It's not bad exactly - more awkward with people outside an intimate circle. "What emotion should I display towards this person who I don't know well?"

"Can we say that #populists are natural predators on the inherent weaknesses of democracies, preying on issues that are hard to resolve in a democratic way?" @zecsaky.bsky.social asked @benansell.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast. Listen here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF

NEW REPORT: Modelling and reforming school choice By Ellen Greaves, @estellecantillon.bsky.social, @mariagraziacavallo.bsky.social and me. Blog economics.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2025/11/06/a... Policy briefing www.bristol.ac.uk/media-librar... #EconSky #EduSky 1/9

This would also be anti-growth, because it would reduce new EV sales and do little to curb congestion.

Spain in a sweet spot: tourism boom, growing high value services, decent manufacturing base, relatively low energy costs, high immigration. www.reuters.com/default/spai...

From CER: What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe. www.cer.eu/insights/wha...

I found the campaign in the Netherlands very frustrating and was even more annoyed by all the hot takes suggesting the result marked a defeat for the populists, so I tried to write my anger away open.substack.com/pub/twentyfo...

The IFS has calculated that the effective carbon price on household use of gas is negative, thanks to its lower VAT rate. ifs.org.uk/articles/tax.... This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!

Many thanks to @johnspringford.bsky.social and @zecsaky.bsky.social for having me on to talk about populism and democracy.

Thought-provoking and beautifully delivered, as ever

This was extremely interesting. Or at least Zselyke and Ben were.

Democrat Ousts Republican Bin Lorry Driver, Who Must Now Collect The Bins. It is possible to have too much politics. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...

I did some fairly detailed research on this. My house is average, insulation-wise. The cost of cutting emissions via a heat pump was a lot lower than insulation. Makes sense for government to prioritise heat pump support.

open.substack.com/pub/geoffmul... A lot of very important points in a short post

"Have-a-go hero" would be perfect if Americans understood the phrase and the rest of the Anglosphere knew that a hero was a sandwich.

New Streisand effect forthcoming.

The sun is shining in Brussels on this enlargement day! ☀️🗒️The Commission is presenting today enlargement progress reports on EU candidate countries. A good occasion for a thread on my recent work on the implications of enlargement on EU climate and energy agenda:

The case for tax rises is stronger & clearer than Reeves pretends. It's that, given our lack of productive capacity, we have an inflation problem, which means that the alternative to tax rises is either infeasible cuts in public spending or higher mortgage rates.

NEW REPORT: POWERING HOMES, POWERING GROWTH Taking the carbon out of heating buildings is one of the hardest parts of climate policy. Our new report starts by pointing out that while it is indeed hard, that doesn’t justify the poor performance of multiple governments in trying to tackle it. /1

It must be so easy for Denmark to come up with appropriate diplomatic gifts every time they visit somewhere.

Removing VAT and legacy green levies from electricity bills is an excellent idea. Removing VAT from gas is a very bad one. Use social tariffs on gas if you like but widen the electricity-gas price differential in general. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

My first op-ed! What a day for it. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Re the death of Dick Cheney, it is worth reflecting on the inflection point in this chart when considering his legacy.

legend. we all like to think we'd do the right thing but it sounds like this guy did www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

As @jillongovt.bsky.social and @iandunt.bsky.social point out, this is late and may not help Reeves much politically. But at least she's acknowledging that Brexit has been damaging. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

You can tell Britain's still in a bad spot because the stance of many right-of-centre figures still isn't "Farage as PM? Don't be ridiculous".

Britain carving out some export niches. Good to see.

Delighted to announce we are advertising our first academic post in the Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM). The position is Associate Professor in Politics, Technology and Computational Social Science and is joint with Politics, the Oxford Internet Institute, and Reuben College 1/n

“You would have expected the UK – given the size of its finance sector – to have done at least as well, if not better, than other countries,” says @johnspringford.bsky.social, an associate fellow at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. buff.ly/0PiW2wX

This is what happens when you house children on their own in hotels, rather than providing them with proper care. That more children then went missing from reception centres after the High Court banned them being housed in hotels is appalling. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

@rjpartington.bsky.social on productivity, the City and Brexit www.theguardian.com/business/202...

A world without Keir Starmer: Is it time to change the Labour leader? iandunt.substack.com/p/a-world-wi...

Terrific piece from John Springford - a cool-headed analysis on the interplay between trade openness, migration policies, and the rise of populism. Required reading in my view. N=2 but would say the success of D66 and CDA in the Dutch campaign confirm John's thesis. www.cer.eu/insights/pol...

There's a libertarian case against this mess. Unelected quangos shouldn't be taking political decisions, especially if their leadership is politically appointed. Regulators tend to overreact to panics, imposing high costs on businesses for a small reduction in risk www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Of course the NHS can run more effectively; it did so just 6 years ago But achieving those improvements requires investment in capital (buildings, IT, diagnostic equipment, beds), correct staff mix, investment in preventative activity, sorting social care etc. None of that mentioned

I've seen a lot of 'Poland had fast growth and a far-right government'. The economics of populism is more complicated than that. Last plug for this one. www.cer.eu/insights/pol...

Is gas still the reason GB energy prices are high? New Nesta blog by me. There's been a lot of talk about non-commodity costs on electricity bills, and how they're now dominating bill rises. My conclusion is: yes, they're a problem and need tackling; but they're not yet as big a problem as gas.

My latest for the FT New homes: even if you build them, there’s no one to buy them www.ft.com/content/9080...

Results for Dutch elections are trickling in. As expected, some surprises. My thoughts: Is this the end of populism in The Netherlands? No. Freedom Party (PVV) has lost seats, but the far right vote has splintered. Big wins for JA21, a PVV-light party: 30% of PVV voters in 2023 now voted for JA21

But wine importer Bill DeBlasio did give the reporter what they wanted to hear www.semafor.com/article/10/2...

Good primer from @theguardian.com on the Dutch elections, with comments from Koen Vossen (@radboudpol.bsky.social), @casmudde.bsky.social and - rather humbled by the company - me. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

Economic planning of labour supply in action. Johnson didn't engage in an 'open borders experiment' - he attempted to protect the labour market and British unis from the end of free movement. Now Starmer's probably overcorrecting (as some of us predicted, but let's see).

Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K. This will have significant consequences, both economic and political. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

Another 'happy to correct the record' coming.

The Times has deleted two articles - both hit pieces - this week. Has this ever happened before?

@johnspringford.bsky.social surveys the literature on #populism and concludes that policies designed to appease populism won't be effective. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight - read here: buff.ly/O2SoUok

Recognise that the far right is your enemy, stop helping them, push back against them instead.

This is very good. There is no point in trying to out-Farage Farage. But the fightback will take time and there are no quick fixes.

Does the rise of populism have economic roots, and more protectionist and anti-immigration policies help? Quick thread on my latest piece here buff.ly/O2SoUok

Good to see @dailymail.co.uk @thetimes.com and @telegraphnews.bsky.social all delete their articles - sad the lies went up in the first place