Very short summary of this paper:

Very excited that my paper with @katakeith.bsky.social is now out in @polanalysis.bsky.social. We investigate whether LLMs actually follow the instructions/definitions provided in codebooks, propose some diagnostics, and release a new evaluation dataset. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

It's important to remember the 🐺 Wolf Number 🐺 In 2021 @today.yougov.com found that 12% of Americans said they'd beat a wolf in an unarmed fight ⁉️ When you see a survey response split 85/15, remember: 12% of people will say literally anything on a survey. today.yougov.com/society/arti...

Modest #APSA2025 proposal: Move all panels, receptions, meetings, etc. to Stanley Park. Just describe the tree you are meeting under, and count on everyone to find you.

🤔 (I really don't think India is interested in the opportunity to be a treaty ally with the US if they have to drop historic partners who aren't currently imposing tariffs on their exports to do so)

So far during the second Trump administration, this puts the US military at: —1,000+ air strikes in Yemen (in March-April) —65+ air strikes in Somalia —5 air strikes and 2 JSOC ground raids in Syria —1 night of B-2 strikes on 3 sites in Iran —1 air strike in Iraq —1 air strike in the Caribbean

Syllabus plug! Here's what I assign on how to give feedback (of which peer reviews are a special type, imo)

A veteran US Navy SEAL reflects on Gaza dbarkhuff.substack.com/p/i-should-b...

🚨 Just accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social! Paolo Bertolotti, Fotini Christia, Ali Jadbabaie, and I use 12 billion Yemeni cellphone records to study the effects of U.S. drone strikes on civilian mobility and displacement. We Find: 🧵: 1/3

How amazing is ChatGPT! I just tried turning publishers' citation manual PDFs into .bst files. It's a super efficient way to make all your LaTeX citations show up like this: The future is amazing.

A bit buried in the text here, but: UChicago is apparently pausing/ending graduate training in one of the best South Asian Studies departments in the country.

📢🗣️...Are you a graduate students about to go on the market? Or perhaps you're just interested in research presentations. If so, check out my free two-day workshop: The Research Presentation as Storytelling

Very excited that FSU is hiring this year. I am not on any of the committees, but I'm happy to talk to anyone about what it's like to work at FSU. Drop me a note, or find me at APSA next month!

Florida State University’s polisci dept just posted 3 jobs: a junior job in American political behavior and open rank jobs in American public policy and American public law/judicial politics. The Polisci dept here is a great place to work. Come join us! Happy to answer questions if you have them.

I agree Chat GPT is "like having a team of PhD-level experts in your pocket" in that I usually spell traveling as travelling (with three Ls)

I'm looking forward to presenting on this panel, which I'm sure will not be as ominous as our title makes it sound!

What am I missing? It seems like this graphic shows that Mamdani also got ~7pp more of the first-choice vote than Cuomo. Doesn't that mean Mamdani would have won without ranked choice...even assuming that *zero* Lander voters made a strategic adjustment?

Here's the letter that NSF sent UCLA last week about cutting its research funding NSF says UCLA is doing affirmative action by asking applicants' their zip codes, family income and what HS they went to, and that they can discuss race in personal statements storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

I've been at Georgetown for ~23 years. I've been on the PhD admission committee for the Government Department for well more than half of that time. AMA.

My RA sent this interview with RADM Huan Nguyen because his testimony about un-predictability, lack of agency, and becoming a refugee from Vietnam is really compelling. I waited too long to click the link and ... the Navy deleted the page. I wonder why? www.linkedin.com/posts/us-nav...

GMU is, to put it mildly, *far* from a bastion of progressive thought (the Antonin Scalia law school; an econ program that trumpets its Ludwig von Mises/Austrian Economics curriculum). Every college or university president needs to understand if they come for Mason, they will come after you too.

the president does not actually have the power to fire a university president or a museum director, but if elites simply roll over under pressure, then effectively he does

Another day testing the limits of resilience. The Alexandria NSF building was designed for the NSF merit review process (gold standard), complete with a floor devoted to panels. Now we aren’t allowed to have in person panels. The loss of US science leadership will haunt this country for decades.

Great, important scoop by @stevenbeynon.bsky.social www.military.com/daily-news/2...

academic folks: Harvard international students may need to begin immediately transferring out in order to avoid having to leave the country If it sounds insane, that's because it is what will your institutions do to help?

At this point I'm pretty sure that Trump is simply trying to destroy Harvard as an institution as a way of demonstrating his power and make everyone else submit.

Here's the letter Noem sent Harvard, as posted on X. Nothing alleges ANY specific violation of the Student and Exchange Visitor Program. Nothing. She cites no law violated, no regulation broken, no policy ignored. I don't care what you think of Harvard; this is clear weaponization of government.

This is not a game, this is affecting people's lives... I can only imagine what it's like to be a student at Harvard right now -- not to mention that this hangs as a threat over every single international student in the US.

"Imagine the auto industry without 3D printing. NSF funded that. Artificial intelligence? NSF. MRI machines that help doctors diagnose you? NSF. Doppler radar technology that makes aviation safer by conquering wind shear? NSF. Duolingo‘s underlying programming? NSF. The internet itself? NSF."

If you're wondering about how bad things can get between India and Pakistan, listen to my discussion here (taped late last week) with Sameer Lalwani. This episode is outside the paywall. warontherocks.com/episode/thin...

Our call for the 2025 Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC) Annual Meeting on Geostrategic Opportunity and Upheaval on October 9-10 is up! Submissions due on June 16. W/ Yuri Zhukov @laiabalcells.bsky.social @austinlw.bsky.social @renardsexton.bsky.social More here: esoc.princeton.edu/events/2025/...

"Bright young men from UChicago Econ arrive to help your government" has worked out 0/1 times in the past.

Currently in FirstView: “Synthetically generated text for supervised text analysis.” @ahalterman.bsky.social proposes using LLMs to generate synthetic training data for training smaller, traditional supervised text models.

Great new paper by Stagnaro & Amsalem in NatComm: Detailed fact-based informational module about gun control leads to persistent reductions in polarization (attitudes move towards midpoint). Seeing the evidence cited by other side makes opinions more moderate www.nature.com/articles/s41...

There are students at FSU who, in 20 years on earth, have barricaded themselves in classrooms for *two* mass shootings. This is the sixth mass shooting in Florida this calendar year, and the 575th school shooting in America this century. What is wrong with us.

Unbelievable. I know we all expect it, but it's unbelievable.

"It’s rare that in retrospect US foreign policy failures turn out to be the result of listening too carefully to area specialists. Avoiding rule by experts doesn’t imply destroying all expertise, nor does pursuing efficiency require gutting valuable institutions for a pittance of savings."

"Administration officials talk a big game about waging major power competition with China – and then gut the places that produce data and analysis and eliminate the programs that could be sources of influence."

Why would a student choose to go where the govt has begun kidnapping & exiling students & destroying the $ & years of investment they made towards their degree? This will undermine global demand for U.S. higher education services, a $44 billion/year U.S. export, widening our trade deficit.

Here's one of the many clarifying passages in the White House (notionally GSA) letter. It demands Harvard set up a system of political commissars who will enforce hiring and admissions set asides for MAGA luminaries and high school red hats.

Exclusive: Days before masked ICE agents detained Tufts University student Rumeysa Ozturk to deport her, the State Department determined that the Trump administration had not produced any evidence showing that she engaged in antisemitic activities.

This is going to be an utter catastrophe for higher education. Foreign students pay full freight and subsidize US students - this plus research and other Federal funding cuts is doing to eviscerate 25-26 budgets.

This is exactly right. We have a duty to our students to defend their right to live and work freely and safely in the United States, and we have a duty to our institutions and communities to advocate for our own best interests. These are completely aligned.

USIP funded dissertation research for hundreds of peace and conflict scholars over the years. I will always be grateful for their support, and I'm furious about what has happened to the organization. You can support fired USIP staff by grabbing a cool shirt here: www.bonfire.com/usip-defunde...

Our country is stronger when it can compete for global talent, and young Americans are incentivized to study harder when they know they need to compete against the best people globally. To make Americans more competitive, we should improve our education system, not engage in protectionism.

Last night’s article in the Washington Post about D.C. police responding to a 911 call by illegally letting DOGE onto private property is unlike any news story I have ever read. Every single person should read this article and think about where our society is going.

Mahmoud Khalil should be at home with his pregnant wife. Instead, he's been illegally abducted & had his constitutional right to free speech & due process stripped. We're demanding his immediate release and we cannot allow this abuse of power to go unchecked. #FreeMahmoudKhalil

How Trump is exploiting a loss of faith to attack the American university indianexpress.com/article/opin... via @IndianExpress