We're hosting events in April to unpack the effects of war in the Middle East on the UK economy. The first will focus on the coming cost of living crunch, with Jeremy Hunt MP, @kellyipsosuk.bsky.social @dharavyas.bsky.social @jonnymarshall.bsky.social @ruthcurtice.bsky.social ⤵️ buff.ly/srukFo5

The birth rate in the UK is falling. @charliemccurdy.bsky.social explains one important reason why that matters ⤵️

Not feeling ready is the most cited reason for not trying to have children, followed by not having a suitable partner. But financial constraints also play a role. Read more: buff.ly/1wohCc2

Poverty numbers have been revised down, but poverty hasn’t fallen. Head to our Substack, where @alexclegg.bsky.social explains what the DWP's data release last week does and doesn't tell us about poverty in the UK.

This year’s Universal Credit uplift means that the basic rate of unemployment benefits will go up by more than inflation for the first time since 1983. But the real-terms value of unemployment benefit is still 5% lower than in 2010-11. By contrast, State Pension rose by 20% over the same period.

A social tariff that provides discounted prices for low-income families is the best way to deliver targeted energy support this winter. We modelled several alternatives, but none were as effective at targeting low-income households with high energy bills as a social tariff (in green).

If energy bills spike this winter, how should the government respond? One option is to start planning now to introduce a social tariff 👇

Creating the Fair Work Agency is a welcome milestone; but other enforcement challenges remain. There will be no change to the scale of financial penalties, which are currently too low to be an effective deterrent. In fact, almost half of minimum wage cases are self-corrected so incur no penalty.

The budgets of the Fair Work Agency’s component bodies have been flat or falling in recent years. The announcement that FWA funding will be increased is welcome, and the Government should commit to keeping this under review to ensure it reflects what the agency needs to do its job effectively.

The launch of the Fair Work Agency represents a major overhaul of the labour market enforcement system. The FWA will reduce fragmentation in the UK’s labour market enforcement system, bringing together different enforcement agencies into a single organisation. Read more➡️ buff.ly/2cPqeAG

We're hosting events in April to unpack the effects of war in the Middle East on the UK economy. The first will focus on the coming cost of living crunch, with Jeremy Hunt MP, @kellyipsosuk.bsky.social @dharavyas.bsky.social @jonnymarshall.bsky.social @ruthcurtice.bsky.social ⤵️ buff.ly/srukFo5

The establishment of the Fair Work Agency is an important step towards better enforcement of employment rights. How can the Government ensure its success? ⤵️

Even as employment rights are becoming stronger, non-compliance with existing rights remains a concern. Hundreds of thousands of workers do not benefit from the basic rights they are owed. Read more about how the new Fair Work Agency can address this➡️ buff.ly/2cPqeAG

This year’s Universal Credit uplift means that the basic rate of unemployment benefits will go up by more than inflation for the first time since 1983. But the real-terms value of unemployment benefit is still 5% lower than in 2010-11. By contrast, State Pension rose by 20% over the same period.

Frozen tax thresholds will drag down on incomes more than they did last year, but less than they did in 2023-24 Read more about the personal finance changes the new tax year will bring in ⬇️ buff.ly/koap9Hx

Graduates who grew up in deep poverty still earn less than their peers ten years into their careers. @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social explains ⤵️

The number of births in people in the UK are having plummeted from 810,000 in 2012 to just 660,000 in 2024. @charliemccurdy.bsky.social breaks down the long-term trend, and why it matters 📽️

Today the Fair Work Agency was launched, bringing enforcement of several employment rights under one roof. This is a really welcome move, but its impact will depend on its resources and powers. A thread summarising the latest RF Labour Market Outlook: 🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Creating the Fair Work Agency is a welcome milestone; but other enforcement challenges remain. There will be no change to the scale of financial penalties, which are currently too low to be an effective deterrent. In fact, almost half of minimum wage cases are self-corrected so incur no penalty.

The budgets of the Fair Work Agency’s component bodies have been flat or falling in recent years. Today's announcement that FWA funding will be increased is welcome, and the Government should commit to keeping this under review to ensure it reflects what the agency needs to do its job effectively.

The launch of the Fair Work Agency represents a major overhaul of the labour market enforcement system. The FWA will reduce fragmentation in the UK’s labour market enforcement system, bringing together different enforcement agencies into a single organisation. Read more➡️ buff.ly/2cPqeAG

Even as employment rights are becoming stronger, non-compliance with existing rights remains a concern. Hundreds of thousands of workers do not benefit from the basic rights they are owed. Read more about how the new Fair Work Agency can address this➡️ buff.ly/2cPqeAG

Not feeling ready is the most cited reason for not trying to have children, followed by not having a suitable partner. But financial constraints also play a role. Read more: buff.ly/1wohCc2

Hundreds of thousands of workers do not benefit from the basic rights they are owed. The new Fair Work Agency can help tackle this. Read how 👉 buff.ly/2cPqeAG

🚨 New research out today New labour market enforcement body marks welcome milestone for employment rights but Government must give it more powers to protect all workers    Details here 👉 buff.ly/2cPqeAG ‎

Graduates who grew up in deep poverty face a large pay gap 10 years into their careers. They earn 13 per cent less than graduates who did not grow up in poverty – equivalent to over £7,590 a year ⤵️ buff.ly/5VfX2Fi

A social tariff that provides discounted prices for low-income families is the best way to deliver targeted energy support this winter. We modelled several alternatives, but none were as effective at targeting low-income households with high energy bills as a social tariff (in green).

The birth rate in the UK is falling. @charliemccurdy.bsky.social explains one important reason why that matters ⤵️

This year’s Universal Credit uplift means that the basic rate of unemployment benefits will go up by more than inflation for the first time since 1983. But the real-terms value of unemployment benefit is still 5% lower than in 2010-11. By contrast, State Pension rose by 20% over the same period.

Not feeling ready is the most cited reason for not trying to have children, followed by not having a suitable partner. But financial constraints also play a role. Read more: buff.ly/1wohCc2

This month marks a true milestone for the UK benefits system: the end of the thirteen-year rollout of Universal Credit that has brought together all means-tested working-age benefits. This moment is an opportunity to consider how the system can be improved ⤵️ buff.ly/TjrE4OW

When considering trends on fertility, we shouldn't lose sight of the couple perspective. Ann Berrington breaks down how men and women often provide different reasons for not feeling ready ⤵️

How should the government respond if current spikes in energy prices continue? A social tarriff can help to protect lower-income families with high energy use this winter. Full proposal here ⤵️ buff.ly/bDPVzLB

People still want kids, so why is the number of births at a 150-year low? In our latest Substack, @charliemccurdy.bsky.social looks at the material constraints that lie behind the recent British baby bust. Read it here 👉

New minimum wage rates came into effect this week. This will help to boost low-paid workers as the conflict in the Middle Easr pushes up cost of living pressures.

Child poverty isn't just bad, it resulst in an enduring earnings gap. This gap between graduates who grew up in poverty and those who didn't persists even for people who go to the same university, get the same degree and work for the same firm ⤵️ buff.ly/5VfX2Fi

New analysis has revealed a sharp rise in the number of non-graduate women in their late-20s delaying having children. Is that because their earnings are making up a greater share of their household's income? @pmarslanagic.bsky.social considers 👇

The new lower price cap came into effect this week This is good news for families, but the current war in the Middle East means this is likely to be short-lived.

As homeownership pulls increasingly out of reach for lower income households, Hannah Aldridge proposes a policy that could help first time buyers get a mortgage, without increasing house prices. Read more here ⤵️ buff.ly/gI9CpHu

Graduates who grew up in deep poverty still earn less than their peers ten years into their careers. @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social explains ⤵️

Insufficient savings for a deposit (not low income) is the most common constraint for potential first-time buyers. Even among the highest earners, onle one-in-four (26 per cent) have the savings required to put down a deposit for their first home.

Fertility trends don't just relate to women. @eirnolsoe.bsky.social wonders whether stagnating (or falling) real incomes for men have played a role in the declining birth rate ⤵️

Is Britain facing a baby bust? Our latest research assesses Britain’s falling birth rate since the early 2010s. Read more: buff.ly/1wohCc2

Since the 2008 financial crisis, mortgaged homeownership has fallen more rapidly among lower and middle income families. Between 2008 and 2023 mortgagors in the 2nd and 3rd quintiles of income decreased by more than three-times the fall in the 4th and 5th quintiles ⤵️ buff.ly/0OaFqsX

One-fifth of potential home buyers would need to save for at least a decade to have enough for a deposit. Read 'Credit where credit's due' here ⤵️ buff.ly/0OaFqsX

If energy bills spike this winter, how should the government respond? @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org argues they should start planning now to introduce a social tariff 👇

Child poverty is set to fall by 3 percentage points in 2026-27, primarily due to the two-child limit being abolished. But in the following years, the child poverty rate will start rising again. By the end of the decade, the projected rate is just 0.5 percentage points below last year.

2024 marked the second lowest number of births on record. The number of births in the UK was 660,000 in 2024, a record low second only to the 657,000 recorded in 2023. Read more on what is behind Britaian's recent baby bust: buff.ly/1wohCc2

Housebuilding in England’s largest cities is performing particularly poorly. We need to increase building in places where it can underpin future productivity growth, and where productivity is highest today. This means under-delivery in London and England’s ‘second cities’ needs to be addressed.

People still want kids, so why is the number of births at a 150-year low? In our latest Substack, @charliemccurdy.bsky.social looks at the material constraints that lie behind the recent British baby bust. Read it here 👉