Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA). What does the data tell us? ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.

Our updated child poverty projections following the publication of the Strategy show a significant fall next year and a decline over the whole Parliament. Still more to be done, but this is a good achievement in the face of significant headwinds and a tight fiscal position

This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one. The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent. But beneath the surface...

How has the Budget impacted living standards? The distributional impact of all tax/benefit changes since Autumn Budget 2024 is progressive:poorer households gain from 2-child limit repeal and UC boost, while richer households lose from threshold freezes and new property, dividend and savings taxes

Not well understood that 6 in 10 families impacted by the two-child limit are in work, and that the vast majority have 3 or 4 children.

Live posting about the speech feels slightly unnecessary when all the details are out. But I'm a sucker for tradition nonetheless.

Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation

Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy. OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty

Is runaway welfare spending to blame for the Chancellor's fiscal challenges? Hear from @alexclegg.bsky.social on why any claims that the Chancellor could avoid raising in the Budget could by cutting welfare should be scrutinised.

Inevitably, there are already arguments that the Chancellor should cut welfare spending instead of raising taxes tomorrow. But is welfare spending really 'out of control'? Here's the facts: www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/is-w...

New @resolutionfoundation.org @safety-nets.bsky.social report on the localisation of social security since 2013: Support delivered by local authorities isn't well understood but is an increasingly important part of the social security system: real spending on it is now 122 times higher than 2010-11

Unless DWP improves the clarity of its UC statistics by splitting out claimants who migrate from legacy benefits to UC vs those who make new claims, we're going to keep getting misleading headlines like this for the foreseeable future...

Local Housing Allowance rates have been realigned to market rents in just two of the last 13 years. Current Government policy is for them to remain frozen . This risks a record 'affordability gap' opening between LHA rates and the 30th percentile of local rents. ➡️ buff.ly/gJR1hmO

New Universal Credit statistics today show the % of claimants in the ‘no work requirements’ conditionality group has continued to rise to 49%, and the proportion in work has fallen to 33%. This is likely to be written up as ‘a rise in claimants not required to work’, but context is very important! 🧵

In 2010 I was in my friend's flat in Kentish Town and we suddenly heard that whistling song from Kill Bill REALLY loud in the street outside. We went to the window and looked down. Jonathan Ross was driving slowly down the street in a red convertible with leopard print seats smoking a cigar.

I spoke to the Guardian about the necessity of scrapping the two-child limit in full to get child poverty to fall over the Parliament, and how to go further (relink LHA to rents, lift the benefit cap) to achieve a sustained reduction www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...

It's disappointing to see the Government reportedly distancing themselves from a full repeal of the two-child limit 👉 buff.ly/bRVP16Z Here's why 🧵 ⤵️

This is not the time for half measures. @alexclegg.bsky.social explains why the Government should fully repeal the two child limit on benefits, as part of their upcoming Child Poverty Strategy ⤵️

New @resfoundation.bsky.social analysis: Any of the rumoured half-measure options for repealing the two-child limit would leave child poverty HIGHER at the end of the Parliament than it was when the Government took power. 🧵https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/no-half-measures/

The two child limit and benefit cap are "economically inefficient" because [they] "undermine public health, early years development and educational outcomes.... This in turn increases pressure on local services, including schools, health and housing." www.lbc.co.uk/article/grou...

New spotlight from me covering what the latest inflation data means for benefit uprating out now. Here’s a quick summary:

Very encouraging to read that the Government is preparing to lift the two-child limit as part of its child poverty strategy, but it is disheartening that options short of scrapping it entirely are still being considered. Thread on why this would be the wrong choice for an ambitious strategy:

Over the past two decades, the Resolution Foundation has worked to put living standards at the heart of political debates through its forensic research and hard-headed policy work. As we mark our 20th anniversary, we reflect on the past and future of living standards in Britain. 👉 buff.ly/NuhNFF9

ICYMI - new report out yesterday by me and Imogen Stone on how disabilities and caring affect low-to-middle income families, drawing on quant analysis and focus groups with disabled people and carers. Thread on key findings below 🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Tonight, Rachel Reeves delivers her Mansion House speech, and we expect she’ll announce the long-awaited review into pension adequacy (alongside other reforms such as financial deregulation).

The DWP published this year's stats on households impacted by the two-child limit today, which include some welcome new breakdowns on gender and ethnicity, receipt of health/disability benefits, conditionality group, and whether households are affected by the benefit cap. Quick thread/

Some more details this morning on the welfare bill concessions. Things we learn: 1) it is overall UC income that will be protected in real terms for existing recipients, so the UC-health element goes up somewhere between the original policy to freeze in cash terms and inflation.

The Household Support Fund is now the 'Crisis and Resilience Fund' and will be funded at £1 bn/yr (incl. Barnett) until the end of 2028-29. The first multi-year funding will be very helpful for local authorities delivering the scheme as they can now plan, develop their approach, retain staff etc.

Today the Government announced that Winter Fuel Payment eligibility will be extended to all pensioners with income below £35,000, with the payments to be restored from this winter. A quick thread on what this means and how it will work...

Potentially a good sign that the child poverty strategy isn't coming until the autumn. If the full strategy was announced in June it's unlikely it would have contained any additional benefit spending

Blog on the government's three big benefit battles. I fear the brutal maths means concessions on winter fuel mean less money for disability and child poverty. Looking at living standards trends across the piece - children would be the priority. www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...

Our new report on the Household Support Fund, part of the @safety-nets.bsky.social‬ project, is out today. It draws on analysis of HSF admin data and interviews with LAs and @changingrealities.bsky.social‬ participants to identify how the HSF can be improved in a long-term settlement /Thread

Raising the income thresholds for Winter Fuel Payment eligibility would be tricky to implement, as Ruth outlines. Last year we modelled extending eligibility to families claiming Housing Benefit or disability benefits, which would cost £300m and benefit 1.3 million families

After announcing multi-billion-pound cuts to health and disability benefits, the Chancellor said that "I am absolutely certain that our reforms, instead of pushing people into poverty, are going to get people into work." New @resfoundation.bsky.social work out today puts this to the test...

There has been speculation in recent weeks that the Government is considering measures that would reduce the impact of the two-child limit, but fall short of fully scrapping it. But none of these compromise measures represent an acceptable long-term solution. Read more: buff.ly/oiV5Re2

Today we’ve published research on rumoured options for easing the 2-child limit without fully scrapping it. In short, none of the options rumoured to be on the table is an acceptable solution and most would bring cliff edges or distortions into the system www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Really interesting report from @changingrealities.bsky.social on low-income parents navigating the complex system of childcare support. Getting this right feels key to the Government's work agenda, but the report also brings out the nuances of parents wanting to balance work with family life

On Friday afternoon, the Govt published the evidence pack for its Pathways to Work Green Paper. It confirms that the Govt's PIP cut will hit older people hardest, despite all the rhetoric about focusing on 'snowflake' young people. A quick thread...

Burying the lede...

The 2025 Spending Review is a crucial moment for the Govt. After decades of chronic under-investment, the Chancellor faces a tough choice: how to spend limited capital to fix Britain's frayed infrastructure and support future ambitions for growth.

Our new report on capital rules in the benefit system is out today. Read Molly's thread for the key findings.

🧵 1. The new official poverty stats came out at 930 Astonishingly bad numbers confirm the UK is in the grip of a building crisis of penury www.gov.uk/government/s...

2023-24 poverty stats out today. The data is noisy, but since 2020 we've had three years in a row of: • rising absolute poverty • rising food insecurity, now up to 7.5 million people • rising child relative poverty, now up to almost 4.5 million children, adding pressure to the Child Poverty Strategy

Good explainer from Tom on a reversal of a previously planned change that was scored as a £1.6bn giveaway by the OBR. We didn't include any positive impact on incomes from this in our overnight analysis.

Yesterday's Spring Statement and impact assessments for the Green Paper gave us more details on welfare changes that will mean significant income losses for more than 3 million families /🧵

What should we make of yesterday's 'Pathways to Work' Green Paper? A quick thread based on today's @resfoundation.bsky.social response, with @alexclegg.bsky.social and @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social ...

Here's our take on the health and disability green paper. It's a complex picture, but the main takeaway is that such large income losses for such a large group of vulnerable people are dangerous, and shouldn't have been rushed through to meet fiscal rules www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Really great job going @resfoundation.bsky.social for a housing policy expert! www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

The Health and Disability Green paper will deliver tiny income gains at the cost of major losses for those with health problems or a disability. Restricting PIP qualification to save £5bn would mean between 800,000 & 1.2 million people losing support of between £4,200 & £6,300 per year by 2029-30.