfolio surpassed those of the World Bank, the IMF, and all 22 Paris Club creditor governments combined.

In the past 20 yrs, China extended >$800 billion in loans to emerging market and developing country economies to finance infrastructure, energy etc. China’s loan portfolio surpassed those of the World Bank, the IMF, and all 22 Paris Club creditor governments combined.

Unser Artikel zu den positiven Effekten von öffentlichen Investitionen: Europa braucht mehr Investitionen, um seine Zukunft zu sichern. www.awblog.at/Wirtschaft/O...

🚞Öffentliche Investitionen sind ein Wachstumsmotor. @heimbergecon.bsky.social und Cara Dabrowski vom @wiiw.ac.at fassen ihre Studie zusammen: www.awblog.at/Wirtschaft/O...

This new ECB paper serves as a reference guide to ECB models and empirical benchmarks on monetary policy transmission and extensively reports the findings of our recent meta-analysis on the effects of conventional monetary policy on output and prices.

Die EU-Staaten müssen ihre Investitionen in die öffentliche Infrastruktur deutlich erhöhen. Ein neuer EU-Investitionsfonds könnte dazu beitragen, schreiben @heimbergecon.bsky.social und Cara Dabrowski

Important paper on the role of ideological biases of individual staffers in driving policy decisions taken by international organizations: "we find that individual staffers influence the number, scope, and content of IMF conditions according to their personal ideological biases."

Important paper on the role of ideological biases of individual staffers in driving policy decisions taken by international organizations: "we find that individual staffers influence the number, scope, and content of IMF conditions according to their personal ideological biases."

IMF: "only about half of fiscal consolidations achieve their fiscal targets, including debt reduction. A broad range of econometric methods, based on well-established methods in the empirical literature, confirm that fiscal consolidations do not reduce debt ratios, on average."

This IMF paper finds that during and after the 2022 global inflation surge - largely driven by supply shocks - inflation outcomes in inflation-targeting countries were no better than in non-targeting countries, despite the former implementing more aggressive interest rate hikes.

IMF: "only about half of fiscal consolidations achieve their fiscal targets, including debt reduction. A broad range of econometric methods, based on well-established methods in the empirical literature, confirm that fiscal consolidations do not reduce debt ratios, on average."

This IMF paper finds that during and after the 2022 global inflation surge - largely driven by supply shocks - inflation outcomes in inflation-targeting countries were no better than in non-targeting countries, despite the former implementing more aggressive interest rate hikes.

The decline of public property: in recent decades, the public share of total assets has declined. Net public assets (i.e., assets minus liabilities) in major European countries have fallen to just above zero (from 20-30% in 1978), while private assets have risen to >6 times GDP.

The decline of public property: in recent decades, the public share of total assets has declined. Net public assets (i.e., assets minus liabilities) in major European countries have fallen to just above zero (from 20-30% in 1978), while private assets have risen to >6 times GDP.

This paper shows: the 2022 energy crisis led to record global profits for fossil fuel companies. The US gained the most, with claims on US$301 billion, exceeding its US$267 billion investment in low-carbon energy. Half of profits went to the top1%, mainly through stock ownership

This paper shows: the 2022 energy crisis led to record global profits for fossil fuel companies. The US gained the most, with claims on US$301 billion, exceeding its US$267 billion investment in low-carbon energy. Half of profits went to the top1%, mainly through stock ownership

Publication bias is greater at the top five journals: "56% of statistically significant results [in leading econ journals] were selected to be statistically significant. Selection bias is greater at top5 journals, where 66% of significant results were selected to be significant."

Private consumption in Germany has been hammered.

Publication bias is greater at the top five journals: "56% of statistically significant results [in leading econ journals] were selected to be statistically significant. Selection bias is greater at top5 journals, where 66% of significant results were selected to be significant."

Private consumption in Germany has been hammered.

EU car exports to China are in freefall. For a time, the North American market offered Europe’s carmakers an important offset from the China shock. But this cushion is now vanishing due to US protectionism.

This paper shows: people in the US and China see trade deficits as a power weakness. Americans who think China will overtake the US view bilateral trade deficits with China especially negatively (this holds for different political orientations and social-demographic backgrounds).

This paper shows: people in the US and China see trade deficits as a power weakness. Americans who think China will overtake the US view bilateral trade deficits with China especially negatively (this holds for different political orientations and social-demographic backgrounds).

EU car exports to China are in freefall. For a time, the North American market offered Europe’s carmakers an important offset from the China shock. But this cushion is now vanishing due to US protectionism.

We updated our paper on the effects of monetary policy on output and prices (thanks for great feedback). We show that results reported in the literature are plagued by p-hacking and publication bias, leading to inflated effects of interest rate hikes.

Fossil fuel use continues to climb, despite the growth of renewables.

We updated our paper on the effects of monetary policy on output and prices (thanks for great feedback). We show that results reported in the literature are plagued by p-hacking and publication bias, leading to inflated effects of interest rate hikes.

Starting a coffee shop helps by creating social spaces that strengthen local networks. When a Starbucks opened in a neighborhood that previously had no coffee shops, startups increased significantly (compared to census tracts that were scheduled to receive a Starbucks but did not get one).

Starting a coffee shop helps by creating social spaces that strengthen local networks. When a Starbucks opened in a neighborhood that previously had no coffee shops, startups increased significantly (compared to census tracts that were scheduled to receive a Starbucks but did not get one).

China has become the world's largest car exporter.

China has become the world's largest car exporter.

Men and women are treated differently when presenting their economics research. "Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men... Interruptions that are negative in tenor or tone, or cutoff the presenter mid-sentence, increase for women presenters." New AER paper

Men and women are treated differently when presenting their economics research. "Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men... Interruptions that are negative in tenor or tone, or cutoff the presenter mid-sentence, increase for women presenters." New AER paper

Europe's car industry has major problems, but none of this has anything to do with future emission rules or an engine ban in 10yrs. It's about China's rise as a car exporter, US protectionism and low domestic car demand. Boost demand at home; harmonise support schemes. Must-read report

This paper shows that authors from low-income countries remain excluded from top-ranked economics journals and receive less attention from other economists. Developing country authors are far less likely to be published in top journals even when holding citation counts constant.

Ne surestimons-nous pas vraiment l’efficacité de la politique monétaire ? (A la marge) blogs.alternatives-economiques.fr/anota/2025/1...