At the moment, asylum seekers can work if they've been waiting more than 12 months for their claim to be processed, but only in middle-skill or graduate level jobs in shortage Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work

We estimate the number of non-EU citizens with ILR is likely to be between 620k and 820k More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary

Phenomenal series. Phenomenal finale #celebritytraitors

The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice? I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.

The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice? I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.

We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning. New FOI data sheds light on that.

New monthly visa data: ➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs ➤Student visa applications similar to last year ➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase

Pride of Anglia #itfc

Norwich fans everywhere sounding like a cabinet minister in an unpopular government on the eve of local elections, playing down expectations. Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc

Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits. A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.

Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits. A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.

Do you have a lot of annoying admin tasks or household chores you need to accomplish, but never seem to find the time for? Then may I suggest: setting aside a day to do nothing but write, you will be amazed at how many such tasks you can accomplish.

Good question at Home Office questions from @lisasmartmp.bsky.social on the move-on period for refugees, after the part suspension of the pilot giving 56 days instead of 28. The Home Secretary said they were following the evidence of what works - but the evaluation of the pilot is still underway.

@mark-heath.bsky.social @alexnljones.bsky.social The listeners have decided – Heineken is poor, but then so is Corona Get some IPAs in the rotation!

The government has announced key changes to its refugee family reunion policy. Our Q&A explains what’s changed, who’s affected, the possible consequences, and how the UK compares with other countries in Europe. Read more 👇 migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

I'm biased, but our new Q&A on housing for asylum seekers and refugees is an incredibly interesting read. In the Q&A, we cover the following:

Terrible news. I'd never say this to his face, but Melvyn's dulcet tones have helped me get off to sleep more times than I can count

65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration. See our updated population growth briefing for more.

@gralefrit.bsky.social You have to see these! A friend of mine has been collating a series of images entitled "Things my students have written turned into Philomena Cunk quotes" and they're just glorious.

What I found most interesting when writing this update was the increased number of students moving to graduate visas, likely a result of more restrictive Skilled Worker criteria. Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.

1. Labour market continues to cool. Payroll employment trending down & vacancies falling for 37th month in a row. Not going off a cliff, but definite downward trend. Average pay growth easing. But at 5% (ex bonuses) still above level consistent with inflation target, given weak productivity growth.

This is a really interesting thread on public attitudes towards migration.

Incredible bit of business from Town. He's too good for the Championship, even with the concerns about his fitness. I'm trying not to but can't help feel very confident about our prospects this season #itfc

At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%). New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.

I’ve always wondered how employers & workers split the cost of UK immigration fees Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables) www.gov.uk/government/p...

At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%). New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.

Over 180,000 Hong Kongers have moved to the UK on a BNO visa since 2021. In this piece for the UK Data Service, I look at their labour market outcomes since arriving, using the new HKBNO panel survey.

Non-EU employees newly entering the workforce under the post-Brexit immigration system appear to have broadly similar earnings compared to those entering before Brexit. Why? Three potential reasons:

Care work is now closed to overseas recruitment. Will UK employers hire more international students instead? Little known fact: former international students are actually already a major source of recruitment in UK care, and this can in theory continue until 2028 (link to our analysis in reply)

CHLOE KELLY

From today, 111 jobs will no longer qualify for Skilled Worker visas, but a sizable number will still be able to recruit migrants. In fact, of the 26,900 people who were granted a Skilled Worker visa between October and March, 76% were for jobs that will remain eligible.

I have no idea how we've gone through there. Oh well. Bring on the semis

This is really interesting on English language proficiency (Census analysis) and provision (from FoIs). Worth a read. Note the Adult Skills Fund has halved in size since 2010 (now £1.4bn), so ESOL must be a higher proportion of the total than in the early 2010s.

Who will be able to apply to come from France to the UK under the "one-for-one" deal agreed in principle last week? The Home Secretary's response today:

BBC Two is repeating Live Aid and there’s a disclaimer not to donate to the number onscreen given throughout the show. Live Aid was on 40 years ago.

I spoke to Full Fact about whether different nationalities are more likely to be in prison. Some probably are, but we don't have the data we need to calculate it. Plus any differences we do see will also reflect differences in other characteristics, such as age and income.

With the government closing the care route to overseas recruitment later this month, international students are likely to be one of the largest sources of workers for social care providers. In fact, new FOI data show they already are. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

From 22 July, 111 jobs will no longer qualify for Skilled Worker visas, but a sizable number will still be able to recruit migrants. In fact, of the 26,900 people who got a Skilled Worker visa between October and March, 76% were for jobs that will remain eligible.

It’s fair enough to count care workers as ineligible when looking at visas for entry I think but as eligible for people switching from a student visa or the graduate visa.

From 22 July, 111 jobs will no longer qualify for Skilled Worker visas, but a sizable number will still be able to recruit migrants. In fact, of the 26,900 people who got a Skilled Worker visa between October and March, 76% were for jobs that will remain eligible.

Statement of changes now released: www.gov.uk/government/p... Care worker route closed, effective immediately. Sector can continue to recruit migrant workers to the route until July 2028 as long as they are in the UK already.

@alexnljones.bsky.social While I agree with the comment somebody made on your blog re the first game vs. Birmingham, I'm sure Sunderland fans thought the same 2 seasons ago. So, personally, I'm a little worried that it could be a banana skin... ... or maybe I'm just so used to us losing now! #itfc

"Changes to the Early Removal Scheme will mean prisoners with no right to be in the country will face deportation 30% into their prison term rather than the current 50%" (no further prison time once deported, the press release does not add) www.gov.uk/government/n...

UK net migration fell sharply in 2024, from the unusually high levels seen in recent years. Want to know what drove the fall and what might happen to net migration in the years ahead? We've got you covered in our updated briefing. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

Baroness Lister's private members' bill on the move-on period for refugees has its committee stage in the House of Lords this afternoon. It seeks to make the extension to 56 days permanent and that vital documentation is sent at the start of the process. bills.parliament.uk/bills/3758/p...

How much should Brits and settled migrants earn before they can bring partners and children to the UK? According to the MAC, that depends on what the aim of the threshold is. More info in this v short thread 👇

This is a great opportunity! I wish this internship had been available during my PhD.

In last month's white paper, the government said the standard route to settlement will change from five years to ten. Our new commentary looks at how many people could be covered by the changes and their potential impact on migrants. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

Me, every morning at 6am from April to August:

Two reasons why any future decline would be smaller than what we see in today's figures (a fall of 430,000): 1. Net migration is lower now, and it's easier to cut migration when migration is high! 2. Labour have proposed a range of small/medium measures, rather than big changes in visa rules.