Interesting from today's FPC record: the recent rise in mortgage rates reflects lenders facing higher funding costs rather than wider spreads. So far at least, it's not a classic credit crunch for mortgagors - just an unwelcome repricing for those looking to take out a loan (inc. yours truly!)

🏠 New report out today from me, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social and Hannah Aldridge 🏠 We dig into whether financial regulation is holding back young people’s dreams of owning a home — and what policymakers should actually do to help 🧵⤵️ buff.ly/0OaFqsX

The MPC's 5-4 split today continued a rising tide of dissenting votes from internal BoE members. Last year, one-in-five votes cast by internals went against the majority decision - the highest rate of internal dissent since 2005. This is good! A sign of active debate among the committee.

Look, I know there's a lot going on in the news right now. But the MPC decision today was actually quite interesting! They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low. Thread below ⤵️

The MPC delivers a bit of a dovish surprise, holding Bank Rate at 3.75% only by a narrow 5-4 margin. Markets were expecting a clear-cut 7-2 vote. There will be lots of unpack on the Bank’s latest outlook for the economy and the future path of interest rates.

As interest rates fall, why is Britain’s average mortgage bill set to keep rising in 2026? In our latest Substack, @simonpittaway.bsky.social unpacks the weirdness of this interest rate cycle. ⬇️ buff.ly/EEQ99bZ

New research out from me today: why has Britain experienced so little productivity growth in recent years? And why (at least up until now) has the US has performed so much better? Spoiler: it’s not just tech companies and energy prices 🧵

The UK economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2024 on the back of an unexpectedly strong December. But yet another fall in GDP per capita underlines our ongoing living standards squeeze. A thread on the key takeaways from today’s data.🧵

One reason why UK low-income households are especially poor (by intl. standards) is the cost of goods & services for this demographic. What’s behind this – and what should be done? @simonpittaway.bsky.social of @resfoundation.bsky.social explores #LSEInequalitiesBlog

Are any marketsy people on here able to explain why gilt-OIS spreads have risen so much over the past year? The timing is consistent with QT being the driver, but that's only circumstantial evidence.

When comparing incomes across countries, we adjust for the local price of all goods and services (known as purchasing power parity, or PPP). But when comparing the incomes of poorer households, shouldn’t we focus on the price of things that matter most to them?🧵