I think I heard @jburnmurdoch.ft.com say this increase is down to a a change in the way the numbers are calculated rather than a major shift in migration patterns.

New data provides fascinating insights into outcomes of recent refugees granted status between 2015 and 2020 Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability link to data in reply

Useful new stats from Home Office on how asylum applicants travel to the UK Significant increase in applications from people on visas (mostly work, study or visit), not just small boats Also large differences by nationality: Pakistani and Bangladeshi applicants much more likely to come on visas

➤ UK will prioritise applications for transfers to UK (criteria not specified) ➤ Ppl deemed a security threat can’t be transferred in either direction 2/2

Text of the UK-France small boats treaty published. Key points: ➤ Process to take up to 3 months from arrival in UK ➤ Doesn’t apply to unaccompanied minors ➤ FR can refuse to accept specific ppl back & will give aggregated data on reasons for refusals... 1/2 www.gov.uk/government/p...

I’ve always wondered how employers & workers split the cost of UK immigration fees Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables) www.gov.uk/government/p...

Nice paper on Australian regional visas, which push migrants to live outside of major metro areas Ppl on regional visas much more likely to stay in the 'regions' if they were in cities, not remote/rural areas Middle-aged migrants w kids most likely to stay put journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Interesting paper: survey experiment finds US public are unconvinced by economic arguments in favour of admitting refugees, more convinced by moral arguments Legal arguments only convincing on the left journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... @sblinder.bsky.social

Is the British government is really going to be able to co-ordinate with industry to replace migrant workers with domestic ones? @johnspringford.bsky.social asked @msumption.bsky.social this and much more on the latest episode of the #CERpodcast. Listen here: www.cer.eu/media/cer-po...

Plenty of recent speculation about whether a UK-France deal on small boat returns will be announced this week. Would such a deal bring down arrivals? And what are some other options for improved cooperation with France and the EU? New commentary 👇 migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

I am writing a policy pamphlet. Here are all the ways to demonstrate I don't really have a policy answer, that I need to avoid: a. You call for a "national conversation or debate" b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture” 1/

Our Director @msumption.bsky.social on Today Programme this morning talking about why the care visa has been so difficult to manage Full interview 00:50 minutes into the programme: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Immigration lawyers: am I right in thinking that Statement of Changes says a) mid-skilled workers coming on the Temp Shortage List; & b) ppl switching in-country to care jobs DO still have path to ILR, at least for the moment? @colinyeo.bsky.social @jonkingh.bsky.social @johnvassiliou.bsky.social

Pleased to share my new article in Migration Studies @MigrationJrnl on why it’s so much harder than it sounds for government to select the “best and brightest” migrants I illustrate using the example of two widely criticized 'investor visa' programmes academic.oup.com/migration/ar...

I think part of the problem is that our official statistical ethnicity categories are badly designed: by using the word 'British' they mix ethnicity and citizenship in a confusing way. This is unusual internationally. Ethnicity is different from citizenship

"This narrowly focussed bill... makes no change to a person’s existing right to appeal any decision to remove their British citizenship, and doesn’t widen the reasons for which a person could be deprived of their citizenship", the Home Office says www.gov.uk/government/n...

Our latest briefing on migrants in the UK labour market charts the remarkable shift away from EU towards non-EU workers over the past few years Plus data on migrants' earnings, use of universal credit, overqualification, and much more... migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

I've started a substack 🙌📩 Subscribe now for weekly articles where I explore the data behind the big policy issues. In my first post I ask why new proposals for a digital ID card make me so uneasy, despite the possible benefits. Is Britain ready for BritCard? tinyurl.com/yawwd6jd

What rights do unauthorised migrants get? Interesting new paper looks at what rights 28 European countries give ppl without legal right to be there Most countries allow access to emergency care & kids' schooling, few (unsurprisingly) offer financial support cadmus.eui.eu/entities/pub...

Deeply sceptical about argument that long-term increase in small boat crossings results from weather Here’s why – but I'm interested in any counterarguments! 1. Yes, weather affects crossings *in short run*. That is clear in data Also more crossings in summer, when risk of death is lower... 1/n

This petition has had 10k signatures in the past hour, one of the fastest growing I've seen. Lots of signatures in some pretty surprising places, too petition.parliament.uk/petitions/70...

Calling UKRI-funded doctoral students interested in migration! Apply for an internship with the Migration Advisory Committee - deadline 8th Sept www.ukri.org/apply-for-fu...

Do most voters oppose immigration because of racism? My book shows that view is both too pessimistic—racism is a stable trait that rarely shifts—and too convenient, since it lets us avoid improving immigration policy: cupblog.org/2025/05/19/t...

EU and UK are reportedly negotiating a youth mobility scheme How does YMS work? How big is it? How many end up staying permanently? Our v short explainer lays out what we know about the scheme as it's operated so for for Aussies, Canadians & others migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

Why do migrants come to the UK? The Home Office surveyed work and study visa holders about their experiences and activities in the UK, and they asked them this very question. www.gov.uk/government/c...

We are tiptoeing into a world of having actual data on econ outcomes of people on visas. Exciting times

Interesting about migration policy on BBCRadio4. Framing by Jonny Diamond begins at 8mins30, followed by a short discussion with Danny Shaw at 11mins35. But the most interesting part was the discussion with @msumption.bsky.social Oxford Migration Observatory at 13min35 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

New work visa data show little change in application numbers between March and April. Health and care apps have settled at 1.7k per month, around half the level of non-healthcare applications (main apps only). Quite the change from 2023, when there were around 13,000 H&C applications per month!

Asylum accommodation has shifted a lot over the last 6 years. More hotels but also much higher share in London & SE than under the previous dispersal policy See our new briefing on asylum accommodation for the background migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

BBC Projected National Share (PNS) share of the local election vote: Con 15 Lab 20 LD 17 Green 11 Reform 30

Also Home Office can’t order ONS to pretend that people aren’t actually here

Calling migration data nerds: ONS needs you! Vacancies on 2 committees: advisory panel on migration stats, and a technical advisory panel on methods for producing migration data Details on both panels here - deadline 5th May Apply to either/both uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/announc...

My take on whether it's sensible for the government to release more data on non-UK citizens who commit crimes TLDR: yes. It's become a big part of public debate, and insufficient data fuels unnecessary speculation about what the facts *might* be www.lbc.co.uk/opinion/view...

Interesting piece from a GP working in an asylum hotel shows why the experience of asylum seekers is so complex & doesn't neatly fit the stereotypes in public debate (Assume author didn't choose the headline, which doesn't really reflect the article's content) www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04...

Public Accounts Committee opens inquiry into skilled worker visa route, calls for evidence by 25 April www.ein.org.uk/news/public-...

New stats from Home Office: 37% of 2024 asylum applicants arrived on a visa, slightly more than on small boats The remaining 31% will presumably have arrived on other clandestine routes (e.g. lorry), at port/airport with fraudulent docs or via Ireland ...

Yvette Cooper reviews right to family life for people who enter UK irregularly

New: Independent Chief Inspector of Borders & Immigration call for evidence on Home Office approach to overstayers, incl: ➤identification of actual & potential overstayers ➤communications with overstayers ➤ information to deter people from overstaying Deadline 16th April www.gov.uk/government/n...

Interesting paper on migration & UK training after EU enlargement ➤Migration ➔big drop in formal employer training but only of "less valuable" NVQs, not apprenticeships ➤Bigger impact on older workers &low-skilled jobs ➤economic effect "not likely to be great" due to training/worker groups affected

Useful new HMRC data on earnings by nationality, though what we really need is data by immigration status Earnings differences will often reflect people's visa route: family, asylum, skilled worker, etc Eg Pakistan/Bangladesh has more family migrants, Philippines more skilled workers

Totally fascinating discussion about how genetics and people's decisions to marry people very similar to themselves shapes social mobility conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/gre...

Really striking illustration of the changes in the migrant workforce post-Brexit

Has the Home Office managed the Skilled Worker route effectively? Here are three things you need to know from @nao.org.uk's assessment. www.nao.org.uk/reports/immi...

The government has now said that this GPS tagging power is “targeted at migrants who have committed crimes or who are believed to pose a threat but who can’t be removed from the UK because of human rights laws”, according to the BBC. The amendment is not restricted in this way, however.

New data on skilled worker/health & care visas Will be interesting to see if yesterday's move to make employers look for care workers in-country first (esp those laid off by sponsors with revoked licenses) affects numbers coming from abroad - hard to predict whether this'll have an impact & how big

New data answers puzzle of why skilled worker visa applications didn't decrease much despite higher salary thresholds: *grants* are down much more Applications: down 24% in July-Dec Grants: down 42% Refusals & withdrawn: up 58% Q: will this be temporary blip as employers adjust to new rules?

472 people have been arrested on suspicion of piloting a small boat across the English Channel since the start of 2020, according to the Home Office questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-ques...

Trump has proposed selling green cards US is basically already selling green cards by getting "investors" to lose some money on investments with below-market rates. It's less controversial only because it doesn't *look* like a naked transaction From my forthcoming book chapter: