Vincent Pons (@vinpons.bsky.social)

Why the 2024 US election, and so many others, were so hard to predict Despite claims in the past that demographic trends would lead to either the Republican or the Democratic party dominating politics, US presidential elections continue to be close contests. Using data covering 1952 to 2020, this column argues that forecasts based on accurate projections of demographic trends would have predicted elections less accurately than a coin toss. Parties changing their platforms in response to demographic shifts helps explain the near-even split of the electorate in so many US presidential elections. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/why-2024-us-election-and-so-many-others-were-so-hard-predict