We're delighted to have received the @smartthinking.bsky.social Innovation Award for our alternative estimate of UK employment. Huge congratulations to @adamcorlett.bsky.social, @hannahslaughter.bsky.social and everyone else who helped put this together 👏 buff.ly/uBRoQa2

Has the Budget rumour-mill gone too far? Excessive 'kite-flying' - leaking rumoured tax policies to test their reaction with the public - risks exacerbating market uncertainty.

The number of people aged 16-24 who are not in education, employment or training in Britain is now close to one million. RF Senior Economist @louisemurphy.bsky.social breaks down what we can do to help these young people back into work or study. Read the full report here: buff.ly/s3jjW8h

Two crucial reforms the Budget could make are to motoring taxes. Petrol and Fuel Duty are both historically cheap: permanently cancelling scheduled rises should not be a priority. Read our Budget Preview now➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp

What can we expect from the Budget? Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living @ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes buff.ly/drrsXC8

Excessive levels of Budget kite-flying risk exacerbating market uncertainty @ruthcurtice.bsky.social responds to latest rumours that the Chancellor is no longer planning to increase Income Tax rates in her upcoming Budget, following rumours last week that this would be the centrepiece of the Budget

With money tight going into the Budget, the Government must take the most cost-effective action it can to support living standards. On Child Poverty, this would be fully scrapping the two-child limit. Child poverty rates will be higher in 2029-30 than 2024-25 if the limit is not fully scrapped.

How can Government help families with high energy bills? Our research finds that bringing Government energy policies in-house could save the poorest households £110 a year ⤵️ buff.ly/4x4GNAa

It would currently take 11.6 years for a typical family to save for a typically sized deposit on their first home. This is very challenging, and why so many people turn to the Bank of Mum and Dad. But not everyone has access to that 'bank'.... Watch our event discussion now: buff.ly/7ipixlX

The upcoming Budget is a make-or-break moment for the Government. Read our preview of the key decisions facing the Chancellor now⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp

In 2024, the UK had the lowest taxes on an average employee of any G7 country. UK taxes for lower earners were also the lowest in the G7. But the UK's position might change in 2025. Read more 👉 buff.ly/4ppe7Q8

Repealing the two-child limit in full is the most powerful policy lever the Government can pull to drive down child poverty rates. Read 'No half measures' now ⤵️ buff.ly/qVc9CWs

Affordable housing stock has fallen drastically relative to population since the early 1980s ⤵️ buff.ly/pQXp2Sc

While esteemed colleagues won prestigious awards for great work last, I'm also proud to have won 2.5kg of smarties for best report title of the year, the best return on writing two words I'm ever likely to get www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Gains in wealth can be broken down into active (e.g. buying a home) and passive behaviours (e.g. rising property prices). Big passive wealth gains, driven by spiralling value of bricks and mortar, have done most of the work in recent years. ➡️ buff.ly/Hbpp38N

How can the Government help families with high energy bills? Jonny Marshall explains why cutting VAT from bills would *not* be the best approach. Catch up on the full discussion to find out how the Government can cut costs for three-in-four households ⤵️ buff.ly/aA5q2H3

At our event last week, @stephanomics.bsky.social spoke about how the Government is doing better on the long-term stuff, than on the short-term. Catch up here 👉 buff.ly/eC4gWG3

I'm proud to have received the innovation prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards – for my and my colleagues' work producing an alternative to Labour Force Survey stats www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...

Benefit claims among young people are rising - but almost half of NEETs don't claim out-of-work benefits. This lower-than-it-could-be welfare spending might seem like good news to some policy makers, but brings a policy dilemma - how can we reach NEETs who aren't engaged with the state?

How should the Chancellor approach property taxation in the upcoming Budget? Emily Williams from Savills UK says that tax issues should be settled either way to end uncertainty that is harming the market. Reforms should be used to improve the system, not just as a tool to raise more revenue.

Help to Buy has been a politically popular policy to support first-time buyers. Could it make a comeback in the upcoming Budget? Paul Cheshire hopes not - it simply fuels house prices. The only beneficiaries are those whose fortunes are linked to the share price of building companies.

Summary: - Homebuilding will help drive economic growth. But experts are sceptical that the 1.5m target. - Lower-income private renters face the greatest housing costs pressures due to freezing LHA. - Increasing Council Tax at the top bands could be a progressive change to a regressive tax.

Quarterly trade data out this morning. Goods exports were down 0.7% compared to Q2, with weak USA exports certainly contributing. In addition, services trade growth seems to have slowed, with growth of just 0.2%.

Kicking off our event, Hannah Aldridge says that the Chancellor has three key objectives in her sights this autumn: - Boosting growth - Bringing down the cost of living - Reducing public debt And housing has a role to play in all of these.... www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/findi...

🚨 Starting soon: Successive governments have failed to grapple with Britain’s housing challenges, but can the Chancellor afford not to grasp it? We'll be discussing how housing should feature in the Budget at 9.30am today Tune in here 👇 buff.ly/7ipixlX

Economic growth continued to slow in the third quarter of the year – down from 0.7 per cent in Q1, to 0.3 per cent in Q2 and to just 0.1 per cent in Q3.

Disappointing UK GDP this morning showing growth of just 0.1% in Q3, slightly below BoE and market expectations (0.2%). The good news for the Chancellor is this comes to late to be included in Budget forecasts - but this underlines the growth challenge we face. Thread to follow...

How old were you when you got your first job? The data shows that the age at which people are entering the labour market is going up, and up. Read 'False starts' now to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/kIei4lG

The value of Fuel Duty is now at historic lows, having fallen by 23p per litre (or a third) in real terms over the past decade. It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade. Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.

Young people are increasingly struggling to gain a foothold in the labour market. And the proportion of young people who are NEET and who have never had a paid job is higher still. Entering adulthood without any work experience limits opportunities to build skills, confidence & earnings potential.

The Government is reportedly considering switching 2p from National Insurance to Income Tax. Here's why that would be a good idea ⤵️

The 'affordability gap' between Local Housing Allowance rates and the 30th percentile of local rents is biggest in London. But every region of England is impacted. The affordability gap is now £170 a month in Salford; £144 a month in Hinckley and Bosworth; and £107 a month in Newcastle Upon Tyne.

How can Government help families with high energy bills? New research finds that bringing Government energy policies in-house could save the poorest households £110 a year ⤵️ buff.ly/4x4GNAa

Young people not in education, employment or training are more likely to have low qualifications than all young people, and these gaps widen with age. This widening divide underscores how low qualifications can trap young people, limiting their opportunities for stable, secure and well-paid work.

Borrowing would be £14 billion higher in 2029-30 as a result of U-turns and changes in the economy forecast. While smaller than the £20 billion expected by some, this is still a very large hit to the public finances.

Is AI stealing graduate's jobs? Currently, it is lower-qualified young people – not graduates – who are most likely to be not in employment, education, or training. Catch up on the full discussion 👉 buff.ly/AQmrtM0

Catherine Mann, an External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, spoke to the Resolution Foundation about the long-term scarring effect of the recent inflation spike. Catch up on her remarks in full here ⤵️https://buff.ly/rGlmKQx

Local Housing Allowance rates have been realigned to market rents in just two of the last 13 years. Current Government policy is for them to remain frozen . This risks a record 'affordability gap' opening between LHA rates and the 30th percentile of local rents. ➡️ buff.ly/gJR1hmO

When it comes to this morning's Universal Credits stats, context is key 🔑 @alexclegg.bsky.social explains what you need to know ⤵️

The latest labour market data suggest that pay growth is continuing to weaken. After adjusting for inflation, average weekly pay has grown by just £3 over the past 12 months.

🚨Don't forget to sign up for our event on Thursday🚨 Successive governments have failed to grapple with Britain’s housing challenges, but can the Chancellor afford not to act decisively at this month's Budget? 🏠Register to join ⤵️ buff.ly/5SGqeU5

Two crucial reforms the Budget could make are to motoring taxes. Petrol and Fuel Duty are both historically cheap: permanently cancelling scheduled rises should not be a priority. Read our Budget Preview now➡️ buff.ly/Y8cFfSW

The Government could choose to make cuts to departmental spending to address the deterioration in the public finances. But with some departments, such as Defra, already facing significant real-terms per-person cuts, these would have to go even further.

Ruth Curtice explains why tax rises are needed (tl;dw: to avoid more expensive borrowing). This will need to be done carefully though, to avoid damaging growth, raising inflation or hitting households struggling most with the cost of living.

Reports yesterday that the Government is considering scrapping the two-child limit on benefits in full. This would be a welcome step - fully repealing the two-child limit is by far the best way to ensure fewer children are growing up in poverty.

Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside). Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.

The latest stats suggest the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, as unemployment hits 5 per cent for the first time – outside of the pandemic – in almost a decade.

A surprisingly bad set of labour market stats this morning. The story I was prepared for was "some weakening, but the shake out from the early part of the year is behind us". But it's worse than that - payroll jobs falling again, unemployment now up at 5%. Here is our PN

The impact of lower qualifications follows young people long into adulthood. Barry Fletcher, CEO of Youth Futures Foundation, says the biggest gap is between those who do and don't have a GCSE. Catch up on the full discussion ➡️ buff.ly/AQmrtM0

Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income. The effective tax rate for a self-employed worker equivalent to the median employee in 2025-26 was the second lowest in 50 years, behind only 2024-25. buff.ly/4ppe7Q8