The immigration doom loop in full swing. Chasing the xenophobes is a doomed strategy both economically *and* politically. (1/3) archive.ph/pyVLg

Spineless, hopeless. (It was Mike Tapp, but can’t imagine the PM doing different).

Change in small boat arrivals in the UK from 2024 to 2025 split by month and quarter. It’s clear that the recent fall is a real fall not just a seasonal one. The biggest factor is likely to be fewer people reaching Europe, but recent harsher rules here may also be putting people off.

Britain’s population could start shrinking sooner than we think Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher 1/4

Far more people in medium-skilled jobs who came in 2023 were sponsored by employers whose license has been revoked than in 2022. This is particularly bad for temporary shortage list jobs. Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)

A good summary of the salary thresholds review yesterday: www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...

Recommendations (which the government may or may not accept): 1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700. 2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile. 3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL). 4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs. www.gov.uk/government/p...

I wrote this 18 months ago "Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from." ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...

Labour needs growth. But if it insists on preventing growth that might come from migration or Europe, something will have to give—perhaps their time in government, writes @benansell.bsky.social.

Few thoughts on the "Polish exodus" from the UK. 1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks. 2. Migration is really complicated. 3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure. 4. What you can do? THREAD 🧵

The new basic compliance assessment rules seem to be having a bigger than expected impact too. For most of 2025, student visa applications were 8% higher than 2024. But figures for November 2025 are 14% lower than November 2024. Not the biggest month but points to a smaller January intake next year.

The restrictions on work visa rules brought in in July are cutting immigration much more than predicted. Dependant numbers remain higher, but will fall over time as most will be dependants of immigrants already here.

The number of people crossing the Channel by small boat following the government's announcement of draconian rules for refugees. Not sure if this is just a coincidence but the announcement was made 17th November and the last crossing was 14th November.

Why are my figures suggesting net migration will be negative in 2026 and 2027? Two reasons: 1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25. 2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.

Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart

Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last). Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.

📉 The ONS has published stats that say net migration to UK drops 69% year on year 🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.

The scary thing is that the model I used in the article gave a figure of 323,000 because I didn’t know about the increased emigration of British nationals. Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off. I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.

New govt settlement plans are tougher than most voters prefer. Half say graduate-level migrants should qualify within 5 years; 53% want mid-skilled to wait under 10 years. Only 21% back a 15-year wait for low-skilled workers—many think it should be 5 years or less.

Labour really has a problem understanding that immigrants are people; and people plan their lives according to the rules that apply to them. You cannot just change the rules retrospectively, and you definitely cannot do so and claim you're doing it in the name of fairness.

Today's immigration statistics (at 930) will likely show a further steep fall. @jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

Net migration figures for year ending June 2025 come out tomorrow. I’m expecting roughly 250,000 but remember this is before any of the immigration restrictions in the White Paper and before the emigration of graduate visa holders peaks. So net migration will fall far further than this.

Even if they reward top talent or new applicants from abroad with faster settlement times, why should they trust the immigration system when the goalposts can be moved at any time? It’s the precedent being set that makes the UK a very bad option for anyone outside looking in.

The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.

The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.

Why the Home Office’s “earned settlement” proposals are anti-women 1. ⁠Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.

Data for high skilled workers entering on a skilled worker visa on pay year ending June 2023. It’s likely they will have had a pay rise since but still looks like a sizeable minority will be pushed onto the 10 year route. Especially engineers, vets, graphic designers and web designers. (1/2)

These comments by @danielsohege.bsky.social are unfortunately pitch-perfect. The idea that the UK is the Chocolate Factory and that there aren't other countries out there in dire need of nurses, doctors, teachers, carers, and so forth is delusional - and it's going to be too late when people realise

NHS transitioning from becoming a destination workplace to becoming the largest finishing school for the health systems of Aus, Canada, NZ, the gulf states...

Does anyone know if time as a student or on the graduate visa will count towards the time required to obtain citizenship under the new rules?

To qualify for ILR in 5 years you’ll need work in a graduate level job and either earn over £50,270 or be in a named public sector job (eg doctor, nurse, teacher). £125,140 qualifies you in 3 years. Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.

If 60% of nurses are considering leaving over these changes then it could be even higher in other occupations. Healthcare workers have more secure jobs and lower fees than people working in other industries, including crucially no NHS surcharge.

Updated net migration projection after yesterday‘s update on British citizens emigrating and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October. I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.

It’s worth noting that the majority of refugees who’ve arrived since 2005 will be affected by this as they don’t have ILR or citizenship yet. Numbers were high in the early 90s and early 2000s but were otherwise low until recently.

Net migration now estimated to have fallen from 944,000 to 345,000 in Dec ‘24. Some projections even suggest David Cameron’s old target of “tens of thousands” could be met. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

Between this and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October, it looks like net migration will fall much lower than I predicted (Which was 70,000-170,000 for 2026).

MAJOR UPDATE: Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that there will be an announcement on the earned-settlement (ILR) consultation later this week. Oh dear God, help us—Skilled Workers, healthcare workers, care workers, BNOs and everyone who came to the UK in good faith under the five-year route to ILR.

Labour is a “godsend” for Farage says the far-right.

There is a significant amount of secondary asylum seeking across Europe. Towards the UK has been a tenth of this (2019). (It could rise - for example, if there was data sharing across countries & we were not part of that. 2024-25 patterns show it is unlikely to be for reasons the Home Sec gives)

"Oi, I know we expect you not to riot as we continue to barrel towards you all losing your jobs in three years BUT we expect you to line up to be labelled racists for the rest of your professional lives whilst we do so." Starmer cabinet really just trying to inspire revolt at this point.

An update on one of the graphs in my recent article about falling immigration. Visa applications have fallen further this month, suggesting the 46,000 fall in the white paper from the July changes was an underestimate. Even before an inevitable drop in dependant numbers over time.

A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)

Yesterday I helped give a presentation on immigration law options to a room full of people trapped by the Health and Care Visa. Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors. This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.

"Home Office data suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to be working than British nationals and make higher wages than them." ✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

On 4 November, the Home Affairs Committee met with the Migration Advisory Committee to discuss the proposed changes to ILR. They brought up some very interesting points. Part 1

The far right want you to believe that immigration causes an explosion of crime. It's simply untrue. Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.

People from these 80 overseas universities are now eligible for a 2 year work visa with the right to bring dependants. But if they studied at even a top ranking British university they’d have no right to bring dependants and from 2027 will be limited to 18 months. www.gov.uk/government/p...