Aidan Milliff
@aidanmilliff.com
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📥 926
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Political Scientist
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Aidan Milliff
Book Alert!
@pstaniland.bsky.social
and I have a new Cambridge Element out now — and free to download through May 18. It's the result of nine years of digging through historic survey data on how the Indian public thinks about major powers. Read it here:
www.cambridge.org/core/element...
2 days ago
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Book Alert!
@pstaniland.bsky.social
and I have a new Cambridge Element out now — and free to download through May 18. It's the result of nine years of digging through historic survey data on how the Indian public thinks about major powers. Read it here:
www.cambridge.org/core/element...
2 days ago
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Aidan Milliff
Paul Staniland
2 days ago
New book!
@aidanmilliff.com
and I spent years tracking down survey data from the late 1950s-2025 on how the Indian public has viewed China, the US, and Russia/USSR. We use the data to explore trends and patterns. Cambridge has made it Open Access until 5/18, so go read for free here:
t.co/YtNCz74758
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Aidan Milliff
Alyssa Heinze
9 days ago
We are organizing a pre-conference workshop at EPSS on the Politics of South Asia. To present, discuss, or attend, please submit your info by May 13th:
forms.gle/pXaKtTLifJAY...
Please circulate widely! If questions, contact me,
@aliz-toth.bsky.social
or
@simonchauchard.bsky.social
!
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Watching this made me so unbelievably happy. Wout is one of the best characters in professional sports.
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24 days ago
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How is this not a threat to kill innocent people?
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about 1 month ago
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Operation Names can also be used for peaceful purposes.
aidanmilliff.com/post/project...
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about 1 month ago
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[Claude.md that just says “fear me”]
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about 1 month ago
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Aidan Milliff
Will Lowe
about 1 month ago
Now is the time for posting thoughtful discussions of the role of LLMs in academia. I don't have one of those. But Machiavelli does.
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Aidan Milliff
Judah Grunstein
about 1 month ago
It would be useful if the NYT explicitly stated that the pilot, if captured, would be a POW, that there are laws governing how POWs can be treated, that respect for international law on war shapes how the enemy approaches it, and this is why the US conduct of this illegal war has been so dangerous.
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Missing Airman Raises Concerns That Iran Could Gain Leverage Over the U.S.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/04/world/middleeast/missing-airman-iran.html
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Bob Kopp
about 1 month ago
If I read this reporting correctly, NSF is preparing to shut down SBE (social, behavioral, economic sciences) *in anticipation* of the FY27 budget, despite Congressional instructions that no directorate receive more than a 5% cut in FY26.
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It was worth a shot.
about 1 month ago
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Destroying civilian infrastructure in war is wrong, and probably against the Law of Armed Conflict
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/o...
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Opinion | America Is Abandoning Morality
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/opinion/international-world/is-trump-threatening-to-commit-a-war-crime.html?unlocked_article_code=1.XVA.UVUE.wXJxayV-6uE7&smid=nytcore-ios-share
about 1 month ago
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Astute point in the linked paper (Hathaway with
@azmatzahra.bsky.social
) about "mistakes" in war: If you don't change procedures to prevent them from happening again, in what way are they really "mistakes"?
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about 1 month ago
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Me after I vibecoded a task manager that just eats tasks.
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about 1 month ago
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TBH people are taken aback by how much a *political science* grad degree is "I Hope You Like Matrices." I turned out to really dig it, but I don't think I knew what I was signing up for...
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about 1 month ago
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Intentionally targeting civilian infrastructure is a war crime in *some* cases. Russian officials were indicted by the ICC in 2024 for strikes targeting Ukraine's electrical grid
ysph.yale.edu/news-article...
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about 2 months ago
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Aidan Milliff
Garrett M. Graff
about 2 months ago
Astonishing. The goal of our war is now to undo the effect of the war we started. Gosh, if only we could rewind to, say, four weeks ago when the Strait of Hormuz was open and normal!
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Dare Obasanjo
about 2 months ago
Just a year ago, we heard reducing the deficit was so important Elon Musk had to fire as many scientists, forest rangers and Black women on the government’s payroll that he could find. Now? 🤷🏾‍♂️
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Aidan Milliff
Wesley Morgan
about 2 months ago
The peak annual supplemental for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was the $196 billion the Bush admin requested in 2008 as the Iraq surge wound down and Afg ramped up. The two Iraq supplementals in 2003, the year of the invasion, added up to $167B. (Invasion one alone was $79B.)
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Good reminder for Iran today from Steve Coll’s The Achilles Trap: Betting on “self regime change” is something the U.S. has done before, and lost.
about 2 months ago
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Good thread. MEU is a very small unit in ground combat terms but a kind of big unit to pull out of the Western Pacific
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about 2 months ago
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Aidan Milliff
Rory Truex
about 2 months ago
open.spotify.com/episode/1GU9...
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Bonus Episode: The Prospects for Democracy in Iran | Daniel Tavana, Penn State University
Spotify video
https://open.spotify.com/episode/1GU9avNgGl5Jjz33MYwuzs?si=e66bfdc6ac744145
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Aidan Milliff
The Associated Press
about 2 months ago
BREAKING: The UN refugee agency says up to 3.2 million people in Iran have been displaced by the ongoing war. Follow AP’s live updates.
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Live updates: Oil price tops $100 a barrel as Iran attacks on shipping worsen supply concerns
Iran targeted the world’s busiest international airport Wednesday and attacked commercial ships as U.S. and Israeli strikes rocked Tehran, while the United Nations' most powerful body demanded a halt to the Islamic Republic’s strikes on its Gulf neighbors that threaten global oil supplies.
https://bit.ly/4s80FjS
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Aidan Milliff
Elizabeth N. Saunders
about 2 months ago
They could have read (yes, I know) this piece by
@proftalmadge.bsky.social
from [checks notes] *2008* entitled “Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz”!
www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/4/1/85419560/closing_time.pdf
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Wat.
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about 2 months ago
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Hey man, none of us signed up for this. 700k displaced by strikes in Lebanon:
www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03...
Pentagon says 140 service members injured in Iran war:
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/w...
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Pentagon Says 140 Service Members Have Been Injured in Iran War
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/world/middleeast/us-injuries-iran-war.html
about 2 months ago
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Apropos of nothing, here's a campaign analysis from 2008 by
@proftalmadge.bsky.social
www.belfercenter.org/publication/...
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Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz
How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to op...
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/closing-time-assessing-iranian-threat-strait-hormuz
about 2 months ago
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Aidan Milliff
Phil Klay
about 2 months ago
“Our government is treating the suffering of the Iranian people as a backdrop for our own entertainment, as if it’s just another piece of content to be swiped through …But we lose our humanity when we are thrilled by the destructive power of our military.”
www.archchicago.org/en/statement...
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Aidan Milliff
Caitlin Talmadge
about 2 months ago
The aspect of this war that reminds me most of operations in Iraq is the part where we're conducting operations in Iraq. đź‘€
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
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Iraq Becomes Battleground for U.S. Forces Once Again
The U.S. is targeting militias that have carried out dozens of attacks in a show of support for Iran.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iraq-becomes-battleground-for-u-s-forces-once-again-e1e537c1?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdxri8BjhimezQYpAhldX_xd2qs8OHtmtNvQj03mbGgmbzrbPpUYO7PvCWbHPw%3D&gaa_ts=69aebf6d&gaa_sig=HIlm0ennzDvXZUuj2r82TOJpSQJWMXoHyLB7TVXMmxITdRsFja0hvIBYVkMeGdBwLa9bf6eaCXSF3N4VNLd6Pw%3D%3D
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Aidan Milliff
Kelsey Atherton
2 months ago
fwiw here's the sourcing I saw at 1am about the US sinking of an unarmed and knowingly unarmed Iranian Navy ship
x.com/KanwalSibal/...
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Aidan Milliff
Mara Revkin
2 months ago
Excited to be co-organizing the Multi-Method Conflict Consortium at Duke May 15-16 with
@meganastewart.bsky.social
&
@dotanhaim.bsky.social
! Advanced PhD candidates and postdocs are invited to apply for our funded Junior Fellowship, deadline March 10:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
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Thinking a lot about this quote from Phil Klay's Missionaries this week.
2 months ago
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Kind of a behavioral law: if you have nine explanations for doing something, you actually don’t have one.
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2 months ago
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Aidan Milliff
Caitlin Talmadge
2 months ago
"There is anxiety among senior leaders that fighting will extend for weeks, stressing limited U.S. air defense stockpiles. 'There is concern about this lasting more than a few days. I don’t think people have fully absorbed what that has done with stockpiles.'"
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
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U.S. troops killed amid Iranian counterattack, fueling air defense fears
U.S. forces say they have hit 1,000 targets over the past two days in a race to take out Iran’s ability to threaten American personnel and allies across the Middle East.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/01/us-troops-killed-iran/
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Aidan Milliff
Anna Grzymala-Busse
2 months ago
At all three places where I taught, veterans and military students are admired for their service, their ability to get their academic work done quickly and extremely well, and for often balancing family and school. Not *once* have I ever heard a faculty member disparage a military student.
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Follow Karim and
@carnegiemec.bsky.social
generally for this.
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2 months ago
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Aidan Milliff
Kieran Meadows
2 months ago
In the past, sometimes presidents have said it’s just a military operation or limited airstrikes to skirt Congress. Trump has unilaterally launched major combat operations, declaring war with the goal of regime change. A major violation of the U.S. Constitution, also illegal under international law
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Celeste Pewter
2 months ago
Do it now. Yes, you can leave a message. Yes, call the DC offices. Script here again.
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This war would be strategically dumb and morally wrong even if it were “free.” It is not going to be “free,” for Americans or Iranians.
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2 months ago
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This is flying below the radar, likely because the US has not fought a high-end conventional adversary in decades. Even the most expensive military in the world can actually get to the bottom of the stockpile.
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2 months ago
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Read this whole thread
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2 months ago
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Aidan Milliff
Caitlin Talmadge
2 months ago
The notion that this is a war to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats" from Iran is simply fantastical. This is a straight-up preventive war a la Iraq 2003.
www.cnn.com/2026/02/28/u...
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Trump releases video message on strikes against Iran | CNN
In a video posted to Truth Social, President Donald Trump encouraged Iranians to seize control of their government when US military operations conclude. He also warned American lives may be lost as a ...
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/28/us/video/trump-video-us-israel-iran-strike-hnk-digvid
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I overlapped with three active duty officers in grad school. All were good people. I learned a lot from each, and I think they became better, more thoughtful leaders for their time at MIT. 1/2
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2 months ago
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3 months ago
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reposted by
Aidan Milliff
Rodger Sherman
3 months ago
NBC ran a piece where Mary Carrillo went to Norway to find out why they're so good at the Winter Olympics and i was yelling BECAUSE IT'S COLD THERE then she went to a little tiny ski jump for kids and was like "it's free, equipment is provided, & they don't emphasize results" and i was like. oh!
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Omar Wasow
3 months ago
”What turns people into radical jihadist clerics? A new book suggests thwarted career ambitions. A subset of Muslim clerics who advocate for jihad started out as mainstream clerics looking for state-sponsored jobs…only to become unemployed, disenchanted, and radicalized”
news.mit.edu/2017/why-som...
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Aidan Milliff
Mike Hixenbaugh
3 months ago
"As a member of the press, I filmed the church protest a few weeks ago and now I'm being arrested for that," Indipendent journalist Georgia Fort said. "It's hard to understand how we have a Constitution, Constitutional rights, when we can just be arrested for being a member of the press."
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Journalists Don Lemon, Georgia Fort arrested in connection with church protest against ICE
Lemon's attorney said he was taken into custody by federal officers Thursday night in Los Angeles, where he was covering the Grammy Awards.
https://www.kare11.com/article/news/local/ice-in-minnesota/journalists-don-lemon-georgia-fort-arrested-in-connection-with-church-protest-against-ice/89-a9df2642-4f6e-425b-8562-208cefa48843#
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