NEW from me on why changes to public sector pensions should be on the table. But politicians must say how they'll cover big upfront costs, and focus on how remuneration can best support the workforce needed to improve public services - not on cuts www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/publ...

For context, we’re only 13% of the way between this year’s election and the election in 2029

It looks like Reform has lost *another* councillor at Kent County Council. Isabella Kemp now sits as an Independent, according to the council website. Means that Kent has lost ***16%*** of its Reform councillors since May👀 www.politicshome.com/news/article...

NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.

Good to be quoted in this piece Reform's promises to cut council spending were always unrealistic and showed no understanding of what local government does or how it's funded The fact that they now can only point to tiny savings, shows how little they've achieved www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Rachel Reeves has pledged to do what is necessary to protect public services "from a return to austerity". So how are public services performing? The first instalments of Performance Tracker 2025 explore local govt services and criminal justice www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Reform has lost 1 in 20 (5%) of the 677 councillors it gained in May elections In Kent alone, it has lost 14% of its councillors... -11 have been expelled -6 suspended -9 have left the party -1 has defected to UKIP -9 have resigned from the council altogether www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Reform UK councils (& their cllrs) have been in the news a lot in recent weeks. But what is happening more widely? My analysis @politicshome.bsky.social has found Reform has lost more than 5% of the cllrs it elected just 6 months ago www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Can't pass judgement on most of this, but the estimated savings in the NHS of £11bn are incredibly dubious and the proposed shift to a social insurance model is an infuriating zombie idea that is not supported by evidence Some thoughts on the NHS proposals in this paper...

I absolute love the idea of a 'Medium Term Planning Framework' being the most ambitous anything. Really hope they try to better this with 'Short Term Guidance Note puts Beveridge in the shade'

Quite a bold claim from the NHS, given that it published its 10 year health plan just a few months ago

Shropshire council says they need "urgent exceptional financial support" to avoid going "bust" this year That would make a record 29 councils needing emergency funding this year www.lgcplus.com/finance/unit...

There's been a question about what happens to debt when district councils and county councils merge Looks like Woking will have £500m of its debt written off Still means a lot of debt will go to the new council: Woking had £2.2bn in March this year www.themj.co.uk/woking-500m-...

Streeting wants integrated care boards (ICBs) to cut staff by half, but hasn't given them enough money to do so "many ICBs have called off redundancy programmes because they cannot meet the costs without overspending [their] budgets" Such a well planned process www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

New @instituteforgovernment.org.uk comment from me The chaos surrounding the grooming gangs inquiry last week highlights much deeper problems with the way the government sets up public inquiries www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/groo...

Reform-led Worcestershire County Council (WCC) have published a briefing about their financial position, explaining why they might have to raise council tax by 10% It's a pretty perfect encapsulation of the extreme financial pressures facing most local authorities Key points 👇

Reform can change the change the head of "DOGE" as many times as they want, they still won't be able to deliver the savings they promised residents www.lgcplus.com/finance/head...

NEW REPORT: adult social care is putting immense pressure on local authorities' budgets, but there's no real evidence of improved access Since 2016/17, spending on long-term care: ⬆️25% People receiving LT care: ⬆️1% What's going on? Findings from our new report on adult social care🧵👇

... government is making good progress on difficult policy areas in local government... all welcome attempts to tackle tricky problems which, in many cases, the last government avoided. But there is a real risk that the median voter will never feel any benefit from these reforms... #r4today

NEW COMMENT: Alarm bells are ringing in local govt and a rising proportion of spending goes on very few services That should worry Labour. Rising council tax and worsening service performance fosters the sense that govt wastes money More from me 👇 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/fail...

This is a fantastic, in-depth look at how local authorities are performing, and the impact of austerity on local public services. One thing particularly stood out to me from the report - the benefit of stable, long-term political leadership in local authorities for maintaining performance...

All very amusing, but especially this: "The most popular was an “Australian-style points-based immigration system,” with a net 46 percent support. The least popular was “Britain’s current immigration policy,” with -39 percent support." www.politico.eu/article/labo...

"Adult social care factories." Local government used to fund youth clubs, libraries and Sure Start centres. But years of cuts have stripped it to the bone, as the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's Public Services Performance Tracker lays bare. My newsletter, out now.

4 patterns we're seeing in adult social care, children's social care and homelessness services (with graphs) And what govt should do about it A thread from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's NEW jumbo report (read 1 get 3 free) on the state of local government services and finance 👇

NEW REPORT: Local authorities have been struggling with pressures from austeirty for years, but there are signs that pressure is now particularly acute As a result, they are having to make tough decisions about finances and services 🧵👇 on findings www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

EXC: English councils will still be poorer in 2029 than they were in 2010, according to the IfG. Report finds councils are increasingly providing social care and little else. Libraries, youth services, parks, all falling by the wayside. www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

NEW: Part 1 of the brilliant @instituteforgovernment.org.uk Performance Tracker @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social & @amberdellar.bsky.social have dug deep into local government services & finances It’s.. gloomy As @theguardian.com @kiranstacey.bsky.social reports www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

NEW: @instituteforgovernment.org.uk have published pt1 of Public Services Performance Tracker 2025 covering local government finances and overall performance, adult social care, children's social care and homelessness Incredible work by @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social & @amberdellar.bsky.social

Good opportunity to bump our @instituteforgovernment.org.uk explainer on public inquiries. CO advising on whether to create an inquiry as well as on ToR reduces political impulse to create one just because it is the easiest immediate action to take. tinyurl.com/trfwv7z2

The point of a multi-year spending review and regular SR cycle is to provide stability. That stability allows frontline public services to make long-term decisions that will deliver better outcomes and VfM. It's a big failure of policymaking if spending decisions are being reopened 4 months later

Crazy stat of the day: the NHS now publishes the cost of delayed discharge from hospital. They estimate that it was ~£220m in September If that's a typical month, it means ~£2.6bn per year For comparison, the govt spent £2.8bn on the entire courts and tribunal system in 2024/25

On Tuesday @instituteforgovernment.org.uk will publish the first part of Performance Tracker 2025, our flagship annual stocktake of the state of public services We’re doing things slightly differently this year, so I thought I’d do a quick thread explaining some of the changes 🧵

Yep - and low level anti-social behaviour, fly tipping, street crime and so on persist and in some places ramp up. Completely agree that neighbourhood-level problems are a big driver of a more pervading sense of decline and dissatisfaction.

Agree and would add a lack of understanding about what level of govt does what- so often the things that pop up in MPs’ inboxes are things that are in the gift of the local council and not MPs! And equally, local councils are blamed for things that are the result of funding envelopes set centrally

I'm increasingly convinced this is a huge driver of dissatisfaction with govt Council tax is one of the most visible taxes that people pay, it goes directly out of their bank account and they get a letter about it going up every year Yet bin collection frequency falls and libraries close

On Kent's council tax rise: In June, @matildamartin.bsky.social found that some councils won by Reform spent nearly 80% of their 23-24 budget on social care & homelessness IfG @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social said Reform faces "the same brutal trade-offs" that other councils struggled w/ "for 15yrs"

So after promising to cut "wasteful spending" and council tax Reform has: - Found no waste and instead plans to cut invest-to-save schemes - Will now raise council tax by the full 5% - Realised they don't control asylum spending A staggering amount of failure in 5 months

Kent (now a Reform run council) is also doing this!

Not sure if other councils are doing this, but interesting that Lambeth is trying to increase residents' understanding of both *what* they actually spend money on and the really difficult budget choices in the next couple of years

People often claim it's a mistake to call far-right figures racist. But it's extremely telling how much they hate being called racist. Farage doesn't welcome it. He is afraid of it. And he has benefited from people's reticence about using it to describe his policies.

The Pride in Place strategy wants "communities" to choose how to spend money But local politicians already respond to what voters want I'd argue the below chart shows councillors chose to protect bin collections and fixing potholes over libraries because that's (broadly) what voters preferred

The govt published its strategy to revitalise local communities last week There is a heavy focus on directing funding to high streets and community spaces, which is part of the reason for declining "pride in place" But it seems misguided for a few reasons Short thread www.gov.uk/government/p...

In new @theifs.bsky.social work, we examine the fiscal challenge of the UK's commitment to higher defence spending. If met, for the first time in a long time health and defence spending would likely rise simultaneously (as a % of GDP). This would change the shape and/or size of the state.

They’re not on course to form the next gov. Today’s polling suggests they might win if there was an election today…

This type of language is utterly unacceptable. Two MPs have actually been murdered in the last decade. Using violent rhetoric like this isn't big or clever, it's dangerous and idiotic

This interview is so much worse than the headline lets on

Farage's soft underbelly exposed? 'Banks said if Reform won power it should introduce a “Big Reform Bill” to roll back current human rights laws as well as legislation underpinning corporate regulation, saying that when it came to regulators he wanted to “get rid of virtually everything”.'

Seems that the ONS data below is the Annual Population Survey The Office for Statistics Regulation suspended the accredited status of that data last year i.e. @thetimes.com chart is almost certainly wrong. The number of doctors working in the NHS increased since 2021, and they're ~80% of doctors

Special Delivery! @emma-conway.bsky.social and I have been thinking about how Keir Starmer and co (especially Darren Jones) can make a success of 'phase two' - which is all about delivering on the government's priorities. Read more here: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/star...

Read this article before reading any Tony Blair Institute report that proposes using AI in govt "Some TBI staff say cash [from Oracle] has produced a culture that is dominated by a form of AI boosterism, and which [...] amounts to lobbying for Oracle" www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...