📊 Ref lead of 7pts Westminster voting intention REF: 26% (-1) LAB: 19% (-1) CON: 18% (+2) GRN: 15% (-1) LDEM: 14% (-1) via @YouGov, 09 - 10 Nov Chgs. w/ 03 Nov britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 13pts Westminster voting intention REF: 33% (+3) LAB: 20% (-) CON: 17% (-1) LDEM: 12% (-) GRN: 11% (-1) via @OpiniumResearch, 05 - 07 Nov Chgs. w/ 24 Oct britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 15pts ‼️ Grns 3pts ahead of Lab Westminster voting intention REF: 33% (+1) GRN: 18% (+1) CON: 16% (-) LAB: 15% (-1) LDEM: 11% (-1) via @FindoutnowUK, 05 - 06 Nov Chgs. w/ 29 Oct britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 12pts Westminster voting intention REF: 31% (-2) CON: 19% (+1) LAB: 18% (-3) LDEM: 13% (+1) GRN: 12% (+1) via @Moreincommon_, 31 Oct - 03 Nov Chgs. w/ 27 Oct britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 7pts Westminster voting intention REF: 27% (-) LAB: 20% (+3) CON: 16% (-1) GRN: 16% (-) LDEM: 15% (-) via @YouGov, 02 - 03 Nov Chgs. w/ 27 Oct britainelects.com

How the most and least deprived parts of England and Wales voted in 2024, and would vote in an election today Ben Walker | www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

📊 Ref lead of 10pts ‼️ Grns 1pt behind Lab Westminster voting intention REF: 27% (+1) CON: 17% (-) LAB: 17% (-3) GRN: 16% (+1) LDEM: 15% (-) via @YouGov, 26 - 27 Oct Chgs. w/ 20 Oct britainelects.com

The polls, compared to two months ago: Reform: 🔼 up 1pt Labour: 🔽 down 2pts Conservatives: 🔼 up 1pt Lib Dems: ⏸️ no change Greens: 🔼 up 3pts

Britain Elects poll tracker: Labour (19%) now polling closer to the Greens (12%) than Reform (31%)

📊 Ref lead of 10pts Westminster voting intention REF: 30% (-2) LAB: 20% (-2) CON: 18% (-) LDEM: 12% (+1) GRN: 12% (+2) via @OpiniumResearch, 22 - 24 Oct Chgs. w/ 10 Oct britainelects.com

❗ Reform GAIN from Independent Group Paulsgrove (Portsmouth) council by-election result: REF: 64.2% (+64.2) CON: 11.3% (-14.9) LAB: 10.5% (-4.3) LDEM: 8.7% (+4.6) GRN: 5.3% (+5.3) No IndGrp (-55.0) as prev. +/- 2022 Estimated turnout: ~27% (+0) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Labour HOLD New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council by-election result: LAB: 29.7% (-27.6) LDEM: 24.4% (+12.2) REF: 22.2% (+22.2) GRN: 14.9% (+5.3) CON: 7.4% (-8.9) IND: 1.4% (-3.1) +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~29% (-2) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Moseley (Birmingham) council by-election result: LDEM: 34.7% (-11.9) LAB: 24.4% (-14.1) IND: 19.6% (+19.6) GRN: 10.1% (+1.5) REF: 7.3% (+7.3) CON: 2.1% (-4.1) IND: 1.7% (+1.7) +/- 2022 Estimated turnout: ~30% (-11) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Conservative HOLD Whittlesey North West (Fenland) council by-election result: CON: 47.5% (-9.8) REF: 34.1% (+34.1) IND: 12.5% (+12.5) LAB: 5.9% (-16.2) No Grn (-20.5) as prev. +/- 2023 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Dunster (Somerset) council by-election result: LDEM: 49.6% (+8.5) REF: 28.9% (+28.9) CON: 19.5% (-22.9) LAB: 1.9% (-4.2) No Grn (-10.3) as prev. +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent Milton and Tamarside (Torridge) council by-election result: LDEM: 37.2% (+37.2) REF: 31.2% (+31.2) CON: 16.8% (+16.8) IND: 8.9% (-37.8) GRN: 5.9% (-27.4) No Lab (-20.0) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~34% (+0) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Glastonbury (Somerset) council by-election result: LDEM: 36.4% (-0.7) REF: 21.6% (+21.6) CON: 20.9% (-9.7) GRN: 19.8% (-7.5) LAB: 1.4% (+1.4) No Ind (-5.2) as prev. +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result: PC: 47.4% (+19.0) REF: 36.0% (+34.2) LAB: 11.0% (-34.9) CON: 2.0% (-15.3) GRN: 1.5% (+1.5) LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2) GWL: 0.3% (+0.3) UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2) Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.

Plaid Cymru GAIN Caerphilly from Labour.

Our election previewer Andrew Teale has done some superb previews on today's by-elections, including the totemic Caerphilly contest

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Meadvale and St John's (Reigate and Banstead) council by-election result: LDEM: 48.3% (-8.1) GRN: 17.6% (+17.6) CON: 12.0% (-15.1) REF: 11.6% (+11.6) IND: 10.4% (+10.4) No Lab (-16.4) as prev. +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Caterham Valley (Surrey) council by-election result: LDEM: 48.1% (+0.6) REF: 24.5% (+24.5) CON: 13.0% (-23.5) GRN: 5.5% (+5.5) IND: 5.3% (-0.1) LAB: 3.6% (-6.9) +/- 2021 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Whyteleafe (Tandridge) council by-election result: LDEM: 45.0% (+14.3) REF: 26.7% (+26.7) CON: 9.9% (+0.4) LAB: 9.5% (-1.8) GRN: 8.9% (+3.7) No Res (-43.2) as prev. +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~18% (-14) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Conservative GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Broadheath (Trafford) council by-election result: CON: 36.8% (-0.3) LAB: 22.3% (-17.4) LDEM: 19.2% (+12.9) REF: 16.5% (+16.5) GRN: 4.7% (-4.1) IND: 0.5% (-4.0) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~44% (+1) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Yesterday's Camberley West (Surrey) council by-election result: LDEM: 49.5% (+16.6) REF: 25.9% (+25.9) CON: 20.4% (-28.8) LAB: 4.3% (-11.4) +/- 2021 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Residents' Association Yesterday's Guildford South East (Surrey) council by-election result: LDEM: 41.3% (+18.0) CON: 22.8% (-8.1) RES: 16.3% (-21.4) REF: 12.0% (+12.0) GRN: 5.0% (+5.0) LAB: 2.6% (-5.6) +/- 2021 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Green Yesterday's Staines (Spelthorne) council by-election result: LDEM: 37.9% (+37.9) REF: 23.5% (+23.5) IND: 12.3% (-15.1) CON: 10.9% (-4.7) GRN: 7.7% (-27.8) LAB: 7.4% (-14.1) TUSC: 0.4% (+0.4) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~31% (-19) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Ashton (Preston) council by-election result: LDEM: 35.5% (+25.9) REF: 29.5% (+29.5) LAB: 23.1% (-41.9) IND: 5.4% (+5.4) CON: 3.3% (-22.2) IND: 3.2% (+3.2) +/- 2022 Estimated turnout: ~29% (-1) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Liberal Democrat Yesterday's Copdock and Washbrook (Babergh) council by-election result: REF: 32.0% (+32.0) LDEM: 28.9% (-27.5) GRN: 23.6% (+9.5) CON: 13.9% (-15.7) LAB: 1.7% (+1.7) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~39% (-1) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

In local by-elections where turnout is above the average, the winner so far this year has been... Reform: 54% Lib Dems: 21% Labour: 8% Conservative: 8% Green: 4% Compared to... The rise of Ukip in the early 2010s The SDP/Liberal Alliance in the early 1980s ... this is not normal.

📊 Ref lead of 15pts ‼️ Labour and Greens tied Westminster voting intention REF: 32% (-) CON: 17% (-) GRN: 15% (-) LAB: 15% (-2) LDEM: 12% (-) via @FindoutnowUK, 45945 Chgs. w/ 08 Oct britainelects.com

Ten council by-elections today 4 Lib Dem defences 2 Labour 1 Residents' 1 Conservative 1 Green 1 SNP Andrew's Previews: andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing...

❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative Yesterday's Bretforton and Offenham (Wychavon) council by-election result: REF: 43.5% (+43.5) GRN: 25.9% (+25.9) CON: 20.1% (-35.4) LAB: 4.0% (-25.9) LDEM: 3.8% (-10.8) IND: 1.5% (+1.5) IND: 1.2% (+1.2) Estimated turnout: ~36% (+5) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Our West Lancashire GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Aughton and Holborn (West Lancashire) council by-election result: OWL: 35.5% (+10.4) REF: 24.1% (+18.6) LAB: 19.4% (-21.3) CON: 14.9% (-8.7) GRN: 3.9% (-1.1) LDEM: 2.1% (+2.1) +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~30% (-5) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Kenn Valley (Teignbridge) council by-election result: LDEM: 50.4% (+11.0) REF: 23.1% (+23.1) CON: 9.6% (-19.0) IND: 8.2% (+8.2) GRN: 5.5% (-13.9) LAB: 2.7% (-9.9) IND: 0.5% (+0.5) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~34% (-15) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Widcombe and Lyncombe (Bath and North East Somerset) council by-election result: LDEM: 44.4% (-11.8) GRN: 15.4% (+0.6) LAB: 12.2% (+4.7) REF: 11.9% (+11.9) CON: 8.6% (-12.8) IND: 4.8% (+4.8) IND: 2.6% (+2.6) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~35% (-18)

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Lloyds and Corby Village (North Northamptonshire) council by-election result: REF: 38.5% (+2.1) LAB: 32.4% (-11.8) GRN: 18.9% (+9.7) LDEM: 5.8% (+1.5) CON: 4.4% (-1.5) +/- 2025 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative Yesterday's Skelton East (Redcar and Cleveland) council by-election result: REF: 65.3% (+65.3) LAB: 19.2% (-12.5) CON: 13.9% (-28.3) LDEM: 1.5% (-1.4) No Ind (-23.1) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~38% (+9) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Yateley West (Hart) council by-election result: LDEM: 54.7% (-5.9) REF: 27.9% (+27.9) CON: 17.3% (-8.2) No Lab (-10.5) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~30% (-4) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Independent Last week's Harrietsham, Lenham and North Downs (Maidstone) council by-election result: REF: 50.4% (+38.8) GRN: 18.8% (+18.8) CON: 14.0% (-2.6) LDEM: 9.7% (+9.7) HP: 4.0% (+4.0) IND(s): 3.0% (-54.8) No Lab (-13.9) as prev. +/- 2024 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Last week's Wigan Central (Wigan) council by-election result: REF: 47.2% (+47.2) LAB: 32.9% (-20.4) IND: 6.7% (+6.7) CON: 5.1% (-20.8) GRN: 4.4% (+4.4) LDEM: 3.7% (-17.1) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~32% (-3) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

📊 Ref lead of 7pts Westminster voting intention REF: 27% (-2) LAB: 20% (-2) CON: 17% (+1) LDEM: 17% (+2) GRN: 12% (+1) via @YouGov, 05 - 06 Oct Chgs. w/ 29 Sep britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 10pts Westminster voting intention REF: 31% (-1) LAB: 21% (-1) CON: 19% (+1) LDEM: 13% (+1) GRN: 9% (+3) via @JLPartnersPolls, 26 Sep - 03 Oct Chgs. w/ 31 Aug britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 13pts Westminster voting intention REF: 34% (+2) LAB: 21% (-1) CON: 16% (-1) LDEM: 12% (-2) GRN: 10% (+3) via @OpiniumResearch, 01 - 03 Oct Chgs. w/ 26 Sep britainelects.com

✅ Labour HOLD Strawberry (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result: LAB: 35.8% (-32.9) REF: 32.0% (+32.0) IND: 13.7% (+13.7) CON: 7.8% (-16.8) LDEM: 7.2% (+0.5) GRN: 3.4% (+3.4) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~41% (+7) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Labour HOLD Last week's Strawberry (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result: LAB: 35.8% (-32.9) REF: 32.0% (+32.0) IND: 13.7% (+13.7) CON: 7.8% (-16.8) LDEM: 7.2% (+0.5) GRN: 3.4% (+3.4) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~41% (+7) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative Hutton South (Brentwood) council by-election result: REF: 45.8% (+45.8) CON: 30.9% (-14.5) LAB: 13.3% (-14.5) LDEM: 6.2% (-9.6) GRN: 3.8% (-7.2) +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~60% (+3) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from SNP (seat change) Last week's Tain and Easter Ross (Highland) council by-election result, first prefs: LDEM: 38.8% (+17.2) IND: 28.4% (-8.8) SNP: 14.8% (-15.8) REF: 12.9% (+12.9) GRN: 3.2% (+3.2) CON: 1.9% (-8.7) +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Independent GAIN from Green (seat change) Last week's Caol and Mallaig (Highland) council by-election result: IND (Cameron): 36.3% IND (Henderson): 30.3% LDEM: 16.9% SNP: 8.7% REF: 4.9% IND (Prosser): 1.3% LAB: 1.0% CON: 0.8% +/- 2022 Prev. Grn elected unopposed. No Grn candidate.

✅ Green HOLD Last week's Rolvenden and Tenterden West (Ashford) council by-election result: GRN: 36.5% (-16.9) REF: 31.6% (+31.6) CON: 27.9% (-10.3) LDEM: 2.6% (+2.6) LAB: 1.4% (-7.0) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~36% (-6) andrewteale.me.uk/previews