Martin Wolf absolutely on the money here. Declining fertility rates are about structural changes in society- more equal opportunities. Reform and voices on the right want to turn back the clock on women's opportunity. Progressives should give it short shrift. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Labour +2%. Keep the scandals coming. 😂

Martin Wolf absolutely on the money here. Declining fertility rates are about structural changes in society- more equal opportunities. Reform and voices on the right want to turn back the clock on women's opportunity. Progressives should give it short shrift. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Fundamentally, the Government's economic problem is trying to run a productivist strategy within the container of Sunak's international political economy. This puts a lead weight around its ankles.

Whilst it would be great if we were in the foothills of a tech driven productivity boom, I can't help noticing every local supermarket near me basically has no service staff. And unemployment is stubbornly high. Suspect what we are seeing more is old tech like self checkout being sweated harder.

Voters are ANGRY about immigration according to Cummings' latest diatribe. And yet, British Social Attitudes data published today shows voters split evenly between positive-neutral-negative on migrant impact on economy and culture. Some voters are ANGRY. Most are not.

The best news for the liberal chattering classes since the launch of Waitrose home delivery.

At some point we will also reflect on whether we will sacrifice too much in trying to manage that critical ally. It is bending our politics out of shape. That is the nature of what we are dealing with. It's distorting everything and may bring down a Prime Minister. From Wes Streeting's oped.

Just the other day they were saying we have to increase the fertility rate. If they are going to worsen work-life balance how do they square this circle? Oh, reverse female employment. That's how. A Reform clock only goes backwards.

Hadn't spotted this in Bagehot. It's been really bugging me- beyond sensible fiscal and monetary policy, the actual policy locker on "cost of living" is incredibly empty. A game of chance. From @gilesyb.bsky.social blog. Which makes a series of great points. open.substack.com/pub/gileswil...

Hadn't spotted this in Bagehot. It's been really bugging me- beyond sensible fiscal and monetary policy, the actual policy locker on "cost of living" is incredibly empty. A game of chance. From @gilesyb.bsky.social blog. Which makes a series of great points. open.substack.com/pub/gileswil...

The story of the past decade has been the fracturing of the right. For reasons that are beyond me instead of just saying "great, let's win elections and govern well in broadly centre-left ways" some in Labour have instead gone - let's get involved with culture wars and fracture ourselves too.

Grim morning for the Labour Party but it is healthier to live in a country where decisions have consequences than one where an administration steeped in contact with Epstein sails happily on, even as the resignations pile up across Europe

Today, as yesterday, the Government is trying to govern from a Blue Labour standpoint with a progressive leaning coalition. Locked in by a manifesto that prevents any room for strategic manoeuvre. Whatever those data charts and hero voters said in 2019 it just doesn't work.

2027: Just to say, we're shifting focus to developing our luxury resort model in Dubai. We can achieve greatness there in seven years rather than the ten it would take to make it happen on the moon.

Imagine if your whole political identity was defined by reacting to an imagined grand liberal conspiracy. And imagine you were also a Labour MP. What an odd paranoid existence you would have. Not least as you would despise many people you need to vote for you.

On MAGA, Mandelson and Epstein. open.substack.com/pub/anthonyp...

Creating development corporations with borrowing powers is a no-brainer if we are serious about massively expanding housing. It is not public debt in any meaningful sense- it would both generate growth and be self-financing. It's what the Europeans do. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

The Miliband "predator v producer" narrative felt too broad brush re business in the early 2010s. However, in the age of Musk, Palantir, polluting water cos, Epstein, fossil energy lobbying, it feels like it might be about time for a dusting down.

The big lesson for the media and political classes from Mandelson is to stop putting these banal characters on a pedestal. And here we are, with Cummings, saying nothing more interesting or insightful than the average X alt-right shit-poster. On a pedestal. observer.co.uk/news/politic...

I believe the hashtag was #qtwain

But it's all so complicated. So many trade offs to consider with restoring access to the single market. Blah, blah.

Everything is connected. The Epstein operation was one of the sewers where MAGA was mutated. Remember Trump's "you can do anything"? MAGA then distracted Starmer as he appointed Mandelson. So here we are. The strategy towards the US must change. This week's piece open.substack.com/pub/anthonyp...

This deal between Villa and Liverpool doesn't reflect well on either club- if Elliott plays 10 games Villa has to pay #lfc £35m. So they are basically holding him hostage and refusing to play him to try to get Liverpool to discount. Especially bad faith from Villa. share.google/c6t4Qz5AJSoH...

It is terribly sad that the former PM feels the need to say this in the face of low life blowhards. We cannot allow this to even be a question. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

All of these anti corruption measures are perfectly sensible. But they don't get to the heart of the issue. Mandelson was appointed because the Government was mesmerised by Trump. A firewall with MAGA is the key urgency. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Epstein's operation is at the heart of US decay. And Europe needs to wise up. New Substack. open.substack.com/pub/anthonyp...

🚨The Reckoning🚨 New Substack. The past week has shown that the Epstein exploitation network is at the heart of American moral collapse and decline. The UK and Europe need an urgent new approach. anthonypainter.substack.com/p/the-reckon...

I mean, of course Parliament should be moved to Birmingham. Manchester is not even on HS2.

This is going to sound utterly pretentious because, well, it is. But a great use case I've found for genAI is as a reading companion to Habermas. I'm sure the great man would loathe that but, well, such is the nature of postmodern communicative action.

If there's a white supremacist in the neighbourhood can they pop round with ketamine and hugs?

One of the things most admirable about the UK is that through historical complexity we have traditionally kept nationalism fairly thin- some shared values, institutions, a bit of culture, try to get along. Every time someone tries to go for thicker versions it feels off. Let's keep it that way.

This is a key point. The Government is sacrificing integration to seek to curb immigration. Which is absurd and rolling the pitch for further disintegration with a swelling migrant underclass in terms of quality of life and social and political status. Where do we think that might lead?

Net Zero is now largely a game of China. Which is why Trump wibbles on about wind farms. This is not unproblematic for Europe but the general approach is the right one. Quite apart from the ideology and chaos, the US is now a petro-tech state. Our strategy there isn't the right one.

A quick glance at the main US news networks confirms the Epstein scandal barely featuring. Meanwhile, we have a biblical storm. And that reflects really badly on the US given what's in those files - and what is not. They are becoming immune.

There's the same tipping point every time. Blink and you miss it. Not a single outlier.

The appointment of Mandelson didn't pass the sniff test on any level. Nor does the awarding of huge contracts to Palantir given security and ideological risks. Especially given what is happening with US defense and ICE (see Palantir and Minneapolis). The sniff test is helpful. That's the memo.

Whenever I have been in the situation of trying to manage a child kicking off in public I've always consoled myself with the thought that it's really annoying someone like this. It becomes quite enjoyable actually. Especially if they tut. Or it ends up in the Times.

Those obsessed with conspiracy theory have been food for what is the biggest wealth and power network ever seen. Wealth, power, alt right, authoritarianism. A generational change is coming. And anyone in power or wants it had better show they get the force of this.

I would rescue pubs by giving generous business rate rebates to independent pubs (up to five in any chain). And financing it through a rates surcharge on very large chains. Should loosen up some pub assets for small or community ownership- the latter of which I would subsidise. Maybe the former too

Oh, the EU is open to a far more ambitious realignment. It requires us to push hard- lead. Pro-Europeans should avoid talking themselves into taking things off the table. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

We are at artificial general intelligence according to this piece in Nature. It accuses those who refute this of continuously raising the "bar" so AGI is never seen to be reached. They do the opposite- lower the bar so much it feels very premature. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

There is a second story hidden within the Mandelson scandal. There is a sense that UK politics may have become too relaxed about its social proximity to business and finance. There's just a lack of critical distance that is uncomfortable. It's wider than Mandelson.

Was going to watch the second episode of the new Industry series tonight. For some reason, suddenly not really excited by an evening of the corrupt excesses of the predatory narcissistic uber-elite.

What really strikes me watching the Polanski interview this morning is how easy it is to pull apart policies like wealth tax, rent controls and water nationalisation. And also how that completely misses the point. He's using policy to signal who he is for and against. Their simplicity is the point.

If Mary Beard and Nick Robinson invite me to a dinner party I'll probably just either come or decline politely. I'm unlikely to shoot myself. Or has etiquette changed nowadays?

In so many ways - student loans that take 9% of your marginal income without ever being paid off, higher rate tax threshold freezes, mortgage and housing costs - we have seen the return of the "squeezed middle". A huge political opportunity/risk. observer.co.uk/news/nationa...

Good to see mainstream coverage of “deplaytion” - the loss and decline of neighbourhood playgrounds, and of a tolerance of children’s neighbourhood play. It’s critical that this issue is taken as seriously - in terms of children’s mental health - as social media. Thanks @anooshc.bsky.social.

On the back of SDS's and local plans the government/lLAs should be assembling the land for houses and infrastructure. If land is identified it should be CPO'd. At the EA we scope out what we want, contractors build to our needs. Housing should be the same, the state is the client.

Housebuilders have been given everything they want. And still they don't deliver and want more. The problem is our entire market-driven system. We've pretended it's planning but it's not (fundamentally). But there's some good news coming....