New spotlight from me covering what the latest inflation data means for benefit uprating out now. Here’s a quick summary:

New week, new job at Resolution Foundation? We have a vacancy at the top of our research team to plan and manage major strands of our research and policy output. In particular, they will develop and lead our work on growth and productivity, building on the Economy 2030 Inquiry.

Meant to read it when it came out. @chrisgiles.ft.com makes the case that costs are NOT spiralling, and UK welfare doesn't deserve its moral panic. on.ft.com/4hfE9kr

📢 New analysis! What is the OBR’s forecast for trend productivity growth, and why does it matter so much for the Budget? Find out more here ⤵️ buff.ly/KmJEg1Y

"The wealth tax debate shouldn’t be separate from the one about how we tax property and pensions – that’s where most of the country’s wealth sits."  c/o @resfoundation.bsky.social Bet it will continue to be, though. 🙄

Missed our recent Inequalities Seminar? @katymorris.bsky.social explores the effects of income misperceptions on inequality beliefs and preferences, comparing the local and national levels. Watch now ⬇️

My small contribution to today's great RF report on wealth inequality was to have us headline with the metric for measuring wealth gaps that I first came across in the work of the late John Hills www.theguardian.com/inequality/2...

Great column from @sarahoconnorft.ft.com where she casts her forensic eye over the introduction of collective bargaining in the social care sector. TL:DR it could work given adult care is a weird market largely paid for by local authorities; but as usual will there be enough cash? on.ft.com/4mSfeVm

There's good news and bad news on household incomes. While we've seen healthy income growth in the past 18 months, incomes have yet to recover from the cost of living crisis. ⬇️

Amid reports that MPs and an advisory taskforce will recommend scrapping the two-child limit on benefits, it's worth noting that this step would be the most targeted and cost-effective way for the Government to meet its aim of reducing child poverty ⤵️

Helpful and easy to read blog from ONS on their improvements to labour market stats. More of this kind of thing, please ! Couple of things to highlight blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/23/l...

Useful reminder from Peter Kellner on the problems we refuse to acknowledge are getting better, and the politics of hopelessness that this breeds open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...

UK CPI inflation was 3.8% in August, in line with market and BoE expectations. Below the top line there was some good news on underlying inflation but food price inflation accelerated to 5.1%, increasing pressure on struggling families. Short thread to follow...

This report, which I’ve worked on round the edges, is really interesting & contains some good news on both savings & credit card debt BUT sign up to find out why this hasn’t done much for the sense of economic security & some critical caveats, like energy arrears

Not too late to sign up for our event on low-to-middle income Britain's financial resilience (on tomorrow/Wednesday morning). www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/stron...

🚨 We're hiring for a Principal Economist 👀 This is a unique opportunity for an individual who can conduct economic and policy analysis independently at an advanced level. Full details here ⤵️ buff.ly/2mcx5aR

IT'S OUT! @ukandeu.bsky.social brand new survey of the policy challenges confronting the UK, done in partnership with the wonderful @resfoundation.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/poli... 1/???

A quick word on today's ONS household cost indices which are the key metric for inflation experience across different household groups. Key takeaway from this morning's data (to June) is that inflation for poorer families is once again picking up...

New workplace pension participation statistics were published this morning, revealing that certain groups remain at greater risk of heading into retirement with insufficient savings. Here’s what you need to know 🧵

Some heatwave weekend reading on why devolution needs to be talked about more in connection with the disability social security cuts. @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social blog w/ @safety-nets.bsky.social colleagues @haylesben.bsky.social @sionedps.bsky.social blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

The DWP published this year's stats on households impacted by the two-child limit today, which include some welcome new breakdowns on gender and ethnicity, receipt of health/disability benefits, conditionality group, and whether households are affected by the benefit cap. Quick thread/

20 years ago today, a bomb exploded on a bus at Tavistock Square. I was there. This is what happened:

The latest u-turn looks to be removing all PIP changes from the bill. Remaining net savings in the crucial year for fiscal rules of....about zero. Doesn't mean the bill is nothing though: still very important changes to, and a sensible rebalancing of, universal credit (with savings in future years)

Surprised & saddened to see this happen to Abrdn Financial Fairness Trust - they have supported vital work on debt, pensions, tax & much else. www.thetimes.com/article/7d69...

There’s a lot more than PIP cuts going on that risks being drowned out by that row Thread & mini-report by @resfoundation.bsky.social’s resident expert on many other changes, good & bad, that cry out for attention

I don't hear enough media reports being clear that the long-run system of disability & incapacity benefits will be the same after last week's concessions as was proposed in the Green Paper. All that has changed is whether existing recipients will lose out (they now won't).

Today. Join us at 10am.

How are the cost of essentials affecting low-to-middle-income families across Britain? On Monday, join our discussion with @claremoriarty.bsky.social @peterlevell.bsky.social and @lalithatry.bsky.social chaired by @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social Sign up here ➡️ buff.ly/3NYLh0r

Neither literally not metaphorically is the IFS an SW1 think-tank.

The dust is settling on the Spending Review, and my colleagues have been busy with the spreadsheets. You can read a summary of our thoughts here (www.linkedin.com/pulse/spendi...) or the full report here (www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...)

Oooooh nice spot!

Absolutely outrageous from Politico's evening email. Since when did we use US spelling? 😉

Want more SR analysis? Of course you do - see you tomorrow morning.

The Household Support Fund is now the 'Crisis and Resilience Fund' and will be funded at £1 bn/yr (incl. Barnett) until the end of 2028-29. The first multi-year funding will be very helpful for local authorities delivering the scheme as they can now plan, develop their approach, retain staff etc.

A Two Chairman joke!!!!!

Live tweet summary of SR 2025 below

Very sad to hear this. I worked quite a bit with Ghazala in the 2000s. This is a lovely obituary, and I liked this one sentence a lot: "Discreetness was a core personal value for Ghazala, one she upheld with grace and strength throughout her life" www.eeassoc.org/news/memoria...

Since the financial crisis, ever higher health spend has been funded by cutting other public services. Read 'At your service' now to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/RTk1uYz

The Migration Advisory Committee has reviewed the financial requirements for Brits & settled migrants to bring partners & children to the UK. They see the final decision as a political one govt must make, so didn't recommend any single threshold. Here's a short summary 🧵 www.gov.uk/government/p...

Thread on today's Winter Fuel Allowance decision.

Not too late to catch up on my health-and-mortality related reads, and a briefing on all things Polish, including the doughnuts/donuts.

This must be a new definition of "funded by".

Me on the child poverty strategy, now rumoured to be due this autumn.

Blog on the government's three big benefit battles. I fear the brutal maths means concessions on winter fuel mean less money for disability and child poverty. Looking at living standards trends across the piece - children would be the priority. www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...

With impeccable timing, given rumours in the Guardian of a softening of approach towards the two child limit, the New Statesman's policy Spotlight has a piece by me on why the Government will have to do something to stop child poverty rising. www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/po...

Me on child poverty (and super cool to be asked to do this by Gordon Brown, for whom I once wrote HMT papers about child poverty).

Our CEO on the winter fuel payment u-turn. Key point is not actually clear how they can do it cleanly. But at least the PM has given DWP a few months to work it out ...

Disappointing ONS data show CPI inflation jumped to 3.5% in April from 2.6% in March, a larger rise than BoE or market expectations. Thread on what is driving this and why this isn’t a return to peak cost-of-living pressures to follow…

Shout this, by @casmudde.bsky.social, from the rooftops. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The Government's announced shake up of disability & health-related benefits has been hugely controversial. But where are these reforms heading? @ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ Stephen Brien, @jwatsononeill.bsky.social Richard Clifton & @louisemurphy.bsky.social ➡️ buff.ly/dmZ7uDJ