🧵New piece from me @goodauth.bsky.social on risks of striking Venezuela, focused on the added risk from Trump team of loyalists. Hint: it has to do with centralized role of Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, and the incompetence of advisers like SecDef Hegseth. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...

1/When @himself.bsky.social and I wrote about the future of US economic coercion we hoped that the tools could be used for global collective goods like climate. Now US “evaluating sanctions on officials sponsoring activist-driven climate policies”’ on.ft.com/4qJF3Ko

As a Dutch friend, I agree with this and I don't think it means that votes will be "lost." It is up to the other parties to figure out how to attract those voters who really care about animal rights, pensions, Christianity and so on.

The Dutch election is more of a reshuffling than a major realignment of the electorate but fragmentation of the far right will still likely bring a centrist government coalition. My quick takeaways @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/three-t...

Three quick takeaways from the Dutch elections: @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/three-t...

Read Anjali Dayal on the UN and also listen to her podcast To Save Us from Hell open.spotify.com/show/2WBQHl2...

New out in @apsrjournal.bsky.social. We show how the AfD in Germant was able to use opposition to the green transition to attract voters in highly polluting occupations and communities that rely on those occupations.

The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand: $678M raised through those spam tactics $282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies. $11M to actual campaigns (1.6%) The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.

New UN ideal point estimates available. These are for the first time based on years rather than UNGA sessions. For more, see here: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

This is fantastic. Very excited by this development in European Political Science. Please come and join us. Get involved. Sign up to the listserv. Etc

🚨Global public action (climate!) is most effective when countries do it together yet we're in a period of IO backlash rooted in left-behind places Does it mean all left-behind regions hate IOs the same? @patrickbayer.bsky.social & I have a paper accepted @bjpols.bsky.social abt this🧵 osf.io/rtymv

I have a new short piece in Foreign Affairs with @profmichaelross.bsky.social arguing that "the United States’ emergence as the world’s leading oil and gas producer is a critical and often neglected element of today’s global disorder." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

(Finally) out in the Journal of Politics: Do Domestic Climate Rulings Make Climate Commitments More Credible? Evidence from Stock Market Returns." A quick thread on paper and process www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

BREAKING from @science.org: The Trump admin is seeking to kill nearly all climate research at NOAA, its climate science agency. Its near-final budget proposal would end all NOAA research labs, academic institutes, and regional climate centers. And it wants to fully end the NOAA Research division.

Trump’s policies are terrible for even the people who support him. Episode 34276 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Important and yet another illustration of both how pointless and harmful these tariffs are.

Whenever the news comes that people are turning on Trump there's some guy who will come out of the woodwork and say "Well, his base wont care", but it's important to remember that it took way more than Trump's base to get him elected and all those people are souring on him.

Another great data visualization by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com (the article says that the non-MAGA group is larger but not by how much, which would be useful to know). Trump chaos is alienating Republicans www.ft.com/content/26d1...

On Fox News, the tariffs are already having positive effects. No mention of a stock market crash.

Maybe Trump is a closet degrowth leftist? His entire economic plan implies dramatic reductions in consumption. #DegrowthDonnie

Donald Trump has committed the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era. Almost everything he said—on history, economics and the technicalities of trade—was utterly deluded econ.st/3YbbFjq

Puzzled by where Trump's numbers on tariffs charged on US exports come from? Do they seem oddly high? Especially given all this talk about how trade is too liberalized? What are actual tariffs charged on US exports? 1/ @econsky

The estimator will be fine. But if the US will keep voting this way, we will see a pretty rare radical switching in sides, like Cuba after Castro and Iran after the Islamic revolution....... Or we could see a new second dimension.

Support for Ukraine at the UNGA, 93-18, 65 abstentions; the US swinging to vote with Russia, which I’d argue is the most dramatic shift in US policy at the UN since its founding 80 years ago

This may be the type of feedback the Administration would actually listen to. European stocks outpace Wall Street since Donald Trump took office www.ft.com/content/3436...

If you read my book, you’d know I’m largely critical of HIV/AIDS interventions in Africa. But PEPFAR literally keeps millions of people alive. That’s just the truth, easily visible in the data. goodauthority.org/news/pepfar-...

DOGE is a grenade in the heart of US national security, chapter 291: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social

Featuring @nplusonemag.com, @newlinesmag.bsky.social, @proufos.bsky.social, @nescio13.bsky.social, @erikvoeten.bsky.social, @jeanhong.bsky.social, @goodauth.bsky.social, @gilmorejon.bsky.social, @williammparis.bsky.social, @leftofphilosophy.bsky.social, @mattseybold.bsky.social...

Last year I spoke with Barbara Walter for @goodauth.bsky.social about the war in Gaza. Her forecasts were eerily accurate. Last week we did a quick update on what's likely to happen next goodauthority.org/news/whats-n...

My conversation with @johnsides.bsky.social and Danny Hayes on @goodauth.bsky.social on what the evidence says on what really determined the 2024 elections goodauthority.org/news/so-what...

Join us at the Mortara Center for a panel on trade's future under the new presidential administration, part of our “In the News” events series! The Mortara Center Director @erikvoeten.bsky.social will be joined by professors Marc Busch, Nuno Limão, and Nita Rudra. Registration link: lnkd.in/exQEJYiM

Interesting discussion with @erikvoeten.bsky.social as a courthouse was smashed and the president was indicted in Korea. Such rollercoaster months since December last year.

In the latest @goodauth.bsky.social podcast, I spoke with @jeanhong.bsky.social about South korea’s January 6th moment, the emergence of a Korean far right, and democratic resilience. goodauthority.org/news/whats-n...

I’m excited to share my new ROIO article on voting at the UN. Building on data by @erikvoeten.bsky.social and others, we’ve created the first complete database of all UN votes and decisions. We show that using more complete roll-call data can really matter. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

1/Reminder: The AfD is not just any far-right party. Its leaders use Nazi slogans, members have been arrested for allegedly spying for the Chinese, and it is monitored as a suspected extremist group. Even the French National Rally has broken off relations. www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

Grateful that @alexandraguisinger.bsky.social wrote this explainer on tariffs for @goodauth.bsky.social. Feel free to share, especially with anyone who clearly doesn’t know how tariffs work.

Read this for an in depth take from @jeanhong.bsky.social and Hye Young You on what's next for South Korean democracy (also great for those of you still assembling spring syllabi in comparative politics)

Ouch

In an explainer for @goodauth.bsky.social, I share some historical and contemporary context to martial law in South Korea and Yoon's botched attempt yesterday. goodauthority.org/news/martial...

I was in Seoul just over a month ago. While people were worried about impeachments/polarization/political impasse/scandals, I didn't hear anyone who anticipated this. But here is an oped from September warning about martial law written by a high level general: www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/...

As bad as things are, there are political solutions that can mitigate South Asia's winter pollution. @claryc.bsky.social had a good chat w/ @saadgulzar.bsky.social about his recent article in Nature w/ @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social. goodauthority.org/news/can-bur...

The new NYT piece on China's supply chain strategy reveals how Beijing is rewriting the rules of economic warfare. Trump's claim that "China pays for tariffs" fundamentally misunderstands modern economic power. Here's why: 1/ www.nytimes.com/2024/11/27/b...

Also, as @vheddesheimer.bsky.social @hannohilbig.bsky.social and I found in this paper, this could intensify support for the AfD osf.io/preprints/os...

Note that this is bad for Germany but probably also for the planet. Steel production in Germany is less carbon intensive than Chinese steel production. Steel is 11% of global emissions and it has gotten more carbon intensive over the past 10 years as production has shifted towards China and India.

Important thread. An even more extreme response would be to expand the provisions of The Hague Invasion Act beyond US citizens.

Fitting. I'm calmly awaiting the follow-up.

It was great having a conversation with @dadakim.bsky.social and @erikvoeten.bsky.social on recent trends in democratic consolidation/erosion in African states. The discussion was based on recently published articles in the Journal of Democracy. Have a listen!

Hear the latest episode of our podcast -- @erikvoeten.bsky.social speaks with @simonhix.bsky.social about his forecast of a sharp right turn in upcoming European elections. Subscribe to our podcast: goodauthority.podbean.com Listen to a snippet of the episode: youtube.com/shorts/r9A6l...

New article "The Energy Transition and Support for the Radical Right: Evidence from the Netherlands" now out at @cps_journal doi.org/10.1177/0010...

There's a lot to learn from Hungary's experience with democratic backsliding, so I was grateful to listen to & learn from @erikvoeten.bsky.social's conversation with Dan Kelemen. If you use Apple podcasts, you can subscribe to @goodauth.bsky.social's podcast here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...