The level of @publicenterprise.bsky.social intellectual victory here is wildly underappreciated

Great post from @arpitrage.bsky.social I just came across.

@bryancurtis.bsky.social *nodding*

Me watching $JEF tick lower and vols tick higher:

🌎👩‍🚀🔫👩‍🚀

Just listened to @gelliottmorris.com and @statenavigate.org discussing the state of VA politics on Strength in Numbers. Amazing the kind of high quality analysis we have of state elections now

From Apollo this AM. Concerning uptrend here. At a time when the labor market is also 🚮🚮🚮 it’s going to be very challenging for the Fed to balance inflation and labor market strength

Mortgage Affordability open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...

Newer apartments are SIX TIMES safer from fire deaths than older housing, and FOUR TIMES safer from fire than even new detached houses. www.pew.org/en/research-...

Well would you look at that, looks like charges against Governor Cook were based on incomplete and misleading information... www.reuters.com/world/us/fed...

My monthly thx you for recognizing the hard work of Team Metro delivering the service that fuels our national leading growth! I’ll set an alarm for next month!

Prime-age employment-population is falling, the % of consumers who say jobs are hard to get is rising — turning points in these tend to be pretty infrequent and I’m not willing to make a call like that without a strong reason/policy shift:

Lotta chatter in my “Media Consumers” group text about the Jimmy Pitaro interview. Well done @bryancurtis.bsky.social

Will be very curious about how this affects YouTube TV’s offerings

Pulte in a Barron’s interview: “I think it’s likely that the companies (Fannie and Freddie) will stay in conservatorship” 🤡🤡🤡

DC Metro has gotten so good lately a friend’s uber was late so they cancelled and rushed for the train instead of the other way around

“So, here, in your ‘reasons I’m bullish’ you note that global crude production declines at 5.5% a year… …and then this chart proceeds to assume upstream investment drops to literal zero and we lose >5 MMbpd in supply every year through end-decade, yielding 20+ MMbpd deficits?”

In cities that actually are building a lot of units you’ll often hear NIMBYs pointing to nominal prices/rents continuing to rise, while not appreciating that blunting the pace of nominal price/rent increases is evidence that YIMBY works

The American Time Use Survey came out recently, giving the most detailed look at how the country spends its days, so here's a quick thread 1st, the share of Americans reading for personal interest on an average day has fallen to the lowest level on record, down 10% from 2003🧵

While I’m thinking about housing, probably not a good sign for the likelihood of a Fannie / Freddie exit from conservatorship with the stroke of Trump’s pen that Pulte is tweeting about Powell instead of working on that framework

All I see here is top notch ball security, elite contact balance, a willingness to grind out tough yards btwn the tackles, and surprising burst after he finds daylight

RE: why people are so upset about sports streaming. I think it’s due to “streaming all the games” being a technical problem that is solved. Previously the constraints to watching all of my teams’ games felt mechanical and real, it was simply not possible to watch every game @thepressbox.bsky.social

"tariffs are a contractionary tax hike" seems vindicated by the jobs and inflation data so far

HERA didn’t give FHFA the legal authority to end conservatorship by any means other than unwinding the firms and liquidating the assets. Here’s Trump’s first term FHFA on the matter when they were working on exit plans back then

Releasing the GSEs requires an act of Congress, there’s a reason conservatorship has lasted this long

When you fire the accounts receivables team you’re gonna have less cash

Business confidence isn’t going to be achieve by the right sounds coming out of admin officials. It’s only going to be achieved with time of sustained policy that people can get their arms around

Listening to the latest money stuff pod with @matt-levine.bsky.social and @kgreifeld.bsky.social talking about the Elon premium in Tesla’s stock has me thinking about why he’s kept all of his other investments private

The admin can negotiate all they want, but they are still stuck with the simple dilemma that trade deals can't have all 3 things they promised to deliver: 1) strong near-term growth 2) manufacturing onshoring 3) meaningful revenue gains

Always love these style charts for inventory, sales, etc.. Captures YoY change, recent history, and seasonality really nicely

From the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey "If we want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., can we try not to kill the companies that can actually help do that before we get the chance?"

Narrator: they can’t be eliminated

“Full China deal may take 2-3 years”

Now I wonder what market reactions would've been just to Musk stepping back from DOGE, absent these Powell headlines from Trump

Oh, not great

The Art of the Deal

Probably not a good sign that nobody will take credit for the calculated tariff numbers

Proposing additional negative growth policies after 15% drawdowns has no precedent to my knowledge

Keep coming back to their thinking that bilateral trade deficits are evidence of being ripped off

Couldn’t help but see a pattern

Andrew Chen, co-founder of one of my favorite denim brands, 3sixteen, breaks down how the tariffs affect his company IG 3sixteen

One of the most memorable news events, where a policy announcement made the stock market tank in such a direct way. I've seen other press conferences/speeches where the market tanked, but it was always in the context of an ongoing crisis where the response looked insufficient.

Not great

Love that bluesky is to the point where someone can ask me “did you see Jokic’s shot last night?” And I can just easily search it and find the highlight. Incredible shot

So important to improving people’s lives to have real evidence based policy

Seems bad

Incredibly good episode of Odd Lots. @kevinerdmann.bsky.social’s point about the government’s unique ability to isolate systemic cyclical risk is something I thought about a lot when I worked at Fannie. Could federal sponsored utilities work in other areas to take this kind of risk off the table?

East Williamsburg today vs. the 1940s. We need to stop trying to preserve these wood-frame neighborhoods through zoning – the beauty faded a long time ago, now all we’re preserving is a housing crisis and a bunch of fire traps that do not keep heat in or noise out