Essential reading by @jimdickinson.bsky.social on why estimates of the graduate premium are almost certainly too high - and why government is overestimating how much of student borrowing will ever be repaid. wonkhe.com/blogs/the-gr...

When I'm not doing other stuff I listen to an awful lot of radio. This, by @j-amesmarriott.bsky.social, is one of this week's (and, indeed, the next three weeks') absolute must-listens. Really fascinating - and one for fans of @jburnmurdoch.ft.com and @naomialderman.bsky.social too.

I think there is not enough appreciation to how good this FT visualization is the original is like this 👇

@martamiori.bsky.social and I have been writing, since 2024, about why Labour's 'Reform' challenge and emphasis was based on a misunderstanding of Labour's vote. Here for anyone interested: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

🚨 New WP w/ @leonardocarella.bsky.social on OSF doi.org/10.31235/osf... We usually think that social identities precede preferences We show the reverse is also true: people update their social identities to match their immigration preferences Focus: class identity in 🇬🇧 + Christian identity in 🇮🇹

New: Drones are redrawing the map of war in Ukraine. Relentless surveillance has pushed the battlefield 20km beyond the front, in both directions. Supplies arrive by drone; the wounded leave by robot. This is the “kill zone” — and the future of warfare. 👉 ft.com/kill-zone

Such a good piece today from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com which shows that the declining graduate premium is very much a UK problem rather than a general (or inevevitable) consequence of more people going to uni www.ft.com/content/649d...

Turns out (says @jburnmurdoch.ft.com) it's not so much an oversupply of graduates in the UK (the same would be true of other similar countries but it's not) as an undersupply of the kind of jobs that a better-performing, more productive economy would supply.

Really good piece. The falling graduate premium is a consequence more than a cause of low growth ‘Is university still worth it?’ is the wrong question - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

unbelievably good from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com @sarahoconnorft.ft.com on the intensification of (knowledge) work under AI www.ft.com/content/9c6a... It reminds me a bit of when the Internet arrived, that sense of a cornucopia of content, an infinite bookstore, a neverending toread list. 1/

Great piece from @dsquareddigest.bsky.social, which touches on one of the big theories for why English-speaking countries do especially badly at housebuilding: Adversarial and litigious common law systems (Anglo) vs judge-led civil law systems elsewhere. samf.substack.com/p/build-the-...

“Washington today is a kleptocracy… [Trump’s] obviously planning to rig the elections.” Financial Times editor @edwardluce.bsky.social explains how the collapse of America is ‘halfway there’ and how Trump is planning to rig the midterm elections. Watch the full interview: zeteo.com/p/geopolitic...

lads I don't want anyone to panic but I am writing up quite the scorchio take for tomorrow's newsletter

This is actually quite an interesting report, which has been briefed to the press in the most harmful way possible The current system for passported benefits is a mess & requires loads of separate applications - huge unnecessary burden & so many people miss out ukonward.com/reports/the-...

Great work from the FT's John Burn-Murdoch www.ft.com/content/b474...

Very good piece by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com.... The US under Trump 2.0 has shifted towards authoritarianism as record speed but unlike other examples (e.g. Putin, Orban) it's happened by bypassing institutions rather than permanently corrupting them... www.ft.com/content/b474...

Have just subscribed to this AI/jobs newsletter and it's excellent The AI Shift: What millions of job ads reveal about AI displacement - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @sarahoconnorft.ft.com @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

Democratic politicians have, though, pursued growth in GDP at the expense of other values. One response to @jburnmurdoch.ft.com pessimistic scenario is refocus on those values, combined with egalitarianism, sufficiency and quality of life. Not "it's the economy, stupid" but "it's the the society"

🧵 @jburnmurdoch.ft.com is spot on about the conditions in his FT piece. Liberal democracy held it together thanks to growth, good demographics, and the promise of a better future. Those days are gone, and that’s the "why" behind the erosion. However...

There's too many primary school places in London for not enough kids. So schools are competing to stay alive, copying private school marketing tactics with Instagram ad campaigns — and in one case offering a £50 Amazon voucher referral scheme for parents. www.londoncentric.media/i/184437718/...

I just finished a three-year term as an editor at an international relations journal. I began at the start of the LLM era but ended right in the middle of it. Our volume of submissions tripled and our desk reject rate rose to 75%. I have some thoughts. open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...

Debate about London is obscured by the false binaries both sides put on it. Best on it is @jburnmurdoch.ft.com who shows it is both case violent crime down (an undisputed good) & crimes of disorder (shop lifting, snatching) up which affects/is visible to more but far less devastating consequences

‘Contra the narrow focus of policymakers on Stem subjects or coding, now more than ever our economy rewards broad skillsets: team players, problem solvers, good communicators and creative thinkers.’ @jburnmurdoch.ft.com www.ft.com/content/5e25...

I am extremely confused as to why the UK government and police are saying Grok’s mass-scale CSAM generation is an issue for Ofcom. This isn’t about X failing to moderate CSAM, which is an Online Safety Act issue. It is about the company and its technology being actively involved in its generation.

As it's the end of 2025, I'm just reposting our 'Outside the box' starter pack. This features accounts who think across tribal lines. Those on it have ideological sympathies, but are open to different traditions and consider issues on a case-by-case basis. Shares welcome ;-) go.bsky.app/HZxZgvh

What are the stories that will define 2026? @jburnmurdoch.ft.com, the FT's chief data reporter, unwraps the big ideas shaping the year ahead. A little gift from #FTEdit 🎁 Follow for more #FTEditpresents

This is incredibly obviously going to be the rolling problem with a “tougher” immigration stance. We still need people to do things. And, ultimately, either we hire/retain them or the things don’t get done. Everything else is hollow rhetoric.

This by the excellent @jburnmurdoch.ft.com confirms my view that political trends are being driven by the halting of the upward economic conveyor belt - striking charts: www.ft.com/content/30a4... Welcome to the age of zero-sum politics

If you're lucky enough to be able to read the @financialtimes.com these evidence-based conversations between @jburnmurdoch.ft.com and @sarahoconnorft.ft.com are particularly fascinating. Here's the latest.

This is fascinating and disturbing from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com on rise of 'financial nihilism' (cc @aminsamman.bsky.social !) in the asset economy www.ft.com/content/c17a...

Starmer and Reeves run probably the most economically left-wing government of past five decades and yet bleeding support to its left thanks to dumb strategy www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Attention is on NEETs today, but the problem is much worse. NEETs include stay-at-home parents & jobseekers. Strip those out to focus on people not working, not seeking work, not in education & not parenting: this group of economically & socially dislocated young adults has *doubled* in a decade.

Worth noting: • Upward revision applies to entire 2021-2024 series — the *trend* in emigration is *roughly* flat • As infuriating as big revisions are, they mean data is getting better • BUT wild that we ever used a survey to gauge movements into and out of the country instead of counting people!

ONS is so bad. (This is about specifically British nationals.) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Excellent column from @stephenkb.bsky.social on what @alanmanning4.bsky.social refers to as the “infernal circle” of immigration policy www.ft.com/content/1144...

The basic problem with the temporary refugee status policy - especially one lasting up to 20 years - is it leads to very few removals (based on Denmark's experience) but does significantly worsen integration.

Is AI making job recruitment less meritocratic? We're getting some v interesting research studies on this question now, and the news is... not good. @jburnmurdoch.ft.com & I dive in, in the latest edition of our newsletter The AI Shift www.ft.com/content/e5b7...

Quick thread on the BBC and the political and societal significance of recent developments: One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.

Tax policy on the British left is pure "anti-bedtime left". Bizarre idea that you can have a big social democratic welfare state without everyone contributing properly www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Zohran's relentless disciplined campaign was truly impressive - he brought every message/issue back to the cost of living and built a model for what bringing attention to a positive affordability message can look like Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE! x.com/alimortell/s...

NEW: The End of the Line: the centrepiece of Saudi Arabia’s Neom gigaproject - a 500m tall, 170km long wall-like building intended ultimately to house 9 million people - can’t get out of the ground, say more than 20 former Neom architects, engineers and senior executives. ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...

NEW from me: Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent. That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀

2nd edition of our The AI Shift newsletter is out. The question today: could AI be making us LESS productive? @jburnmurdoch.ft.com www.ft.com/content/2480... At the individual level, it's clear we're not reliable witnesses on this Q. At an organisational level, it gets even more interesting...

Read the headlines and you’ll see wildly different conclusions about whether AI is taking jobs or not. @jburnmurdoch.ft.com and @sarahoconnorft.ft.com break down what the data actually shows in their new newsletter The AI Shift. It's free to read here: on.ft.com/4niHdxo

Exciting day: one of my fave colleagues @jburnmurdoch.ft.com and I are teaming up on a weekly newsletter to track what's really happening with AI & the labour market. No hype, just spreadsheets & shoe-leather. You can sign up here to get the first edition at lunchtime today! ft.com/AIshift

Wild story. The US Federal Reserve has long used additional data from payroll-processing company ADP to buttress official jobs numbers. During the shutdown this third party data is extra important for filling the gap. And ADP has stopped sharing the data. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

New post just out: "On the edge" On my unexpected week in hospital and five things I learnt about the state of the NHS. (Free to read) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...

Grid scale batteries are changing our electricity system. Excellent new visual story on batteries in FT today shows just how far this technology has evolved. Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning. ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...

New: How mega batteries are unlocking an energy revolution. A boom in grid-scale storage is solving renewables’ reliability problem and extending the use of clean power. Latest visual story w/ @nassosstylianou.bsky.social @samlearner.bsky.social @inari-ta.bsky.social 🔋👉 ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...

Incredibly useful new story by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com on the 'crisis' for young college grads. Most analyses compare mid-20s workers with/without a degree. But as John points out, the relevant comparison group is actually *new entrants* with/without a degree - most non-degree workers enter at 18-19.