This is a really interesting new paper. It's modelling, and has a lot of assumptions, but some very compelling broad-sweep estimates. It suggests that decarbonisation-related workforce demand will not be met, and that this will have a material -enormous- impact on emissions trajectories.

🆕 RFBerlin Discussion Paper: Christian Dustmann, Sebastian Otten, Uta Schönberg and Jan Stuhler provide an empirical framework to decompose the regional effects of immigration on labor markets. A thread 🧵 below 👇

One manifestation of Labour’s “everything is polling” approach to government is that they visibly think of policy not in departmental solos but in issue polling silos. Your immigration choices and your levies on business are the same picture!

Fascinating update on Kenyan labour export efforts- 'In September 2025, a high-level Kenyan delegation... embarked on a strategic mission across eight Canadian provinces' to discuss labour migration partnerships. Note Kenya has a stated aim of sending 1m workers overseas per year until 2028.

Woah- this is outside my normal field of vision, but the expulsion of 770,000 migrants from Russia would have big consequences. Most are from Central Asia- and some of these countries are highly reliant on remittance flows from Russia.

Interesting FT piece on import of Chinese 'green' workers into Europe- 'To build the [battery] plant CATL has told local officials it will bring in a total of 2,000 of its own workers on a rotating basis' into Spain. But are they due to lack of skills, or to prevent knowledge transfer? Gift link-

A good summary of the domestic vs. international recruitment tradeoff in a new @ciob.bsky.social report- here focused on the construction sector, but relevant to policy-driven decarbonisation labour demand. Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.

A striking chart: in 2021 (the last census), there were roughly as many workers leaving UK clean energy industries due to retirement *each year* as there were *in total* aged under 25 in the sector. www.standardlife.co.uk/centre-for-t...

Eye-catching report on how migrants will be essential to plug widening green skills gaps in many of the world's cities. www.businessgreen.com/news/4519631...

This is a great little blog. The third point, on 'Immigration as an Industrial Strategy' ('not just using immigration to fill labor gaps, but using it strategically to catalyze new industries') is very relevant to current discussions around workforce for the green transition.

Investments into Denmark's green transition are worryingly tailing off. Nonetheless, the country is warned to face major labour shortages.

Australia announces (in its new National Adaptation Plan) that it will be creating 'a specific policy need around the planned relocation of whole communities'. www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-chan...

To my surprise, the World Bank's recent 139-page report on 'Making Refugee Self-Reliance Work' doesn't mention the word 'climate' once... Given the contexts of many refugee-hosting countries, self-reliance initiatives that don't take climate into account are likely to under-perform.

Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team @katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk doi.org/10.31235/osf...

This kind of thing is where Scott Barrett's idea of climate-targeted trade agreements is really interesting. If you can get people to agree they will only trade steel at this technology standard, and reassure them that they will only need to do this if everyone else does, you're getting somewhere.

Australia: Decarbonisation 'risks being undermined by "overlooked" skills shortages, with a predicted shortfall of 42,000 trade workers next decade... Electrical training 'has fallen by about 40 per cent over the last decade', with a current shortage of 22,000 apprentices (40% increase).

Good news on India's domestic solar installation, especially in the context of the US tariffs- in 2023 and 2024 more than 97% of India's solar PV exports went to the US. Growing domestic demand is now more crucial than ever. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/c... ieefa.org/resources/in...

'Climate-induced redistribution of people is not inevitable'- a good new article by a fair who's who in climate/migration research. Key points: 1) hard limits to habitability should not be declared without context-specific assessments; 2) model-based projections do not show inevitable futures;

US renewable investment is down 36 percent this year, while in Europe it's up 63 percent (from the @heatmap.news morning newsletter)

17 African countries have more off-grid diesel generation capacity than they have on-grid power plant capacity. Many of them are now bringing in solar panels at a staggering new rate. These will displace high-carbon energy sources- a fantastic accelerating trend.

Good summary of striking new research (below). In Germany, 'the energy transition will require approximately 157,000 additional workers by 2030 and 102,000 by 2040.' Plus 40,000 more by 2030 for adaptation. Currently, finding qualified workers in key sectors takes an average of over 100 days.

Ireland wants to build its wind project pipeline, but lacks workers: 'Around 2,800 FTE jobs a year will be created delivering Ireland’s capacity targets to 2030... In the short term though there is a domestic skills gap, so many of the workers needed to deliver 5GW by 2030 will come from abroad.'

Fijian workers in Australia send home Fi$2,010 (~US$1,000) per month. Fiji's Minister of Employment to migrants: “This is your opportunity to transform your family’s struggles into success. The choices you make today will affect not only your future but also the future of your loved ones.”

Interesting to see some proactive policy sharing on planned relocation between Bangladesh and Fiji.

'Others question whether the UK can realistically double its solar capacity in just five years, as the government intends. Developers have warned of grid bottlenecks, local opposition to huge solar farms and international competition for skilled workers and equipment.'

The Guardian’s view on the construction workforce: ‘If hugely ambitious Westminster targets are to be met, foreign workers and new native talent will both be required (a home truth that the government is depressingly reluctant to acknowledge).’

An interesting summary of the solar skill situation in India: • Hiring is rocketing • Skill requirements rising fast • Salaries have multiplied (now level w/ IT) • Qualified workers regionally concentrated, often not where jobs are • Suryamitra programme praised, but out of sync with industry needs

Skills England has a new publication out on demand for key skills from 2025 to 2030. It considers only new demand- no consideration of retirements- & doesn't project shortages. 'Employment... is projected to need to increase the fastest in Clean Energy Industries (77%) and Housebuilding (42%).'

How to use labor migration policy to support UK industrial goals ⬇️🌱 1. Use visa discretion 2. Facilitate int'l recruitment for SMEs 3. Develop bilateral partnerships 4. Use the Displaced Talent visa More from @helen-dempster.bsky.social & @samhuckstep.bsky.social: www.cgdev.org/publication/...

It's great to see discussions of managed retreat / planned relocation becoming more visible, especially when discussed far ahead of any potential action. There's a good article in today's FT about the future of high-income beach communities with some lines relevant to many more contexts.

Interesting report on the MAC's approach to the Temporary Shortage List- 'Up to 60 other non-graduate occupations... crucial to Labour’s industrial strategy & maintaining Britain’s critical infrastructure will temporarily escape this ban, [if] they come up with plans to train Britons for the jobs.'

🚨New policy note! 🚨- by myself and @helen-dempster.bsky.social. In short: The UK's (green) industrial policy needs migration for it to succeed. The UK government's recent migration policy flip-flopping harms investment certainty, and is the result of incoherency between policy areas.

Fragomen: 'Immigration policy is no longer a peripheral issue; it is core to the wind sector’s delivery capability. The UK has a narrow opportunity to position itself competitively. If industry voices do not engage now, skills shortages will delay deployment and undermine investment.'

Good new article by Giulia Bettin et al.: 'Responding to natural disasters: What do monthly remittance data tell us?' 'We find that monthly remittances positively respond to natural disasters in migrants’ home countries. The response is immediate and significant up to 3–4 months after the event...

Interesting, Hungary has such a big guest worker thing going on that the 'Daily News Hungary' site has a full guestworker series with an article every few days!

The remittance tax in the "Big, Beautiful Bill" is down to 1%, but countries of origin still stand to lose billions of dollars every year, especially because the tax now also applies to US citizens. New @cgdev.org blog w/ @samhuckstep.bsky.social & Charley Ward 👇 www.cgdev.org/blog/even-1-...

It was a pleasure to contribute to Migration Policy Practice, @iom.int's short-form policy journal. My article, with Jonathan Beynon, sets out when, how, and why remittances could be classified as mobilised private climate finance.

The remittances tax in the US' One Big, Beautiful Bill has dropped from a 3.5% rate to 1% (but has also expanded to cover non-citizens as well). Which low-/middle-income countries benefit most? Mexico the clear winner, but welcome news for several. public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...

I'm looking forward to speaking at a @carnegieendowment.org event next Wednesday, on remittances and climate adaptation. How should remittances fit into the climate finance puzzle? What’s the outlook for flows in 2025? How can remittances' effectiveness be maximised? Please do join! 2pm EDT.

Across Europe, looming skills crises threaten economic growth. Reskilling of European workers is key, but there is also a role for labour migration. NEW report: Kate Hooper, @proftesseltje.bsky.social & @jasmijnslootjes.bsky.social outline ways the EU can make labour mobility policy more effective

Advanced economies now account for the vast majority of industrial policy announcements (a deviation from the historical norm). They are targeting areas in which they already have competitive advantage (another deviation). This very interesting article tracks the distribution of IP announcements.

The UK's new Industrial Strategy: 'Every department has a critical growth role: areas from... clean energy deployment [to] migration... are now linked to our Industrial Strategy and critical to how we deliver it.' Really curious how HMG thinks its Immig. White Paper coheres, given skill gaps.

🚨🚨🚨Blockbuster paper out today! Bear with me as I explain why this one is so important. 🤔 The *economic* anger about immigration is based on the false notion that immigrants take jobs or lower wages. A major misunderstanding behind this view is that immigrants only increase the supply of labor.

2025 is the year donors set their aid agendas alight. In a new @cgdev.org blog, @leecrawfurd.bsky.social, Sara Casadevall Bellés, Laura Granito, and I project bilateral cuts forward to 2026. We ask: How much are donors cutting? Which recipient countries are most affected? What does this mean?

A really interesting and helpful article. When aid to a refugee camp gets cut/is volatile: 1) Hunger gets worse, especially if disbursement of remaining aid is delayed; 2) The informal credit system collapses; 3) Food prices fall with reduced demand, partly mitigating the aid cut shock

Interesting article calling again for the UK to use its Exchange Equalisation Account to lend at low rates to IMF/IDA: 'Since Black Wednesday in 1992, the £150bn fund has largely idled in short-term securities...

Interesting stuff in Pakistan's 2024-2025 Economic Survey on skill development, migration, and the green transition.

Both the US and the UK have big manufacturing and energy targets, steered by government policy. But both lack the workers needed domestically. Despite this, 'neither government is actively looking at the one way you can get new people quickly – increased immigration.'

This is a great blog. The problem goes beyond engineers. Roofers, electricians, plumbers- many of the occupations needed to decarbonise won't have enough workers available in the timeframe required. We think a coupling of training and labour migration is key. (In addition to domestic training.)