It's interesting just how few visas are granted for most shortage occupations over a 3 month period. This is just the top 20 of about 80 medium-skilled jobs on shortage lists. I can't help but feel like the list will be reduced a lot in the coming review.

Sky News hearing Labour canvassers found that doubling (and tripling) the route to settlement has caused significant concern with those directly affected (Commonwealth migrants who have arrived in last 3 years) Sheer scale of changes not yet on the general media radar, though MPs hearing a lot

New quarterly migration statistics out today. One thing that's clear is a big collapse in visa applications and grants for shortage occupations that are eligible for a visa but not to bring dependants. This would be even steeper without a surge in demand for ship and hovercraft officers. (1/4)

Can the government boost domestic training by restricting migration? In a new briefing, @msumption.bsky.social and I find that migrants on work visas are a small part of a much wider picture. Here's what you need to know, in three posts. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

2023 work visa grants (skilled worker and health and care) for entry split by expected time required to obtain Indefinite Leave to Remain under the proposed system. 96% of people on the 15 year route are Asian or African. Main applicants only as I don't have enough data on dependants.

Worth noting that whilst about 40% of main applicant skilled worker and health and care visas for entry have gone to people who remain eligible for ILR in 5 years, this definitely isn't the case for people switching from a student visa or the graduate visa who earn a lot less on average.

"These new rules won’t just affect new immigrants but will also affect over 2 million immigrants already living in the UK." ✍️ Following the govt.’s consultation on its “earned settlement” proposals, @jamesbowes01.bsky.social analyses their potential impact 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/remigration-...

www.gov.uk/government/s... Another fall in visa applications in January. Skilled worker and health and care visa main applicants down to 2,600 probably because of tougher English language rules. Student visa applications have seen a shocking fall from 28,700 in January 25 to 19,800 in January 26.

Does anyone know if UK Ancestry visa holders will be affected by the new Indefinite Leave to Remain rules?

It's not that hard. We don't have to let workers or students come here in the first place - as long as we are willing to bear the economic, tax and other costs of not doing so. But if we do let them in, we should treat them decently. And their children!

Labour MP @tonyvaughanmp.bsky.social Opened the Westminster Hall debate on the ‘earned settlement’ proposals, leading calls to abandon the plans to double migrants’ wait for settlement. 'Let us be a country that always honours its debts, not just its financial ones, but its moral ones too'

This was particularly bad in 2023. The Home Office have clamped down hard on visa applications from abroad, so this is becoming less common. However, it sounds like there's still a big problem with this when people apply for a visa in country (something we have very little data about).

Very interesting graph here from the Migration Observatory. @migobs.bsky.social

Canada has beaten us to having negative net migration. It’s likely to be the same story in the U.K. by the end of this year. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Whilst immigration restrictions are the main reason for the fall in net migration, they’re not the only reason. There has been a huge drop in demand for most high skilled jobs since 2022. Only financial analysts and (not for much longer with the new training rules) doctors have broken this trend.

Prioritising British medical graduates for training posts is likely to result in a significant fall in immigration of doctors. Most that come are taking up training posts. Some doctors will still come to train of course, as not all places will be filled, just not as many as currently.

The immigration doom loop in full swing. Chasing the xenophobes is a doomed strategy both economically *and* politically. (1/3) archive.ph/pyVLg

Spineless, hopeless. (It was Mike Tapp, but can’t imagine the PM doing different).

Change in small boat arrivals in the UK from 2024 to 2025 split by month and quarter. It’s clear that the recent fall is a real fall not just a seasonal one. The biggest factor is likely to be fewer people reaching Europe, but recent harsher rules here may also be putting people off.

Britain’s population could start shrinking sooner than we think Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher 1/4

Far more people in medium-skilled jobs who came in 2023 were sponsored by employers whose license has been revoked than in 2022. This is particularly bad for temporary shortage list jobs. Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)

A good summary of the salary thresholds review yesterday: www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...

Recommendations (which the government may or may not accept): 1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700. 2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile. 3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL). 4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs. www.gov.uk/government/p...

I wrote this 18 months ago "Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from." ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...

Labour needs growth. But if it insists on preventing growth that might come from migration or Europe, something will have to give—perhaps their time in government, writes @benansell.bsky.social.

Few thoughts on the "Polish exodus" from the UK. 1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks. 2. Migration is really complicated. 3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure. 4. What you can do? THREAD 🧵

The new basic compliance assessment rules seem to be having a bigger than expected impact too. For most of 2025, student visa applications were 8% higher than 2024. But figures for November 2025 are 14% lower than November 2024. Not the biggest month but points to a smaller January intake next year.

The restrictions on work visa rules brought in in July are cutting immigration much more than predicted. Dependant numbers remain higher, but will fall over time as most will be dependants of immigrants already here.

The number of people crossing the Channel by small boat following the government's announcement of draconian rules for refugees. Not sure if this is just a coincidence but the announcement was made 17th November and the last crossing was 14th November.

Why are my figures suggesting net migration will be negative in 2026 and 2027? Two reasons: 1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25. 2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.

Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart

Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last). Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.

📉 The ONS has published stats that say net migration to UK drops 69% year on year 🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.

The scary thing is that the model I used in the article gave a figure of 323,000 because I didn’t know about the increased emigration of British nationals. Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off. I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.

New govt settlement plans are tougher than most voters prefer. Half say graduate-level migrants should qualify within 5 years; 53% want mid-skilled to wait under 10 years. Only 21% back a 15-year wait for low-skilled workers—many think it should be 5 years or less.

Labour really has a problem understanding that immigrants are people; and people plan their lives according to the rules that apply to them. You cannot just change the rules retrospectively, and you definitely cannot do so and claim you're doing it in the name of fairness.

Today's immigration statistics (at 930) will likely show a further steep fall. @jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

Net migration figures for year ending June 2025 come out tomorrow. I’m expecting roughly 250,000 but remember this is before any of the immigration restrictions in the White Paper and before the emigration of graduate visa holders peaks. So net migration will fall far further than this.

Even if they reward top talent or new applicants from abroad with faster settlement times, why should they trust the immigration system when the goalposts can be moved at any time? It’s the precedent being set that makes the UK a very bad option for anyone outside looking in.

The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.

The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.

Why the Home Office’s “earned settlement” proposals are anti-women 1. ⁠Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.

Data for high skilled workers entering on a skilled worker visa on pay year ending June 2023. It’s likely they will have had a pay rise since but still looks like a sizeable minority will be pushed onto the 10 year route. Especially engineers, vets, graphic designers and web designers. (1/2)

These comments by @danielsohege.bsky.social are unfortunately pitch-perfect. The idea that the UK is the Chocolate Factory and that there aren't other countries out there in dire need of nurses, doctors, teachers, carers, and so forth is delusional - and it's going to be too late when people realise

NHS transitioning from becoming a destination workplace to becoming the largest finishing school for the health systems of Aus, Canada, NZ, the gulf states...

Does anyone know if time as a student or on the graduate visa will count towards the time required to obtain citizenship under the new rules?

To qualify for ILR in 5 years you’ll need work in a graduate level job and either earn over £50,270 or be in a named public sector job (eg doctor, nurse, teacher). £125,140 qualifies you in 3 years. Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.