Global Economies Holding Up Fresh PMIs show Europe, India, the UK and Australia steadying even amid US trade tensions. With the rest of the world priced to remain weak ahead, the setup favors a reversal toward global markets. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Great to catch up with Mike Drozd from LaSalle St. Securities about the challenges navigating a late cycle environment and how hedge fund strategies can add tactical benefits when the outlook is uncertain. youtu.be/bvivsvGIGx0?...

"Digital gold" still doesn't look much like actual gold.

Another irregular reminder that most of you don't have enough gold in your portfolio.

The Continued Labor Supply Drag Work visa revocations, border clampdowns, and fewer new permits have flipped immigration from +2mln to -1mln a year. With fewer workers, it's just macro mechanics US growth will slow. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Less active here lately as interest in our products has surged. Strong performance and flows a good problem to have. But as any ETF issuer will say, you gotta engage when the phones are ringing. Still keeping up on blog app and will be back more once I can get a breather.

Great jumping on with RCM Alternatives to talk my background & what's behind my goal to bring low-cost hedge fund strategies to all investors. Check it out! www.rcmalternatives.com/2025/09/brid...

The BoJ’s 100 Year Tightening Plan With inflation subdued and signs of growth weakening in recent months, there is little urgency for the BoJ to act swiftly, leaving any tightening at a glacial pace that is irrelevant to markets. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-bojs-1...

The Soft Hard Data Read Housing, production, investment, exports, and jobs all look soft, with only retail sales showing strength. Market optimism on growth is increasingly at odds with the hard data reality. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Everyone Wins With Fed Cuts, For Now Markets rallied on expectations of a dovish Fed, with bonds, stocks, and gold all soaring. But getting an even more dovish Fed than priced in would likely require an undesirable slowing of growth. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Which assets are you focused on adding to a portfolio?

US Demand Faces 2H Reality Check With jobs flat, wages slowing, and inflation at 3%, real household spending remains weak. Hopes for a 2H rebound rest on dissaving, but early Aug data suggest the summer bounce may already be fading. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Despite hopes that the AI-related investment boom will drive the whole economy, you'd hardly notice it looking at total nonresidential fixed investment, as other investment has been much weaker.

Looks like Chinese policymakers efforts to curtail what was seen as excess speculation on the onshore market is working pretty well. Most of the enthusiasm appears concentrated in offshore investors at this point. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

China’s Malaise Deepens Under Policy Shift China’s economy weakens further as anti-involution efforts to curb investment now drags on household demand. Despite market optimism, policymakers show little sign of stepping in with major support. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Fed looks set to ignore a near 3% core PCE print as they transition to cutting. While the Fed can ignore this reality, households can't. The continued price pressures are set to curtail their real spending ahead.

A lot of folks in the economy feel like they just can't keep up. Goes way beyond partisan lines.

Any common sense look at the data suggests there is consumer price pressures across a range of different categories that are impacted by the tariffs, and that's with only a portion of the current tariff impact flowing through.

Most venture funds are discretionary and concentrated. That means luck mostly determines the outcome. Far better to approach it like Vested, with systematically created diversified portfolios. Now if only it also had lower fees and better liquidity... youtu.be/flv6lHN4wBE?...

Excited to present in just a few minutes here at Money Show up north in Toronto. Let’s see what the Canadian crowd makes of the new US admin “Making Volatility Great Again!”

If we were gonna see a big 2H25 bounce in household spending, you'd think these measures controlled for political party would show some signs of improving. But if anything they look like they are broadly rolling over.

A lot of folks are hopeful for a big 2H bounce in household spending supported by the equity rally. But the hierarchy for households willingness to dissave is 1) employment, 2) house prices, and 3) equities and 2 of the 3 look pretty soft.

Folks all over the macro universe are struggling with whether to focus what has been a bounce in confidence numbers vs. looking at underlying cash flows from hard data. Here is how I look at it, which I've made available to everyone this week: open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Nearly all the equity market appreciation in the last couple months can be attributed to the cumulative downward shift in discount rates, even if the day-to-day wiggles don't match. That also means priced in growth remains stable at highs even though yields have fallen.

Tiff Dithers While Canada Freezes Trade shocks, housing softness, and job losses are dragging Canada toward recession and yet the BoC remains slow to ease despite pretty contained inflation. Markets are far from pricing what is needed. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Rising core goods prices continue to more than offsetting services disinflation. And remember tariff impacts are still just ramping up.

Important to remember that the Fed only cares about one of these pieces of data these days.

Mike McKee vividly capturing what this morning felt like 24 years ago. Take a minute to remember. web.archive.org/web/20140718...

Europe: Low Expectations, Relative Potential With inflation tamed and ECB cuts boosting growth, Europe is holding up better than markets expect. Depressed earnings expectation, weak sentiment, and a cheap euro set the stage for upside surprises. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

One of the hardest things in macro is recognizing the mispricing of macro conditions may get reflected in a range of different ways across markets. For instance weaker growth recently far more priced in with higher bonds rather than lower stocks.

Confidence or Cash Flows Soft data has rebounded sharply in recent months giving hope to many that the economy is rapidly accelerating. But with surveys increasingly unreliable, it's far better to focus on the hard data. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Inflation Stuck Above Fed’s Target There are broad indications inflation has bottomed well above 2% and is heading higher. With price growth rising right as wages are softening, households face a challenging squeeze on real demand. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Biggest booth at Futureproof...

The Household Spending Math Problem Weak hiring, slowing wage growth, and rising inflation leave households with little fuel for real demand. Without a drastic shift, spending will fall short of what markets are pricing in. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Kicking off Future Proof Festival! Bigger than ever!

No signs of improving productivity. If anything, 1H25 average suggests further slowing from previous few years. Productivity surge in 2Q25 was mostly an offset of the overly weak print in 1Q because of the wonky GDP data due to tariff front running. 2 qtr average <1% annualized.

Another negative manufacturing jobs print last month and continued weak indication of manufacturing capex continue to affirm that the renaissance promised by the new admin is nowhere to be found. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/a-manufact...

For those folks who adhere to the Fiscal Dominance theory, how do you explain the pretty clear slowing of growth in 1H25 at a time when fiscal deficits remain roughly on par with previous years? (this is not a troll... genuinely interested to hear how you respond)

Auto sales represented more than half the rise in retail sales in July as consumers front-ran possible price increases ahead of the new model year. Sales contracted in August, suggesting hope for rebound in HH demand may have been short-lived.

I've got an oddball collection of college football allegiances. What's yours? Parents went to UofM + grew up in the mitten, and did summer science nerd camps in Ames and Auburn in my formative years. And enough range to follow most of the power conferences.

Its easy to forget that tariff collections are still rising and are expected to rise further ahead under current policy.

Labor market weakening needed to get the cuts so many want also means growth that is far weaker than what's currently priced in.

A jobs day math problem. Current run rates: * Job Growth (post-QCEW revision) = 0% * Average Weekly Earnings Growth = 3.4% * Core PCE inflation = 3% Solve for HH real demand growth.

Today is a good reminder that betting on growth to be weaker than what is priced into markets is best expressed as long bonds and short stocks, risk-matched.

Seems the edges of the labor market look to be deteriorating quite a bit more rapidly than the headline numbers suggest.

Many think there's no reason to worry about weak growth b/c stocks will get bailed out in the end. That's not how cycles work. 25bps cuts don't matter. Neither does this long-end move. Turning the economy requires big stimulus, and that's not coming without far more pain.

Job Growth Nears Stall Speed Nearly all labor market triangulations point to continued anemic hiring. Hopes for a rebound post-tariff clarity have faded, leaving weak job growth a risk for income-driven demand ahead. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Third year I've had the opportunity to stop by @brettehouse.bsky.social course at @columbiauniversity.bsky.social Amazing to see the class grow from a few dozen students to 200 & standing room only this year. bsky.app/profile/bret...

Not only is Orlando my favorite travel destination but it is also home to @MoneyShow 2025 Oct 16-18th. Sign up now and catch me Sat 10/18 at 245pm. orlando.moneyshow.com?scode=066034

Unlimited August performance update: unlimited.docsend.com/view/rdziaaw...