V interesting new substack post from Jamie, on how ethnic income inequalities for people in their 20s have (mostly) reduced over time

Happy new tax year to all who celebrate! Here's a quick 🧵on the tax and benefit changes coming in this month in the context of rising energy bills. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Hummus and non-alcoholic beer have been added to the CPI basket... presumably driven by Resolution Foundation staff's consumption... www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...

Unanimous in the face of uncertainty. Yesterday's Bank of England decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% was the first unanimous vote by the 9-strong Monetary Policy Committee in over 4 years.

Efforts to deliver a new social tariff for energy bills should start now to help vulnerable families this winter. Read our latest analysis ⤵️ buff.ly/bDPVzLB

In her speech yesterday, the Chancellor said the question people will be asking themselves at the next election is "are me and my family better off?" So what is the answer likely to be? 🧵

Made my grand return to our inflation data response today after a couple of months of being busy working on our Unsung Britain book - here's the thread from James with everything you need to know!

Unsung Britain has faced crushing costs in recent years. @lalithatry.bsky.social explains why inflation has not been experienced evenly across the income distribution 👇

Today we at @resolutionfoundation.org have published Unsung Britain, a book about the 13 million working-age families in the poorer half of Britain.

Big day tomorrow! Tune in to our conference tomorrow, and check out the book!

Chart of the week gives you a sneak peak into 'Unsung Britain' – a new book we're publishing on Tuesday. It shows that in the six years leading to last autumn, annualised inflation experienced by the poorest families ran at a rate that was 0.7 percentage points faster than for the richest families

🧵 New research on decarbonising UK farms and what it means for living standards. The good news is decarbonisation should be manageable and won't cost the world - but it'll still be hard, as farming's in a fragile situation. Here's what we found 👇 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

We're almost a week away from the biggest event of the year: The @resolutionfoundation.org Unsung Britain conference, where we'll be telling you all about the book we're launching on the 13 million working-age families across the poorest half of the country. Be there or be 🟦. Sign up here:

Pay cheque: a word multiple people spent 10 minutes working out how to spell in the office the other week

I'd been waiting for this day for years and now it's finally arrived!

The Government’s Child Poverty Strategy published today is the first we’ve seen for 11 years – which in itself is a sea change. 🧵 👇

The Government's Child Poverty Strategy begins to turn the tide on child poverty. As a result, child poverty rates will fall next year – the first time in nine years (outside the pandemic). But other child poverty headwinds remain. Read our full statement 👇 buff.ly/Tnqasir

In case you missed it, modifying the two-child limit won't reduce poverty by the end of the parliament, but scrapping it will. The first thing any meaningful child poverty strategy needs to do is scrap the two-child limit.

New @resfoundation.bsky.social analysis: Any of the rumoured half-measure options for repealing the two-child limit would leave child poverty HIGHER at the end of the Parliament than it was when the Government took power. 🧵https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/no-half-measures/

Real incomes for lower-income households have likely fallen this year, but a 6.2% rise in UC standard allowances next April should contribute to better news in 2026-27

New spotlight from me covering what the latest inflation data means for benefit uprating out now. Here’s a quick summary:

Today’s data show that a weakening jobs market is feeding through into pay. Depressing stat of the day: real weekly wages have increased by just £1.50 since Sep 2024. Here is our thread (from me and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social).

Very encouraging to read that the Government is preparing to lift the two-child limit as part of its child poverty strategy, but it is disheartening that options short of scrapping it entirely are still being considered. Thread on why this would be the wrong choice for an ambitious strategy:

Good news that the Govt will offer more support to young people who are out of work. But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...

Amid reports that MPs and an advisory taskforce will recommend scrapping the two-child limit on benefits, it's worth noting that this step would be the most targeted and cost-effective way for the Government to meet its aim of reducing child poverty ⤵️

Some new ONS data came out on spending yesterday, covering the financial year 2023-24. What happened to spending that year, and can we trust the data? Quick thread:

Council Tax arrears in England have risen by almost a half since before the pandemic. Arrears continued to rise during the cost of living crisis - with £445 million added to England’s stock of arrears between 2023-24 and 2024-25. That's much greater than the rise seen after the financial crisis.

We're hiring for *three* roles in the RF research team, at a range of levels from entry to experienced. Deadline for all three is 19th September. More details in the link below 👇

Here's some info on today's inflation release from James and me. What is particularly concerning from this data is that last month, food inflation rose to almost 5% - which is especially bad for low-income households, who spend a high proportion of their total spending on food.

Rising energy prices have led to lower-income families having their finances squeezed as more of their budgets are spent on essentials. @lalithatry.bsky.social of @resfoundation.bsky.social shares findings from a recent report on the cost of essentials 👇 resolvepoverty.org/the-bare-necessities/

Surprise ONS inflation data today, showing that CPI inflation rose to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.2ppts higher than forecast by the BoE. Here's a thread on what is driving this:

Expectations vs reality

New research out from @simonpittaway.bsky.social and me looking at the cost of essentials in Britain. We dig into the rising weight of essentials in family budgets, what that means for life on low incomes, and what the Government should do about it. 🧵

There’s long been a serious squeeze on the lowest disposable incomes In the last 5 years the rising cost of essentials & associated slanted inflation have added a nasty twist Enjoyed helping out on this important report from @lalithatry.bsky.social & @simonpittaway.bsky.social

Really excited to publish a new report from me and @simonpittaway.bsky.social on Monday, all about the cost of essentials and policies that would help low-income families afford them. The event should be a very interesting watch!

Thanks for the reminder @janemunday.bsky.social. Every summer, I repost this article DROWNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE DROWNING. To date, I know of FOUR kids who were saved after someone who'd clicked on the link learnt how to spot actual drowning. Take time to read and pass on. slate.com/technology/2...

The Household Support Fund is now the 'Crisis and Resilience Fund' and will be funded at £1 bn/yr (incl. Barnett) until the end of 2028-29. The first multi-year funding will be very helpful for local authorities delivering the scheme as they can now plan, develop their approach, retain staff etc.

Today we’ve published research on rumoured options for easing the 2-child limit without fully scrapping it. In short, none of the options rumoured to be on the table is an acceptable solution and most would bring cliff edges or distortions into the system www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Welcome downside surprise in UK inflation this morning as CPI falls to 2.6% in March (from 2.8% in February). Next month we'll get a big jump up in inflation and where it goes after that will depend to a large extent on tariffs. A thread on all that to follow...

New @resfoundation.bsky.social briefing out from me and @adamcorlett.bsky.social today on the impact of tax, benefit and household bill changes happening this month on household incomes! Here's a quick 🧵on the key findings: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

2023-24 poverty stats out today. The data is noisy, but since 2020 we've had three years in a row of: • rising absolute poverty • rising food insecurity, now up to 7.5 million people • rising child relative poverty, now up to almost 4.5 million children, adding pressure to the Child Poverty Strategy

Our @resfoundation.bsky.social overnight response document is out now! Spoilers: the outlook's looking pretty dire for low-to-middle income households, especially households with a disabled person in www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

No tax rises are expected in the Spring Statement. An under-appreciated reason for that is simply a new principle of only changing tax policy once per year (rightly or wrongly). But there are still tax options available for Autumn and beyond, if needed... 🧵

But the risk is that some of these positive changes to the system are over-shadowed by the big cuts to PIP and UC-health. Overall, we estimate that low-to-middle income households are set to be worse off in 2029-30 as a result of these changes.

We're hiring @resfoundation.bsky.social Find out more and apply to join us 👀 www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

A lot in today's health and disability #pathwaystowork Green Paper. Might be helpful to see this in four areas: 1. Big savings (aka cuts) by removing PIP from some disabled people (those who never score 4+ on a single daily living descriptor). Number of losers unclear from today's materials. 1/4

New @lseinequalities.bsky.social blog from me and @tom-clark.bsky.social on how regressive Council Tax is, and how Council Tax costs are likely get even worse over time

This morning the justice secretary pointed to a “huge rise in the welfare budget” as justification for targeting benefit spending to make fiscal savings. So how big has the rise in welfare spending been?

Want to work in a thinktank? But worried it's only for "usual suspects"? Think again -- and sign up for webinar--this Weds 330-6pm--from @resfoundation.bsky.social & loads of other top tanks all looking for hidden talent www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/worki...

🚨New research published today🚨 An ambitious strategy could support around 900,00 children out of poverty - and inaction could leave the Government with an embarrassing record of rising child poverty write @adamcorlett.bsky.social and @alexclegg.bsky.social Read now➡️ https://buff.ly/4biQa5z