🧵Is telework threatening state and local tax systems? My new paper: “State and Local Tax Policy in a Time of Telework” (with Xinyu Chen) @natltax.bsky.social Idea: telework decouples the residence and workplace posing challenges for who taxes remote workers. doi.org/10.1086/740842

My position on the Triumphal Arch in DC is they should only do it if the victorious general is driven around the city for the triumph with someone whispering “menento mori” to them

Not really clear to me why Vietnam has done so much better than Burma

Week five of AI in Finance: Fraud detection and compliance • How embeddings, LLMs, and graph methods can improve fraud detection • Where AI addresses the compliance and regulatory burden • The arms race of AI advancing cybersecurity risks and defenses arpitrage.substack.com/p/finding-ne...

I have a new article in National Affairs on Industrial Policy for Housing Construction! With Steve Teles, we outline an agenda for deregulation and government support to grow factory built housing: piece: nationalaffairs.com/publications... substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/industrial...

Conspiracy theory: the algorithms have figured out showing ads to all members of the household unit increases conversion rates

Always wondered whether visiting UChicago in April played a role in going there

i look forward to harassing steven next week about his industrial housing policy piece with @arpitrage.bsky.social nationalaffairs.com/publications...

Am several years late to the party in watching Fred again.. at that London rooftop - pretty good!

My solution to the @paulgp.com AI diff in diff slop challenge is to develop economic world models based on transformers which simulate households, firms, and governments; so policy evaluation requires spinning up some counterfactuals and simulations paulgp.substack.com/p/ai-one-sho...

Week four of AI in Finance: • The economics of market intelligence • GPT can read a 10-K, but so can everyone else, so where does alpha go? • How to simulate your customers arpitrage.substack.com/p/4-the-end-...

I’m heading troublesome reports that assassinating the leader of the spice rich regions is not working as per plan; since the son has survived and is leading a religious rebellion blocking spice exports. Let’s see what happens if Imperial Sardaukar are deployed.

"rising housing costs since 1990 are responsible for 13 million (11%) children not being born, 51% of decrease in fertility from the 2000s to the 2010s, and a 7pp decrease in the share of 20-29 year olds that have started families" via @arpitrage.bsky.social drive.google.com/file/d/1BK6j...

Week three of the AI in Finance course: • The economics of credit scoring from ledgers to ML and digital footprints • How AI lets banks lend to strangers • Why better models create new risks arpitrage.substack.com/p/3-the-caus...

Attention and mental wellbeing, dramatically improve after RCT limited smartphone access cc @paulgp.com academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...

I'm a bit late to it, but this is a careful look at how we can start thinking about the implications of transformers for economic modelling #EconSky

Please consider my departure letter highlighting my friend & now-former colleague @arpitrage.bsky.social 's housing quality rule, brilliantly adapted from an old RGB tenant rep idea. Arpit's proposal would combine tenant protection with sustainable RGB cost-based guidelines for the first time 👇

This is a really good discussion of “applied” AI in a non-coding/SWE space.

Week two of my AI in Finance course: • Financial document intelligence • The jagged frontier of AI capabilities • Why your AI is lying to you, will we ever get to truth, and how to use RAG to deal with it arpitrage.substack.com/p/2-when-you...

I'm teaching a new course at Stern on AI in Finance and opening it up! Syllabus/slides on Github: github.com/arpitrage/ai... Weekly summaries on Substack arpitrage.substack.com/p/1-three-ru... First post is on Amdahl's Law, Jevons' Paradox, and why finance was slow to learn the bitter lesson

This one's for you @arpitrage.bsky.social

Good: public officials are often underpaid, but there should be a reasonable process for processing raises

In the UK, Australia, and India: do you think they tell promising but not yet there junior academics who need higher impact papers “Go on, hit a six paper”

Economists should start doing economics

this is consistent w what I’ve been observing in my and friends’ careers post-pandemic; if you want to continue working remotely, it is unintuitively *more stable* to favor startups (doesn’t have to be super-early-stage! love a series B company myself) than try to hang on someplace that wants RTO.

Interesting study here showing that availability of remote work helps startups get top employees from big companies, helping recruiting at startups but hurting retention at big companies. Unclear if return-to-office (RTO) polices help or make things worse for big companies (my guess, worse).

1/ When I worked at AWS during the pandemic, internally, we were told remote work was here to stay, Amazon was now a remote work first company, and they were seeing huge productivity gains. This was all in support of the "Earth’s Best Employer" leadership value. Then RTO hit out of no where 🧵

👀 Super-interesting paper on remote work, productivity from Arpit and co-authors. Also has some important lessons for big cities and smaller places👇

Good read on remote work from @arpitrage.bsky.social arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...

There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right? With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...

Excited to get a one seat ride from NYU Stern to Columbia Business School (Canal - 125/Broadway).

Everyone update the broader impacts of their Anglo cost overrrun project with “has implications for Fed independence”

Some sort of falcon (?) over here in the urban jungle cc @hoffprof.bsky.social

Great post from @arpitrage.bsky.social I just came across.

I like this post by @arpitrage.bsky.social as a starting point, there are also some more technical reports from the Tax Foundation on the 1986 depreciation changes just (just Google "1986 Tax Reform Act" and "housing") arpitrage.substack.com/p/unlock-a-h...

Three new corridors announced for the Delhi metro

This is pretty cool, worth reading...

Can AI "learn" economic states, addressing the Lucas Critique? With @aleximas.bsky.social we simulated data from an NK model, fit a transformer, + tested out of sample fit It generalizes surprisingly well. We hope this stimulates discussion and future agendas arpitrage.substack.com/p/can-a-tran...

A post I wrote a few months ago on what it means for urban policy that housing is largely homothetic (inspired by an @arpitrage.bsky.social tweet, which became the Substack preview of the post): gregshill.substack.com/p/mistaking-...

UPDATE: more road cutting up in the works

Some scissor stairs in an NYC luxury rental built 1998

Even when New Yorker authors are rioting over a new editor appointment — they still do the pretentious diaeresis thing

Good news everyone: W 4th St in front of NYU yet again under construction

🚨Next time you hire, don’t take it easy! In a new working paper, @elliottash.bsky.social, Jason Sockin, and I show the difficulty of the interview signals to workers whether the job is a good fit. 🚨 Paper link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

NEW PRE-DOC POSITIONS: @arpitrage.bsky.social and I are hiring for two pre-docs, one to start ASAP and one to start next Fall, to help expand our work using LLMs to measure and study zoning codes in the US. Please apply here: apply.interfolio.com/176538

🚨New predoc positions!🚨 Join @alexbartik.bsky.social and me to work on developing LLM tools to analyze zoning regulations and their impacts on housing affordability. One position starting at the "normal" cycle next year, and another ASAP. Apply here: apply.interfolio.com/176538

Forthcoming in the AER: "Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse" by Arpit Gupta, Vrinda Mittal, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Keep updating those priors, @paulgp.com

Evidence from random roommate assignment and a gaming ban for minors in China once again show what I now believe incredibly strongly: smartphones and social media destroy civilization via @arpitrage.bsky.social