Putting boots on the ground around Persian gulf will potentially make these numbers even worse for Trump and the Republicans. No wonder their rank and file in Congress are freaking the F out.

No it’s good!

The administration & its enablers seem to be betting that nothing Trump says and does actually matters because the various institutions of the world depend so much on the United States that they’ll make sacrifices to fix the serious stuff before he cripples fundamental structures

In fairness her boss does not belong in the WH

Neither does she — belong in a WH briefing room.

Been saying this for some time: MAGA are the new adherents to the doctrine of the Two Whatevers.

That 25% support among independents for Trump is consistent with my estimated vote by party reg in the recent Florida special elections

--->

Trump is also underwater with noncollege whites and even noncollege white *men*

New Fox poll finds that 75% of independents disapprove of Trump's performance as president. That's bad, right?

Glad to see @adamgurri.liberalcurrents.com take on David Leonhardt over 1965 immigration act. I'd add Leonhardt's theory of 2024 (positing durable anti-immigrant cultural shift) is now discredited, yet fellow restrictionists have circled wagons (see below): www.liberalcurrents.com/editors-note...

Another example of this: Dems asking for ICE/CBP restrictions. They say, "All we're asking for is the same rules that govern local police. All we're asking for is something reasonable that most Americans support." To which the right responds: You leftist terrorists want to murder law enforcement.

“They have been defeated militarily and will continue to be” is my favorite. We’ve destroyed 100% of their military capability, which is why we’re trying to negotiate peace with them.

Part of the allure of Trumpism for his followers is that they perceive him as extending this power to them. I've seen it with family members, who just seem so relieved that they can just believe whatever they wish were true, and ignore troubling facts.

“[WH] reporters have an opportunity to say directly to any spokesperson: What is your evidence for that? Why should we believe what you’re saying? The opportunity to challenge this administration directly, to be a little more pointed and a little bit more intentional about asking for [evidence].”

"The pink-hat-wearing liberal women who have marched consistently against Trump...are regularly discarded as “wine moms.' But this is wrong. Those marches mattered." Agree very much with @aselrod.bsky.social here: Wine mom politics is good.

This is essential listening for understanding the real roots of Pete Hegseth's bloodlust:

Note, if Trump really wanted to hold someone accountable for bad information, he could do so with Jared and Witkoff, who genuinely ARE providing him insanely bad information. Might get difficult with Ivanka. And Putin.

newrepublic.com/article/2081... Here is where @emilyhorne.bsky.social tells @gregsargent.bsky.social that the NBC News story we were all talking about yesterday may be a sign that Trump is getting ready to blame the Pentagon for giving him bad info:

Read this post from @swin24.bsky.social and @andrewperez.bsky.social (zeteo.com/p/the-thug-o...) in conjunction with listening to @gregsargent.bsky.social's podcast this morning with @emilyhorne.bsky.social (link follows in thread)

It's worth remembering the same bluster came from Trump on Afghanistan during his first term. He massively increased the war, dropped the largest non-nuclear bomb ever, and claimed all sorts of things. By the end of his term the Taliban was stronger than when he took office, and we know the rest.

The interweaving of specific, religiously apocalyptic language with what should be substantive, daily updates is no accident. We hear it across departments, cabinet officials, surrogates, etc. Takes me back a bit to the fire & brimstone sh*t that I sat through in a past life (derogatory).

"The president's preference is always peace." —Karoline Leavitt Donald Trump has a track record of finding it too difficult to maintain peaceful relations with *checks notes* the state of Minnesota.

Doing her best Baghdad Bob impression.

Karoline Leavitt is now basically saying the truth is whatever Trump says it is. She says he'll "unleash hell" on Iran. This cultlike sadistic BS is appalling at a moment of such gravity. It doesn't belong in WH briefing room. @emilyhorne.bsky.social and me on this: newrepublic.com/article/2081...

This is the fate of America. Nothing will even change if the change isn't seen as a divine act by Trump that will celebrate him as the almighty person he believes himself to be. Everything is meant to make him glorious. And this is extremely disturbing, and completely unAmerican.

Definitely worth a listen

Idiots

It was a mistake electing the most insecure man alive and giving him control of the world’s most powerful military and nuclear arsenal.

Notable: The White House's absurd cult-like flattery of Trump's handling of the war is boxing them in: He won't want to accept any deal that doesn't look like a world-historical triumph for him. On the pod @emilyhorne.bsky.social is great on this/other Iran matters: newrepublic.com/article/2081...

And this is why Tucker Carleton and MTG are smart and knew when to start opposing Trump with Israel. It’s also why Ben Shapiro is getting excised from their club

Sometimes young voters are wrong but not today and not with this

A whopping 71% of young voters oppose Trump's war on Iran, while only 21% support it, and a solid majority of young voters say Trump's war is making America weaker, per Quinnipiac data provided to me: newrepublic.com/article/2076...

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News --> More than 100 Jewish faculty and staff members at Harvard write an open letter saying Trump's attacks on the university, done in the name of fighting "antisemitism," are actually contrary to the interests of Jewish people:

Good points from @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social here about how Trump boxed himself in on Iran by boasting about how easy winning the war would be:

We have enough bad ideas and racist assholes in Texas already without Stephen Miller butting in.

"There’s no method. It’s just madness." @asharangappa.bsky.social on the folly of trying to divine Trump's motives for his decisionmaking on his war fiasco: asharangappa.substack.com/p/the-illusi...

Plyer v. Doe is the most important civil rights/14th amendment case no one has ever heard of.

"the emergence of a permanent subcaste is intolerable within a national constitutional culture based on equality." ‘Miller really wants to end that "constitutional culture based on equality."’

A lot of what Trump is doing is incredibly unpopular w the average American. The Republican Party is heading for a wipeout in Nov. Yet Trump—and those around him—keep doubling down on the most toxic parts of his presidency to appeal to extremist audiences on social media. The made-for-X presidency.

New poll from @gelliottmorris.com has Trump's approval at 37%, Dems leading the generic House matchup by 49-43, and majorities rejecting the basic premises of Trump's war. Elliott came on our podcast and explained all these numbers. It's an illuminating chat. Enjoy: newrepublic.com/article/2081...

Trump Throws Stephen Miller Under the Bus in Surprise Show of Panic ▶ On the surface, Trump wants less attention paid to mass deportations. Meanwhile, Miller is taking new and hidden steps to wreak havoc in the lives of undocumented children undefinedewrepublic.com/a/…

The assault on the 14th Amendment is an assault on every freedom we have as Americans.

Super important story - I suspected they would come for Plyler v. Doe. And of course they are, and it's Stephen Miller. Behind the scenes. Because of course.

Texas, trial run for the nation, of course 👇🏼

When this is all over, these people need to be sent into exile.

Stephen Miller wants to get a red state to end funding for public education for undocumented kids, to get a case before the Supreme Court so the right-wing justices overturn the court's previous prohibition on denying education to these kids. This will be a big deal. New piece on this here:

Gross. And it's probably a good time to point out that native Spanish speaking students are necessary for some of public school districts more popular programs, like dual language immersion, where native English speakers and native Spanish speakers learn together and become fluent in both languages