Reform’s immigration plan falls apart on hard contact with evidence, economics and any form of engaged brain. Never be afraid to stand up for this country and its decency and future by giving them short shrift.

ILR grants have started to fall a lot as of quarter 2 this year. This is because of the pandemic starting 5 years ago. If Labour go ahead with 10 years for ILR, grants will remain low for the rest of this parliament. If not then they will start to increase again next year.

The top 25 nationalities of people that have Indefinite Leave to Remain but not citizenship. Roughly what you’d expect but a massive overrepresentation of China (dual citizenship not allowed) and a slight overrepresentation of the USA and Australia relative to citizenship grants.

An obvious consequence of restricting skilled immigration is offshoring jobs/business. Applies to US but also potentially to any further UK restrictions on skilled work visas/leave to remain for migrant workers. We have no automatic right to these jobs..

If Labour and other parties can't find a way to scrutinise, criticise and condemn a policy like this, they give Reform a free ride and make the future less safe & certain for those who come here, work hard and contribute.

Retrospectively removing indefinite leave to remain would be immoral and economically damaging. It would tear families apart. Attacking it as ‘potentially illegal’ is completely beside the point. Argue with the (awful) idea. Don’t try ’well, actually you can’t do that’.

DO NOT EXTEND ILR WAITING TIME TO TEN YEARS DEFINITELY DO NOT CHANGE THE RULES ON PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY HERE YOU TOTAL LUNATICS Long, measuredband balanced from @benansell.bsky.social on how to reform the immigration system (fwiw I mostly agree). benansell.substack.com/p/select-and...

🚨🚨🚨 Big news this morning as the University of Kent and the University of Greenwich announce the intention to form a multi-university group. On the site: Mark Leach and David Kernohan report on the sector's first "super university" wonkhe.com/blogs/the-fi...

Whilst it’s not the main quarter for international students it’s interesting that student visa grants have increased from 41,803 in Q2 of 2024 to 52,895 in Q2 of 2025. There’s been a fall in Chinese student numbers but an big increase in students from South Asia and Nigeria. (1/2)

It shows such a basic lack of political understanding that Labour didn't go straight on the attack over this. Just because most people are worried about immigration being too high it doesn't mean they're psychopaths.

Astonishing

Some nationalities have seen big falls in main application skilled worker visa grants in Q2 of 2025 compared to Q1. Possibly due to tougher rules on self sponsorship, sponsoring relatives and selling visas or possibly the government rejecting people they think will apply for asylum (or both).

In 2024- 36,397 people switched from the graduate visa to a skilled worker or health and care visa but 170,402 people took up the graduate visa. This means about a 21% chance of getting a work visa from the graduate visa. But graduate visa numbers are increasing in 2025 and work visas decreasing.

One little understood phenomenon is the increase in the number of work visa grants made to people in country who already have a work visa. People changing jobs and/or employers. Very little data is captured about which jobs people are entering. This massively outnumbers visa grants for entry.

In 2024 fewer people switched from a student visa to a work visa but more people switched from the graduate visa to a work visa compared to 2023. More switchers to skilled worker visas and fewer to the health and care visa.

Antonia Bance is a Labour MP.

It’s rare for a piece on immigration to point out that we can’t assume a steady supply of migrant labour because the ‘supplier’ countries have ageing populations too. Excellent piece by @samfr.bsky.social observer.co.uk/news/nationa...

NEW on Wonkhe: International graduate dissatisfaction is hitting new highs bit.ly/44TDpNq

Care work is now closed to overseas recruitment. Will UK employers hire more international students instead? Little known fact: former international students are actually already a major source of recruitment in UK care, and this can in theory continue until 2028 (link to our analysis in reply)

With the government closing the care route to overseas recruitment later this month, international students are likely to be one of the largest sources of workers for social care providers. In fact, new FOI data show they already are. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

From October 2024-March 2025 60% of main applicant skilled worker or health and care visa grants for entry were for jobs at a graduate level. 14% were for jobs on one of the shortage lists. 26% were for jobs that will no longer be eligible for a work visa from 22nd July.

Main applicant for work visas by type (excluding temporary visas, global talent or innovator). The vast majority of work visas are now granted in country but we lack clear data about the jobs people granted a work visa in country do or even (after 2023) which visas they switched from. (1/2)

Net immigration from other EU27 countries to Germany over the last 10 years (excluding German nationals). Something often missed by both sides of the Brexit debate is that net immigration from the EU to the U.K. was going to fall sharply anyway even if we stayed in the EU.

This is something- but if he wants it to mean anything the government needs to rethink its retrograde proposals on settlement, which as set out in the White Paper would be deeply damaging for integration and cohesion

The rise and fall of high skilled immigration to the U.K. after the pandemic. 72% drop since the peak in Q3 of 2022. Skilled worker visas for entry only.

MAC review of IT and Engineering sectors' use of immigration is out. TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?' assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...

that's good: this petition has now hit 100k signatures that's bad: "Apply the 10-year rule only to future Skilled Worker entrants, not those already building a life here under the current system" what it should have said: "apply it to nobody, because it's bloody stupid"

As other forms of immigration are tightened, the graduate visa is increasingly becoming a major component of immigration in the U.K. The problem is very few will get the chance to switch to a long term work visa and even fewer once work visas are restricted to high paid graduate level jobs only.

Net immigration of 431,000 in 2024. This would suggest that net immigration in 2025 will be nearer 300,000 without any new restrictions as visa grants were much higher in the first half of 2024 and people will be coming to the end of their time on the graduate visa.

New net migration figures, published by ONS tomorrow at 9.30am, are certain to show a big fall in numbers, probably by over 250k. But new polling by @focaldata.bsky.social for @britishfuture.bsky.social finds this will surprise 90% of the public, most of whom are expecting numbers to go up. [1/6]

Just reading this, it sounds like there is likely to be a mass exodus of high skilled workers because of Labour's disgusting plan to retrospectively make immigrants already here wait 10 years for ILR. www.reddit.com/r/SkilledWor...

Point 81 of the immigration white paper is worrying. Assuming care workers are on a 10 year pathway to ILR, none of them have visas that last that long. So is this implying they won’t be able to extend their visa if it is for renewal beyond 2028? Which would mean no pathway to ILR.

NEW on Wonkhe: International students may be being misled by false promises from recruitment agents. But for Michael Salmon, constant changes to visa terms and post-study work arrangements represent a much deeper deception buff.ly/z5qftl9

Particularly stark earnings variation by industry in global business mobility route (mostly intracompany transfers) Reflects different business models, with lowest earnings for IT services - big contrast with skilled worker route where IT workers earn a lot

Just 8,302 skilled worker and health and care visas granted for entry for graduate level jobs Oct-Dec 2024 and this is without further salary threshold increases. There are additional people switching from a student/graduate visa but numbers there seem to be much lower with the higher thresholds.

The big increase in graduate visa grants in 2024 was because students are finding it much more difficult to switch to a work visa on completion of their course. This will get even tougher with the new rules.

Top 5 countries for visa grants for doctors in Oct-Dec 2024. I can see a problem with the restrictions being introduced on work visas for Pakistanis, Nigerians and Sri Lankans.

Skilled worker visa grants (excluding health and care) October-December 2024 split by skill level. The new rules will reduce immigration a lot from some Asian countries but barely effect numbers from many other countries.

Hey Don, are you starting a tariff war in a movie industry? Industry where America is a biggest exporter? So when the rest of the world retaliates, how do you think that’s going to affect the U.S. entertainment producers and streaming platforms. Can’t wait for that one.

% of main applicant skilled worker visas rejected Oct-Dec 2024 split by nationality. Most applications by Pakistani and Bangladeshi nationals are now rejected.

BBC Africa Eye has produced this documentary: Stranded: Exposing the UK's immigration scammers We are supporting many people trapped by these scams. The Government's response is to shut businesses down without meaningful justice for the victims. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

This will end up reducing immigration to Spain and would have reduced immigration to the UK if we were still in the EU. It was particularly common for South Americans to qualify for Italian citizenship via a distant ancestor. www.msn.com/en-gb/news/w...

Non-EU master’s students by age group (new entrants only). A 5% drop in under 25s, 11% drop in 25-29 years olds and a 22% drop in people 30 and older. This is clearly due to the dependant ban. Older students are also more likely to stay after graduation.

Payrolled staff by nationality in Coventry. The initial increase in non-EU nationals was much higher than elsewhere but the rate of increase in non-EU national workers has fallen faster in Coventry than elsewhere in 2024 (by half rather than by a third).

Useful new HMRC data on earnings by nationality, though what we really need is data by immigration status Earnings differences will often reflect people's visa route: family, asylum, skilled worker, etc Eg Pakistan/Bangladesh has more family migrants, Philippines more skilled workers

Britain's migrant job boom, continued. My new blog analyses new data from HMRC on employment and earnings of those moving to the UK. ukandeu.ac.uk/britains-mig...

NEW on Wonkhe: Welcome to the walk in degree bit.ly/4iO4d5J