Trying to cool down by reading The Worst Journey in The World, about the Scott antartic trip. Am on the 'winter journey' section where three of them walk for 5 weeks in complete darkness (other than occasional moonlight) in -60c temps. They climbed into *literally* frozen sleeping bags every night.

Named son Elis. I have red hair. On way to hospital realised i was opening him up to "Elis Ginge" should he follow me hair wise and should kids in the 2030s for some reason feel like making nicknames based on probably retired rugby players. In the end my hair genes proved themselves recessive ✌️

When did everyone agree babies (and parents) don't get articles in hospital? It's always how is baby, never how is the baby

Named the hotspot network on my phone NyeFi. Feeling real good about that.

If you need persuading of the importance of education funding / structures to UK's NEET problem, this chart was my best attempt at making that point. UK has *higher* % of YP in straight-employment than almost all OECD countries. But still manages higher NEET rates because ed participation so low

Missed this from Rishi Sunak on minimum wage & youth unemployment. He calls for 1. scrap LPC 2. freeze min wage 3. keep a gap between youth and adult rates. I agree with retaining a youth-adult gap. But on the others ... 1/ archive.is/202605242037...

I don't believe there was any such deliberate strategy. Govt ruled out main taxes, and lowering the threshold for employer NICs looks less tax rise-y than raising the rate. Big 2025 NLW increase was a data accident. Emp rights changes don't change agg costs that much (certainly haven't yet).

Footnote in Gillette add claiming 75% of 135 people said it gave them a smooth shave. Surely don't publish your stats if your results are that bad and/or you apparently put no resources into your survey

Just cycled through Finsbury Park. Consternation about the set piece reliance clear

Really valuable work published this morning from @peterhyman.bsky.social and Shaub Gamote. Started reading and am hooked. Gives the results of a huge listening exercise with young people, many NEET, who seem to have spoken very freely. onemillionfutures.substack.com/p/inside-the...

Helpful ONS article on where the emigrating Brits are going, making use of other countries' data. Striking increase in numbers heading to Australia www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Can't believe this is how it happens. A Tuesday night, a Bournemouth City game

Write up of this morning's labour market stats. 👇 Headline is probably that by March real wage growth had already fallen to roughly zero. The UK is quite able to deliver weak wage growth without the help of conflict in the middle east thank you very much

@juliadelldiniz.bsky.social has the charts 👇

Fascinated to see what unemp number we get tmrw morning. Didn't have speedy labour market recovery on my 2026 bingo card. Q about how far to update view on LFS reliability in face of surprising data. Had thought its unemp estimates usable so I think answer is 'a bit' i.e. it does have some signal.

The please give me your seat move is such a diss. A bit like when I was in a band and was asked to stand aside as the guitarist because my mate was better. (He was and I did).

A guy from our local corner shop just personally delivered an InPost parcel we'd forgotten about which was due to be sent back. That really is very nice, and probably not exactly what you'd imagine happening in Leyton which is in LONDON where everything is bad

WATO's opening line was "Put up or shut up, [PM under pressure etc]" and I thought that's quite punchy, where did it come from? BBC news now showing Chris Mason asking all the ministers leaving cabinet "Is it put up or shut up?" They all ignored him but I guess that's how a line comes into being

I have done all these jobs and they were all great

Eesh. Tough watch. (Pens all correct calls imo)

This is happening this afternoon, please come along if you're free.

Tomorrow (Wed) at RF we are hosting six (SIX!) employment and welfare experts from the @socialpolicyuk.bsky.social who will talk about books they have recently written. Like a glastonbury for employment policy research. In-person at RF, at 3. Please come! www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/work-and-w...

New report klaxon. We have published something on the UK's NEET problem (me + @alexclegg.bsky.social + @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social + Imogen + Lindsay). www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... Here is a thread with some of our findings.

We have written a report trying to diagnose the UK's NEET problem, event to discuss it with @jburnmurdoch.ft.com and others starting in 15 mins if you'd like to watch. I'll be showing some slides www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/close...

Re the Trump/RFK 600% reduction in prices thing - really think US can build a new bipartisan commitment to truth around the concept of arc-percentage change

A normal and sensible way to run benefits policy! So many examples of this in taxes and benefits (e.g. triple lock) where we seem unable to have principled arguments about the right level of things, so we just pursue weird uprating until people get unhappy / spending pressure grows

East to west on the Thames clipper has to be one of the better £6 you can spend in London

I don't watch golf, I just watched a golf video. Does this situation not ever lead to golf ball -> head problems?

My hot take is it would have been better if we'd won this game

Today the Fair Work Agency was launched, bringing enforcement of several employment rights under one roof. This is a really welcome move, but its impact will depend on its resources and powers. A thread summarising the latest RF Labour Market Outlook: 🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Hard to draw conclusions from 2025 about the (adult) min wage imo. Hiring slowdown + wage compression discourse convinced ppl min wage is too high, but I think the combo with NICs hike was just completely mad & unusual. In any case, policy is already cautious, has been 'hold steady' for a few years

A fun thing about kids learning to speak is when they don't know where words start and end. My son thinks the word is "helpme". As in, can you help me? Yes I can helpme

Today’s labour market stats were better than expected – headline unemployment didn’t rise thanks to a surprise Jan single month number, and payrolled jobs rose. Real wages are still growing (slowly), but war in the middle east clouds the outlook there. Thread from me and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social

I missed this: Govt published LPC's remit for the 2027 minimum wage rates on Monday (the rates coming in next month are already set). Main take-away is Govt wants a more cautious approach to the youth rates. It has dialed up the 'worry about employment' bit of the remit. www.gov.uk/government/p...

Useful to have an early labour market data point for Feb but why would you index to 95? 😅https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/09/britain-job-market-floundering-companies-cautious-hiring

OBR's lower net migration revision is *entirely* about more British people leaving, i.e. just follows ONS's updated estimates. (Even if you want the immigration number to go down, don't think anyone wants the emigration number to go up..?)

NEET estimates for Q4 2025 from ONS this morning. We already pretty much had the picture for Q4 from the main stats release last week (rising unemp) but let's run through the charts. And then zoom out. First - the number crept up ever so slightly. Importantly for comms the number remains below 1m.

Tomorrow the ONS will publish new data on the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET). This is important – and not just because the number is very close to one million…

New NEET data out tomorrow. I assume 1,000 think tank reports have used this song for a pun (maybe even an RF one) but it's now going round my head so here you go www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXKD...

Uphill in a bobsleigh, lots of work for those pushers

Fond of the UK's parochialism that it's Thames Valley police doing the arresting and not some uber crime agency. Similarly how in front of a packed Commons immediately before PM faces the opposition leader we see an MP ask something niche about their local area.

Life at the PDF mill is a hard, we need something to look forward to Robert

Speakers will include ... me! Looking forward to it. Do share with anyone you think might benefit from learning a bit about think tank world. We've been putting these events on for several years - they've always been well received. (Also by some distance our most-attended events).

Reminder for journos about the unemployment rate: the denominator isn't all people it's all people *working or looking for work*. A more accurate description of the youth unemployment rate would be "1 in 6 young people who want to work don't have a job". archive.is/202602180759...

First time at an all inclusive, decided the most otherwise-expensive thing available for free at the at bar was white vermouth so spent the evening drinking that. Maximised something but it wasn't utility

All contact lines are at all times receiving a high volume of calls at the moment

Fascinating & grim article on the collapse in S Korea's fertility rate. Cost of parenting seems part of the reason - the amount of tutoring going on is insane. Not sure why S Korea has reached this education competition equilibrium and other countries haven't. worksinprogress.co/issue/two-is...

Idle Q after 16 hours in a&e. Are we good at matching hospital resources to demand? This Chelsea hosp visit has been great, seen quickly, calm atmos, etc. Recent Whipps cross visit people looked close to death in hallways, went home in the end unseen. Is that place variation or time variation?

"City of culture, you'll never sing that" is very good from the Bradford fans (at Leyton)

Today’s labour market stats show a weakening jobs market, with rising unemployment and flatlining real pay. Some @resolutionfoundation.org key takeaways from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵 ...