Britain Predicts | Gorton and Denton, how the seat would vote in an election today: REF: 34% (+20) LAB: 29% (-23) GRN: 16% (+3) LDEM: 8% (+4) WPB: 7% (-3) CON: 6% (-2) Reform gain from Labour. We have also modelled for a possibly Andy Burnham candidacy: www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

📊 Ref lead of 16pts ‼️ Cons in fourth place Westminster voting intention REF: 33% (-1) LAB: 17% (+1) LDEM: 16% (+3) CON: 14% (-2) GRN: 12% (-) via @FindoutnowUK, 30 Dec Chgs. w/ 18 Sep britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 8pts Westminster voting intention REF: 29% (-) LAB: 21% (+1) CON: 16% (-1) LDEM: 14% (-1) GRN: 12% (+2) via @YouGov, 21 - 21 Sep Chgs. w/ 01 Sep britainelects.com

❗ Green GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Queen's Park (Brighton and Hove) council by-election result: GRN: 48.4% (+24.4) LAB: 31.1% (-19.9) REF: 10.1% (+10.1) LDEM: 4.2% (-0.4) CON: 3.5% (-3.9) IND: 2.7% (+2.7) No IndGrp (-13.1) as prev. +/- 2023 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Lib Dem conference this weekend: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

✅ Green HOLD Yesterday's Kenilworth Park Hill (Warwick) council by-election result: GRN: 40.8% (-7.2) CON: 23.8% (-4.0) REF: 18.1% (+18.1) LDEM: 13.9% (+2.6) LAB: 3.3% (-9.5) +/- 2023 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Labour HOLD Yesterday's Leamington Clarendon (Warwick) council by-election result: LAB: 30.3% (-18.7) LDEM: 29.6% (+13.3) REF: 16.3% (+16.3) GRN: 12.7% (-6.2) CON: 7.4% (-8.6) IND: 3.8% (+3.8) +/- 2023 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Newham Independents GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Plaistow South (Newham) council by-election result: NIN: 44.7% (+44.7) LAB: 21.4% (-34.0) REF: 16.1% (+16.1) GRN: 7.4% (-8.4) CON: 6.0% (-11.5) LDEM: 4.4% (-6.9) +/- 2022 Estimated turnout: ~25% (-5) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Trowbridge (Cardiff) council by-election result: REF: 39.6% (+39.6) LDEM: 23.6% (+15.7) LAB: 21.3% (-32.6) PC: 7.7% (-5.1) CON: 3.1% (-15.3) GRN: 2.3% (+2.3) PROP: 2.2% (-4.7) +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Danny Kruger MP (East Wiltshire) has left the Conservative Party to join Reform UK.

❗ Reform GAIN from Conservative Yesterday's Pelsall (Walsall) council by-election result: REF: 45.1% (+31.3) CON: 43.1% (-24.1) GRN: 4.7% (+4.7) LAB: 4.6% (-14.5) LDEM: 2.6% (+2.6) +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~31% (+1) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Illtyd (Vale of Glamorgan) council by-election result: REF: 31.3% (+31.3) PC: 28.2% (+10.0) CON: 19.1% (-10.3) LAB: 17.8% (-22.8) GRN: 3.6% (-8.2) +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Conservative GAIN from Residents' Association Yesterday's Wilmslow Lacey Green (Cheshire East) council by-election result: CON: 29.8% (-8.4) LAB: 24.2% (+24.2) REF: 23.2% (+23.2) RES: 17.3% (-30.2) GRN: 5.4% (+5.4) No LDem (-14.2) as prev. +/- 2023 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Talbot and Branksome Woods (Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole) by-election result: LDEM: 32.4% (-2.1) REF: 28.2% (+28.2) CON: 27.4% (-4.9) LAB: 6.1% (-5.7) GRN: 5.9% (-6.6) Prev Con was second-placed candidate in 3-seat ward andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour* Yesterday's Stotfold (Central Bedfordshire) council by-election result: REF: 30.8% (+30.8) CON: 20.9% (+1.3) LAB: 19.9% (-4.2) GRN: 15.6% (+15.6) LDEM: 12.7% (+0.2) No Ind (-43.8) as prev. Lab defence was second seat in two-member ward. andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Newmarket East (West Suffolk) council by-election result: REF: 29.7% (+29.7) CON: 25.0% (+4.1) LDEM: 17.2% (-3.1) LAB: 15.3% (-8.3) GRN: 12.8% (+12.8) No Ind (-16.1) IndGrp (-19.2) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~29% (-9) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Since last year, Nigel Farage's favourables among the under 50s has risen more than it has among the over 50s. What's going on? www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

Three-way preference for Prime Minister: Starmer (Lab): 33% Farage (Ref): 30% Badenoch (Con): 16% via JL Partners Polls www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

📊 Ref lead of 5pts Westminster voting intention REF: 27% (-2) LAB: 22% (+2) CON: 17% (-) LDEM: 15% (-) GRN: 12% (+2) via @YouGov, 07 - 08 Sep Chgs. w/ 01 Sep britainelects.com

👇 New post from Ben Walker Has Nigel Farage finally seduced young voters? www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

📊 Ref lead of 6pts Westminster voting intention REF: 30% (+3) LAB: 24% (-) CON: 19% (-1) LDEM: 11% (-2) GRN: 8% (-) via @Survation, 28 Aug - 02 Sep Chgs. w/ 02 Jun britainelects.com

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Stopsley (Luton) council by-election result: LDEM: 41.3% (-36.3) REF: 36.2% (+36.2) LAB: 11.1% (-11.3) CON: 6.7% (+6.7) GRN: 3.8% (+3.8) IND: 0.8% (+0.8) +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~43% (-10) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Green Party of England and Wales, leadership election result: Zack Polanski: 20,411 (85%) Adrian Ramsay & Ellie Chowns: 3,705 (15%)

📊 Ref lead of 8pts Westminster voting intention REF: 28% (-) LAB: 20% (-1) CON: 17% (-1) LDEM: 16% (+1) GRN: 11% (+1) via @YouGov, 25 - 26 Aug Chgs. w/ 18 Aug britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 7pts Westminster voting intention REF: 28% (-) LAB: 21% (-) CON: 18% (+1) LDEM: 15% (-1) GRN: 10% (-) via @YouGov, 17 - 18 Aug Chgs. w/ 11 Aug britainelects.com

At this point during their time in office [party] was Xpts ahead on the economy... +19 | Conservative, 2019-24 +5 | Conservative 2010-15 +7 | Labour, 2005-10 +22 | Labour, 1997-01 -10 | Conservative, 1992-97 -1 | Labour today Britain Elects Poll Tracker britainelects.substack.com/p/who-do-you...

📊 Ref lead of 12pts Westminster voting intention REF: 31% (-1) CON: 19% (+3) LAB: 19% (-1) LDEM: 12% (-) GRN: 10% (+1) via @FindoutnowUK, 14 Aug Chgs. w/ 06 Aug britainelects.com

❗ Green GAIN from Labour Yesterday's South Jesmond (Newcastle Upon Tyne) council by-election result: GRN: 36.4% (+15.2) LDEM: 33.0% (+7.3) LAB: 16.8% (-25.3) REF: 10.9% (+10.9) CON: 2.8% (-5.7) +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~27% (-9) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Green GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Grangetown (Cardiff) council by-election result: GRN: 24.0% (+24.0) LAB: 22.7% (-31.5) PC: 18.7% (-9.6) REF: 14.5% (+14.5) PRO: 9.6% (+6.3) IND: 4.6% (+4.6) CON: 4.1% (-5.1) LDEM: 1.8% (-3.1) +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Llangennech (Carmarthenshire) council by-election result: REF: 43.1% (+43.1) PC: 30.4% (-7.2) LAB: 23.6% (-38.8) LDEM: 1.6% (+1.6) CON: 0.9% (+0.9) GWL: 0.4% (+0.4) +/- 2022 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Reform HOLD Yesterday's Easington and Shotton (Durham) council by-election result: REF: 47.8% (-2.5) LAB: 20.7% (+1.3) IND: 20.6% (-1.1) IND: 7.1% (+7.1) CON: 1.9% (-2.6) LDEM: 1.1% (-3.2) +/- 2025 andrewteale.me.uk/previews

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Y'day's Hednesford Green Heath (Cannock Chase) council by-election result: REF: 51.5% (+31.1) LAB: 22.6% (-20.0) CON: 12.4% (-14.0) GRN: 9.9% (-0.7) IND: 3.0% (+3.0) UKIP: 0.5% (+0.5) TUSC: 0.1% (+0.1) (1 vote) Estimated turnout: ~18% (-10) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

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📊 Ref lead of 9pts Westminster voting intention REF: 32% (+2) LAB: 23% (-4) CON: 18% (-1) LDEM: 13% (+1) GRN: 8% (+1) via @BMGResearch, 29 - 31 Jul Chgs. w/ 24 Jun britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 6pts Westminster voting intention REF: 27% (-2) LAB: 21% (-1) CON: 17% (-) LDEM: 15% (+1) GRN: 11% (-) via @YouGov, 03 - 04 Aug Chgs. w/ 28 Jul britainelects.com

Corbyn vs. Starmer - who do voters prefer really? 👉 Now live on britainelects.com

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Sunday reading: Starmer now polls worse in Wales than in England britainelects.substack.com/p/death-spir...

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Our latest forecast: Reform and the Conservatives six seats short from a majority in the Senedd 👉 BRITAINELECTS.COM

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❗ Reform GAIN from Labour Yesterday's Bewsey and Whitecross (Warrington) council by-election result: REF: 43.7% (+43.7) LAB: 36.6% (-22.6) LDEM: 13.0% (-8.4) CON: 6.7% (-12.7) +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~20% (-3) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Barnstaple with Westacott (North Devon) council by-election result: LDEM: 40.5% (+0.5) REF: 30.7% (+30.7) CON: 16.4% (-6.1) GRN: 12.3% (-2.4) No Lab (-11.0) Ind (-11.6) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~22% (-10) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

✅ Labour HOLD Yesterday's Thames View (Barking and Dagenham) council by-election result: LAB: 36.1% (-30.3) GRN: 29.9% (+29.9) REF: 21.3% (+21.3) CON: 12.6% (-12.3) +/- 2022 Estimated turnout: ~26% (-4) andrewteale.me.uk/previews

📊 Ref lead of 7pts Westminster voting intention REF: 32% (+3) LAB: 25% (+1) CON: 17% (-1) LDEM: 13% (-) GRN: 8% (-1) via @OpiniumResearch, 23 - 25 Jul Chgs. w/ 11 Jul britainelects.com

📊 Ref lead of 7pts Westminster voting intention REF: 29% (+2) LAB: 22% (-1) CON: 17% (-) LDEM: 14% (-1) GRN: 11% (-) via @YouGov, 27 - 28 Jul Chgs. w/ 21 Jul britainelects.com

❗ Conservative GAIN from Independent Last week's Barleythorpe (Rutland) council by-election result: CON: 35.9% (+19.6) LDEM: 23.4% (+23.4) REF: 21.1% (+21.1) IND: 19.6% (-27.8) No Grn (-36.3) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~32% (-10) andrewteale.me.uk/previews