Very good. I think the word for this is punchy. Also trenchant.

On Trumps grand future US business deals with Russia. Germany and Europe at least could use Russian gas. What will the US sell in Russia? LNG? And what will it buy from Russia? Western semiconductors Russia smuggled in past sanctions?

Is it credible that the UK scores 70 against the US's 64 in this index? Trump's open corruption, plus the vastly larger amount of money in US politics.

Saw 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple this evening. In a state of utter shock, even though I covered my eyes for most of the first half.

I'm agnostic on Starmer being ousted, but the market reaction should have little bearing on the decision *unless* MPs think it likely that a left-wing Liz Truss will be selected. In which case, get a new selection process.

Excited, and a little nervous about the polite grilling from esteemed panelists. Come along!

Need a bit of caution on gilt/sterling wobbles I think. As much about increased uncertainty at this point as anything else. If Starmer goes - initial market reaction will almost certainly be “UK govt shifting left, sell”. 1/2

Right - @johnspringford.bsky.social and I are doing a big event to discuss our essay Getting Britain out of the hole. With a stellar panel ft. Stephanie Flanders, Soumaya Keynes and Robert Colville. You should come! It is free and so are the drinks. Sign up here: www.nesta.org.uk/event/gettin...

Great discussion between @martinsandbu.ft.com and Michael Sandel on the rise of technocratic liberalism and the populist counter-revolution www.ft.com/content/7804...

'The Epstein files reveal a patriarchy in action. This is a world where the men are rich and powerful, and the women are not. The emails showcase the private behaviour of a male ruling class, as they network, joke and trade information.'

It seems unlikely that a new leadership would loosen fiscal policy. There might be changes that are both bad for near-term growth (more tax rises and labour rights) and good (watered down immigration policies). www.ft.com/content/c855...

The simplest answer is a bad hand, owing to the inheritance, ageing, geopolitics etc, played badly.

"The fact that the EU and UK were pretty circumspect and then ultimately rolled over with a deal, it convinced Trump that #tariffs work and that repeated threats are going to work", says @johnspringford.bsky.social on the latest #CERpodcast. Full episode here: buff.ly/z30mXwQ.

FT exclusive: “The US state department is set to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities across Europe to disseminate Washington’s policy positions and challenge perceived threats to free speech.” via @annasophiegross.bsky.social and colleagues

The only way Labour can win the next election is by governing well. That might not be enough, but it’s the bare minimum. The questions to be asking about any potential new PM are “what is their agenda and can they achieve it?” Not “do they currently poll well?” Or “can they handle a media round?”

My guide to getting over reading block in @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/article/12c0...

It's obviously fair that Britain contributes to the cost of EU borrowing for Ukraine weapons if UK companies get orders under SAFE. And it's easy to calculate, contra this, just not in advance. Share of contracts times borrowing costs as the programme rolls on.

If a piece of research doesn't engage with (good quality) literature that leads to different conclusions, it's best to read it as a politician's speech. [Norman Rockwell pic]

There’s a Schumpeter quote that’s something like “the achievement of capitalism is not the manufacture of silk stockings; queen Elizabeth had silk stockings. The achievement of capitalism is to put them in reach of factory girls.”

William Hague posting about the evils of X on X.😬 Seems oblivious to Bluesky and Mastodon which are both addressing his points about the independence of social media customers' data from the platform. archive.ph/rdVXM

On the sleight of hand that uses free speech as a diversion from questions of who controls the digital infrastructure of democracy and to what purpose. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The UK deal with the US on pharma pricing will cost 1/10 of the projected benefits of the - as yet unsigned - EU 'reset' over the next three years, Vallance confirms. www.theguardian.com/society/2026...

One of the big problems for marketeers such as myself is that people absolutely hate prices being used to indicate scarcity. Rent controls are exactly the same as calls for constraints on TicketMaster: requests to move towards a system of queuing for scarce products rather than money.

This makes a lot of sense, especially the conclusion www.ft.com/content/d267...

What is behind the #trade escalation and de-escalation we've seen between the US and Europe in recent weeks? @johnspringford.bsky.social unpacks it all in the latest #CERpodcast episode. Listen here:

How much will it cost the UK to reach an 87% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040? In a new letter, @thecccuk.bsky.social confirms about £4bn a year (£26bn a year of costs minus £22bn a year of savings). www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/u... 87% by 2040 is a stepping stone to net zero by 2050

The world has changed since the 2016 #Brexit vote. In response, the UK & EU need to be more willing to change fundamental aspects of their post-Brexit relationship. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ KAS UK & Ireland policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/vQRCfrT

I argue that retaliation against Trump would be effective insofar as it moves markets and other US politicians' incentives, especially in an election year. Modelling long-term effects of higher tariffs on the US or EU is a less helpful guide to action.

Some thoughts on this interesting exchange between @robertsaunders.bsky.social and @igmansfield.bsky.social To Iain, I would suggest his piece underplays the mounting evidence of harm to the British economy. And to Robert, an alternative argument on EU membership 'expanding Britain's global role'. 1

The most truthful thing Lavrov has said in a long time.

I may be a naive little baby but I don't think sinister racist YouTubers should be on Question Time at all. Booking Nick Griffin was massively controversial in 2009 but I can only imagine that the bookers don't care anymore, which seems bad

Some thoughts on this interesting exchange between @robertsaunders.bsky.social and @igmansfield.bsky.social To Iain, I would suggest his piece underplays the mounting evidence of harm to the British economy. And to Robert, an alternative argument on EU membership 'expanding Britain's global role'. 1

1/10. Tory peer Daniel Hannan has posted a potted history of slavery that demonstrates how historical understanding is being twisted by politicians. I’ll examine it in light of historians’ research.

Ned Kelly looking like he’s about to open a toast cafe in Shoreditch.

If you want a guess as to what Kevin Warsh -- who throughout the Obama years was a devout hawk -- told the President to win the job of Fed Chair, I think this clip might give you a sense of it. (This is from late October.)

Very good piece by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com.... The US under Trump 2.0 has shifted towards authoritarianism as record speed but unlike other examples (e.g. Putin, Orban) it's happened by bypassing institutions rather than permanently corrupting them... www.ft.com/content/b474...

This makes the post-9/11 NSA warrantless surveillance program look like digging through people's trash (which the FBI also did). That caused such a backlash there was still congressional activity on it a decade later. This is absolutely blood-chilling levels of state overreach and so far crickets.

Surely correct that Britain is being forced to choose. This may well be a rupture, as Carney put it, because de-MAGAfying US politics and institutions will be difficult even if the Republicans lose. Britain should also be part of the attempt to uphold *the European order* against the far right.

So it looks like Trump is going to nominate Warsh. Couple of thoughts: 1. Lol at the whole Rick Rieder stuff last week. Good plot twist at the end of this season of The Apprentice. 2. Feels like an odd pick to me. Warsh was almost always hawkish & wrong during 2006-11. www.ft.com/content/e227...

Great stuff from Andrew - on why low funding and weak enforcement powers explain the failures of Britain's regulators.

Some new Bronze Age archaeology showcasing trade links between ancient Britain and the continent

Is it possible to have a *successful* Conservative economic programme that isn't founded on openness to trade and migration? A bigger effective market to provide economies of scale; workers to expand production in labour-intensive services, including the public sector, while bearing down on costs.

"Sacrificing principle for popularity is one thing. Harsh tactics that produce no return — Labour continues to be outpolled by Reform UK — are ghastly. "

@chrisdillow.bsky.social is sceptical of 'if I were king' better regulation of utilities, of the type @acjsissons.bsky.social and I suggest. Proposes consumer organisation instead. chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-regulat...

Jonathan surveys Brexit and immigration over the long duree. Looking forward to reading this in full.

The expensive purchase of insurance against the actions of mad kings that Carney was talking about. Plus social-media-fried brains?

This is a sensible hedge against the AI Startup vapourizing, offering an income stream as a lifestyle influencer.

📢now forthcoming in ECMA! The Class Gap in Career Progression: Evidence from US Academia Class is rarely a focus of research or DEI in elite US occupations. Evidence suggests it should be: we find a large class gap in at least one occupation - tenure-track academia...🧵

New Swingometer! The Gorton and Denton By-election: A tale of Two Manchesters open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

Very helpful explainer.