Economic forecasts are *always* revised & the swing can be substantial. Add to that the OBR choosing this moment to revise productivity figures going back 10 years. Bad data strikes again, leaving the Chancellor with a fiscal headache & massive PR challenge ⬇️ www.thetimes.com/article/83c5...

Very astute piece. The unification of data systems that was already going on quietly in the background could be at risk now because it's being publicly framed as part of the move to a 'papers please' society.

Timely account of the fascinating history of data in our politics! It shows how much of the data collection that's defined our sense of who we are as a society across history comes down to a mix of accident, contingency & bias (& plenty of genuine concern for human welfare & a better society too!)

Spotted by a contact at the Labour conference in Liverpool! 🙌 Want to better understand our complicated, love-hate relationship with ID cards, population registers, data privacy, and being counted and put in boxes by the state? Head down to the conference bookshop (?) to pick up a copy!

Wake up in the morning feeling like T Blair...

🪪 ID cards are back! This time it's digital. 🪪 "YouGov ran a snap poll yesterday in which support had fallen to just 42% while opposition stood at 44%. At the time of writing, a parliamentary petition against ID cards is heading towards two million signatures." open.substack.com/pub/georgina...

New data provides fascinating insights into outcomes of recent refugees granted status between 2015 and 2020 Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability link to data in reply

I was able to discuss this due to reading this book.

"Digital identity cards might sound like something we should have - and an informed public would back them in principle - but getting to the stage of having them without Labour dealing itself severe political injury will not be easily done." georginasturge.substack.com/p/is-britain...

Want to know how digital ID works, what it would involve, why we don't have it already, and why the last time we tried to have an identity register it went tits up very fast? It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!

Want to know how digital ID works, what it would involve, why we don't have it already, and why the last time we tried to have an identity register it went tits up very fast? It's the perfect time to get hold of a copy of Sum of Us (e- and audio-books also available)!

Worth noting that public opinion on identity cards is pretty mixed. Not clear yet exactly what will be proposed though and we can be quite sure it won't be a physical card. Labour's experience with ID cards in the 2000s is definitely also worth remembering. They had strong support at first...

Well, it's really happening 🗃️ ID cards are back! From what's suggested so far: - ID will be all digital - Doubtful whether everyone will be covered because - Only need to present it for specific processes (i.e. not everyone works) www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

When the people you want to count depend on going unnoticed

There's a persistent impression about the migration debate in the UK that one side - that of migration sceptics - both feels and cares a lot more. I've got a nagging feeling that's not only untrue but having a disastrous effect. ⬇️ My latest post ⬇️ georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...

There's a persistent impression about the migration debate in the UK that one side - that of migration sceptics - cares a lot more. I've got a nagging feeling that's not only untrue but having a disastrous effect. ⬇️ My latest post on Substack ⬇️ georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...

Excited to share my latest Substack post - something a bit different from me that goes well beyond my usual data remit. Could I be onto something? Let me know what you think ⬇️ georginasturge.substack.com/p/a-monopoly...

Please tell me this isn't real!?

Just been on my X 'for you' page for the first time in a while 🙃 Without exception the posts were about: 1. Migrants/ Muslims/ ethnic minorities as entitled or criminal 2. Replacement of white culture and the need for remigration 3. Leftists are callous, insane or possessed by demons

Great deep-dive here from Ben Ansell into UK immigration policy trade-offs. The third in a series that looks at what the public seems to want and what the current immigration policy landscape offers as a way of achieving that. ⬇️

Not too long ago I had a strange conversation with someone about immigration. They were asking me if I could confirm their suspicion that some figures they’d seen recently were bogus. What unfolded was... not what I'd expected. georginasturge.substack.com/p/how-to-mak...

Most of us are in a wobbly position when it comes to our understanding of immigration numbers. How would things go if we didn’t make these half-remembered statistics so central to how we form and articulate opinions? georginasturge.substack.com/p/how-to-mak...

Most of us are in a wobbly position when it comes to our understanding of immigration numbers. How would things go if we didn’t make these half-remembered statistics so central to how we form and articulate opinions? georginasturge.substack.com/p/how-to-mak...

Quick, which decade had the best movies, music, TV & fashion? Americans don't agree on the decade. But they often say it was a decade they experienced as a school aged kid. For example, the best fashion & music happened in their teenage years. Do you agree? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Excellent piece by @jamesrball.com for @prospectmagazine.co.uk arguing for better data for policy making. We should all be extremely concerned by the many examples collected here. A must-read for fans of Bad Data. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/busine...

New Home Office figures today reveal a more complex picture on asylum than often assumed. The increase in asylum applications hides two distinct trends on asylum in recent years. Yes there has been an increase in small boats. But also a rise in applications from people originally arriving on visas

Revising statistics? The real crime is not to do it. In my latest post I explore a better way of thinking about revisions in statistics that doesn't involve accusations of sabotage and phoniness. georginasturge.substack.com/p/revising-s...

Recent revisions to US employment stats were less an act of inside sabotage and more about businesses behaving unexpectedly due to Trump's chaotic tariff regime. Attacks on 'phony' statisticians take us to a very dark place. My latest post for Substack: georginasturge.substack.com/p/revising-s...

Timely, accurate, inexpensive to produce: statistics can be two of those things at the same time but never all three. Why the US employment statistics drama won't end with the firing of one "phony" bureaucrat ⬇️ open.substack.com/pub/georgina...

Recruitment has begun for chair of the UK Statistics Authority. Could you help rejuvenate our official statistics? An important role 3 days a week / £75-£81k / 5 year term / apply by 5th September uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/applica...

Is now the time? ⌛ The data on electoral reform shows that the stars are well and truly aligned in terms of public support. A majority of voters from all the biggest parties - even Labour and Conservatives - are in favour. Do politicians feel the same? georginasturge.substack.com/p/electoral-...

Did you know this was a thing? A sustained majority of people now back electoral reform, and the rising trend doesn't show any sign of stopping. This isn't just a by-product of more people now supporting challenger parties, e.g. Reform. It's supported by a majority of voters across all parties.

Did you know this was a thing? A sustained majority of people now back electoral reform, and the rising trend doesn't show any sign of stopping. This isn't just a by-product of more people now supporting challenger parties, e.g. Reform. It's supported by a majority of voters across all parties.

Excited to share this latest post because I had no idea this was going on. Is electoral reform now inevitable? The public momentum has never been greater. And voters across all parties now back change - even Labour voters who got really lucky from FPTP in 2024. open.substack.com/pub/georgina...

Interesting. Violent crime is trending downwards, while some types of less serious crime are up. And those 'lower-level' crimes are things like theft and shoplifting, which are more publicly visible and still leave victims feeling powerless, even they don't involve physical harm.

The UK's shortage of driving instructors is weirdly acute. Not something that can be fixed by immigration given the requirement to take a UK-based test.

What a national bad mood looks like, in terms of hard data. georginasturge.substack.com/p/in-search-...

The population increase in England and Wales since 2021 is pretty wild when taken in longer-term context. The years 2022-24 saw the largest population annual increases, by some way, outside of the two world wars. Natural change was close to zero, so the increase was all from migration.

“Looking at reputable data on people’s wellbeing and mood in the UK, the overall picture is neither extremely positive or negative - it’s somewhere on the slightly warmer end of beige” open.substack.com/pub/georgina...

Come and join us! We’re recruiting an experienced researcher for our exciting new 3 year @nuffieldfoundation.org project - ‘Voices for equity: from evidence to action’ CV and letter by 15th August www.britishfuture.org/about-us/jobs/

Why are we hooked on bad vibes when they don't reflect reality? Even the PM seems convinced that something terrible is about to erupt. I took a deep-dive in search of data that could tell me about the mood of the UK people and what is on their minds. georginasturge.substack.com/p/in-search-...

This is excellent - the vibe of pervasive pessimism that isn't backed up by the data. Have been struck that the reports on social cohesion mentioned in this post have emphasised the negative (presumably because that matches the 'vibe') even when their own research shows reasons for optimism.

Why are we hooked on bad vibes when they don't reflect reality? I took a deep-dive into the data, in search of what is really going on. open.substack.com/pub/georgina...

These Euros so far have been the most unhinged tournament I've ever watched and I am fully here for it

Why do we rely on economic forecasts which are always wrong? georginasturge.substack.com/p/why-do-we-...

New UC by immigration statistics released yesterday. Before anyone thinks about comparing these numbers with their respective populations, just be aware that we do not know the current pop size of any of these groups - no, not even British. But I'm sure such comparisons are already underway.

Politicians make real and sometimes very painful spending decisions in order to 'balance' what seem like precise books. The reality is that they are anything but. Economic forecasting is always wrong. My latest post for substack ⬇️ open.substack.com/pub/georgina...

This is great 🙌🙏 Martin Robbins on the tyranny of small numbers.

Had a great time in Lille this weekend watching the start of the Tour de France. Successfully stalked the Ineos bus. Also got a nice close up view of golden boy Remco and Pogi 😍

Reflecting on last week's drama in Parliament over welfare reform, in my substack this week I ask, 'Who counts as disabled?' Read and subscribe now for free! open.substack.com/pub/georgina...