⏰ Last chance to register for #CDSM2025! Don't miss your chance to join us Nov 12–13 for two days of talks & debates at the intersection of causality, data science & AI. 💻 Online | 🎟️ Free 👉 causalscience.org

Intuitively,

Forecast intervals from my time series model be like

Timeline full of sandwich guy, white house collapse, and Trump allegedly having a stroke. Time to log off, I guess.

Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, made an official statement: Russia is no longer producing more ammunition than all NATO Allies combined. Let that sink in. Until recently, Moscow had the advantage.👇

An Imbens retrospective on experimental v. non-experimental methods — looks like a must-read www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

What does it mean to assign probabilities to causal parameters? In just one minute and 33 seconds, I explain why this is puzzling, and how you can nevertheless make sense of it. youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg

"Ich mach' mir die Welt Widdewidde wie sie mir gefällt ..."

Gerade wurde die neue Mitte-Studie vorgestellt, die den Titel „die angespannte Mitte“ trägt und Einstellungen in der Bevölkerung seit 2014 fortschreibt. Die Kernbefunde aus der Pressekonferenz kurz zusammengefasst: 1/🧵

First flight with the baby. Wish us luck! ✈️👼

🧵There's this phenomenon you sometimes see in certain corners of science where a small group of researchers all work on the same narrow topic and mostly just talk to each other. It becomes a really insular community: everyone cites everyone else, ... 1/5

The number of full-time academic jobs outside the U.S. listed on JOE is down, and lower than during COVID. Could partly be due to increased formalization of European mkt and perhaps less use of JOE.

New data on the #EconJobMarket as of Nov 2. Based on total # of job listings on JOE, this year continues to be even weaker (by 11%) than during COVID (2020). 1/many #EconSky

Kein Bundesliga-Club außer Bayern ist international konkurrenzfähig

Oh no, the Bluesky mob is coming after me

📢The #Fribourg #WinterSchool in #DataAnalytics & #MachineLearning is coming up (Feb 2–13, 2026)! On site at @unifr.bsky.social or online - covering data analytics, predictive & causal machine learning, and deep learning using Python, R, Julia & Knime. Register now: www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/w...

This time will be different

For the last 50 years, we've designed cars to be safe... For the 50th-percentile male. Well, that's actually not 100% correct. According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but... 1/ #CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky

📘 The intro to the special issue "Victims of their own success? How successful liberal orders can become self-undermining" highlights how liberalism destabilises itself through excess, exploitation and exhaustion 👇 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

@erdjohann.bsky.social hatte da mal etwas angefangen 👀

What a game!!! 💪 #PSGBAY

In 1983, households aged 75+ were 5% richer than the average. In 2022, they were 55% richer. Meanwhile, under-35 households went from 21% of average wealth to just 16%. America’s wealth is aging way faster than its population. www.nber.org/digest/20251...

Still flabbergasted by the fact that when Japan was starting trading with the west they started communicating mainly in dutch and I have to keep imagining some serious Samurai and the Shogun going "Hallo, mag ik een lekkere frikandel? Ik wil graag appelkoekjes, ik spreek Nederlands"

One thing I do miss about old Twitter (apart from all the useful info and interactions – some of which have moved, some not) is that it had a very good search function. Realised I basically used it as a public store of interesting things I'd seen. Now very hard to retrace elsewhere...

Fascinating paper by @grattonecon.bsky.social, @bartonelee2.bsky.social, and Hasin Yousaf! The paper addresses a fundamental question: Why do some democracies chronically avoid ambitious, long-term reforms even when they have decent institutions? They argue that what matters is not only

4 compliers. There are 4 guys who switched because of the IV.

seeking contributors for an edited volume

No DAGs—but DiD, synthetic control, and matrix completion? I think we can do better for an undergrad course in causal inference.

Wait, I thought straightening up and punctuating the conversation with a casual "Jonge!" was the Dutch-approved way to assert dominance.

Another scholarly classic! 😎 #academicsky #resdev #resdevmemes #acwri

Academics have always been complainers.

⏰ Only 1 week left to register for #CDSM2025! Join us Nov 12–13 for two days of talks & debates at the intersection of causality, data science & AI. 💻 Online | 🎟️ Free 👉 causalscience.org

Applications for MCSA are up 64%! 50% now come from outside the EU. Trump effect? The European Research market just got a hell of a lot more crowded. EU should turn on the tap marie-sklodowska-curie-actions.ec.europa.eu/news/msca-po...

interesting paper on difference between synthetic contol method and historical counterfactual method www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

🎓 New paper accepted today, on the intergenerational educational mobility among immigrants in Denmark! At first glance, immigrants seem more mobile than natives – but this is largely a data illusion. Poor register data quality drives the pattern. w/ @rlandersoe.bsky.social osf.io/preprints/so...

The electoral outcome most strongly linked to deprivation is not any party’s vote share, but turnout. Across almost all indicators, turnout is markedly lower in more deprived areas, with only barriers to housing & services and quality in the living environment showing weaker correlations.

25 years ago, my generation made fun of the old guard sticking to their 'statistical packages', whose names inevitably started with a capital 'S'. In other news, I'm one of the last #Stata holdouts in my department.

This paper’s been popping as “evidence” that you can’t do real #causalinference w/ obs data. To me it shows you need rigorous pre-specified design (in addition to the willingness to fold when your hypothesis is not possible to answer with the data at hand). #EpiSky, #CausalSky, #AcademicSky

submitting your AI generated position paper to the arxiv should get you immediate ticket to the icy pit of hell

Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery? What's Your Guess? In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching: 1/ #CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky

Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball! This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers. paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...

[email protected] has a number of vacancies for Assistant Professors (Macro & Development) Coventry has canals, an amazing cathedral etc. ... is one hour from London, 20 mins from Birmingham 90 mins from the Peak District National Park Apply here: 👉 econjobmarket.org/positions/12...

Scientists trying to limit supply to hike prices but arguing for the common good—just like in any other industry.

When the Editor finally assigned you as Reviewer 2 and you know what to do.

The Brexit Dolchstoßlegende is alive and well

New York knows how to do Halloween!

I’ve read a good amount of the replies and quote posts to this announcement and they are overwhelmingly nonsensical The commenters don’t understand what AI is (it’s not just LLMs) or what an algorithmic feed is, they don’t even understand the actual scope of the changes announced 1/3

For the last 24 months, I've been waiting patiently for LLMs to take my data science job... And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had). What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation? 1/ #CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky

Season's greetings from Berlin (from www.instagram.com/p/BppaR-zhMJG/)

Causal inference in sports analytics when?