Good question from Blake Stephenson and one that had been annoying me Looks like ICBs will be reorganised *again* when (or if) the government goes ahead with creating mayoral strategic authorities across the entire country

A colleague pointed out this @thetimes.com chart to me. Doctor numbers declining since ~2021 looks very wrong. Difficult to know what the ONS data in the source is... Anyone got any ideas what this might be referring to?

"In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limits." www.computerworld.com/article/4059...

We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at the government's ambitious plans for public sector productivity. If productivity growth disappoints, the govt will have to choose between worse public service performance than planned or topping up budgets

This is rapidly turning into my favourite genre of news article: Reform councillors having to admit that running a local authority is much harder than they claimed it would be and that there aren't any magic savings that only they are smart enough to uncover www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

The government is taking the right approach to sentencing reform It must resist pressure to water down its proposals, says @cassiarowland.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gove...

Sign up to watch this event tomorrow either in person or online We'll be getting into depth on how the govt intends to use financial flows to shift activity and behaviour in the NHS

EVENT | ⏰ Join us tomorrow ⏰ How can changes to NHS incentives help deliver the 10 Year Health Plan? With Ross Carroll @novartis.bsky.social @sallygainsbury.bsky.social, Anita Charlesworth, Hardev Virdee, @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/nhs-in...

This is an unbelievable stat from Amber The children's care market is completely broken

New NAO report finds the cost of a place in a children's care home has nearly doubled in 5 years. The biggest private providers make average annual profits of 22.6%, many backed by private equity. And many children aren't getting what they need, placed far from home, in unlawful settings

Angela Rayner's resignation on Friday means that a contest to replace her as deputy leader of the Labour Party has started. Read my first explainer at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk to find out how the process will work, who is running, and when will we find out who Rayner's successor will be!

I just don't understand what a patient is supposed to take away from Streeting's NHS league tables If I'm e.g. a resident in Barnsley trying to decide where to get a hip replacement, what on earth can I learn from the fact that Barnsley FT has a score of 2.31? What does that mean!?

You know the govt's "landmark NHS league tables" are next to useless when North Bristol trust could be ranked anywhere between 11th and 107th "best" performing trust in the country

Those confidence intervals in full!

A lower profile reshuffle victim was Jim McMahon, minister for local govt in MHCLG It was a really odd decision to me. McMahon was driving lots of important reform programmes More from me in the IfG reshuffle blog below 👇 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/st...

What happened with ministerial changes over the weekend? @instituteforgovernment.org.uk has kept an eye on it - there are *62* ministers in new roles, meaning around half the government are in a new role today Keep an eye on our analysis here: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/st...

As the second reshuffle of the week kicks off, we have launched our liveblog. We will be covering all the ins and outs as well as top analysis from our IfG experts. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/st...

Good to be quoted in this piece. Reform's "DOGE" has been a complete bust, high on rhetoric and low on meaningful change Reform's councillors have worked out that their councils' finances are not going to be fixed by cancelling a few "DEI" programmes www.ft.com/content/fd85...

We may find out today whether Sir Laurie Magnus concludes that Angela Rayner has broken the ministerial code. But what happens then? While this is a big test of Labour's bolstered ethics system, ultimately these things are all about the politics: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/ange...

Great analysis from Tilda here: London looks to be particularly vulnerable to restrictions in overseas staff working in adult social care And despite ending the visa route in July, the government has yet to announce when it plans to implement Fair Pay Agreements or if they will be fully funded

There are concerns about a lack of joined-up thinking. @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social says: "It was extremely risky to further restrict overseas recruitment without being able to immediately replace it with a scheme to boost domestic recruitment” www.politicshome.com/news/article...

@matildamartin.bsky.social's latest data dive finds London councils stand to be most impacted by the closure of the social care visa Axing it without an immediate scheme to boost domestic recruitment was "extremely risky" — IfG's @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social www.politicshome.com/news/article...

NEW @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report just out - on how the fast stream, the civil service’s flagship talent development programme, lost its sense of purpose and how it can get it back (A quick 🧵)

Wait, so you’re telling me Reform’s DOGE unit *hasn’t* solved the crisis in local government finance? I for one am shocked www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I am really very certain - having also seen 4 iterations of No.10 while working in the Cabinet Office - that adding more people to the centre of government is not the solution here. If the shake-up is on, it better be a proper one.

The govt's commitment to adult social care reform procrastination is truly impressive. First it commissioned Louise Casey to publish a review in 2028, then it decided she should first review grooming gangs, and now it is considering appointing her to a full time role in No.10

Re. Farage's £ figures in announcement today on asylum plans, this is not a big money saver for govt. HO's total managed expenditure (for police, asylum, national security etc) in 24/25 was £22.5bn. That's a lot but £8bn less than e.g. DfT and 1/13th of what DWP spends. 1/7

Next Weds, I'm chairing a Freedom of Info anniversary event @instituteforgovernment.org.uk with a great line-up: @jennacorderoy.bsky.social @itscrowbot.bsky.social @benworthy.bsky.social @lynnwyeth.bsky.social John Edwards & Lord Falconer Join us! www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/foi-ac...

NEW REPORT: how does where you live and your background affect how you do at school? - Inequalities have widened around the country and between groups of children since the pandemic - Progress depends on sharing what works to support disadvantaged pupils & cutting high absence 🧵👇

The govt aims to break the link between a child’s background and their future success as part of its opportunity mission. But it needs to understand how educational outcomes have changed. Our Performance Tracker Local explores this across England www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Are we doing the "do ministers need to be MPs" debate again? No, of course they don't - and many governments do bring in experts/big hitters by putting people in the Lords. But getting rid of the MP link across all of cabinet would be a huge change - and may not have the effects people want...

Every story since the local elections is Reform learning that governing is harder than making populist soundbites. So far: - "DOGE" has flatly failed to find wasteful spending - admitted that immigration is needed for social care - admitted they can't cut council tax www.politico.eu/article/nige...

I wonder how many times right wing think tanks can write the same report about the NHS Seems we haven't reached the limit yet 200 pages to make the most boring (and worse, useless) set of policy recommendations

Policy exchange, backed by Sajid Javid, think we need to switch the NHS funding model to social insurance, and introduce new charges for NHS services, like to see a GP policyexchange.org.uk/publication/... These are not new ideas, but they are bad ideas A thread with some evidence

Current UK government policy on AI is like: "the CEO of oreos says they're as important as oxygen so we'll take billions of pounds worth of oreos and force them into every public service"

This is great Fascinating how this interacts with UK govt policy: politicians parrot tech and VCs' marketing spiel, rely on magical AI thinking when planning reforms, and then waste £bns forcing this stuff on services and citizens If it blows up as Ed suggests, govt will have a lot to answer for

The original pensions commission is the single most effective independent inquiry of the last few decades. @jillongovt.bsky.social @gemmatetlow.bsky.social and I have written on what the new pensions commission announced this week can learn from the original

In its 10 Year Health Plan, the government recommitted to halving the gap in healthy life expectancy (HLE) between the poorest and richest regions. But how? Our new analysis with the ONS points to the underlying factors which any plan will need to take account of. 🧵

We at @instituteforgovernment.org.uk have coordinated a letter in @thetimes.com today in which numerous individuals and organisations call on the government to withdraw its mistaken rules which are having a serious chilling effect on civil servants speaking in public…

Story tonight about our joint open letter to The Times We’re calling for the guidance that is preventing civil servants from participating in public and stakeholder events to be withdrawn www.thetimes.com/article/2e4f...

The OBR identify crypto ownership as a "new fiscal risk", with ~1 in 8 people owning them in 2024 I hadn't thought about this, but because there is no stamp duty on purchase (as there is for shares) it means that there is a reduction in tax revenue when people substitute out of shares into crypto

This is really bad news for the govt. The last resident doctors' strike led to ~1.25 million cancelled elective appointments in hospitals and severely hurt elective performance Trust finances are also stretched so far that a higher pay deal within the existing settlement will be very difficult

Good write up of the 10 year plan from Nick Timmins: - A lot of existing policy. But that's good: things like integration are laudable aims - Focus on tech is welcome, but dependent on limited capital budgets - Social care still needs addressing www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/nhs-...

So good to see this announcement, it could be a genuinely transformative programme But also depressing that good policy now is just reversing the damage of the last 15 years www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

The Labour government’s most prominent commitment on health is to get waiting times back to 18 weeks by the end of the Parliament. Are they on track? We looked at this for last night’s Peston show youtu.be/yc-9Psk3gk8?... 🧵

I really like the sound of the Total Place-style pooled budget pilots that Angela Rayner announced today. Little detail provided so far but potentially huge. This is how @instituteforgovernment.org.uk think Total Place pilots should work: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Fascinating to watch people in these "DOGE" units - including Reform's in Kent County Council - go into government and realise that the public sector is nowhere near as inefficient as they'd lazily believed www.npr.org/2025/06/02/n...

NEW REPORT: how does access to adult social care vary across time and around England? We show: - Fewer adults receive care than 20 years ago - There is wide range in access between councils Some of that is for good reason, but some not 🧵👇 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Another Zia Yusuf tweet that shows a lack of understanding of how local govt works 1) Kent is not responsible for appointing auditors. Fees are set and auditors appointed by a body call Public Sector Audit Appointments (PSAA)

It's the morning after the SR and I can't help but think what a missed opportunity it was for public services. There's plenty in there that I like and could make a difference over time but the solutions are orders of magnitude smaller than the problems 🧵