Useful reminder from Peter Kellner on the problems we refuse to acknowledge are getting better, and the politics of hopelessness that this breeds open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...

UK CPI inflation was 3.8% in August, in line with market and BoE expectations. Below the top line there was some good news on underlying inflation but food price inflation accelerated to 5.1%, increasing pressure on struggling families. Short thread to follow...

This report, which I’ve worked on round the edges, is really interesting & contains some good news on both savings & credit card debt BUT sign up to find out why this hasn’t done much for the sense of economic security & some critical caveats, like energy arrears

Not too late to sign up for our event on low-to-middle income Britain's financial resilience (on tomorrow/Wednesday morning). www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/stron...

🚨 We're hiring for a Principal Economist 👀 This is a unique opportunity for an individual who can conduct economic and policy analysis independently at an advanced level. Full details here ⤵️ buff.ly/2mcx5aR

IT'S OUT! @ukandeu.bsky.social brand new survey of the policy challenges confronting the UK, done in partnership with the wonderful @resfoundation.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/poli... 1/???

A quick word on today's ONS household cost indices which are the key metric for inflation experience across different household groups. Key takeaway from this morning's data (to June) is that inflation for poorer families is once again picking up...

New workplace pension participation statistics were published this morning, revealing that certain groups remain at greater risk of heading into retirement with insufficient savings. Here’s what you need to know 🧵

Some heatwave weekend reading on why devolution needs to be talked about more in connection with the disability social security cuts. @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social blog w/ @safety-nets.bsky.social colleagues @haylesben.bsky.social @sionedps.bsky.social blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

The DWP published this year's stats on households impacted by the two-child limit today, which include some welcome new breakdowns on gender and ethnicity, receipt of health/disability benefits, conditionality group, and whether households are affected by the benefit cap. Quick thread/

20 years ago today, a bomb exploded on a bus at Tavistock Square. I was there. This is what happened:

The latest u-turn looks to be removing all PIP changes from the bill. Remaining net savings in the crucial year for fiscal rules of....about zero. Doesn't mean the bill is nothing though: still very important changes to, and a sensible rebalancing of, universal credit (with savings in future years)

Surprised & saddened to see this happen to Abrdn Financial Fairness Trust - they have supported vital work on debt, pensions, tax & much else. www.thetimes.com/article/7d69...

There’s a lot more than PIP cuts going on that risks being drowned out by that row Thread & mini-report by @resfoundation.bsky.social’s resident expert on many other changes, good & bad, that cry out for attention

I don't hear enough media reports being clear that the long-run system of disability & incapacity benefits will be the same after last week's concessions as was proposed in the Green Paper. All that has changed is whether existing recipients will lose out (they now won't).

Today. Join us at 10am.

How are the cost of essentials affecting low-to-middle-income families across Britain? On Monday, join our discussion with @claremoriarty.bsky.social @peterlevell.bsky.social and @lalithatry.bsky.social chaired by @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social Sign up here ➡️ buff.ly/3NYLh0r

Neither literally not metaphorically is the IFS an SW1 think-tank.

The dust is settling on the Spending Review, and my colleagues have been busy with the spreadsheets. You can read a summary of our thoughts here (www.linkedin.com/pulse/spendi...) or the full report here (www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...)

Oooooh nice spot!

Absolutely outrageous from Politico's evening email. Since when did we use US spelling? 😉

Want more SR analysis? Of course you do - see you tomorrow morning.

The Household Support Fund is now the 'Crisis and Resilience Fund' and will be funded at £1 bn/yr (incl. Barnett) until the end of 2028-29. The first multi-year funding will be very helpful for local authorities delivering the scheme as they can now plan, develop their approach, retain staff etc.

A Two Chairman joke!!!!!

Live tweet summary of SR 2025 below

Very sad to hear this. I worked quite a bit with Ghazala in the 2000s. This is a lovely obituary, and I liked this one sentence a lot: "Discreetness was a core personal value for Ghazala, one she upheld with grace and strength throughout her life" www.eeassoc.org/news/memoria...

Since the financial crisis, ever higher health spend has been funded by cutting other public services. Read 'At your service' now to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/RTk1uYz

The Migration Advisory Committee has reviewed the financial requirements for Brits & settled migrants to bring partners & children to the UK. They see the final decision as a political one govt must make, so didn't recommend any single threshold. Here's a short summary 🧵 www.gov.uk/government/p...

Thread on today's Winter Fuel Allowance decision.

Not too late to catch up on my health-and-mortality related reads, and a briefing on all things Polish, including the doughnuts/donuts.

This must be a new definition of "funded by".

Me on the child poverty strategy, now rumoured to be due this autumn.

Blog on the government's three big benefit battles. I fear the brutal maths means concessions on winter fuel mean less money for disability and child poverty. Looking at living standards trends across the piece - children would be the priority. www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...

With impeccable timing, given rumours in the Guardian of a softening of approach towards the two child limit, the New Statesman's policy Spotlight has a piece by me on why the Government will have to do something to stop child poverty rising. www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/po...

Me on child poverty (and super cool to be asked to do this by Gordon Brown, for whom I once wrote HMT papers about child poverty).

Our CEO on the winter fuel payment u-turn. Key point is not actually clear how they can do it cleanly. But at least the PM has given DWP a few months to work it out ...

Disappointing ONS data show CPI inflation jumped to 3.5% in April from 2.6% in March, a larger rise than BoE or market expectations. Thread on what is driving this and why this isn’t a return to peak cost-of-living pressures to follow…

Shout this, by @casmudde.bsky.social, from the rooftops. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The Government's announced shake up of disability & health-related benefits has been hugely controversial. But where are these reforms heading? @ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ Stephen Brien, @jwatsononeill.bsky.social Richard Clifton & @louisemurphy.bsky.social ➡️ buff.ly/dmZ7uDJ

I was lucky enough to be on the list for Wednesday's Education and Skills Garden Party at Buckingham Palace. Here's me and my daughter Catherine enjoying the sun (and, not shown here, the cakes).

The local elections have raised the profile of the proposed changes to disability benefits, and we'll be discussing those (and the longer-term ideas in the Pathways to Work Green Paper) on 20 May. Join us here www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/brita...

I've been in sunny (!) Edinburgh for 24 hours along with the rest of the @safety-nets.bsky.social crew. IMO there is more need than ever to recognise that we do not have a UK-wide social security system, nor do we have clean lines of devolution to nations or delegation to local authorities.

DWP last week put out more information on who might be affected by the PIP changes/cuts. Short thread below.

The Government wants families to save, so why is it penalising them for their savings ? Long-neglected capital rules in Universal Credit are beginning to create problems. Read the latest analysis, supported by @financialfairness.bsky.social ⬇️ buff.ly/f8Bs1lD

Now published on @voxeu.org‬ Newly available data from Britain’s tax authorities shows that pay volatility is the norm for British workers. Read the latest from @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social @tom-clark.bsky.social @nyecominetti.bsky.social @stephenpjenkin1.bsky.social ⬇️

British tax authority data show pay volatility is the norm. Bumps up and down in pay most heavily affect lower-wage workers, for whom they are harder to manage. @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social @tom-clark.bsky.social @nyecominetti.bsky.social @stephenpjenkin1.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Short piece out tonight on what tariffs mean for UK living standards (h/t @emilyfry.bsky.social & @gthwaites.bsky.social). Key point: tariffs hurt the economy and destroy good jobs outside London & SE, so expect a policy response. But big risk is this turns into a global recession.

The crisis for UK steel is exposing another – perhaps even bigger – crisis for the UK Our news media seems incapable of even the most basic factchecking YES energy for UK steelmakers is costly NO it's not due to net-zero YES it is due to GAS Here's what UK media isn't telling you🧵

Hurrah: write-up of my Ruggles Lecture (with @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social and @nyecominetti.bsky.social) now out in Review of Income and Wealth, Open Access at onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/.... ICYMI: our companion report at www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

If you are posting about migrants applying for visas, why would you use a stock photo of people arriving on small boats, clearly without visas? Come on guys. This is beneath you.