There’s an epidemic of restaurants offering schnitzel with spätzle and the latter is just noodles.

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices fell, weighed down by both fundamental pressure and a broader equity market pullback; futures curves have resumed their descent toward prompt contango while refined product markets spiked. Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw45w25 Summary:

Microsoft: "I don't think you can overbuild"

*CHINA, EU SAID TO JOIN BRAZIL CARBON MARKET COALITION PROPOSAL

“But, I mean, we all know that OPEC doesn’t have a price target—they say they don’t even look at prices, right?”

gotta remain liquid, folks

As everyone today mourns the lack of US employment data I'd like to remind y'all that this is the 6th week without a CFTC Commitments of Traders data release.

💀 Gunvor-Lukoil deal dead. Bloomberg: “Gunvor Group withdrew its offer for the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil producer Lukoil PJSC after the US Treasury Department said the oil and gas trader would never get a license and called it “the Kremlin’s puppet.””

CRUDE TERM STRUCTURE Crude curves weakening again, Brent prompt timespreads got as low as 20c earlier today (rebounded a bit since) while WTI still sitting at only 13c.

🇨🇦🛢️🚢 Canadian seaborne crude oil exports. Three ways to go.

Carney getting closer to that majority.

Really enjoyed reconnecting today with Rory Johnston, oil & gas analyst, publisher of a top newsletter on energy, and fellow Torontonian... follow him for actionable takes on commodity markets 👇

Are budget day ribs a thing? Because they are now.

Trump thought this is how Iraq should have worked and now maybe he’ll try his way. New York Times: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...

In the new Canadian federal budget, we see a ~10% downgraded oil price outlook through end-decade compared to the last budget. And a pretty darn narrow spread for oil prices between upside and downside scenarios.

🇨🇦 Word count in the Canadian federal budget: Crude: 4 Oil sands: 3 Oil and gas: 14 Pipeline: 5 (none of which are about actual pipelines) Tanker: 0 LNG: 17 Natural gas: 14 Carbon: 94 Emission: 64

🇨🇦 OIL AND GAS EMISSIONS CAP I... have no idea what this means.

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives. Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...

so many people love to confidently declare what commodity is or isn't needed in the context of export infrastructure expansion, based mostly off prior-confirming vibes and headlines can't wait until they discover price signals

when I'm working on geospatial visualizations and I try to convince myself I like non-Mercator projections

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives. Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...

This used to be a joke.

🇨🇦🛢️🚢⛔️🇺🇸 Canadian crude exports to destinations **outside of the US** hitting all-time highs again of ~700 kbpd through September. This is thanks to continued high utilization of the Trans Mountain system combined with a bounceback in US Gulf Coast Re-Exports.

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with Arjun Murti about the transition from super cycle to super volatility, as well as how best to anchor yourself in a market increasingly defined by foundational data disagreements. open.spotify.com/episode/0faP...

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈🇷🇺 Crude prices and term structure rise from the dead 🧟 on the back of surprisingly harsh US sanctions on Russian oil that threaten to dramatically tighten what were weakening oil market balances. Full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw43w25 Summary:

🇨🇦🇺🇸 Reagan generally opposed tariffs Reagan in specific cases used tariffs Pretending Reagan loved tariffs is stupid Ontario gov't anti-tariff Reagan ad was a performative waste of money Trump doesn't need good reason—which this isn't—to blow up negotiation And that's all

India is the most commonly cited source of forward demand growth optimism in the oil market. It has also roundly disappointed those expectations so far this year, with the Big-3 forecasting agencies cutting the 2025 demand growth notably over the past half-year.

oil market rn

Reply guys in full swing with various geopolitical theories about OPEC-Trump strategic oil cooperation (re: Russia, etc)

is this Abundance?

"Lower oil prices will bring with them a necessary supply-demand correction ... Still, it will be important to remember that the low prices realized over the next year or so are themselves likely temporary, an echo of the artificial tightness experienced in 2023 and 2024."

Taking a walk down memory lane this morning. 4 years, completed by 2012—seems like a slam dunk, guys

Backwardation is bullish because it reflects tight supply-demand balances, which boosts prices… … which is bearish because the cure to high prices is high prices Contango is bearish because it reflects loose balances, which collapses prices… … which is bullish because…

Hi everybody, this is Colonel Drake from that other social media platform called Twitter/X. I'm passionate about energy, I like the outdoors and I can get political but keep it in the rational middle. Hello Bluesky!

🚨 Trying something new with the @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social, publishing some **unpaywalled** oil thoughts for a more general audience Before delving into the deeper debates, I wanted to start with a primer on where oil markets stand today and how we got here Read: thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...

🚨 Trying something new with the @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social, publishing some **unpaywalled** oil thoughts for a more general audience Before delving into the deeper debates, I wanted to start with a primer on where oil markets stand today and how we got here Read: thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...

Headline quote in the Financial Times calling Keystone XL Canada’s “zombie” pipeline on my birthday. Dreams really do come true, guys. 🥳 Full story: on.ft.com/3LeqWfy

🙌🏻 Can’t discuss the IEA’s astronomically large global oil market supply glut scenario forecast for 2026 without some aggressive hand-talking. ~4 MMbpd implied surplus, ~1.5 BILLION barrel implied stock build. Check out my full BNN Bloomberg interview here: www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/...

🌮

this is where the President of the United States announces important policy changes

Currently attempting to write a more general audience summary of where we're currently standing in the oil market and

Keystone XL has become some weird meta-meme in the place of actual progress in Canada's oil industry. Never built but never fully dead, always there when someone needs it.

Interesting—imho, south to the US, doubling down on Canada's current extraordinary market concentration, remains the least strategic (yet typically most "commercial") direction for Canada's next crude oil export pipeline But it's still better than no pipeline (Proponent TBD...)

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 Beijing’s Long-Term Oil Problem Perceptions of China’s structural foreign fuel dependence are driving both the oil market’s biggest support (SPR buying) and heaviest drag (from world-leading to flatlining demand growth) www.commoditycontext.com/p/beijings-l...

wife hung some early Halloween decorations and now they keep setting off my doorbell cam and giving me a heart attack with the notification pic

Why does an obsession with energy insecurity dominate Chinese policymaking? Exhibit A:

You should all subscribe to this. Great things to come.

the thing is that when people can't just be normal and cooperate we all end up having less freedom and flexibility in public space

Every month the same Reuters/Bloomberg: OPEC+ delegates are discussing a ___ kbpd production hike Official OPEC comms: nonsense! Rumours! Fools! We don’t discuss things ahead of time, we only speak (think, even!) at the meetings <Meeting comes, OPEC does exactly the rumour>