Reducing access to abortions ... - increases families' economic hardship, - increases families' debt, - increases income inequality, - increases housing insecurity, and - increases financially motivated crime rates.

The pretty draft is now online. Link to paper (free): www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10.... Our replication package starts from the raw data and we put real work into making it readable & setting it up so people could poke at it, so please do explore it: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

Academics in 2025 be like “recent research shows…” and cite a 2001 study.

Be honest: how many tabs do you currently have open?

whoa

School counselors' recommendation letters for minority students are shorter and emphasize character over achievement.

What’s the adult version of “will this be on the exam?”

New year means beardless Holbein for the first time in 6 years!

Lol incoming freshmen were born in 2007/2008. We’re old.

What's been the most influential piece of research in your area in the past decade?

This week I saw preprints from academics at very serious institutions that confidently predicted that ... 1.) there will be no humans by 2339 and 2.) Congress will be dominated by the Democrats in 2050. Wild, since I can’t even predict what's gonna happen tomorrow.

BREAKING: A new experiment in Philly shows cash rental assistance slashed homelessness rates by 57–67%.

The same paper makes the bold prediction that "by 2339 there will be no humans."

Forget 95%; the real ones flex with 66% confidence intervals.

Today I had a paper rejected because it was not “novel” enough. That's bizarre; it had a love story, character development, a plot twist, and a cliffhanger ending that set up a sequel.

Political scientists: can you help me with something? I'm adding suggested podcast episodes to my Politics of Public Policy syllabus this year. I need a podcast episode on these two topics: -Agenda Setting -Policy Feedback Anything come to mind? Thanks in advance!

I feel like monetizing Tweets + Substack's growth has made this issue so much worse. Now all the pundits/wonks get paid to spout off their opinions on anything and everything--expertise be damned--to get those precious clicks. I don't have a solution.

it's ok to not have a take on everything

Look at what happened to divorce rates in Mexico when some areas extended the school day by 3.5 hours! Why did divorce rates go up as a result of the change? "The availability of childcare...translate[d] into increased bargaining power and economic independence for women."

finally realized why economics reviewers take forever.

The bigger story here is that we should ban pie charts altogether.

academics to summer

This preprint (R&R at REStud) argues that slavery accelerated Britain’s industrial revolution.

Drop some scientific jargon and suddenly you sound like an expert. To the public, technical language is less about clarity and more about signaling authority.

Now do academics

so I guess we can just wait it out

A one-time, no strings attached $1,000 transfer literally saved the lives of a ton of kids in Kenya.

You know? I've changed my mind. We should celebrate those who respond to science by saying "I'm not surprised." These folks are oracles! They intuit the direction, significance, magnitude, heterogeneities, & mechanisms for all possible studies. They should be cherished & protected at all costs.

The authors' solution is to propose that as a natural experiment gets reused to up the t-statistic that would constitute statistical significance. It's basically a multiple hypothesis correction. It's an interesting and intuitive idea. I kind of like it from an empirical perspective. However...

"Conditional cash transfer could substantially contribute towards reducing AIDS-related inequalities and achieving the AIDS-related Sustainable Development Goal."

European foothold in North America, 1750

Climate models since the 1970s nailed it—most predicted global warming almost exactly as it happened.

"After a natural experiment is first used, other researchers often reuse the setting, examining different outcome[s]..." "...we use simulations based on real data to illustrate the multiple hypothesis testing problem that arises when researchers reuse natural experiments."

obvious trolling. don't take the bait.

Lol the hard sciences appear to be leaning hard on ChatGPT to write their papers.

Lighthouses in the U.S. A few inland!

Cash transfer reduced AIDS incidence and AIDS-related mortality in Brazil. Score one for team cash transfers. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

WTH, Apple!

"A zero-sum mindset is strongly associated with more support for government redistribution, race- and gender-based affirmative action, and more restrictive immigration policies."

lol you can see very clearly that Economists are using ChatGPT to help write their abstracts.

"Our evidence demonstrates that learning music has a lasting positive impact on non-cognitive skills, suggesting that universal educational music programs can be a powerful, long-term tool for human capital development and inequality reduction."

Music training significantly improves both emotional intelligence and mental health into young adulthood.

Wait--DEI FTW?!?!?

What happened when Brazil passed right-to-work legislation in 2017--banning mandatory union dues? Workers' wages fell notably as a direct result.

The effect of unions on wages has been a classic topic of interest in economics for over a century. Do unions raise wages? Well, it turns out, there's a lot of heterogeneity in union wage effects! Some unions decrease wages, some raise wages, and some have very little impact.

Many ideologues simply ignore scientific evidence that goes against their priors.

Racial diversity in healthcare providers reduces disparities in healthcare outcomes.