65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to international migration. Births—another driver of population growth—have declined over the same period.

Five years on: Hong Kong migrants to the UK under the HK BN(O) visa scheme. Findings from our @ukri.org funded survey,led by Tak Wing Chan (UCL), with me, @msumption.bsky.social @benbrindle.bsky.social Wed, 2pm, at UCL Register here: www.eventbrite.com/e/hong-kong-...

@mark-heath.bsky.social Will you be skiing at the 2030 Olympics?

Around 185,000 Hong Kongers have come to the UK since 2021, after the BNO visa was created. Join us on the 11th of February to find out how Hong Kongers are adapting to life in the UK. Register here 👇 www.eventbrite.com/e/hong-kong-...

Good to see some very good articles pointing out that AI won't only take jobs, but will change and create jobs, too. We see that in academic papers - including by the excellent Daron Acemoglu, mentioned in this piece. www.ft.com/content/d8e0...

"For BN(O)s the help which has been most needed is in securing work which matches skills." ✍️ @heather-rolfe.bsky.social looks at the lessons that can be learned from the Hong Kong BN(O) visa scheme 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/lessons-from...

Not sure what to make of it all? Our briefing on net migration is a great place to start getting to grips with the big changes in migration to and from the UK in recent years. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

Special dispensation for foreign prison officers who, it was widely reported last year, faced being unable to renew their work visas www.poauk.org.uk/news-events/...

It's that time when I tell anybody who will listen my favourite things from 2025. First up, my favourite albums... Geese - Getting Killed Horsegirl - Phonetics On and On Viagra Boys - viagr aboys Heartworms - Glutton for Punishment Smerz - Big city life LCD Soundsystem was my live music highlight

The Migration Advisory Committee has recommended that the government reduce occupation-specific thresholds for Skilled Workers. Here's why, in 3 posts...

The high court has told the Home Office the move on period for people granted refugee status should be 56 days (rather than 28) for those at risk of becoming homeless

The Migration Advisory Committee has released its 2025 annual report. The report looks at the impact of migration on the UK's public finances, Overseas Domestic Workers, and migrants' English language abilities. Here are three things they found 👇

Busy day for the MAC, who have also reviewed work visa salary requirements. They recommend the general salary threshold remains at £41.7k, but also say it would be fine to lower the occ-specific going rate from the median earnings to the 25th pctl. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69413d...

What is the potential impact of the proposed reforms to the UK's asylum system? Some measures, like restricting family reunion, may plausibly deter some people from coming to the UK. Yet the evidence is mixed, and insufficient to say whether any effects will be particularly large.

New episode of the TDTM podcast just dropped, featuring migration statistics oracle and all-round inspiration Madeleine Sumption from Oxford's @migobs.bsky.social 🔊 Listen to the full episode now on Spotify ⬇️ or Apple Podcasts open.spotify.com/episode/2Buv...

Tim Harford and Christmas is always a great mix. I don't wrap the presents in my house, although I maintain that's because if it's not a conveniently shaped gift it will be wrapped with so much tape the gift won't be opened until next Christmas...

Hot off the press! The latest Migration Observatory press release about today's migration statistics is out and you can read it below. Spoiler alert, massive fall in net migration. Immigration falls in all main categories except asylum: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/net-mi...

🔃 "For public policy reasons and Treasury planning, it would be much better if we knew something about these citizen-emigrants." ✍️ @jsm27.bsky.social makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving and returning to the UK ukandeu.ac.uk/who-is-emigr...

International student levy on British universities confirmed in Budget 2025 documents www.gov.uk/government/p...

somehow this too is about the budget

The qualifying period to settlement will be increased to a baseline of 10 years. These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied

The UK government's proposals on changes to settlement (indefinite leave to remain) rules have now been published in a consultation paper, ahead of a statement from the Home Secretary to MPs shortly www.gov.uk/government/c...

Does this mean more Brits are leaving the UK now than before the pandemic? In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.

In the 2010s, net migration was around 250k to 350k each year. Under today's revised estimates, net migration in 2024 (345k) was a lot closer to pre-Brexit levels, although still at the higher end. But a further fall is likely in next week's migration stats, for the year ending June 2025.

At the moment, asylum seekers can work if they've been waiting more than 12 months for their claim to be processed, but only in middle-skill or graduate level jobs in shortage Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work

We estimate the number of non-EU citizens with ILR is likely to be between 620k and 820k More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary

Phenomenal series. Phenomenal finale #celebritytraitors

The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice? I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.

The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice? I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.

We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning. New FOI data sheds light on that.

New monthly visa data: ➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs ➤Student visa applications similar to last year ➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase

Pride of Anglia #itfc

Norwich fans everywhere sounding like a cabinet minister in an unpopular government on the eve of local elections, playing down expectations. Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc

Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits. A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.

Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits. A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.

Do you have a lot of annoying admin tasks or household chores you need to accomplish, but never seem to find the time for? Then may I suggest: setting aside a day to do nothing but write, you will be amazed at how many such tasks you can accomplish.

Good question at Home Office questions from @lisasmartmp.bsky.social on the move-on period for refugees, after the part suspension of the pilot giving 56 days instead of 28. The Home Secretary said they were following the evidence of what works - but the evaluation of the pilot is still underway.

@mark-heath.bsky.social @alexnljones.bsky.social The listeners have decided – Heineken is poor, but then so is Corona Get some IPAs in the rotation!

The government has announced key changes to its refugee family reunion policy. Our Q&A explains what’s changed, who’s affected, the possible consequences, and how the UK compares with other countries in Europe. Read more 👇 migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

I'm biased, but our new Q&A on housing for asylum seekers and refugees is an incredibly interesting read. In the Q&A, we cover the following:

Terrible news. I'd never say this to his face, but Melvyn's dulcet tones have helped me get off to sleep more times than I can count

65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration. See our updated population growth briefing for more.

@gralefrit.bsky.social You have to see these! A friend of mine has been collating a series of images entitled "Things my students have written turned into Philomena Cunk quotes" and they're just glorious.

What I found most interesting when writing this update was the increased number of students moving to graduate visas, likely a result of more restrictive Skilled Worker criteria. Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.

1. Labour market continues to cool. Payroll employment trending down & vacancies falling for 37th month in a row. Not going off a cliff, but definite downward trend. Average pay growth easing. But at 5% (ex bonuses) still above level consistent with inflation target, given weak productivity growth.

This is a really interesting thread on public attitudes towards migration.

Incredible bit of business from Town. He's too good for the Championship, even with the concerns about his fitness. I'm trying not to but can't help feel very confident about our prospects this season #itfc

At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%). New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.

I’ve always wondered how employers & workers split the cost of UK immigration fees Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables) www.gov.uk/government/p...

At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%). New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.