Japanese crude oil inventory chart is one of the wildest through the Hormuz crisis thus far.

The man’s a prophet. @roryjohnston.bsky.social #idiocracy

Hope (THE GOAT!) DONALD J. TRUMP will play some of his greatest hits, like “I think the war is very complete, pretty much" "We'll be leaving very soon" or, my favourite "I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination."

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📉😱 Crude prices crater on further—though, as always, unrealized—US-Iran deal optimism and close out largest monthly decline since 2020; more diplomacy needed before physical Hormuz unwinding can begin Summary below, full report in reply

“This is the biggest shock in the history of the oil market... and prices are not yet factoring for that.” — @roryjohnston.bsky.social warns against complacency as oil markets absorb global upheaval. Tonight at 8pm with @jeyantvo.bsky.social | Producer: Mike Attenborough

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest ep of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @edwardfishman.bsky.social, author of one of my favourite books I read last year, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, about the evolution of US Iran policy—and Tehran’s response open.spotify.com/episode/06nX...

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices sink once more on renewed Iran War negotiation optimism, though major diplomatic hurdles remain and the oil market continues to hemorrhage supply. Summary below, full report in reply.

"There's been some slight progress. I don't want to exaggerate it, but there's been a little bit of movement, and that's good," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday. Yeah, who would ever exaggerate progress on Iranian negotiations?

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆? Despite a ~40% collapse in Chinese crude imports, data point to massive Chinese SPR releases rather than true demand destruction. Read in full: www.commoditycontext.com/p/chinese-de...

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much" ~ Donald Trump, 73 days ago

Reuters: "Full oil ​flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return before the first or second quarter of ‌2027, even if the Middle East conflict ended now, the head of the United Arab Emirates' state oil firm ADNOC said"

A brief [updated] history of presidential oil market jawbones through the Hormuz crisis.

Iran latest peace proposal—little changed from proposal Trump called "garbage": 1. US ends the blockade 2. US lifts all sanctions 3. US releases all frozen funds 4. End the hostilities on all fronts (inc Lebanon) 5. US withdraws all military forces near Iran 6. Iran gets paid war reparations

It’s always very funny when people who don’t read much believe that an em dash means that something was written by AI.

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈 Crude prices rise back toward $110 and term structure firms again as US-Iran talks stall out and Trump’s trip to China fails to yield any meaningful breakthrough. Summary below, full report in reply.

Love that US respondents to this Reuters poll 1) broadly believe that Trump failed to explain the goals of the Iran war 2) broadly disagree that the US strategy in the war is clear 3) are nonetheless pretty sure Trump will achieve his [unknowable] goals No notes.

Hormuz transit traffic by ship type, direction (in/out), and maritime route—including dark transits

Trying to teach the senior intern that, despite what this super duper extra deluxe essential handbook says, in this house we only recognize the 151 OG Pokémon.

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices pull back, once again, on hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the Hormuz stoppage despite a resurgence of violence to levels not seen since the announcement of the ceasefire last month. Summary below, full report in reply.

US gasoline crack spread (i.e., refining margin) continues to ratchet higher. WAY above the norm, currently tracking 2022's trajectory.

Latest Hormuz transit update. Added project freedom.

Reuters: "Let's stay with the facts. The volumes were highly unusual. They were concentrated. They were ahead of ​key announcements," said Jorge Montepeque from Onyx Capital Group, who ​helped design the modern system of setting oil prices ⁠at pricing agency Platts in the 1990s"

Is the Strait of Hormuz open? You be the judge:

Full episode with @roryjohnston.bsky.social: www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/218-...

Over three-quarters of the global population has never lived through a major global energy crisis, such as those of the 1970s. In early 2026, that is about to change as the world faces the largest energy disruption in history.

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices climb amidst ongoing deadlocked diplomacy, the third month of the Iran War, breaching the billion lost barrel threshold, and the UAE announcing an abrupt departure from OPEC. Summary below, link to full report in reply.

US gasoline crack spreads sitting at their highest level since 2022. Brent crude is currently going for ~$107.50 per barrel. New York Harbor gasoline going for $150 per barrel. And summer driving season is about to kick off.

Seeing some confusion on the feed re: Brent prices/volatility and today's expiry. Today is the last day of trading for Brent's June contract (white), and tomorrow the July contract (blue) becomes the "prompt" price most of us see when we search "Brent crude price"

The Economist cover is right this time [if Hormuz remains closed, which is still is]

June Brent > $122/bbl July Brent >$113/bbl In the current crisis, that July price is a much bigger deal than the June price.

July Brent crude now sitting above $110/bbl, a new Hormuz crisis high.

Brent crude June futures > $119/bbl

Thereeeeee sheeeee goessssss US commercial petroleum inventories fell by a headline 17 million barrels, PLUS another 7.1 million barrels of SPR crude draws. 13.3 MMbbl total crude draw (comm + SPR), 6.1 MMbbl gasoline draw, 4.5 MMbbl diesel draw.

BIG news today in OPEC land. “UAE says it has decided to exit OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1 in line with country’s strategic and economic long-term plan, according to state-run WAM. Some thoughts below 🧵

<dead stare at 13 MMbpd of shut-in non-Iranian Gulf oil production capacity, roughly 8x the volume of Iranian exports>

“Some administration officials believe that continuing the blockade for 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 would cause significant long-term damage to Tehran’s energy industry” (emphasis mine)

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude notched its first weekly gain since mid-March amidst another week of waiting, seven more days with Hormuz closed, and another 91 million Middle East Gulf barrels unproduced. Check out the summary below and the full report in the reply.

🫠 To be clear, the "congo line" cometh because others are willing to may more for American barrels, which is how the global deficit price pain spreads to North America.

I had an absolute blast joining the Geopolitical Cousins pod to talk about the Hormuz oil supply hole. Come for the barrel math, stay for the "which Twitter replies drive me to douse myself with gasoline and light a match" game. open.spotify.com/episode/4CKP...

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗲 Making sense of relatively low crude prices through nearly two months of the largest oil supply shock in history www.commoditycontext.com/p/sanguine-s...

A brief history of presidential oil price jawbones through the Hormuz crisis. Feel free to add your favourites below.

If Iran wants its future threats to re-close the Strait of Hormuz to be seen as serious leverage vs a future US administration, it's going to be tricky for Tehran to reopen the Strait before we see more acute—and truly undeniable—economic harm than we've currently seen realized.

no need to include the rest, first 7 words really sum up Trump's vibe atm

Hey, folks, remind me—did the JCPOA cede any go-forward control of the Strait of Hormuz to Tehran?

I always recommend watching @roryjohnston.bsky.social's appearances. One of the most reliable analysts of the tangible impacts of Trump's Hormuz Crisis. www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9el...

NYT: “Iran still has about 40 percent of its arsenal of attack drones and upward of 60 percent of its missile launchers — more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage in the future.” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/u...

Busy and chaotic morning in the Strait of Hormuz > handful of ships make it across the Strait this morning > then at least one Indian tanker reports it was attacked by Iran, forced to turn back > Iran declares the Strait is closed again

“open and/or rapidly opening”

Two days apart.

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices cratered and term structure flattened on Friday following Iran’s declaration that Hormuz is “open” despite the fact that little traffic has actually managed to cross the Strait today. Summary below, link in reply.