In case you missed it, modifying the two-child limit won't reduce poverty by the end of the parliament, but scrapping it will. The first thing any meaningful child poverty strategy needs to do is scrap the two-child limit.

New @resfoundation.bsky.social analysis: Any of the rumoured half-measure options for repealing the two-child limit would leave child poverty HIGHER at the end of the Parliament than it was when the Government took power. 🧵https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/no-half-measures/

Real incomes for lower-income households have likely fallen this year, but a 6.2% rise in UC standard allowances next April should contribute to better news in 2026-27

New spotlight from me covering what the latest inflation data means for benefit uprating out now. Here’s a quick summary:

Today’s data show that a weakening jobs market is feeding through into pay. Depressing stat of the day: real weekly wages have increased by just £1.50 since Sep 2024. Here is our thread (from me and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social).

Very encouraging to read that the Government is preparing to lift the two-child limit as part of its child poverty strategy, but it is disheartening that options short of scrapping it entirely are still being considered. Thread on why this would be the wrong choice for an ambitious strategy:

Good news that the Govt will offer more support to young people who are out of work. But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...

Amid reports that MPs and an advisory taskforce will recommend scrapping the two-child limit on benefits, it's worth noting that this step would be the most targeted and cost-effective way for the Government to meet its aim of reducing child poverty ⤵️

Some new ONS data came out on spending yesterday, covering the financial year 2023-24. What happened to spending that year, and can we trust the data? Quick thread:

Council Tax arrears in England have risen by almost a half since before the pandemic. Arrears continued to rise during the cost of living crisis - with £445 million added to England’s stock of arrears between 2023-24 and 2024-25. That's much greater than the rise seen after the financial crisis.

We're hiring for *three* roles in the RF research team, at a range of levels from entry to experienced. Deadline for all three is 19th September. More details in the link below 👇

Here's some info on today's inflation release from James and me. What is particularly concerning from this data is that last month, food inflation rose to almost 5% - which is especially bad for low-income households, who spend a high proportion of their total spending on food.

Rising energy prices have led to lower-income families having their finances squeezed as more of their budgets are spent on essentials. @lalithatry.bsky.social of @resfoundation.bsky.social shares findings from a recent report on the cost of essentials 👇 resolvepoverty.org/the-bare-necessities/

Surprise ONS inflation data today, showing that CPI inflation rose to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.2ppts higher than forecast by the BoE. Here's a thread on what is driving this:

Expectations vs reality

New research out from @simonpittaway.bsky.social and me looking at the cost of essentials in Britain. We dig into the rising weight of essentials in family budgets, what that means for life on low incomes, and what the Government should do about it. 🧵

There’s long been a serious squeeze on the lowest disposable incomes In the last 5 years the rising cost of essentials & associated slanted inflation have added a nasty twist Enjoyed helping out on this important report from @lalithatry.bsky.social & @simonpittaway.bsky.social

Really excited to publish a new report from me and @simonpittaway.bsky.social on Monday, all about the cost of essentials and policies that would help low-income families afford them. The event should be a very interesting watch!

Thanks for the reminder @janemunday.bsky.social. Every summer, I repost this article DROWNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE DROWNING. To date, I know of FOUR kids who were saved after someone who'd clicked on the link learnt how to spot actual drowning. Take time to read and pass on. slate.com/technology/2...

The Household Support Fund is now the 'Crisis and Resilience Fund' and will be funded at £1 bn/yr (incl. Barnett) until the end of 2028-29. The first multi-year funding will be very helpful for local authorities delivering the scheme as they can now plan, develop their approach, retain staff etc.

Today we’ve published research on rumoured options for easing the 2-child limit without fully scrapping it. In short, none of the options rumoured to be on the table is an acceptable solution and most would bring cliff edges or distortions into the system www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Welcome downside surprise in UK inflation this morning as CPI falls to 2.6% in March (from 2.8% in February). Next month we'll get a big jump up in inflation and where it goes after that will depend to a large extent on tariffs. A thread on all that to follow...

New @resfoundation.bsky.social briefing out from me and @adamcorlett.bsky.social today on the impact of tax, benefit and household bill changes happening this month on household incomes! Here's a quick 🧵on the key findings: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

2023-24 poverty stats out today. The data is noisy, but since 2020 we've had three years in a row of: • rising absolute poverty • rising food insecurity, now up to 7.5 million people • rising child relative poverty, now up to almost 4.5 million children, adding pressure to the Child Poverty Strategy

Our @resfoundation.bsky.social overnight response document is out now! Spoilers: the outlook's looking pretty dire for low-to-middle income households, especially households with a disabled person in www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

No tax rises are expected in the Spring Statement. An under-appreciated reason for that is simply a new principle of only changing tax policy once per year (rightly or wrongly). But there are still tax options available for Autumn and beyond, if needed... 🧵

But the risk is that some of these positive changes to the system are over-shadowed by the big cuts to PIP and UC-health. Overall, we estimate that low-to-middle income households are set to be worse off in 2029-30 as a result of these changes.

We're hiring @resfoundation.bsky.social Find out more and apply to join us 👀 www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

A lot in today's health and disability #pathwaystowork Green Paper. Might be helpful to see this in four areas: 1. Big savings (aka cuts) by removing PIP from some disabled people (those who never score 4+ on a single daily living descriptor). Number of losers unclear from today's materials. 1/4

New @lseinequalities.bsky.social blog from me and @tom-clark.bsky.social on how regressive Council Tax is, and how Council Tax costs are likely get even worse over time

This morning the justice secretary pointed to a “huge rise in the welfare budget” as justification for targeting benefit spending to make fiscal savings. So how big has the rise in welfare spending been?

Want to work in a thinktank? But worried it's only for "usual suspects"? Think again -- and sign up for webinar--this Weds 330-6pm--from @resfoundation.bsky.social & loads of other top tanks all looking for hidden talent www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/worki...

🚨New research published today🚨 An ambitious strategy could support around 900,00 children out of poverty - and inaction could leave the Government with an embarrassing record of rising child poverty write @adamcorlett.bsky.social and @alexclegg.bsky.social Read now➡️ https://buff.ly/4biQa5z

📢 Are you or someone you know considering a career in the think tank sector? We're hosting an online webinar for those interested in the sector, aimed particularly at those from under-represented groups. Find out more and sign up here👇 https://buff.ly/3CYMwky

New year, new inflation – CPI picks up to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, above BoE and market forecasts. Thread on what is driving this rise – and where this new bout of inflation is headed – to follow…

New blog from me and Tom on how Council Tax is increasingly resembling the Poll Tax ⬇️

New @resfoundation.bsky.social report out from me today, on how low-to-middle income households’ earnings, benefits, taxes and housing costs have changed over the last 30 years. Here are some of the key findings:

Why do ethnic minorities in the UK live in households that spend so much more income on housing than White British adults? Turns out the answer is complex. Our latest report, released today, dives into the root causes. Let’s explore the key insights👇🏾

🚨New research🚨 @camronaref.bsky.social & @feliciao.bsky.social find that ethnic minorities spend more on housing than White British households - but get less in return. Read now ➡️ https://buff.ly/3ErK9Y4

Have you ever wondered or been curious about how housing, ethnicity & affordability are linked in the UK? we have - so we investigated it. Our findings will be published in a report out tomorrow! Feel free to join our event tomorrow at 10am!👇🏿

When comparing incomes across countries, we adjust for the local price of all goods and services (known as purchasing power parity, or PPP). But when comparing the incomes of poorer households, shouldn’t we focus on the price of things that matter most to them?🧵

Fascinating report out today from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and @louisemurphy.bsky.social on low-to-middle income families' experience of work - many more people in these families are employed than they were in the 90s, but there's still big improvements to be made to their experience of work.

As well as tracking average household income, the Government must make sure that poorer households in particular see living standards growth. Our latest projections (pre-Budget) were not good, but Government policy can make a big, direct difference here.

Big news that the Scottish Government has decided to abolish the two-child limit on benefit support from 2026 onwards. As RF has shown many times, this is the biggest lever policymakers could pull to reduce child poverty with immediate effect. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Disappointing inflation data this morning: CPI was 2.3% in October, up from 1.7% in September - a bigger increase than either the BoE or markets had expected. This came with news that underlying inflation also ticked up. Short thread to follow...

New report out today from us at @resfoundation.bsky.social launching the Unsung Britain project, a 12 month project investigating the economic circumstances of low-to-middle income families. Here's some of the findings from the report:

🚨 New report published today 🚨 'Unsung Britain' looks at the changing economic circumstances of the poorer half of Britain and is the first report of a major new 12-month project, with support from JPMorganChase. Read this first report here ⤵️ https://buff.ly/4hCO0kd ‎

Hello and welcome to all our new followers 👋 To ensure you're getting all the best analysis and insights, we've made a starter pack of all our staff on Bluesky. Make sure to give them a follow too ⤵️ go.bsky.app/5Anuz76

Hello new Bluesky followers! @resfoundation.bsky.social will be launching a new project tomorrow on the economic circumstances of Britain's poorer half, with Matthew Pennycook, Polly Toynbee, Abigail McKnight, @gavin-kelly.bsky.social and me on the panel www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/unsun...

We’ve seen large increases in childcare provision and funding from the government over recent years, aimed at getting parents into work. But my @resfoundation.bsky.social report out today looks at childcare for parents in education – where there are major gaps in support: