My essay in this weekend's @ftweekend.com, featuring terrific charts and analysis by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com:

🚨 New working paper! 🚨 @grattonecon.bsky.social and I just completed the first draft of "The Rise and Fall of Technocratic Democracies". Excited to present it in Munich this week—thanks to Laura Seelkopf, Christoph Knill & others for hosting us! 🧵👇 ▶️ Motivation Many democracies have undergone a

Shot, chaser Young men more likely to vote Green than Reform. Young men second most progressive group of any demographic. Combined right-wing vote barely bigger than Green vote alone for young men

It’s journalism’s obesogenic environment problem. Everyone knows you’re meant to eat your greens (speak to domain experts, double-check), but social media has created a sea of cheap and convenient (open an app), hyper-palatable (sensationalised, alarmist), nutrient-poor (dubious veracity) options.

Grimly crisp illustration of the mechanism whereby toxic and unrepresentative social media shapes mainstream coverage. Prominent journalist logs onto X, sees claim, assumes truth, repeats in national broadcast from trusted mainstream news org. Happens all day every day, just especially stark here.

British economic sentiment is following the US in becoming an increasingly partisan signal. There has been a red-blue sentiment gap for decades, but it’s widening (data: @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social / @keiranpedley.bsky.social)

British NIMBYism is truly a sight to behold. “We are rejecting this solar farm, because one time I saw an electric vehicle on fire, which reminded me that decades ago a coal mining disaster killed lots of children”.

If a Labour government with 400 seats which has nailed its colours to the masts of planning reform and the green transition can't steam roller people like this and their ridiculous selfish BS objections, then what on earth is the point of it?

Great to see a really positive development in the UK’s social science data infrastructure.

Often see the assumption that although Labour is losing more voters to the centre-left than the right nationwide, the opposite must be true in the north of England. In fact, the only region it's true is Scotland. It's not 2019 any more!

Extreme views are heavily over-represented on social media Social platforms’ tendency to reward hostile content creates incentives that systematically reward simplistic messages and extreme positions and this fuels populism www.ft.com/content/9251... via @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

NEW: The first evidence of a solar take-off in Africa☀️✈️ x33 rise in Algeria solar panel imports in the 12 mths to June 2025, compared to previous 12 mths. x8 in Zambia x7 in Botswana x6 in Sudan x3 in each of Liberia, DRC, Benin, Angola, Ethiopia 🧵

In a few weeks (Saturday 6th September), Greg Jackson and I will be speaking with Pilita Clark at the FT Weekend Festival. Do come along if you're interested in clean energy, climate change (and many other interesting talks at the festival!). ukftweekendfestival.live.ft.com

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

AI replacing jobs is generally (and understandably) framed as a bad thing, but if LLMs mean huge numbers of poorly-paid people no longer have to spend their days watching the most abusive, graphic and violent content the world has to offer, that feels like a good thing www.ft.com/content/d277...

A rare, somewhat personal thread/appeal. Recently, @jburnmurdoch.ft.com wrote in the FT about the crime paradox - a sense that while violent crime is falling, 'disorder' is rising, "compounded by the sense that criminals are operating with impunity." www.ft.com/content/7488...

This is a truly excellent piece by @stephenkb.bsky.social Face it guys, you have to pay the doctors www.ft.com/content/e263...

Are Men & Women Scrolling Apart? @jburnmurdoch.ft.com joins me to discuss gendered polarisation. - Does this hold worldwide? - Which groups are most polarised? - Is this due to economic frustrations or online persuasion? - What are the possible solutions? youtu.be/VrOk1-jChdA?...

The great crime paradox https://on.ft.com/4m1CznY

New 📈✍️- we're hearing a lot about AI decimating graduate jobs. But the data paints a more complicated picture on what's behind the fall in entry-level roles With Delphine Strauss, @jburnmurdoch.ft.com & Sarah Lim on.ft.com/4f1wWmK

New post: "Why are young women increasingly left-wing?" There's been a lot of focus on young men + the right but less on this much bigger political shift amongst young women. Why is it happening? How could it change politics? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

NEW: There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment. I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged: Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay. www.ft.com/content/a9ea...

The most extreme version of this that I’ve heard of is an American private school where parents have to sign a form declaring that their life outside school is also smartphone-free. And I heard this from the CEO of a company that makes a very successful smartphone app, who sends their kids there!

A very good, and rather sad, Big Read on children and reading from @emmavj.bsky.social on.ft.com/4krOKZA How to get children reading again

Enjoyed More or Less this a.m. scrutinising church attendance trends in the light of the recent Bible Society report @stephenkb.bsky.social was sceptical at the time! Especially David Voas' expert input. I had early sight of his recent Conversation piece: theconversation.com/is-there-rea...

Whats happening to birth rates around the world? I’ll be chairing a panel today at 1.30pm on how population change will change our world. With @rebeccasear.bsky.social, Emily Jackson & @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - all welcome in our cool central London building! www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/events/summe...

Why are Tories suddenly using the term "white british" in debates on immgration and citizenship? www.ft.com/content/aceb...

Have written up some of my thoughts about the increasingly sinister use of 'non-UK born' and 'white British' in the British press. The obsession with 'white British' citizens over other British citizens harms all of us and needs to be called out. benansell.substack.com/p/who-counts

"Trump's message is plain. If you commit violence in his cause, he will have your back...America in 2025 is making political murder easier. This is a choice, not fate." My column. www.ft.com/content/e172...

Okay this is getting ridiculous. In addition to the ongoing problems with the UK’s Labour Force Survey, the Wealth and Assets Survey (key source for measuring wealth inequality) has now also had its accreditation revoked due to falling response rates. osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/osr-sus...

The Israelis are calling this a "preemptive" strike. Whether you agree or disagree with this attack, these are not - from what we know tonight - "preemptive" strikes. The Israelis are using that word for a reason. Read on. /1

On Facebook, there is a live "Ballymena Reaction Group" page saying it is a "war" and which has over 2 days posting information to direct attacks, issuing threats, and asking mobs to exempt some houses. It has 4.8k followers We urgently need to Make Facebook & X Lawful Again

Beyond thrilled that Political Fix has won both ‘political podcast of the year’ AND ‘podcast of the year’ at Publisher Podcast Awards tonight!🏆 Alongside amazing FT panel you hear each week, big props to incredible team @manuelasaragosa.bsky.social @lulusmyth.bsky.social, Flo Phillips, Breen Turner

LAUNCH DAY 🚀 Today I’m launching a new podcast, Hard Drugs, with Jacob Trefethen (@jacobtref.bsky.social) Our first episode is about lenacapavir — a new HIV drug that blocks infections with an efficacy rate of nearly 100%, and which could completely change the fight against HIV worldwide.

The ban on asylum seekers working is a failed New Labour era policy designed to manage public opposition to free movement that just ruins towns. A terrible appendix in our system.

Good. The use of hotels was a) designed to immiserate the people in them to avoid a 'pull factor' (didn't work) and b) has been very bad for the towns in them. Now need to end the ban on people working while they claim asylum.

What happened when the U.S. forcibly sent 400,000 Mexican workers back to Mexico in the 1930s? The employment rate of native workers *went down* noticeably as a direct result. (You read that correctly) Why? Forced repatriation destroyed low-skill markets. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

My column this week: how if you want to understand the forces shaping politics, both at an electoral and ideological level, you have to understand videogames:

Centrist pundits claim activist "groups" push Dems into unpopular lefty immigration stances, like supporting Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s return — and hurt them in the polls. But on Abrego Garcia, Trump is the one who lost support, not Dems. New data-driven piece:

Politicians shouldn't rage-bait chart geeks. on.ft.com/4jrlz8h

South Korea gender divide update 😲 Young men lean right by 50 points (74% conservative vs 24% centre-left) Young women lean left by 22 points (58% centre-left vs 36% cons)

"Katwala's paradox of racism" In a demonstrably less prejudiced society (attitudes shifted, esp across generations), I am in receipt of much more racism Minorities in 2020s have more equal opps than ever before - esp at very top - yet an increasingly unequal experience of more equal opportunities

Americans favor labor unions over big business now more than ever, analysis of new data @epi.org from me & Adam Reich of Columbia Labor Lab. In data back 60 years, Americans' sentiments are both warmer toward unions & cooler towards big business than ever before. www.epi.org/blog/america...

Other people appreciating all the tiny design decisions that go into FT charts is my new favourite thing 🥰📈🥰📉🥰

Really looking forward to today’s data visualisation class, where I’ll be going behind the scenes to walk through the little design decisions that can transform a chart. Free to watch for anyone interested: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/designing-... (Recording will be available later)

On Saturday 21 June I’ll be chairing a fantastic panel on the topic of how population change will transform our world. Featuring @rebeccasear.bsky.social, Emily Jackson and @jburnmurdoch.ft.com www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/events/summe...

In short, Starmer has taken a massive hit among Labour voters, for no gain elsewhere, while boosting Farage's popularity, including doubling his ceiling among Labour voters. I.e., the political scientists were right, Morgan McSweeney was horrendously wrong.

Could this be the biggest climate story of the year? For the first time on record, China's emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand Full analysis + outlook by Lauri Myllyvirta: www.carbonbrief.org/... 1/7

Terrific column by @robertshrimsley.bsky.social: www.ft.com/content/3daf...

NEW with @simonkuper.bsky.social: The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong. Players don’t play any more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play. Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.