🚨 Vacancies alert! We're currently hiring for three new roles. Applications for all three will close on September 19th. See details and how to apply here 👉 buff.ly/EjyZen5

Personal update: I'm joining the Bank of England for six months - stepping away from my Resolution Foundation desk. I will be tweeting a bit less while I’m heads-down on policy work, but will see you on the other side!

Chart-heavy thread incoming. This is an attempt to survey the research to answer the question - were the forecasts predicting a lot of Brexit damage correct? 1/n.

Pay varies hugely across England: in 2024 weekly pay was just £610 in Liskeard to £1,130 in London. Is this because high‑earning areas attract inherently higher‑earning people, or because the jobs located there pay more to any worker? Our new @resfoundation.bsky.social report finds out.

🚨 New research published today Our latest report by Richmond Egyei @emilyfry.bsky.social‬ ‪‪@tasoskitsos.bsky.social‬ @gthwaites.bsky.social @dalilariba.bsky.social‬ & Enrico Vanino looks at the impact of place in regional inequality. Read more ⬇️ buff.ly/ycjN6KI

There's a really nice @productivity.bsky.social episode here on why trade is great for productivity, with @bartvanark.bsky.social interviewing @emilyfry.bsky.social and others Here's the Pocket Casts link pca.st/episode/ddfe...

Yesterday’s US GDP release showed how businesses can quickly respond to tariff threats. Real US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, dragged down by a surge in imports and inventories. The headline number is tricky to interpret, but it raises a question: is the UK part of this import surge?

Short piece out tonight on what tariffs mean for UK living standards (h/t @emilyfry.bsky.social & @gthwaites.bsky.social). Key point: tariffs hurt the economy and destroy good jobs outside London & SE, so expect a policy response. But big risk is this turns into a global recession.

There has been a lot of focus on the UK's direct export exposure to the US, but this chart is the one that worries me. In 2019, $24bn worth of UK motor vehicle value added ended up in the US via supply chains. That’s 22% of ALL Britain’s motor vehicle output.

I spoke to More or Less about Trump's tariff formula www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

🚨New today - @resfoundation.bsky.social latest research on who benefits from public services - and what it means for the Spending Review. 👇

The rare good-ish news story on the British economy—why Britain is surprisingly well-insulated from a tariff crash, at least compared to most of its peers: Part, but not all of the answer is in quite how much (un-tariffed) services dominate British exports. Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...

🚨Event tomorrow🚨 Public services are vital for families – providing ‘in kind’ benefits which provide a huge boost to the living standards of lower-income households. Sign-up for our event tomorrow to discuss future provision ➡️ buff.ly/OVqX64M

What should the government prioritise in the Spending Review? @camronaref.bsky.social, @zackleather.bsky.social & I built a distributional model of public services to help answer that. It's nerdy but also important. And we're discussing tomorrow 👇 www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi...

We have an excellent event tomorrow morning on how the Government can turnaround its economic policy at the Spending Review with David Gauke and Sandra McNally: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi.... Will feature new work on who benefits from public services by @emilyfry.bsky.social.

With Trump's new tariffs coming into effect, how should the UK respond? In their piece from February, @emilyfry.bsky.social and @gthwaites.bsky.social suggested we should be cautious about retaliating. Read more➡️ buff.ly/9Z9LRmK

Brilliant rapid analysis of new US tariffs

Should the UK retaliate if Trump imposes tariffs? Economic case for retaliation is weak, but the political case is harder to judge. Hinges on whether you think retaliating creates leverage for future negotiations Overall, a tough decision and I could see it going either way

Today might be the day Donald Trump slaps tariffs on UK goods — because he thinks VAT is a tariff. Yes, he's wrong. But the reason *why* he's wrong is fun. So here's a 🧵 on the nerdy detail of VAT: via Jaffa Cakes and an economic theorem from 1936. buff.ly/6Lms19H

Key chart for Britain as we head into a tariff-ying April.

Delayed UK trade data for Jan out today from ONS reports strong monthly growth in UK exports: goods +6.3% & services +1.9%. But, the bigger news is an upward revision to trade in 2023 & 2024: services exports were revised +7.3% (£34.3bn) in 2024, and services imports +5.7% (£17.1bn).

The big-picture outlook for living standards remains grim after the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. It’s particularly dismal for the poorer half of Britain, who are set to become £500 a year poorer over the Parliament. Here’s what you need to know 🧵 ⤵️ buff.ly/5CHyJII

The most extreme examples are couples on UC where one is disabled and the other cares for them. If the disabled member loses PIP eligibility, the other would lose the UC carer element and they would also likely lose from the UC health cut. The loss could total £10,300 by 2029-30 (current prices)

A couple of striking charts from our spending response to the Chancellor's Spring Statement yesterday. 1) Despite it being billed as a spending consolidation, real terms spending will be +£1.1 billion higher over the years of the 2025 Spending Review than it was expected to be in the Autumn Budget.

Great explainer from @benchu.bsky.social on whether to expect austerity tomorrow

What should we make of yesterday's 'Pathways to Work' Green Paper? A quick thread based on today's @resfoundation.bsky.social response, with @alexclegg.bsky.social and @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social ...

We're hiring @resfoundation.bsky.social Find out more and apply to join us 👀 www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

Good news for me: no 7am release tomorrow. Bad news for services trade data: no 7am release tomorrow.

Trump has increased steel & aluminium tariffs from 10% to 25% today, affecting UK exports. Some key points for British policy-makers to keep in mind…👇

The coming Spending Review is moment of extraordinary political peril Starmer's "less aid for more army" pivot is an attempt to dodge domestic cuts which would cause him more pain But—absent big moves on tax—such cuts may come soon anyway www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/693...

New report: The Government has promised "an ambitious strategy to reduce child poverty", due in Spring, but what will it take to achieve a meaningful reduction? www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... (1/n)

The PM's claim that taking UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 will incease spending by £13.4bn a year is somewhat puzzling...

Excited to see what is in store from John's new substack!

The UK economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2024 on the back of an unexpectedly strong December. But yet another fall in GDP per capita underlines our ongoing living standards squeeze. A thread on the key takeaways from today’s data.🧵

2024 FULL YEAR UK TRADE DATA from ONS is out today Goods exports fell 5.1% 2023-2024, while imports declined 0.5%, reflecting weakness in manufacturing In contrast, services exports rose 3.4% Y-o-Y & services imports grew 3.3%, reflecting robust services output A thread...

What does the UK buy from the US: oil and gas. What does the UK sell to the US: chemicals and cars.

Why do ethnic minorities in the UK live in households that spend so much more income on housing than White British adults? Turns out the answer is complex. Our latest report, released today, dives into the root causes. Let’s explore the key insights👇🏾

Following the will they/won't they on US tariffs, we wrote a defence of imports. "When Britain exports goods and services – whether whisky or legal expertise – we earn the means to afford imports in return. The point of exports is to pay for imports." www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/a-ta...

What does the UK buy from the US: oil and gas. What does the UK sell to the US: chemicals and cars.

🚨No rest for trade policy wonks this weekend as Trump announced 25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and an additional 10% to China from Tuesday 4th February (on top of the existing ~19% tariffs implemented on 2/3 of US-China trade during Trump’s first term and extended during the Biden administration).

'Mildly beneficial' and 'obvious' - a good summary on PEM from David.

The Pan-Euro-Med Convention (PEM) is reportedly in the mix for the EU-UK reset talks. Why does it matter? Right now, UK firms must prove a % of value added in goods comes from the UK or EU to avoid tariffs - also known as rules of origin. This is a headache for firms who are part of supply chains.

It's a big day for new jobs. Can't wait to get stuck in at the Resolution Foundation. Thanks to @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social for doing such a fantastic job holding the fort, and to everyone for a warm welcome.

Delighted to have contributed a chapter to this comprehensive report, marking five years since Brexit @ukandeu.bsky.social

Really interesting piece of work by the team @instituteforgov.bsky.social Some key insights: - Spending used to come in on budget, but since 2017/18 is commonly topped up - Certain departments (home office, transport) appear to be systematically underestimating spending needs in recent years

Looking forward to discussing UK-EU relations on Thursday (virtually) with the Scottish Parliament External Affairs Committee alongside @emilyfry.bsky.social and @pholmes8.bsky.social. www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-...

When comparing incomes across countries, we adjust for the local price of all goods and services (known as purchasing power parity, or PPP). But when comparing the incomes of poorer households, shouldn’t we focus on the price of things that matter most to them?🧵

Good piece from @emilyfry.bsky.social & @carapacitti.bsky.social setting out some options. bsky.app/profile/resf...

How should the Chancellor respond to recent movements in the gilt market? While considerable uncertainty remains, the Chancellor is at risk of breaking her fiscal rules on 26 March. So what should she do? @emilyfry.bsky.social & @carapacitti.bsky.social discuss 5 options

Excellent new research on goods trade impacts of the TCA by the team @cep-lse.bsky.social. The detailed estimates for the first two years of the TCA show a 6.4% overall decline in goods exports and 3.1% decline in imports.