Amazing chart, this -

UBS: "we now forecast global AI capex to reach USD 423bn this year (from our previous estimate of USD 375bn) and USD 571bn in 2026 (from USD 500bn). By 2030, we expect overall spending to hit USD 1.3tr"

YES!

Love this piece, in which Guardian reading Blokes of a Certain Age recommend club tracks to their kids, a la John Lewis ad - www.theguardian.com/music/2025/n...

35bps on the 10-year in a month is not trivial - and notable that the fiscal crisis talk has been meaningfully quietened

📰 Read coverage of the report in the @theguardian.com with thanks to the excellent @guardianheather.bsky.social. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Delighted to see coverage of taxing questions from @guardianheather.bsky.social in the @theguardian.com ⬇️ www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Oh for goodness sake grow up, lads.

X is not only completely out of control, it is also increasingly dangerous.

Thanks Heather. I have made that point directly to Downing Street. I think it is going to take some more vocal political pressure to get it prioritised.

Oh good he’s gonna talk to them at some point in the next three years that’s reassuring

Just done a quick electoral history check and the last time Labour stood a candidate in Caerphilly or seats covering roughly the same area and got 11% or less is...never. Labour's first Westminster candidate Charles Stanton stood in E Glamorganshire in Dec 1910 and got 24%.

Data through early October show that tariffs have raised retail prices on average by 4.9pp relative to the pre-tariff trend.

Ed Luce watching democracy die in the United States of America

Important to have priorities...

So much angsty equivocation on responding to this from some Labour strategists - and yet when you actually ask the prime minister about what he thinks on this issue, he's absolutely crystal clear. Might make you think no one ever asked him what the Labour response should be. (clip is on ITV)

NEW - Starmer on Katy Lam: "I can't tell you how much I disagree with her. "People who are lawfully in this country, who have been working in our communities, our neighbours... to reach in and remove them from our country - for 'cultural reasons'. That is how far the Conservative party has sunk."

““When you need to move fast” is the new tongue-in-cheek advertising tagline for the company Böcker” (who made the special ladder the thieves used!)

Timeline cleanse: www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

Stephen Bush on the extraordinary draft legislation which Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp, Matt Vickers, Katie Lam and backbench colleagues have proposed in parliament It is a proposal that would seek to deport around 5% of the resident population, including over a quarter of a million with ILR

Masterful sarcasm from @peterwalker99.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

The turnip harvest is up 38%, Comrades!

This is fascinating, though @luketryl.bsky.social perhaps you could have asked people where they thought other party supporters were going as well... *I initially misread 'Hell' as 'Hull', and well Reform voters probably are more likely to go there too.

Oh great the retired colonels have gone woke now.

The draft legislation is crackers. It would fail immediately if we stayed in the ECHR but it disappears the human rights act. if passed after that it would involve mandatory loss of ILR for up to 400,000 people + refusal of 2-3 million others, though without no credible means to identify or remove

Exactly - Labour is itself contemplating changing the immigration rules in a very major way on people who have already arrived here. With a view to forcing some of them to leave. Otherwise, what on earth would be the purpose of the change?

Not completely sure it's the "lack of transparency" that's the problem here - more the lack of walls.

hard to think of a less apt description of the current incumbents' communication style

We need less algorithm and more Al Gore rhythm amirite lads

Labour spokesman “The Tories want to retrospectively change the rules to deport people who have been in this country and contributed to our society for decades. They would separate British children from their parents and expel doctors and nurses who have been serving patients in the NHS for years."

Before you go drawing strong conclusions, all this would tell you based on history (with a very unsatisfying “n” given it’s really two episodes) is that: -maybe speculative stocks are about to crash -maybe speculative stocks are going to go bonkers for another few years and then crash

In one crisp para — & the 2 charts he highlights — @chrisgiles.ft.com bursts a huge number of “welfare” myths www.ft.com/content/ee67...

Just had a chat with Rachel Reeves in Washington. She: - says taxes on wealthy will feature in budget - wants UK bond yields back in line with rest of G7 - says OBR should have revised forecasts earlier - promises continued investment, no return to austerity www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Looking at this pic makes me feel like I've just skipped directly to the Netflix doc about this lad's rise and fall...

There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system. Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts Spending is controlled, not spiralling Worklessness is near record lows My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...

BTW let's appreciate the sheer bathetic comedy of Trump's threats sliding from WE'RE GOING TO BAN ALL CRITICAL SOFTWARE WE WILL BRING YOUR ECONOMY TO A HALT down to WE'LL MAKE OUR OWN COOKING OIL SEE IF WE DON'T.

Sam Altman went from “AI will cure cancer" to "ChatGPT porn" in less than a month

I'm out in Washington this week where the IMF has added its voice to the chorus of warnings about the risks of a correction in tech stocks: www.theguardian.com/business/202...

There’s a good policy argument for more prudence But politically, it means taxing more (or cutting more) to move a very uncertain forecast for a few years out. And when you’ve already got to tax a lot. A tricky sell!

NEW: the chancellor will target more headroom against her fiscal rules in the 26 November Budget as a buffer against volatile bond markets - www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

This is so dark (and more great reporting on this grim industry from @byrobdavies.bsky.social

If this isn’t evidence of an AI bubble I don’t know what is 🫧

Just imagine how great they'll be when they get down to 10%!

Hmm, not sure it's a great thing when the MD of the IMF is telling us all to "buckle up" 😬 www.theguardian.com/business/202...

We now go live to the Labour Party's opposition research unit.

Morning: to any fans of ONS shenanigans, a new “Notice” informs us that an error in VAT data from HMRC means public sector net borrowing is £2bn lower so far this fiscal year than previously thought. This will not have gone down at all badly in HMT. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gove...

AI pushers talk about it "augmenting" capacity, but that ignores human nature. Why walk or bike, when you can drive? It's easier, so most of us do, but you get fat & lazy. AI will do the same to a lot of people's brains, I fear. Via @financialtimes.com piece on AI habits ig.ft.com/ai-personal-...