🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 🚀 Hormuz flows and Gulf loadings have definitively rolled over amidst mounting Middle Eastern attacks while the oil complex rerated sharply higher across flat crude prices, term structure, and refined product cracks Summary below, full report in reply.

Brazen. RTS: Trump Media & Technology Group has unveiled a paid, licensed data feed that will give banks ​and trading firms "the fastest" access to posts from influential Truth Social ‌accounts, such as President Donald Trump's, whose posts often move global markets www.reuters.com/technology/t...

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I was joined by the one and only Jeff Currie for a wide ranging conversation about the theory and reality of crude price discovery running into the shock case study of the Hormuz Crisis. [links below]

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY🛢️ Crude prices jump, see largest weekly gain since mid-May as Iran’s attempt to control Hormuz shipping flows prompted another round of skirmishes that threatened a broader collapse of the MOU ceasefire Summary below, full report in reply.

things are quickly devolving again in the Middle East and I'm worried this is really going to tarnish the the diplomatic brand of Versailles

My latest contribution to @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social Energy: 𝗜𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗢𝗶𝗹 ‘𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴’? Reduced global refinery capacity, not corporate greed, is keeping pump prices high. Free to read: thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...

Amidst fresh ship strikes by Iran, Hormuz shipping flows have moderated slightly and shifted sharply back toward the northern Iranian route from the southern Omani one.

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices were effectively flat this week amidst a comparatively-quiet stretch of summer headlines, with all eyes on the optimistic-but-lurching resumption of Middle Eastern shipping activity. Summary below, full report in reply.

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 Assessing the pace and sustainability of the faster-than-expected post-MOU recovery in oil flows—both ways—through the Strait of Hormuz and the still-lagging pace of fresh Gulf loadings. www.commoditycontext.com/p/getting-ou...

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 💀 Crude fell another $8.50/bbl and Brent slipped into prompt contango for the first since February as the surge of exiting Hormuz barrels hit a still weak Asian import market with China on the sidelines. Summary below, link in reply.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: On the latest episode of Shift Key, @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social talked with @roryjohnston.bsky.social about why we never got $200 oil. And it’s probably not for the reason you think. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...

Was a pleasure to rejoin @weisenthal.bsky.social and @tracyalloway.bsky.social to talk about how the world managed to avoid the extraordinarily high demand-destructive pricing I initially thought would have been made necessary by a months-long closure of Hormuz open.spotify.com/episode/1tIm...

China secretly saved Trump's ass -- and the whole global economy -- after the Iran attack. Fascinating talk between @roryjohnston.bsky.social and @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social ... heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

Listened to this on the way into work today and still digesting all the implications but @roryjohnston.bsky.social remains one of the most important observers of the last several months. heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

This was a really interesting podcast if you’re wondering what the new normal looks like in the Persian gulf

The data is now clear: China saved the world — and Donald Trump — from the worst economic impacts of the Iran War. How? That’s what today’s SHIFT KEY is all about. I talk to @roryjohnston.bsky.social about “the most important thing we learned from the Iran war” and what it means for the future:

If you want a practical take on what's going on with oil and what's coming up - Rory's excellent. Listened to him on Australia's MOM pod (👇) a few hours ago. Huge ability to buffer shocks shown by China. youtu.be/98Gq6c4kENg?...

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I was joined by @mercoglianos.bsky.social to talk about the nitty gritty of what drove shipping behaviour through the Hormuz crisis and how long it will take to normalize flows. open.spotify.com/episode/7its...

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude plunged and curves flirted with prompt contango on the back of massive speculative short-selling following the announcement and signing of the US-Iran MOU to end the Iran War and reopen Hormuz. Summary below, full report in reply.

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices sank to the lowest weekly close since February on the back of a whiplash shift from missiles flying across the Gulf to what most parties are now presenting as an imminent MOU-signing. Summary below, link in reply.

@roryjohnston.bsky.social This came to mind while listening to you on the Macro Voices podcast. "Rory at Night, Spring/Summer 2026"

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉 Crude prices rose through Wednesday before pulling back to end the week only modestly higher; all’s quiet on the US-Iran negotiation front, and all eyes on China’s plunging crude imports. Summary below, full report in reply.

An excellent read. I’ve really enjoyed following Rory.

My latest contribution to @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social Energy A Beginner’s Guide to Reopening the Strait One day, some day we’ll get a deal—here’s what the arduous and multi-step process to reopening Hormuz will inevitably look like whenever that day comes thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...

My latest contribution to @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social Energy A Beginner’s Guide to Reopening the Strait One day, some day we’ll get a deal—here’s what the arduous and multi-step process to reopening Hormuz will inevitably look like whenever that day comes thedispatch.com/newsletter/d...

Japanese crude oil inventory chart is one of the wildest through the Hormuz crisis thus far.

The man’s a prophet. @roryjohnston.bsky.social #idiocracy

Hope (THE GOAT!) DONALD J. TRUMP will play some of his greatest hits, like “I think the war is very complete, pretty much" "We'll be leaving very soon" or, my favourite "I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination."

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📉😱 Crude prices crater on further—though, as always, unrealized—US-Iran deal optimism and close out largest monthly decline since 2020; more diplomacy needed before physical Hormuz unwinding can begin Summary below, full report in reply

“This is the biggest shock in the history of the oil market... and prices are not yet factoring for that.” — @roryjohnston.bsky.social warns against complacency as oil markets absorb global upheaval. Tonight at 8pm with @jeyantvo.bsky.social | Producer: Mike Attenborough

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest ep of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @edwardfishman.bsky.social, author of one of my favourite books I read last year, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, about the evolution of US Iran policy—and Tehran’s response open.spotify.com/episode/06nX...

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices sink once more on renewed Iran War negotiation optimism, though major diplomatic hurdles remain and the oil market continues to hemorrhage supply. Summary below, full report in reply.

"There's been some slight progress. I don't want to exaggerate it, but there's been a little bit of movement, and that's good," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday. Yeah, who would ever exaggerate progress on Iranian negotiations?

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆? Despite a ~40% collapse in Chinese crude imports, data point to massive Chinese SPR releases rather than true demand destruction. Read in full: www.commoditycontext.com/p/chinese-de...

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much" ~ Donald Trump, 73 days ago

Reuters: "Full oil ​flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return before the first or second quarter of ‌2027, even if the Middle East conflict ended now, the head of the United Arab Emirates' state oil firm ADNOC said"

A brief [updated] history of presidential oil market jawbones through the Hormuz crisis.

Iran latest peace proposal—little changed from proposal Trump called "garbage": 1. US ends the blockade 2. US lifts all sanctions 3. US releases all frozen funds 4. End the hostilities on all fronts (inc Lebanon) 5. US withdraws all military forces near Iran 6. Iran gets paid war reparations

It’s always very funny when people who don’t read much believe that an em dash means that something was written by AI.

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈 Crude prices rise back toward $110 and term structure firms again as US-Iran talks stall out and Trump’s trip to China fails to yield any meaningful breakthrough. Summary below, full report in reply.

Love that US respondents to this Reuters poll 1) broadly believe that Trump failed to explain the goals of the Iran war 2) broadly disagree that the US strategy in the war is clear 3) are nonetheless pretty sure Trump will achieve his [unknowable] goals No notes.

Hormuz transit traffic by ship type, direction (in/out), and maritime route—including dark transits

Trying to teach the senior intern that, despite what this super duper extra deluxe essential handbook says, in this house we only recognize the 151 OG Pokémon.

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices pull back, once again, on hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the Hormuz stoppage despite a resurgence of violence to levels not seen since the announcement of the ceasefire last month. Summary below, full report in reply.

US gasoline crack spread (i.e., refining margin) continues to ratchet higher. WAY above the norm, currently tracking 2022's trajectory.

Latest Hormuz transit update. Added project freedom.

Reuters: "Let's stay with the facts. The volumes were highly unusual. They were concentrated. They were ahead of ​key announcements," said Jorge Montepeque from Onyx Capital Group, who ​helped design the modern system of setting oil prices ⁠at pricing agency Platts in the 1990s"

Is the Strait of Hormuz open? You be the judge:

Full episode with @roryjohnston.bsky.social: www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/218-...

Over three-quarters of the global population has never lived through a major global energy crisis, such as those of the 1970s. In early 2026, that is about to change as the world faces the largest energy disruption in history.