The Government could choose to make cuts to departmental spending to address the deterioration in the public finances. But with some departments, such as Defra, already facing significant real-terms per-person cuts, these would have to go even further.

Ruth Curtice explains why tax rises are needed (tl;dw: to avoid more expensive borrowing). This will need to be done carefully though, to avoid damaging growth, raising inflation or hitting households struggling most with the cost of living.

Reports yesterday that the Government is considering scrapping the two-child limit on benefits in full. This would be a welcome step - fully repealing the two-child limit is by far the best way to ensure fewer children are growing up in poverty.

Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside). Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.

The latest stats suggest the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, as unemployment hits 5 per cent for the first time – outside of the pandemic – in almost a decade.

A surprisingly bad set of labour market stats this morning. The story I was prepared for was "some weakening, but the shake out from the early part of the year is behind us". But it's worse than that - payroll jobs falling again, unemployment now up at 5%. Here is our PN

The impact of lower qualifications follows young people long into adulthood. Barry Fletcher, CEO of Youth Futures Foundation, says the biggest gap is between those who do and don't have a GCSE. Catch up on the full discussion ➡️ buff.ly/AQmrtM0

Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income. The effective tax rate for a self-employed worker equivalent to the median employee in 2025-26 was the second lowest in 50 years, behind only 2024-25. buff.ly/4ppe7Q8

Did you know that government levies have driven more than half of the rise in electricity bills in recent years? @jonnymarshall.bsky.social explains a better way of doing things ⤵️ Read 'Splitting the bill' to find out how to cut costs for three-in-four households 👉 buff.ly/sHhw6L1

How long will the triple lock last? 🔒 Nick Williams shared his perspective at our recent event.

Key childhood risk factors associated with being a NEET (not in education, employment or training) are becoming more common. These indicators matter for policy makers interested in the future NEETs outlook. Read more➡️ buff.ly/kIei4lG

The Government has announced a new independent investigation into rising youth inactivity. In our recent report, we put forward a series of policies to help young people back into work or study. ⬇️ Read the full report here: buff.ly/s3jjW8h

If they don't implement significant policy changes, this Government will preside over the sharpest increase in child poverty by any Labour Government in the last 60 years ⤵️ Read 'No half measures' 👉 buff.ly/04eBps0

Councils’ net temporary accommodation costs have increased more than three-fold in the last decade. Widening affordability gaps between Local Housing Allowance rates and local rents risk pushing more families into temporary accommodation over the coming years. Read more ➡️ buff.ly/uRZx9Bo

In 2024, the UK had the lowest taxes on an average employee of any G7 country. UK taxes for lower earners were also the lowest in the G7. But the UK's position might change in 2025. Read more 👉 buff.ly/4ppe7Q8

Why should we switch 2p of tax from National Insurance to Income Tax? ⤵️ Income Tax raises more money and spreads the burden more fairly. The switch would raise £6 billion, and leave the vast majority of payslips unaffected.

Ahead of the Budget at the end of this month, the OBR is expected to mark down trend productivity growth. GDP growth is likely to be significantly weaker than in the OBR’s March forecast. Read our Budget Preview➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp

This is not the time for half measures. @alexclegg.bsky.social explains why the Government should fully repeal the two child limit on benefits, as part of their upcoming Child Poverty Strategy ⤵️

🚨Event on Thursday🚨 Successive governments have failed to grapple with Britain’s housing challenges, but can the Chancellor afford not to act decisively at this month's Budget? 🏠Register to join our discussion next Thursday⤵️ buff.ly/5SGqeU5

The Budget will be a pivotal moment for a Government looking to improve its mood music. James Smith explains why the Chx should prioritise: 🏦 The public finances 👛 The cost of living 📃 Payslips Read 'Black holes and consolidations' to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp

Ahead of the Budget at the end of this month, the OBR is expected to mark down trend productivity growth. GDP growth is likely to be significantly weaker than in the OBR’s March forecast. Read our Budget Preview➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp

What key steps can the Government take to overhaul car taxation in the upcoming budget?

The cost of living crisis has left British households with a legacy of higher prices – especially when it comes to energy bills. @adamscorer.bsky.social from @nea.org.uk spoke to us about how families are struggling to cope. Get the full conversation here ⤵️ buff.ly/epAqfRR

Borrowing would be £14 billion higher in 2029-30 as a result of u-turns and changes in the economy forecast. While smaller than the £20 billion expected by some, this is still a very large hit to the public finances.

This is not the time for half measures. @Alex__Clegg explains why the Government should fully repeal the two child limit on benefits, as part of their upcoming Child Poverty Strategy ⤵️

Two crucial reforms the Budget could make are to motoring taxes. Petrol and Fuel Duty are both historically cheap: permanently cancelling scheduled rises should not be a priority. Read our Budget Preview now➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp

Making unfair dismissal a ‘day one’ right would be a big change from the UK’s current two-year qualifying period. The Government should keep but *reduce* ‘qualifying periods’ for unfair dismissal protection ⤵️ buff.ly/WepH7zY

Excellent analysis of Mayfield Review from @benbgeiger.bsky.social & @louisemurphy.bsky.social @resolutionfoundation.org - Review has the right diagnosis & analysis of problem & drivers. - UK labour market isn't in crisis, but does have a long-running problem with disability inclusion. 1/n

Why should we switch 2p of tax from National Insurance to Income Tax? ⤵️ Income Tax raises more money and spreads the burden more fairly. The switch would raise £6 billion, and leave the vast majority of payslips unaffected.

📉 Calling all chart enthusiasts! 📢 The Resolution Foundation is hiring 👀 This is a rare opportunity to join our senior leadership team and take forward our work on productivity and growth. Applications close in two weeks! ⤵️ buff.ly/x40DZV1

What would a 'tax switch' of 2p from National Insurance Contributions to Income Tax mean for tax rates on different income sources? We've crunched the numbers. Read Top of the Charts to find out more 👉 buff.ly/qOWKDYR

How can the Government help families with high energy bills? Jonny Marshall explains why cutting VAT from bills would *not* be the best approach. Catch up on the full discussion to find out how the Government can cut costs for three-in-four households ⤵️ buff.ly/aA5q2H3

If they don't implement significant policy changes, this Government will preside over the sharpest increase in child poverty by any Labour Government in the last 60 years ⤵️ Read 'No half measures' 👉 buff.ly/04eBps0

Ruth Curtice explains why tax rises are needed (tl;dw: to avoid more expensive borrowing). This will need to be done carefully though, to avoid damaging growth, raising inflation or hitting households struggling most with the cost of living.

A deteriorating forecast means taxes are going up - but the Government must have a plan for this. It is possible to raise significant sums through a series of smaller reforms. A range of measures are consistent with improving the tax system in three key areas.

Why should we switch 2p of tax from National Insurance to Income Tax? ⤵️ Income Tax raises more money and spreads the burden more fairly. The switch would raise £6 billion, and leave the vast majority of payslips unaffected.

The Government is reportedly considering switching 2p from National Insurance to Income Tax. Here's why that would be a good idea ⤵️

What key steps can the Government take to overhaul car taxation in the upcoming budget?

🚨Event next week🚨 Successive governments have failed to grapple with Britain’s housing challenges, but can the Chancellor afford not to act decisively at this month's Budget? 🏠Register to join our discussion next Thursday⤵️ buff.ly/5SGqeU5

The upcoming Budget is a make-or-break moment for the Government. Read our preview of the key decisions facing the Chancellor now⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp

At our event yesterday, @MyStephanomics spoke about how the Government is doing better on the long-term stuff, than on the short-term. Catch up here 👉 buff.ly/eC4gWG3

Good news for the Government could come in the form of a faster wage growth forecast. Wage growth was extremely weak in March and could well be revised up despite the worse outlook for productivity. Read our Budget preview now➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp

Our latest anaylsis predicts a £14 billion deterioration in the public finances at the upcoming Budget ⤵️

Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...

📉 Calling all chart enthusiasts! 📢 The Resolution Foundation is hiring 👀 This is a rare opportunity to join our senior leadership team and take forward our work on productivity and growth. Applications close in two weeks! ⤵️ buff.ly/x40DZV1

The Government is reportedly drawing up plans to overhaul car taxation in the upcoming Budget. This is welcome and long overdue – transport taxes have failed to keep up with the switch from Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) to Electric Vehicles (EVs). 🧵 buff.ly/nGl374z

It's likely that the Government will need to find around £25 billion in tax rises at this month's Budget. Speaking this week, Chief Executive Ruth Curtice said the Chancellor faces important choices on who is affected by tax changes.

Brilliant report from centax and others out yesterday. With even small tax changes seemingly able to wreck political reputations, we have to hope some appetite remains for the really big reforms that could boost growth. share.google/H8VbJvxsT5GZ...

Headroom against the Chancellor's fiscal rules is more than wiped out based on expected forecast changes. This is a result of u-turns and changes to the economic outlook. Read more in our Budget Preview➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp

The Government could choose to make cuts to departmental spending to address the deterioration in the public finances. But with some departments, such as Defra, already facing significant real-terms per-person cuts, these would have to go even further.