Brilliant column by @sarahoconnor.ft.com on the Employment Rights Act:

V much enjoyed this. How Jane Austen revealed the economic basis of society economist.com/christmas-sp... from The Economist

It's midwinter's eve tonight. If you're quick about it, you can start your timed THE DARK IS RISING read-along before midnight. (tonight's portion is Chapter 1, 'Midwinter's Eve'. Tomorrow is 'Midwinter Day' and 'The Sign-Seeker'.)

Yesterday, over 60 of us fr @changingrealities.bsky.social came together in @10dowingstreet.bsky.social for a reception at which the PM & @darrenpjones.bsky.social thanked us for our efforts to push for action on child poverty. Together, we can make change happen. But this is just the beginning.

@nyecominetti.bsky.social piece from yesterday important context for today's labour market stats. ALL of the change in the employment rate since the pandemic is due to unemployment - a lack of jobs not a lack of jobseekers.

My parent’s local A&E doesn’t have pillows, time, beds, capacity. The GP doesn’t have emergency appointments for emergencies, services with capacity to refer people to. Caring like this about nomenclature and pronouns seems to me a luxury pursuit, frankly.

Updated child poverty forecasts reflecting latest forecast and child poverty strategy. Poverty set to fall through the Parliament - we estimate by a chunky 300k but by a less chunky 1%. That's because the number of kids in the population is also falling.

NEW ANALYSIS: Today the Government announced its new Child Poverty Strategy. But what might it mean for the outlook for child poverty in this Parliament, and how does it compare to progress on reducing child poverty in recent decades? New RF analysis answers these questions....

Potential for confusion today over child poverty numbers. Govt statements are not super clear on what is "this is what policies have done to child poverty compared with the counter-factual" and "this is how much lower child poverty will be by end of Parliament than it is now".

In non-Budget news, last week I appeared at the UK Covid Inquiry , talking about how well (or not) the economic interventions had been designed with inequality in mind. Here is a short write-up of my conclusions and recommendations. www.linkedin.com/pulse/econom...

Another one of those crazy Telegraph articles this weekend which, for some unknown reason, compares a healthy DINKY to a disabled single parent with three children.

And yet they've not managed to find the families of the half a million kids to be lifted out of poverty... 🤔

I'm in the FT! Fun fact that didn't make the cut. Scrooge lived somewhere near Cornhill so we reckon will, post mansion tax, pay 0.2% of the value of his property from that and CT combined. Tiny Tim rents in Camden in a band D property so will pay 0.4%.

Old style Twitter is back, baby.

"It will certainly take political courage to stick to these plans." @ruthcurtice.bsky.social has everything you need to know about the Budget, in two minutes ⏰ ⤵️

Live posting about the speech feels slightly unnecessary when all the details are out. But I'm a sucker for tradition nonetheless.

8 out of 11 but one was a silly mistake so I'm giving myself 8.5. (Btw this is what Chancellors do when they get OBR forecasts 🤣)

Quiz: How well do you know your Budgets? on.ft.com/3XAbkGa

It really is worth taking the time to hear from people like “Mary,” who fled from Zimbabwe 20 years ago, to understand what life is like when the law denies you the chance to call the country where you’ve made your life home

New spotlight from me covering what the latest inflation data means for benefit uprating out now. Here’s a quick summary:

New week, new job at Resolution Foundation? We have a vacancy at the top of our research team to plan and manage major strands of our research and policy output. In particular, they will develop and lead our work on growth and productivity, building on the Economy 2030 Inquiry.

Meant to read it when it came out. @chrisgiles.ft.com makes the case that costs are NOT spiralling, and UK welfare doesn't deserve its moral panic. on.ft.com/4hfE9kr

📢 New analysis! What is the OBR’s forecast for trend productivity growth, and why does it matter so much for the Budget? Find out more here ⤵️ buff.ly/KmJEg1Y

"The wealth tax debate shouldn’t be separate from the one about how we tax property and pensions – that’s where most of the country’s wealth sits."  c/o @resfoundation.bsky.social Bet it will continue to be, though. 🙄

Missed our recent Inequalities Seminar? @katymorris.bsky.social explores the effects of income misperceptions on inequality beliefs and preferences, comparing the local and national levels. Watch now ⬇️

My small contribution to today's great RF report on wealth inequality was to have us headline with the metric for measuring wealth gaps that I first came across in the work of the late John Hills www.theguardian.com/inequality/2...

Great column from @sarahoconnorft.ft.com where she casts her forensic eye over the introduction of collective bargaining in the social care sector. TL:DR it could work given adult care is a weird market largely paid for by local authorities; but as usual will there be enough cash? on.ft.com/4mSfeVm

There's good news and bad news on household incomes. While we've seen healthy income growth in the past 18 months, incomes have yet to recover from the cost of living crisis. ⬇️

Amid reports that MPs and an advisory taskforce will recommend scrapping the two-child limit on benefits, it's worth noting that this step would be the most targeted and cost-effective way for the Government to meet its aim of reducing child poverty ⤵️

Helpful and easy to read blog from ONS on their improvements to labour market stats. More of this kind of thing, please ! Couple of things to highlight blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/23/l...

Useful reminder from Peter Kellner on the problems we refuse to acknowledge are getting better, and the politics of hopelessness that this breeds open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...

UK CPI inflation was 3.8% in August, in line with market and BoE expectations. Below the top line there was some good news on underlying inflation but food price inflation accelerated to 5.1%, increasing pressure on struggling families. Short thread to follow...

This report, which I’ve worked on round the edges, is really interesting & contains some good news on both savings & credit card debt BUT sign up to find out why this hasn’t done much for the sense of economic security & some critical caveats, like energy arrears

Not too late to sign up for our event on low-to-middle income Britain's financial resilience (on tomorrow/Wednesday morning). www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/stron...

🚨 We're hiring for a Principal Economist 👀 This is a unique opportunity for an individual who can conduct economic and policy analysis independently at an advanced level. Full details here ⤵️ buff.ly/2mcx5aR

IT'S OUT! @ukandeu.bsky.social brand new survey of the policy challenges confronting the UK, done in partnership with the wonderful @resfoundation.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/poli... 1/???

A quick word on today's ONS household cost indices which are the key metric for inflation experience across different household groups. Key takeaway from this morning's data (to June) is that inflation for poorer families is once again picking up...

New workplace pension participation statistics were published this morning, revealing that certain groups remain at greater risk of heading into retirement with insufficient savings. Here’s what you need to know 🧵

Some heatwave weekend reading on why devolution needs to be talked about more in connection with the disability social security cuts. @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social blog w/ @safety-nets.bsky.social colleagues @haylesben.bsky.social @sionedps.bsky.social blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

The DWP published this year's stats on households impacted by the two-child limit today, which include some welcome new breakdowns on gender and ethnicity, receipt of health/disability benefits, conditionality group, and whether households are affected by the benefit cap. Quick thread/

20 years ago today, a bomb exploded on a bus at Tavistock Square. I was there. This is what happened:

The latest u-turn looks to be removing all PIP changes from the bill. Remaining net savings in the crucial year for fiscal rules of....about zero. Doesn't mean the bill is nothing though: still very important changes to, and a sensible rebalancing of, universal credit (with savings in future years)

Surprised & saddened to see this happen to Abrdn Financial Fairness Trust - they have supported vital work on debt, pensions, tax & much else. www.thetimes.com/article/7d69...

There’s a lot more than PIP cuts going on that risks being drowned out by that row Thread & mini-report by @resfoundation.bsky.social’s resident expert on many other changes, good & bad, that cry out for attention

I don't hear enough media reports being clear that the long-run system of disability & incapacity benefits will be the same after last week's concessions as was proposed in the Green Paper. All that has changed is whether existing recipients will lose out (they now won't).

Today. Join us at 10am.

How are the cost of essentials affecting low-to-middle-income families across Britain? On Monday, join our discussion with @claremoriarty.bsky.social @peterlevell.bsky.social and @lalithatry.bsky.social chaired by @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social Sign up here ➡️ buff.ly/3NYLh0r

Neither literally not metaphorically is the IFS an SW1 think-tank.

The dust is settling on the Spending Review, and my colleagues have been busy with the spreadsheets. You can read a summary of our thoughts here (www.linkedin.com/pulse/spendi...) or the full report here (www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...)

Oooooh nice spot!