Version 2.0 of the National Elections Database is online! nationalelectionsdatabase.com We cover presidential and parliamentary elections 1789–2023, extending the post-1945 data of Electoral Turnovers @reveconstudies.bsky.social (academic.oup.com/restud/advan...) w/ Benjamin Marx and Vincent Rollet

📊 Exciting update to our German Election Database! Our federal election panels now include the 2025 German federal election. Download the data here: german-elections.com/election-data/ A thread about what is new:

New (first! 🥳) Publication 🚨 High-street retail vacancies, capturing economic decline, are linked to increased support of UK's populist party, UKIP (now Reform).

Preprint with @vheddesheimer.bsky.social Economic Insecurity Increases Affective #Polarization and Outgroup-Aversion osf.io/preprints/os... You may remember I'm on team "precarity" not team "social media." Causal / diff on diff evidence from Dutch panel study LISS en.centerdata.nl/liss-panel

Out now! "GERDA: The German Election Database." GERDA provides comprehensive municipal, state, and federal election results at the municipality level between 1990 and 2021. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Our paper "GERDA: The German Election Database" is out in Nature: Scientific Data! We collected and harmonized election results for federal, state, and local elections for 1990-2021. Updates for more recent elections, pre-1990 elections, and county elections soon!

Like this paper? Here's another that will be right up your alley. Here, the authors merge voter files & online resumes to create a dataset of 34.5M people. They show that Dems & Reps choose distinctive career paths and employers. This leads to a lot of partisan segregation at the workplace.

How do parties tailor their campaign ads to women? 🗳️👩 Excited to share that my paper on how parties adapt their ads is out now at @thejop.bsky.social! 📖 Read it here: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... A quick breakdown of the findings ⬇️🧵

With correct link: Just published on APSR First View: "Plutopopulism: Wealth and Trump’s Financial Base" by Sean Kates, Eric Manning, Tali Mendelberg, and Omar Wasow. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Daughters of immigrants are more upwardly mobile than daughters of locals in most destinations. Sons of immigrants are only more upwardly mobile outside of continental Europe, from Boustan, Fjællegaard Jensen, Abramitzky, Jácome, et al https://www.nber.org/papers/w33558

"Sorting for K Street: Postemployment Regulations and Strategic Wage Setting in Congress" by Elisa Maria Wirsching. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Just published on APSR First View: "Without Roots: The Political Consequences of Collective Economic Shocks" by Simone Cremaschi @simonecremaschi.bsky.social, Nicola Bariletto, and Catherine De Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

The DOGE Purge Isn’t About Efficiency—It’s an authoritarian tactic. I wrote a more in depth piece on the empirical evidence showing how liberal-leaning agencies are being disproportionately targeted and how this mirrors authoritarian strategies seen in Hungary and Turkey.

New working paper! In this research note, @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social, and I present the first systematic test that causally identifies the electoral consequences of state-sponsored homophobia: osf.io/preprints/os... 🧵Thread

About 214,000* Germans living abroad had registered to vote** in yesterday's election. Because this was a snap election with a compressed timeline, many voters didn't receive their absentee ballots in time.*** I'm one of them: mine arrived today. The day after the election.

Immer spannend zu sehen wen die AfD so auf Facebook und Instagram versucht zu erreichen 😅

🚨 Pub alert 🚨 I am incredibly excited that my first publication with the amazing Yannick Pengl, @carlmc.bsky.social, Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc Girardin has been finally accepted @apsrjournal.bsky.social ! We study the consequences of increased state reach in multiethnic states. 🧵 [1 / 4]

New article now out in @thejop.bsky.social. We provide a new framework for the costs and benefits of parties' anti-elite strategies and use a novel measure based on parties' twitter messaging to analyze when they become more anti-elitist. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

My fantastic co-author Julian Voss has meticulously compiled municipality-level election results for Post-WW2 Western German elections (1949-1969) from historical records. What a great resource! Read the paper, use the data: osf.io/preprints/os...

New Working Paper: Teenage boys and girls in Norway are more ideologically polarized than ever. Using data for 130,000 high-schoolers over 34 years, I find that a surge in anti-feminism among boys is driving much of the recent trend.📈 Read: osf.io/preprints/os... Findings 🧵👇

🚨 New @apsrjournal.bsky.social Paper! 🚨 In “When Migrants Mobilize against Labor Exploitation: Evidence from the Italian Farmlands,” I study how empowering undocumented migrants can reduce labor exploitation and even weaken organized crime. Thread : 🧵

New article accepted at CPS. @denis-cohen.bsky.social @thmskrr.bsky.social and I analyze how rental market risk affects radical right support. Combining data on local rent increases with the SOEP, we find that individuals facing increasing local rents become more likely to support the AfD. 🧵

Also, as @vheddesheimer.bsky.social @hannohilbig.bsky.social and I found in this paper, this could intensify support for the AfD osf.io/preprints/os...

Trump argues mass deportation will reduce housing costs. In contrast, study finds increased immigration enforcement causes shortages of construction labor and “large reductions in residential construction… [which] is associated with increases in home prices.” www.haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/u...

New paper in @apsrjournal.bsky.social with @andreasbeerli.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, and Dalston Ward about #immigration and voting for the #FarRight in #Switzerland

We are happy to announce the new DFG-funded longterm German Longitudinal Environmental Study (GLEN). @glen-study.bsky.social will provide representative, individual level panel data on human-environmental interactions and climate issues. glen-studie.de #sciencenews #Klimawandel #climatechange

Do exchange rates affect elections? Yes!   See new paper in International Organization, with Dennis Quinn and Stephen Weymouth: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Here is my new paper with @hannohilbig.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social in the American Political Science Review-- "Wealth of Tongues: Why Peripheral Regions Vote for the Radical Right in Germany" bit.ly/3S9qBfU

My first post over here: our new paper in @cpsjournal.bsky.social shows that IMF interventions can increase public support for adjustment policies.

Exxon move is very bad news for democracy and esp. climate policy: allowing Big Oil to get Bigger concentrates its political influence, making it more capable of thwarting policies that a majority of voters would otherwise want Greensky energysky

Why are civilians abused and killed in during conventional war? Using data from Ukraine, Julius Koch and I put forward a new explanation: The threat to combatants posed by long-range weapon technology.   The paper is here: osf.io/z38sq/ , and we would be grateful for comments!

A great paper up the alley of ipesky cpesky climatesky

1/ New Pre-Print When do firms engage in climate politics? We argue that lobbying occurrence, intensity, and targeting depend on the multifaceted potential impacts of climate change on firms. A short 🧵https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/yq27d/ Polisky

Germany must invest to neutralise the far-right threat https://on.ft.com/3LKxmRk

Delighted that this article on measures of affective polarization w/ NoamGidron, Will Horne and Jim Adams is now available online in POQ 🥳 We examine the relationship between hostility towards out-parties and out-partisans across 10 countries. Our novel dataset is also available on dataverse!

“Nostalgia in European Party Politics: A Text-Based Measurement Approach” (with Sven-Oliver Proksch) has been accepted for publication in the British Journal of Political Science! Paper (PDF): muellerstefan.net/papers/bjps_... polisky cssky 1/5