There is a significant amount of secondary asylum seeking across Europe. Towards the UK has been a tenth of this (2019). (It could rise - for example, if there was data sharing across countries & we were not part of that. 2024-25 patterns show it is unlikely to be for reasons the Home Sec gives)

"Oi, I know we expect you not to riot as we continue to barrel towards you all losing your jobs in three years BUT we expect you to line up to be labelled racists for the rest of your professional lives whilst we do so." Starmer cabinet really just trying to inspire revolt at this point.

An update on one of the graphs in my recent article about falling immigration. Visa applications have fallen further this month, suggesting the 46,000 fall in the white paper from the July changes was an underestimate. Even before an inevitable drop in dependant numbers over time.

A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)

Yesterday I helped give a presentation on immigration law options to a room full of people trapped by the Health and Care Visa. Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors. This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.

"Home Office data suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to be working than British nationals and make higher wages than them." ✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

On 4 November, the Home Affairs Committee met with the Migration Advisory Committee to discuss the proposed changes to ILR. They brought up some very interesting points. Part 1

The far right want you to believe that immigration causes an explosion of crime. It's simply untrue. Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.

People from these 80 overseas universities are now eligible for a 2 year work visa with the right to bring dependants. But if they studied at even a top ranking British university they’d have no right to bring dependants and from 2027 will be limited to 18 months. www.gov.uk/government/p...

Whilst the fall in immigration to the UK is particularly large (likely a 80-90% fall in net migration from 2023 to 2026), it isn't unique amongst developed countries in seeing a fall in immigration: www.msn.com/en-gb/money/...

Well the blog that @jamesbowes01.bsky.social did for us at @ukandeu.bsky.social on how net immigration figures are likely to fall steeply is certainly getting some pick up! Read the full piece here: ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

A big fall in asylum seekers crossing the Channel by small boat in October relative to last year. This doesn’t look like a random fluctuation. Possible reasons include fewer people reaching Europe and the end of refugee family reunification putting people off coming.

Over 40% of international students who arrived in the UK in 2022 had switched to a work visa by 2024 (mostly the Graduate visa designed for that purpose), Migration Observatory analysis shows migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system. But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average.. www.ft.com/content/d70c...

We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning. New FOI data sheds light on that.

"Over the past decade, the continent has built a big, largely invisible fortress—one that carries enormous economic and moral risks. " Me in Time on European migration policy time.com/7328851/euro...

Net migration by mid-year 2025 (stats in November) and year end 2025 (figures next Spring) will certainly be significantly down on 400k for 2024. Here @jamesbowes01.bsky.social suggests likely to fall below 200k in 2026, perhaps as low as 70-170k. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K. This will have significant consequences, both economic and political. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

📉 "Any political benefit the government may gain from this fall in immigration could be jeopardised by the economic damage that it causes." 🖊️ @jamesbowes01.bsky.social analyses the fall in net migration to the UK and the potential political and economic consequences ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

The Conservative immigration proposals cannot be allowed to stand without a profound and widespread statement of moral condemnation inews.co.uk/opinion/tori...

High skilled workers have recently gotten even more concentrated amongst people from high income countries. Mainly because of the Home Office rejecting more visas from Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nigerians and Sri Lankans. 2/3 of the people from lower middle income countries are now Indians.

The government are making it ever more punitive to come here on a work visa and assume that there is a limitless supply of people who will just come here anyway. But over 2/3 of high skilled workers (excluding health and care) actually come from high or upper-middle income countries.

Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.

Do migration policies impact men and women the same way? Our latest briefing on Gender and Migration to the UK takes a closer look at this question

More rules changes coming today, include: Botswana visa free travel stopped from 15:00 today. Graduate route reduced to 18 months for most. English language requirements for several work routes will be increased to B2 level from Jan 2026. questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...

www.gov.uk/government/p... A few thoughts on this: 1. If jobs are downgraded to NQF level 1-2 then that usually means you can only renew a visa if it’s the same occupation and same employer. The proposal here would affect many of the most common non-graduate jobs for people to do on visas. (1/x)

35% of New Zealanders moving to Australia were born outside of New Zealand (and 48% of New Zealanders applying for Australian citizenship). 60% of Canadians applying for a US employment based green card are born outside of Canada. This is similar to Western Europeans who came to the UK under FoM.

With the government bringing in new restrictions against immigration, many people assume net immigration will nevertheless remain high. However, the evidence actually suggests that immigration will fall dramatically over the coming years and reach lows not seen for decades (pandemic aside). (1/x)

One particularly nasty thing about retrospectively applying 10 years ILR is that the lower going rates for people who got their first visa before April 2024 expire in April 2030. People with visas expiring between then and April 2034 could be caught out by these changes.

There are good reasons to think the number of small boat crossings may fall in the next couple of years - and it will have little to do with whatever has been announced at party conferences Europe’s astonishing drop in illegal migration economist.com/internationa...

Wow this is a Telegraph article where they’re taking a more liberal immigration position than Labour: www.msn.com/en-gb/money/...

I do think we sometimes forget: 1. We need high-skilled migrants to keep the NHS working, and to grow the economy 2. High-skilled migrants have a *lot* of choices over where to go And 3. We’ve been getting less attractive as a destination for years anyway (wages here famously suck)

Reform’s immigration plan falls apart on hard contact with evidence, economics and any form of engaged brain. Never be afraid to stand up for this country and its decency and future by giving them short shrift.

ILR grants have started to fall a lot as of quarter 2 this year. This is because of the pandemic starting 5 years ago. If Labour go ahead with 10 years for ILR, grants will remain low for the rest of this parliament. If not then they will start to increase again next year.

The top 25 nationalities of people that have Indefinite Leave to Remain but not citizenship. Roughly what you’d expect but a massive overrepresentation of China (dual citizenship not allowed) and a slight overrepresentation of the USA and Australia relative to citizenship grants.

An obvious consequence of restricting skilled immigration is offshoring jobs/business. Applies to US but also potentially to any further UK restrictions on skilled work visas/leave to remain for migrant workers. We have no automatic right to these jobs..

If Labour and other parties can't find a way to scrutinise, criticise and condemn a policy like this, they give Reform a free ride and make the future less safe & certain for those who come here, work hard and contribute.

Retrospectively removing indefinite leave to remain would be immoral and economically damaging. It would tear families apart. Attacking it as ‘potentially illegal’ is completely beside the point. Argue with the (awful) idea. Don’t try ’well, actually you can’t do that’.

DO NOT EXTEND ILR WAITING TIME TO TEN YEARS DEFINITELY DO NOT CHANGE THE RULES ON PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY HERE YOU TOTAL LUNATICS Long, measuredband balanced from @benansell.bsky.social on how to reform the immigration system (fwiw I mostly agree). benansell.substack.com/p/select-and...

🚨🚨🚨 Big news this morning as the University of Kent and the University of Greenwich announce the intention to form a multi-university group. On the site: Mark Leach and David Kernohan report on the sector's first "super university" wonkhe.com/blogs/the-fi...

Whilst it’s not the main quarter for international students it’s interesting that student visa grants have increased from 41,803 in Q2 of 2024 to 52,895 in Q2 of 2025. There’s been a fall in Chinese student numbers but an big increase in students from South Asia and Nigeria. (1/2)

It shows such a basic lack of political understanding that Labour didn't go straight on the attack over this. Just because most people are worried about immigration being too high it doesn't mean they're psychopaths.

Astonishing

Some nationalities have seen big falls in main application skilled worker visa grants in Q2 of 2025 compared to Q1. Possibly due to tougher rules on self sponsorship, sponsoring relatives and selling visas or possibly the government rejecting people they think will apply for asylum (or both).

In 2024- 36,397 people switched from the graduate visa to a skilled worker or health and care visa but 170,402 people took up the graduate visa. This means about a 21% chance of getting a work visa from the graduate visa. But graduate visa numbers are increasing in 2025 and work visas decreasing.

One little understood phenomenon is the increase in the number of work visa grants made to people in country who already have a work visa. People changing jobs and/or employers. Very little data is captured about which jobs people are entering. This massively outnumbers visa grants for entry.

In 2024 fewer people switched from a student visa to a work visa but more people switched from the graduate visa to a work visa compared to 2023. More switchers to skilled worker visas and fewer to the health and care visa.

Antonia Bance is a Labour MP.