This is very significant. The January student intake is already down 1/3 on 2025 and that is before the new compliance rules take effect this June. It’ll only fall even further once universities start facing restrictions on international student recruitment.

The number of people crossing by small boat this year compared to last year. The fall is very real and not seasonal. Little difference in numbers during the winter but since numbers increased in spring, half as many people are coming as this time last year. This is mainly because of European trends.

9,000 main applicant work visa applications October-December 2025 but only 7,500 January-March 2026. 1/6 drop likely explained by tougher English rules and possibly the increased number of sponsors losing their license. We won‘t know til May but likely the fall is biggest for non-graduate jobs.

The complex proposals are often misunderstood: media reports invariably use an (inaccurate) shorthand of mostly 10 years rather than 5. But 15 years will be more common for 2021-24 arrivals. Few know its 15 years for chefs, lab technicians, electricians & hotel managers, as well as care workers

Every year small boat crossings increase with the better weather in the spring and this year is no different. So does that mean the recent low numbers are just seasonal? No- the number of people crossing in March 2026 is less than half the number in March 2025. There has been a real fall. (1/2)

Last year there were stories about 1,948 being the record number of sponsor license revocations in a year (July 24-June 25). Well 2,325 were revoked just from January to March of 2026. The sponsor rules get even tougher in April.

Surreal moment last night. I got IDed and didn’t have any ID on me. So had to search my sent emails for a 5 year old email where I sent a picture of my passport to my mortgage provider. Took about 5 minutes. After all that I showed him a picture of my passport showing my age. I’m 40.

Even Express, following up the Mail on Sunday "threaten to resign" rumour says the *most controversial* part of policy is to make people already here wait "five years longer" It will be +10 years for more Those advocating this rarely mention 15 years (or 20) Those reporting it may not even know

Even without the Earned Settlement policy, net migration is likely to be negative for at least part of the next few years. Graduate visas are expiring, but far fewer new students are coming to replace them, and work visa grants for entry are back down to 2018 levels.

Student visa applications have fallen a lot with the tougher compliance regime and shorter duration of the graduation visa, more than expected. The fall is actually even steeper than that as the student visa rejection rate has recently increased a lot, especially for Pakistanis.

11% of work visas sponsored in 2022 were sponsored by an employer who has had their sponsor license revoked, but by 2023 this had risen to 26%. Partly because more work visas were sponsored below graduate level in 2023, but even once you adjust for skill level more visas were revoked.

Only 2,300 main applicant visa applications for skilled worker/health and care visas in February. I'd expect about 10-15% of them to get rejected, so even fewer will be granted. The B2 English language test seems to be having a larger than expected effect, but also sponsors are losing their license.

Even without the Earned Settlement policy, net migration could plausibly be negative this year. A huge collapse in international student numbers has coincided with a very large cohort coming to the end of their time on the graduate visa. www.ft.com/content/aa84...

Corrected my projection for 2027 and very tentatively projected to the end of the decade and to a long-term steady state. I've included figures but those for 2027 are very tentative and those later are very rough. The shape of the graph is worth noting though as it isn't a smooth curve. (1/x)

These 2027 figures aren't quite right, but 2027 will still have lower figures than 2026.

Central projection figures here (note there is a lot of uncertainty, especially for 2027, when it comes to EU national emigration, asylum numbers and the effects of the Earned Settlement policy): YE Dec 25: 182,000 YE Jun 26: 69,000 YE Dec 26: -41,000 YE Jun 27: -123,000 YE Dec 27: -140,000

Updated net migration projection including the latest data. I've revised the emigration estimates down for 2026. But immigration is falling much faster than I expected so that has also been revised down, leaving the net figures largely the same. Very tentatively including 2027 figures.

Today's announcement bans international students and workers from certain countries. Would have affected about 4,000 students and 300 workers last year.

It's interesting just how few visas are granted for most shortage occupations over a 3 month period. This is just the top 20 of about 80 medium-skilled jobs on shortage lists. I can't help but feel like the list will be reduced a lot in the coming review.

Sky News hearing Labour canvassers found that doubling (and tripling) the route to settlement has caused significant concern with those directly affected (Commonwealth migrants who have arrived in last 3 years) Sheer scale of changes not yet on the general media radar, though MPs hearing a lot

New quarterly migration statistics out today. One thing that's clear is a big collapse in visa applications and grants for shortage occupations that are eligible for a visa but not to bring dependants. This would be even steeper without a surge in demand for ship and hovercraft officers. (1/4)

Can the government boost domestic training by restricting migration? In a new briefing, @msumption.bsky.social and I find that migrants on work visas are a small part of a much wider picture. Here's what you need to know, in three posts. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

2023 work visa grants (skilled worker and health and care) for entry split by expected time required to obtain Indefinite Leave to Remain under the proposed system. 96% of people on the 15 year route are Asian or African. Main applicants only as I don't have enough data on dependants.

Worth noting that whilst about 40% of main applicant skilled worker and health and care visas for entry have gone to people who remain eligible for ILR in 5 years, this definitely isn't the case for people switching from a student visa or the graduate visa who earn a lot less on average.

"These new rules won’t just affect new immigrants but will also affect over 2 million immigrants already living in the UK." ✍️ Following the govt.’s consultation on its “earned settlement” proposals, @jamesbowes01.bsky.social analyses their potential impact 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/remigration-...

www.gov.uk/government/s... Another fall in visa applications in January. Skilled worker and health and care visa main applicants down to 2,600 probably because of tougher English language rules. Student visa applications have seen a shocking fall from 28,700 in January 25 to 19,800 in January 26.

Does anyone know if UK Ancestry visa holders will be affected by the new Indefinite Leave to Remain rules?

It's not that hard. We don't have to let workers or students come here in the first place - as long as we are willing to bear the economic, tax and other costs of not doing so. But if we do let them in, we should treat them decently. And their children!

Labour MP @tonyvaughanmp.bsky.social Opened the Westminster Hall debate on the ‘earned settlement’ proposals, leading calls to abandon the plans to double migrants’ wait for settlement. 'Let us be a country that always honours its debts, not just its financial ones, but its moral ones too'

This was particularly bad in 2023. The Home Office have clamped down hard on visa applications from abroad, so this is becoming less common. However, it sounds like there's still a big problem with this when people apply for a visa in country (something we have very little data about).

Very interesting graph here from the Migration Observatory. @migobs.bsky.social

Canada has beaten us to having negative net migration. It’s likely to be the same story in the U.K. by the end of this year. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Whilst immigration restrictions are the main reason for the fall in net migration, they’re not the only reason. There has been a huge drop in demand for most high skilled jobs since 2022. Only financial analysts and (not for much longer with the new training rules) doctors have broken this trend.

Prioritising British medical graduates for training posts is likely to result in a significant fall in immigration of doctors. Most that come are taking up training posts. Some doctors will still come to train of course, as not all places will be filled, just not as many as currently.

The immigration doom loop in full swing. Chasing the xenophobes is a doomed strategy both economically *and* politically. (1/3) archive.ph/pyVLg

Spineless, hopeless. (It was Mike Tapp, but can’t imagine the PM doing different).

Change in small boat arrivals in the UK from 2024 to 2025 split by month and quarter. It’s clear that the recent fall is a real fall not just a seasonal one. The biggest factor is likely to be fewer people reaching Europe, but recent harsher rules here may also be putting people off.

Britain’s population could start shrinking sooner than we think Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher 1/4

Far more people in medium-skilled jobs who came in 2023 were sponsored by employers whose license has been revoked than in 2022. This is particularly bad for temporary shortage list jobs. Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)

A good summary of the salary thresholds review yesterday: www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...

Recommendations (which the government may or may not accept): 1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700. 2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile. 3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL). 4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs. www.gov.uk/government/p...

I wrote this 18 months ago "Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from." ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...

Labour needs growth. But if it insists on preventing growth that might come from migration or Europe, something will have to give—perhaps their time in government, writes @benansell.bsky.social.

Few thoughts on the "Polish exodus" from the UK. 1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks. 2. Migration is really complicated. 3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure. 4. What you can do? THREAD 🧵

The new basic compliance assessment rules seem to be having a bigger than expected impact too. For most of 2025, student visa applications were 8% higher than 2024. But figures for November 2025 are 14% lower than November 2024. Not the biggest month but points to a smaller January intake next year.

The restrictions on work visa rules brought in in July are cutting immigration much more than predicted. Dependant numbers remain higher, but will fall over time as most will be dependants of immigrants already here.

The number of people crossing the Channel by small boat following the government's announcement of draconian rules for refugees. Not sure if this is just a coincidence but the announcement was made 17th November and the last crossing was 14th November.

Why are my figures suggesting net migration will be negative in 2026 and 2027? Two reasons: 1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25. 2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.